What are the odds of not having enough money to retire comfortably?
Evidence quality 4.63/5
Eight-dimension review score against the quality rubric . Each dimension scored 1–5.
- D1 Source grounding
- 5/5
- D2 Source authority
- 5/5
- D3 Arithmetic
- 4/5
- D4 Uncertainty
- 4/5
- D5 Scope
- 4/5
- D6 Prose
- 5/5
- D7 Perception honesty
- 5/5
- D8 Caveat completeness
- 5/5
Lifetime probability · lifetime, US adult
1 in 2.6
39% lifetime chance
range 1 in 3.3 to 1 in 1.8
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≈ As likely as
Perceived
Retirement savings adequacy is the single most persistent financial anxiety in American consumer surveys. Gallup has tracked it for over two decades, and it has ranked first or second among financial worries in every year measured. As of April 2025, 59% of Americans report worrying about not having enough money for retirement, with 71% of nonretired adults at least moderately worried and 42% very worried. Among lower-income nonretirees, a record-high 88% express worry. The fear is not irrational panic — it tracks a real gap — but it is amplified by round-number savings targets (e.g., "$1 million") that may overstate the need for many households, and by media coverage that emphasizes averages (skewed by high savers) rather than medians.
Rough estimate: ~60% of Americans worried
Actual
~39% of working-age households at risk (NRRI 2022 SCF)
US working-age households (2022 SCF)
Show derivation
The National Retirement Risk Index (NRRI) from the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, updated with 2022 Survey of Consumer Finances data, finds that 39% of working-age households are "at risk" of being unable to maintain their pre-retirement standard of living even if they work to age 65 and annuitize all assets including home equity via a reverse mortgage. This 39% is the NRRI's lowest reading since inception in 2004 (down from 47% in 2019), driven largely by soaring home prices (+22% real, 2019-2022). Because the NRRI assumes households take a reverse mortgage — something fewer than 2% actually do — the 39% figure is best understood as a lower-bound estimate. Without the home equity assumption, the share at risk rises to roughly 50%. The central estimate of 0.39 uses the published NRRI with home equity included; uncertainty brackets the range from the optimistic NRRI reading to the more realistic scenario excluding home equity and accounting for the fact that the 2022 SCF captured a historically unusual housing boom.
Caveats: The 39% NRRI figure uses a specific definition of "shortfall" — falling more tha…
The 39% NRRI figure uses a specific definition of "shortfall" — falling more than 10% below a target replacement rate derived from pre-retirement spending. It assumes households work to 65 and take a reverse mortgage, which almost nobody actually does. Without the reverse-mortgage assumption, the share at risk rises to roughly 50%. The NRRI also captured a historically unusual moment: the 2022 SCF reflected peak pandemic-era home prices and stock market gains. The improvement from 47% to 39% may not persist. "Comfortable retirement" is inherently subjective — research consistently shows that spending declines 5-15% in the first few years of retirement and continues declining with age, meaning many households that look "at risk" by pre-retirement spending standards may adapt successfully. Social Security provides a floor that prevents destitution for most Americans, replacing 36-40% of pre-retirement earnings for average workers. The fear is overrated for high earners (who have substantial buffers even if below benchmarks) and underrated for low earners (who have the smallest savings AND the least awareness of the problem).
Regional breakdown
The headline figure averages across very different populations. Here’s how the probability varies by geography or context:
| Region / context | Lifetime probability | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Bottom income third | 1 in 1.8 |
Low-income households have the least savings and highest NRRI risk; many rely almost entirely on Social Security |
| Middle income third | 1 in 2.5 |
Middle-income households are the core of the NRRI shortfall — enough income to expect a standard of living above Social Security, not enough savings to fund it |
| Top income third | 1 in 5.0 |
High earners are less likely to fall short in absolute terms, but the NRRI still finds ~20% at risk, often due to high pre-retirement spending and low savings rates relative to income |
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About 39% of US working-age households are on track to fall short of maintaining their pre-retirement standard of living, according to the National Retirement Risk Index from the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. That figure — updated with 2022 Survey of Consumer Finances data — is actually the lowest reading since the NRRI began in 2004, down from 47% in 2019. The improvement was driven almost entirely by soaring home prices (+22% in real terms between 2019 and 2022), not by a surge in savings behavior. And the NRRI assumes households tap their home equity through a reverse mortgage at retirement — something fewer than 2% actually do. Drop that assumption and the share at risk climbs back toward 50%.
The perception roughly matches the reality, which is unusual for this site. Gallup’s long-running financial worry tracker finds that 59% of Americans worry about not having enough for retirement, with 71% of nonretired adults at least moderately worried. The EBRI Retirement Confidence Survey tells a similar story from the other direction: 67% of workers say they are confident they will have enough, leaving 33% not confident. The gap between the NRRI’s 39% “at risk” and EBRI’s 33% “not confident” hints at a troubling asymmetry: some at-risk households do not know they are at risk.
The raw savings numbers make the gap concrete. The Federal Reserve’s 2022 SCF puts the median retirement account balance for households aged 55-64 at roughly $185,000. Fidelity’s widely cited guideline calls for 10x annual salary by age 67. With median household income around $80,000, that target is approximately $800,000. The gap between $185,000 and $800,000 looks catastrophic — but the Fidelity benchmark assumes savings alone should replace 45% of income, on top of Social Security. For a median earner, Social Security already replaces 36-40% of pre-retirement earnings, and household spending typically declines 5-15% in the first years of retirement as commuting, work clothing, payroll taxes, and mortgage payments fall away. The $800,000 target is conservative by design; many households with paid-off homes and modest lifestyles can maintain their standard of living with substantially less.
None of this means the problem is imaginary. The 2025 Social Security Trustees Report projects that the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund will be depleted by 2033, after which ongoing payroll tax revenue would cover only 77% of scheduled benefits. A 23% benefit cut would push the NRRI’s share “at risk” up by an estimated 5-10 percentage points. The households most exposed are those in the bottom income third, who rely on Social Security for the vast majority of their retirement income and have median retirement savings close to zero.
The distribution matters more than the average. High earners who save even modestly through employer plans are unlikely to face destitution. Low earners without access to a 401(k) — roughly half of private-sector workers at any given time lack an employer plan — face a genuine risk of a sharp living-standard decline. The fear is calibrated at the population level but poorly calibrated at the individual level: overrated for the anxious upper-middle class reading personal-finance blogs, underrated for the lower-income workers who rarely engage with retirement planning at all.
Related tidbits
39% of retirees face a savings shortfall. 4% of adults experience medical bankruptcy. The slow-motion crisis is 10x more probable than the acute one. Neither trends on social media.
About 39% of US retirees will experience a meaningful savings shortfall. The probability is higher than most working-age adults estimate, yet retirement planning consistently ranks below more dramatic financial fears.
Claim ledger
Every number below is what each source reported, with the verbatim quote we relied on and how we arrived at our figure. Click any link to verify directly.
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[1] Center for Retirement Research at Boston College — The National Retirement Risk Index: An Update from the 2022 SCF
The National Retirement Risk Index: An Update from the 2022 SCF- Statistic
39% of working-age households are at risk of being unable to maintain their pre-retirement standard of living, down from 47% in 2019- Excerpt
“"Between 2019 and 2022, the NRRI dropped substantially — from 47 to 39 percent. The share of households at risk dropped to the lowest level since the Index started in 2004, largely due to rising home values." ”
- Source data from
- 2024-02-01
- Accessed
- 2026-04-19 · archived copy
- Calculation
- The NRRI is the primary source for the native and normalized estimates. It compares projected replacement rates (from Social Security, pensions, 401(k)s, and home equity via reverse mortgage) against a target replacement rate derived from pre-retirement spending. Households falling more than 10% below their target are classified as "at risk." The 39% figure is used directly as the lifetime probability because the NRRI is already a lifetime-horizon measure — it asks whether a household will fall short over its entire retirement, not in any single year.
- Independence
- The NRRI is the canonical academic measure of US retirement preparedness. It uses the Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finances microdata as its input, making it methodologically independent from survey-based confidence measures (EBRI, Gallup) and from industry benchmarks (Fidelity, Vanguard).
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[2] Employee Benefit Research Institute / Greenwald Research — 35th Annual Retirement Confidence Survey (2025)
35th Annual Retirement Confidence Survey (2025)- Statistic
67% of workers are at least somewhat confident they will have enough money to live comfortably in retirement; 33% are not confident- Excerpt
“"67% of workers are confident they will have enough money to live comfortably throughout retirement, and 78% of retirees are confident. Workers' confidence remained unchanged between January 2024 and January 2025." ”
- Source data from
- 2025-04-29
- Accessed
- 2026-04-19 · archived copy
- Calculation
- The EBRI RCS provides a perception-side cross-check. If 33% of workers report not being confident, that is reasonably close to the NRRI's 39% "at risk" — though the two measures are not directly comparable. The EBRI figure is self-assessed confidence; the NRRI is a modeled shortfall based on balance-sheet data. The gap (33% not confident vs 39% at risk) suggests that some at-risk households are unaware of their shortfall, consistent with the literature on financial literacy and retirement planning.
- Independence
- EBRI's Retirement Confidence Survey uses a nationally representative consumer survey panel, methodologically independent from the NRRI's balance-sheet modeling approach and from Gallup's financial-worry tracking polls.
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[3] Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System — Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) — 2022
Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) — 2022- Statistic
Median retirement account balance for households aged 55-64: approximately $185,000 (2022 dollars)- Excerpt
“"The Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) is a triennial cross-sectional survey of U.S. families. The survey provides detailed information on household balance sheets, pensions, income, and demographic characteristics." ”
- Source data from
- 2023-10-01
- Accessed
- 2026-04-19 · archived copy
- Calculation
- The SCF's median retirement balance of ~$185,000 for households aged 55-64 provides a concrete reality check against savings guidelines. Fidelity's widely cited benchmark is 10x salary by age 67; with median household income of ~$80,000 (2022), the target would be ~$800,000. The gap between $185,000 (actual median) and $800,000 (guideline) is enormous. However, the Fidelity guideline targets 45% income replacement from savings alone, on top of Social Security. Households with modest pre-retirement spending, a paid-off home, or higher-than-average Social Security benefits may need substantially less than 10x. The SCF is the upstream dataset that feeds the NRRI model.
- Independence
- The SCF is the primary federal data source on household wealth. The NRRI uses SCF microdata, so the two sources are linked — but the SCF provides the raw balance data while the NRRI provides the modeled shortfall assessment.
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[4] Social Security Administration — The 2025 OASDI Trustees Report
The 2025 OASDI Trustees Report- Statistic
Social Security replaces approximately 36-40% of pre-retirement earnings for average earners; OASI trust fund projected to be depleted by 2033, after which 77% of scheduled benefits would be payable from ongoing revenue- Excerpt
“"The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund will be able to pay 100 percent of total scheduled benefits until 2033, at which time the fund's reserves will become depleted and continuing program income will be sufficient to pay 77 percent of total scheduled benefits." ”
- Source data from
- 2025-06-18
- Accessed
- 2026-04-19 · archived copy
- Calculation
- Social Security is the single largest source of retirement income for most Americans and replaces roughly 36-40% of pre-retirement earnings for average earners (higher replacement rates for lower earners, lower for higher earners). The 2033 OASI trust fund depletion date does not mean benefits go to zero — ongoing payroll taxes would still fund about 77% of scheduled benefits. This is relevant because the NRRI model assumes full scheduled Social Security benefits; a ~23% cut would increase the share of households at risk by an estimated 5-10 percentage points. The entry uses the current- law benefit assumption consistent with the published NRRI.
- Independence
- The SSA Trustees Report is the official government projection for Social Security solvency, independent from the NRRI modeling at Boston College and from the EBRI confidence surveys.