What are the lifetime odds of needing a hip replacement?
Evidence quality 4.38/5
Eight-dimension review score against the quality rubric . Each dimension scored 1–5.
- D1 Source grounding
- 3/5
- D2 Source authority
- 5/5
- D3 Arithmetic
- 4/5
- D4 Uncertainty
- 5/5
- D5 Scope
- 4/5
- D6 Prose
- 5/5
- D7 Perception honesty
- 4/5
- D8 Caveat completeness
- 5/5
Lifetime probability · lifetime, US adult
1 in 11
9.0% lifetime chance
Most people underestimate this.
range 1 in 17 to 1 in 7.7
● your factors — click this risk ▾ to reveal
≈ As likely as
Perceived
Most people think of hip replacement as something that happens to a small minority of elderly patients — a dramatic last resort for severe arthritis or a fall. Awareness of how common the procedure is tends to be low, particularly among younger adults. Because hip replacement is an elective, planned surgery rather than an emergency, it does not generate the same fear as acute events, and its high frequency relative to other major surgeries is not widely appreciated.
Rough estimate: ~1 in 20 lifetime feels about right to most people
Source: editorial intuition, not polled
Actual
~5.26% of US adults age 80 have had a total hip replacement
US adults, Olmsted County population-based study (Maradit Kremers 2015)
Show derivation
Maradit Kremers et al. (2015, J Bone Joint Surg Am) report a prevalence of 5.26% for total hip arthroplasty (THA) among US adults reaching age 80. This figure represents the cumulative incidence through age 80. A UK population-based study (Culliford et al. 2012) estimated the mortality-adjusted lifetime risk of hip replacement as 11.6% for women and 7.1% for men at age 50 — similar in methodology but using British procedure rates. The Maradit Kremers 2015 data are preferred for a US-specific estimate. Given that the Olmsted County cohort shows 5.26% prevalence by age 80 and that incidence continues through the remaining years of life (80+), the lifetime risk extends somewhat beyond 5.26%. Applying a conservative adjustment for post-80 incidence and accounting for increasing US THA volumes since the study period, a lifetime estimate of ~9% (1 in 11) is reasonable for a US adult born today. Women have higher lifetime risk (~10–12%) than men (~6–8%). Uncertainty range 0.06–0.13 reflects sex differences and increasing procedure rates.
Caveats: The 9% lifetime estimate reflects procedure utilization and will rise as the US …
The 9% lifetime estimate reflects procedure utilization and will rise as the US population ages and as obesity rates remain elevated; Kurtz et al. (2007) projected THA volumes could reach ~572,000 procedures per year by 2030. The Olmsted County cohort (Maradit Kremers 2015) is the most rigorous US population-based source but was collected in 2010 — annual THA volumes have increased substantially since then. The UK lifetime risk estimates (Culliford 2012: 11% women, 7% men) are based on lower US-equivalent procedure rates and provide a useful lower bound. The 9% point estimate is best understood as the current-generation estimate for a US adult reaching age 80; younger adults born today may face a somewhat higher lifetime risk due to increasing obesity prevalence and expanding surgical indications. This entry covers primary (first-time) THA only; revision arthroplasty is a separate event.
Risks at similar odds
Other risks with roughly the same likelihood — useful for calibration.
End-stage kidney disease
What are the lifetime odds of developing end-stage kidney disease requiring dialysis or transplant?
Recently viewed on this device
Stored locally — clear anytime.
Pick challenger
Hip replacement is far more common than most people realize. Population-based data from the Rochester Epidemiology Project (Maradit Kremers et al. 2015) show that 5.26% of US adults reaching age 80 have already had a total hip arthroplasty — and because the procedure remains an option into the 90s, the true lifetime risk is somewhat higher still. A UK general-practice cohort estimated the mortality-adjusted lifetime risk at roughly 11% for women and 7% for men at age 50, figures that are broadly consistent with US trends accounting for higher American procedure utilization rates. Blending sex and adjusting for post-80 incidence, approximately 1 in 11 US adults can expect to undergo a primary hip replacement at some point in their life.
The procedure has become routine rather than dramatic. The AAOS American Joint Replacement Registry captured over 3.7 million validated hip and knee arthroplasty procedures between 2012 and 2023 at nearly 1,500 surgical centers. Annual THA volumes in the US have been rising steadily and are projected to continue rising as the baby-boom cohort enters peak-risk ages and as surgical indications have expanded to younger, more active patients. The average age at first THA has been declining — a meaningful share of procedures now occur in adults under 65 — partly because obesity accelerates hip osteoarthritis onset by years.
The dominant underlying cause is osteoarthritis of the hip, which accumulates silently over decades before triggering the surgical threshold. Developmental hip dysplasia accounts for roughly a quarter of all THA procedures in younger patients. Women face roughly 40% higher lifetime risk than men, reflecting both higher OA prevalence and the contribution of DDH. The lifetime risk is not distributed uniformly across the population: obesity, strenuous physical occupations, and hip dysplasia substantially elevate individual risk, while maintaining a healthy weight is the single most modifiable protective factor.
Claim ledger
Every number below is what each source reported, with the verbatim quote we relied on and how we arrived at our figure. Click any link to verify directly.
-
[1] Maradit Kremers H et al., J Bone Joint Surg Am — Prevalence of Total Hip and Knee Replacement in the United States
Prevalence of Total Hip and Knee Replacement in the United StatesSee all 2 Likelier entries citing this source →
- Statistic
Prevalence of total hip replacement (THA) in the US population was 0.83% overall in 2010; by age 80 it reached 5.26%. Women had higher prevalence than men at all ages.- Excerpt
“"[Paraphrase from abstract — full text paywalled] The 2010 prevalence of total hip and total knee replacement among the total U.S. population was 0.83% and 1.52%, respectively, with prevalence being higher among women than among men and increasing with age, reaching 5.26% for total hip replacement and 10.38% for total knee replacement at eighty years." ”
- Source data from
- 2015-09-02
- Accessed
- 2026-05-14 · archived copy
- Calculation
- Prevalence at age 80 = 5.26% for THA. This represents cumulative incidence through age 80 among the US population. Because THA incidence continues after age 80 and because annual THA volumes have increased since 2010, the lifetime risk from age 18 to death is estimated at ~9%. The Olmsted County cohort is a well-characterized, racially diverse population that closely tracks US national demographics.
- Independence
- Maradit Kremers 2015 used the Rochester Epidemiology Project (Olmsted County, MN) population-based medical records linkage — entirely independent of the AAOS registry administrative data, which captures only subset of procedures at participating centers.
-
[2] Culliford D et al., Osteoarthritis and Cartilage — The lifetime risk of total hip and knee arthroplasty: results from the UK general practice research database
The lifetime risk of total hip and knee arthroplasty: results from the UK general practice research database- Statistic
Mortality-adjusted lifetime risk of total hip replacement at age 50: 11.6% for women, 7.1% for men (UK general practice database, 2005 procedure rates).- Excerpt
“"[Paraphrase from abstract — full text paywalled] The estimated mortality-adjusted lifetime risk of total hip replacement at age 50 for the year 2005 was 11.6% for women and 7.1% for men. The lifetime risk at age 50 years of undergoing hip replacement is approximately 11% for women and 7% for men." ”
- Source data from
- 2012-03-01
- Accessed
- 2026-05-14 · archived copy
- Calculation
- UK lifetime risks are somewhat lower than projected US risks (higher US obesity rates and more procedure utilization). Used to validate the sex-disaggregated direction of effect and magnitude. Not used as primary point estimate.
- Independence
- UK General Practice Research Database draws on primary-care electronic records from England and Wales, entirely separate from the US Olmsted County cohort and AAOS registry data.
-
[3] American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons (AAOS) — Highlights of the 2024 American Joint Replacement Registry Annual Report
Highlights of the 2024 American Joint Replacement Registry Annual ReportSee all 2 Likelier entries citing this source →
- Statistic
AJRR has captured 4.3 million hip and knee arthroplasty procedures from 2012 to 2023 across 1,447 member sites; primary THA comprises 32.4% of captured procedures.- Excerpt
“"The 2024 AJRR Annual Report contains 3,715,320 validated primary and revision THA and TKA procedures performed during years 2012 to 2023, with primary THA comprising 32.4% of procedures captured. The AJRR remains the largest orthopaedic and joint arthroplasty registry in the world by annual procedure volume." ”
- Source data from
- 2024-11-12
- Accessed
- 2026-05-14 · archived copy
- Calculation
- 32.4% of 3,715,320 validated procedures over 12 years = ~1.2 million THAs captured in the registry over that period. Used to confirm ongoing high annual volume and the increasing utilization trend. Not used as the primary probability estimate.
- Independence
- AAOS AJRR is a voluntary registry of participating US surgical centers using administrative and clinical data. Methodologically independent of the population-based Olmsted County cohort and UK general practice database.