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Risks 473

Some risks draw more attention than their frequency warrants. Others barely register despite higher base rates. These entries show the widest divergence between common perception and available data.

473 risks reviewed. 157 flagged as commonly overestimated relative to base rate, 187 as underreported.

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412 risks with measured probability
1 in 10 1 in 100 1 in 1K 1 in 10K 1 in 100K 1 in 1M 1 in 10M 1 in 100M 1 in 1B certain rarer → Cosmetic surgery abroad risk — 1 in 10 Infant sugar/salt and adult disease — 1 in 10 Endometriosis — 1 in 10 Hair transplant Turkey risk — 1 in 10 Knee replacement — 1 in 10 Chronic painkillers — 1 in 10 Elderly abandonment — 1 in 9.1 Complete tooth loss — 1 in 9.1 Alzheimer's — 1 in 8.3 Sleep deprivation — 1 in 8.3 Smokeless tobacco — 1 in 8.3 Cycling w/o helmet — 1 in 8.0 Bruxism tooth damage — 1 in 7.7 Vision loss — 1 in 6.7 Hernia from lifting — 1 in 6.7 Hip fracture risk — 1 in 6.7 Regular drinking — 1 in 6.7 First heart attack — 1 in 5.9 Infertility — 1 in 5.7 5+ years paid LTC — 1 in 5.6 CTE (football) — 1 in 5.0 Major depression — 1 in 4.9 Hiking injury — 1 in 4.8 Infection from sharing food with child — 1 in 4.2 Lyme disease — 1 in 4.0 Loneliness & health — 1 in 3.8 Job loss & depression — 1 in 3.7 Inheriting AUD risk — 1 in 3.5 Alcohol use disorder — 1 in 3.4 Menopause CV risk acceleration — 1 in 3.0 Silent diabetes — 1 in 3.0 Flying with cold — 1 in 2.9 Tick illness (forest) — 1 in 2.9 Silent high cholesterol — 1 in 2.9 Grandparent loss in childhood — 1 in 2.8 Pacifier floor drop — 1 in 2.8 Drug-resistant infection — 1 in 2.6 No marrow match — 1 in 2.4 Nursing home admission — 1 in 2.2 Skipping dental checkups — 1 in 2.1 False-positive mammogram — 1 in 2.0 Regular smoking — 1 in 2.0 Travelers' diarrhea — 1 in 2.0 Adventure sports — 1 in 1.8 Family caregiver probability — 1 in 1.8 LTC need after 65 — 1 in 1.8 Widowhood probability — 1 in 1.7 Unprotected sex — 1 in 1.5 Silent hypertension — 1 in 1.3 Chronic back pain — 1 in 1.3 Hand hygiene — 1 in 1.0 Cancer (any) — 1 in 7.1 E-scooter no helmet — 1 in 4.5 E-bike no helmet — 1 in 4.0 Mishandled luggage — 1 in 3.7 Deer collision — 1 in 2.7 At-fault injury crash — 1 in 2.5 Flight cancellation — 1 in 1.8 Trip disruption: war or disaster — 1 in 1.7 Home burglary (global) — 1 in 9.1 Hitchhiking assault — 1 in 8.8 Mail check fraud — 1 in 7.7 Child sexual abuse — 1 in 6.8 Stalking — 1 in 6.2 Student sexual assault — 1 in 5.7 Domestic violence — 1 in 3.7 Night walk assault — 1 in 3.6 Bicycle theft — 1 in 2.9 Sexual assault — 1 in 2.9 Home burglary — 1 in 2.6 Sexual harassment (lifetime) — 1 in 1.6 Water scarcity — 1 in 2.5 Carrington-class solar storm — 1 in 1.9 WAIS tipping point — 1 in 1.1 Indoor cat escape harm — 1 in 10 Off-leash dog bite — 1 in 8.9 Rabbit dies in 4 years — 1 in 3.3 Dog bite (non-fatal) — 1 in 1.8 Hamster dies before teenager — 1 in 1.0 Vitamin D gap — 1 in 2.9 Undercooked food — 1 in 1.6 Raw meat cross-contamination — 1 in 1.4 Food left out — 1 in 1.2 AI voice scam — 1 in 2.9 Online scam loss — 1 in 2.5 Teen cyberbullying — 1 in 2.0 Kids & explicit content — 1 in 1.9 Data breach — 1 in 1.1 Miscarriage — 1 in 6.7 Teen suicide attempt — 1 in 5.6 Postpartum depression — 1 in 4.8 Painkiller before infant vaccination — 1 in 3.8 Excessive pregnancy weight — 1 in 2.6 Unvaxxed child & measles — 1 in 2.0 Elder fraud loss — 1 in 10 Pension fund collapse — 1 in 10 Personal bankruptcy — 1 in 10 Housing crash — 1 in 8.3 Crypto total loss — 1 in 6.7 IRS audit — 1 in 6.7 Visa overstay deportation — 1 in 5.6 Long term disability working age — 1 in 4.0 Student loan default — 1 in 3.8 Whistleblower retaliation — 1 in 3.2 Career obsolescence — 1 in 2.9 Forced job exit before retirement — 1 in 2.9 Retirement shortfall — 1 in 2.6 Divorce — 1 in 2.4 Burst pipe damage — 1 in 2.2 Workplace bullying — 1 in 2.1 Deportation (undocumented) — 1 in 1.8 Funeral cost shock — 1 in 1.8 Identity theft — 1 in 1.7 Credit card fraud — 1 in 1.5 School bullying — 1 in 1.5 Insurance claim denial — 1 in 1.4 Frontline soldier casualty — 1 in 1.3 Economic recession — 1 in 1.0 Stock market crash — 1 in 1.0 Hail roof damage — 1 in 3.0 Dry toilet paper harm — 1 in 100 Secondhand smoke — 1 in 91 Gaming disorder (adults) — 1 in 83 High-heel ER visit — 1 in 79 Child throwing object — 1 in 67 Medication reaction — 1 in 58 Cat litter toxoplasmosis — 1 in 48 Mental health LTD claim — 1 in 45 Drug overdose — 1 in 42 Benzo dependence — 1 in 40 Tap water lead — 1 in 40 Medication misuse — 1 in 35 Traumatic brain injury — 1 in 33 Hospital infection — 1 in 31 Air pollution — 1 in 29 End-stage kidney disease — 1 in 29 Traveler's diarrhea (water) — 1 in 26 Skiing injury — 1 in 26 Bipolar disorder — 1 in 23 Dental tourism complication — 1 in 20 Pet parasites — 1 in 20 Undiagnosed ADHD — 1 in 20 Adult-onset food allergy — 1 in 19 Indoor cooking smoke — 1 in 18 Non-Alzheimer's dementia — 1 in 17 Working-age disabling stroke — 1 in 17 Cannabis use disorder — 1 in 16 Stroke — 1 in 15 Parent death/disability — 1 in 14 Severe hearing loss — 1 in 14 Type 2 diabetes — 1 in 13 Appendicitis — 1 in 13 Untreated depression — 1 in 13 Untreated back pain disability — 1 in 13 Heart disease — 1 in 12 Medical error death — 1 in 12 Compulsive sexual behavior — 1 in 12 Eating disorder — 1 in 11 Hip replacement — 1 in 11 Kidney stones — 1 in 11 Sedentary lifestyle — 1 in 11 Salon infection — 1 in 11 Ovarian cancer — 1 in 91 Colorectal cancer — 1 in 77 Breast cancer — 1 in 59 Liver cancer — 1 in 59 Lung cancer — 1 in 56 Prostate cancer — 1 in 50 Melanoma (UV) — 1 in 29 Low-fiber CRC risk — 1 in 23 Red meat & CRC — 1 in 21 Charred meat & cancer — 1 in 20 Maintenance crash — 1 in 83 Driving on sedating meds — 1 in 77 Texting + driving — 1 in 56 Driving after cannabis — 1 in 53 Eating while driving — 1 in 53 Unbelted crash death — 1 in 53 Speeding 20% over limit — 1 in 48 Motorcycle no helmet — 1 in 45 Spaceflight (astronaut) — 1 in 42 Video watching + driving — 1 in 32 Drowsy driving — 1 in 26 E-scooter injury — 1 in 26 Cruise ship norovirus — 1 in 24 Driving at 0.10% BAC — 1 in 16 Catalytic converter theft — 1 in 83 Pickpocketed while traveling — 1 in 38 Stabbed in an assault — 1 in 37 Vehicle theft — 1 in 34 Street robbery / mugging — 1 in 26 Wrongful conviction — 1 in 24 Drink spiking — 1 in 17 Protest under autocracy — 1 in 12 AMOC collapse — 1 in 20 Sting anaphylaxis — 1 in 50 Cat collar injury — 1 in 25 Fish bone injury — 1 in 68 Restaurant food poisoning — 1 in 58 Vegetarian deficiency — 1 in 25 Intimate deepfake — 1 in 25 Social media problematic use — 1 in 13 Infant fall — 1 in 100 Childbirth death (SSA) — 1 in 55 Co-sleeping death — 1 in 43 Toddler stair fall — 1 in 37 Play swing & slide injury — 1 in 33 Autism diagnosis — 1 in 31 C-section complications — 1 in 29 Toy injury requiring ER (child) — 1 in 21 Preeclampsia — 1 in 20 Severe birth tearing — 1 in 17 Gestational diabetes — 1 in 13 Child fall head injury — 1 in 12 Sports betting financial ruin — 1 in 100 Fighter pilot death — 1 in 48 Commercial fishing career death — 1 in 45 Logging career death — 1 in 34 Dying without heir — 1 in 33 Medical bankruptcy — 1 in 25 Compulsive buying disorder — 1 in 20 Rental listing scam loss — 1 in 20 Mortgage foreclosure — 1 in 14 Musculoskeletal LTD claim — 1 in 14 Day-trading losses — 1 in 13 Extremist govt catastrophe — 1 in 13 Hurricane home destruction — 1 in 17 LASIK complications — 1 in 1,000 Infant pool submersion — 1 in 800 MS — 1 in 769 Workplace fatality — 1 in 690 Typhoid fever — 1 in 654 Unsafe imported products — 1 in 565 Brain aneurysm — 1 in 400 COVID-19 — 1 in 400 Fireworks injury — 1 in 385 Sickle cell disease — 1 in 365 Counterfeit medicine — 1 in 361 Spinal cord injury — 1 in 313 Childhood cancer diagnosis — 1 in 285 Next pandemic death — 1 in 208 Dengue (travel) — 1 in 200 Skipping daily showers — 1 in 200 Not scrubbing feet — 1 in 200 Marrow donation risk — 1 in 167 Schizophrenia — 1 in 143 Accidental fall — 1 in 135 Parkinson's — 1 in 125 Sudden death during exercise — 1 in 123 Suicide (US) — 1 in 121 Opioid addiction — 1 in 114 Tuberculosis (global) — 1 in 108 Radon cancer — 1 in 435 Testicular cancer — 1 in 250 Cervical cancer — 1 in 167 Pancreatic cancer — 1 in 125 Pedestrian death — 1 in 806 Motorcycle crash — 1 in 694 Boating drowning — 1 in 685 Driver kills pedestrian — 1 in 552 Phone-distracted walking injury — 1 in 400 EV battery fire — 1 in 333 Cyclist killed by car — 1 in 196 Hand-held phone call + driving — 1 in 143 Petrol car fire — 1 in 125 Self-driving car fatality — 1 in 115 Car crash — 1 in 105 Firefighter duty death — 1 in 455 Police duty death — 1 in 313 Homicide — 1 in 287 Pig-butchering scam — 1 in 106 Extreme heat — 1 in 333 Climate change death — 1 in 204 Swallowed bee/wasp — 1 in 500 Bat bite & rabies — 1 in 238 Mosquito-borne disease — 1 in 190 Food poisoning (global) — 1 in 317 Solar panel fire — 1 in 667 Untreated childhood scoliosis — 1 in 1,000 Child window fall — 1 in 855 Walker stair fall — 1 in 625 Baby walker injury — 1 in 455 Maternal mortality — 1 in 272 Untreated childhood flat feet — 1 in 250 Maternal age & birth defects — 1 in 200 Child death (<18) — 1 in 143 Caving career death — 1 in 167 EMS duty death — 1 in 794 Civilian war casualty — 1 in 499 Soldier in combat — 1 in 270 Mining career death — 1 in 214 Gambling financial ruin — 1 in 159 Wildfire home destruction — 1 in 120 Lightning home fire — 1 in 105 Malaria (travel) — 1 in 10,000 Infection from shared drink — 1 in 10,000 Chagas disease — 1 in 8,475 Wild berry fox tapeworm — 1 in 8,475 Schistosomiasis death — 1 in 6,667 Sudden death (young adult) — 1 in 3,922 Unsafe wiring — 1 in 3,390 Sepsis from wound — 1 in 2,857 Anesthesia awareness — 1 in 2,500 Heat stroke (outdoor) — 1 in 1,905 House fire — 1 in 1,818 Rabies from dogs — 1 in 1,449 Drowning — 1 in 1,379 Shallow-water diving SCI — 1 in 1,111 Choking — 1 in 1,099 EVALI vaping hospitalization — 1 in 1,064 Betel nut cancer — 1 in 1,290 Blood clot (flight) — 1 in 4,651 Killing a cyclist — 1 in 3,937 Teen road-crash death — 1 in 3,030 Child rear bike seat — 1 in 2,500 Child without restraint — 1 in 2,000 Fatal police encounter — 1 in 4,739 Honor killing — 1 in 2,381 Intimate-partner homicide — 1 in 1,767 Hurricane — 1 in 8,929 Drought famine death — 1 in 6,536 Blizzard death — 1 in 4,367 Earthquake — 1 in 3,802 Dog chocolate death — 1 in 2,000 Food poisoning (US) — 1 in 1,862 Fish mercury — 1 in 1,695 Phone/laptop battery fire — 1 in 1,136 SIDS — 1 in 7,143 Laundry pod ingestion — 1 in 6,494 Untreated infant hip dysplasia — 1 in 5,000 Pool drowning — 1 in 2,299 War (civilian) — 1 in 2,000 Fatal bee/wasp sting — 1 in 76,923 Anesthesia death — 1 in 50,000 Dog hot car death — 1 in 41,667 Anaphylaxis — 1 in 27,548 Chiropractic neck manipulation — 1 in 16,667 CO poisoning — 1 in 14,006 Hepatitis A (travel) — 1 in 12,500 Skipping allergy immunotherapy — 1 in 11,111 Acrylamide & cancer — 1 in 16,667 Bus crash — 1 in 100,000 Plane crash — 1 in 58,824 Child pedestrian (residential) — 1 in 45,455 Railroad crossing death — 1 in 20,704 Child bike trailer — 1 in 14,286 Acid attack — 1 in 89,286 Terrorism — 1 in 77,519 Child stranger abduction — 1 in 38,760 Stranger kidnapping — 1 in 35,211 Dowry death — 1 in 13,158 Accidental gun death — 1 in 11,299 Wildfire — 1 in 100,000 Tornado — 1 in 80,645 Tsunami — 1 in 52,632 Ocean drowning — 1 in 29,155 Flood — 1 in 20,202 Landslide death — 1 in 18,416 Supervolcano eruption — 1 in 12,376 Crocodile attack — 1 in 84,746 Bee sting — 1 in 78,927 Fatal scorpion sting — 1 in 26,110 Plastic container leaching — 1 in 16,949 Infant in car seat — 1 in 64,935 Bouncer chair fall — 1 in 60,606 Toddler choking — 1 in 50,000 Unsupervised infant choking — 1 in 50,000 Magnet ingestion — 1 in 12,048 Snorkeling death — 1 in 21,739 Pet in transport — 1 in 20,000 Landmine or UXO injury — 1 in 14,728 Vaccine reaction — 1 in 763,359 Aluminum & Alzheimer's — 1 in 169,492 Residential gas leak — 1 in 140,845 Child hot car death — 1 in 102,041 Glyphosate & cancer — 1 in 1,000,000 Teflon cookware cancer — 1 in 169,492 Roller coaster injury — 1 in 312,500 Cruise ship accident — 1 in 188,679 Ferry sinking — 1 in 133,333 Turbulence injury — 1 in 114,943 School shooting — 1 in 192,308 Mass shooting — 1 in 113,636 Nuclear accident — 1 in 833,333 Avalanche — 1 in 210,526 Lightning — 1 in 209,205 Snake bite — 1 in 884,956 Spider bite — 1 in 833,333 Hippo attack — 1 in 564,972 Dog bite — 1 in 142,045 Pesticide residue — 1 in 1,000,000 Dirty can illness — 1 in 200,000 PLA bioplastic harm — 1 in 169,492 Charger left plugged in — 1 in 200,000 Infant swing death — 1 in 714,286 Child blind cord strangulation — 1 in 416,667 Child plastic bag suffocation — 1 in 263,158 Button battery — 1 in 250,000 Inclined sleeper death — 1 in 238,095 Elevator/escalator death — 1 in 188,324 Japanese encephalitis (travel) — 1 in 2,000,000 Kid + front airbag — 1 in 10,000,000 Asteroid impact — 1 in 1,351,351 Banana spider eggs — 1 in 10,000,000 Shark attack — 1 in 5,681,818 Bear attack — 1 in 3,787,879 Wild berry poisoning — 1 in 2,222,222 Space debris hits property — 1 in 10,000,000 Piranha attack — 1 in 135,135,135 Phone at gas pump — 1 in 1,000,000,000 Phone on plane — 1 in 1,000,000,000 Alien contact — 1 in 169,491,525
Lottery jackpot 1 in 95,238
Death·TechDirect

Phone at gas pump

What are the odds of a phone igniting fuel at a gas station?

Death·TechDirect

Phone on plane

What are the odds of a phone crashing an airplane?

Existential·OtherDirect

Alien contact

What are the odds of an alien invasion or first contact in your lifetime?

Death·AnimalDirect

Piranha attack

What are the odds of being killed by piranhas?

Inconvenience·AnimalDirect

Banana spider eggs

What are the odds of finding dangerous spider eggs in a banana?

Death·TransportDirect

Kid + front airbag

What are the odds of a child being killed by a front-seat airbag?

Existential·OtherDirect

Space debris hits property

What are the odds that reentering space debris damages your property?

Death·AnimalDirect

Shark attack

What are the odds of being killed by a shark?

Death·AnimalDirect

Bear attack

What are the odds of being killed by a bear?

Death·foodDirect

Wild berry poisoning

What are the odds of dying from eating a misidentified toxic wild berry?

Recoverable injury·HealthDirect

Japanese encephalitis (travel)

What are the odds of contracting Japanese encephalitis as a traveler to Asia?

Existential·NaturalDirect

Asteroid impact

What are the odds of dying from an asteroid or comet impact?

Chronic illness·cancer

Glyphosate & cancer

What are the odds that dietary glyphosate (Roundup) exposure will give you cancer?

Inconvenience·food

Pesticide residue

What are the odds that pesticide residue on conventional produce will harm your health?

Death·AnimalDirect

Snake bite

What are the odds of being killed by a venomous snake?

Death·NaturalDirect

Nuclear accident

What are the odds of being harmed by a nuclear power plant accident?

Recoverable injury·AnimalDirect

Spider bite

What are the odds of a medically significant spider bite?

Recoverable injury·HealthDirect

Vaccine reaction

What are the odds of a serious adverse event from a routine vaccine?

Death·kidsDirect

Infant swing death

What are the odds an infant in a powered swing or rocker dies from strangulation or suffocation?

Death·AnimalDirect

Hippo attack

What are the odds of being killed by a hippopotamus?

Death·kidsDirect

Child blind cord strangulation

What are the odds of a child being strangled by window blind or roller shade cords?

Recoverable injury·TransportDirect

Roller coaster injury

What are the odds of serious injury on a roller coaster?

Death·kidsDirect

Child plastic bag suffocation

What are the odds of a child suffocating from playing with a plastic bag?

Permanent harm·kidsDirect

Button battery

What are the odds of a serious injury from a child swallowing a button battery?

Death·kids

Inclined sleeper death

What were the odds an infant placed in an inclined sleeper (Rock 'n Play and similar) died from positional asphyxia?

Death·NaturalDirect

Avalanche

What are the odds of dying in an avalanche?

Death·NaturalDirect

Lightning

What are the odds of being killed by lightning?

Death·TechDirect

Charger left plugged in

What are the odds of a house fire from leaving a charger plugged into the wall?

Inconvenience·foodDirect

Dirty can illness

What are the odds of getting sick from drinking out of an unwashed soda can?

Death·CrimeDirect

School shooting

What are the odds of a US student being killed in a school shooting?

Death·TransportDirect

Cruise ship accident

What are the odds of dying in a cruise ship accident?

Death·OtherDirect

Elevator/escalator death

What are the odds of dying in an elevator or escalator accident?

Chronic illness·Health

Aluminum & Alzheimer's

What are the odds of getting Alzheimer's disease from cooking with aluminum pots or foil?

Inconvenience·food

PLA bioplastic harm

What are the odds of getting sick from PLA bioplastic or "compostable" food packaging?

Chronic illness·cancerDirect

Teflon cookware cancer

What are the odds of getting cancer from nonstick (Teflon) cookware?

Death·AnimalDirect

Dog bite

What are the odds of being killed by a dog?

Death·HealthDirect

Residential gas leak

What are the odds of dying in a residential gas leak explosion or fire?

Death·TransportDirect

Ferry sinking

What are the odds of dying in a ferry accident?

Recoverable injury·TransportDirect

Turbulence injury

What are the odds of serious injury from in-flight turbulence?

Death·CrimeDirect

Mass shooting

What are the odds of dying in a mass shooting in the US?

Permanent harm·HealthDirect

Child hot car death

What are the odds of a child dying from being left in a hot car?

Death·TransportDirect

Bus crash

What are the odds of dying in a bus crash?

Death·NaturalDirect

Wildfire

What are the odds of being killed by a wildfire?

Permanent harm·CrimeDirect

Acid attack

What are the odds of being a victim of an acid attack?

Death·AnimalDirect

Crocodile attack

What are the odds of a fatal crocodile or alligator attack?

Death·NaturalDirect

Tornado

What are the odds of being killed by a tornado?

Death·AnimalDirect

Bee sting

What are the odds of being killed by a bee, wasp, or hornet sting?

Death·CrimeDirect

Terrorism

What are the odds of dying in a terrorist attack in the US?

Death·HealthDirect

Fatal bee/wasp sting

What are the odds of dying from a bee, wasp, or hornet sting?

Death·kidsDirect

Infant in car seat

What are the odds of an infant choking while reclined in a car seat?

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