Skip to content
Likelier
Health · reviewed 2026-05-24

What are the odds of contracting hepatitis A as an unvaccinated traveler to an endemic region?

Evidence quality 4.25/5

Eight-dimension review score against the quality rubric . Each dimension scored 1–5.

D1 Source grounding
4/5
D2 Source authority
5/5
D3 Arithmetic
4/5
D4 Uncertainty
4/5
D5 Scope
5/5
D6 Prose
4/5
D7 Perception honesty
3/5
D8 Caveat completeness
5/5
Average 4.25/5
Direct evidence

Lifetime probability · lifetime, activity-specific

1 in 12,500

0.008% lifetime chance

range 1 in 33,333 to 1 in 7,143

lifetime, activity-specific each band = 10× rarer → zoomed to your factors See full scale →
certain 1 in 1K 1 in 1M 1 in 1B
1 in 1,250 1 in 1,250,000

● your factors — click this risk ▾ to reveal

≈ As likely as

A single stylized vaccination record card on a flat surface, muted tones, flat vector illustration.

Perceived

Hepatitis A occupies an unusual slot in pre-travel anxiety: it sits on most travel-clinic recommendation lists for any trip outside the wealthy industrialized core, the vaccine is cheap and >97% effective after a single dose, and the CDC describes it as among the most common vaccine-preventable infections acquired during travel. The framing travelers receive is "you almost certainly want this vaccine for any non-Western destination", and unlike Japanese encephalitis or rabies the framing actually matches the underlying numbers. We haven't found a rigorous recent survey that isolates "fear of hepatitis A" from generic travel-disease worry, so the perceived side here is marked as editorial intuition rather than polled data. The working prior we observe in travel clinics is "this is a real risk worth a $100 shot" — and for an unvaccinated nonimmune adult on a two-week trip to a high or intermediate endemicity country, that prior is roughly calibrated.

Rough estimate: most unvaccinated travelers heading to an endemic country guess a per-trip risk on the order of 1-in-1,000 to 1-in-10,000

Source: editorial intuition, not polled

Actual

~8 cases per 100,000 nonimmune travelers per 2-week trip

Unvaccinated, nonimmune adult travelers from developed countries to high or intermediate hepatitis A endemicity regions

Show derivation

Mütsch et al. (2006), the canonical traveler hepatitis A incidence study, reports 6.0–28.0 cases per 100,000 person-months abroad for travelers presumed to be nonimmune visiting countries of high or intermediate transmission risk. Converted to a typical 2-week trip (0.5 person-months), this is 3–14 cases per 100,000 travelers per trip; the point estimate of 8 × 10⁻⁵ (~1 in 12,000) is the midpoint of that range. The scope is activity_specific_lifetime: per traveler-trip, not per US-adult-lifetime. The CDC Yellow Book and the ACIP 2020 MMWR recommendation describe unvaccinated travelers to high or intermediate endemicity countries as facing a "substantial risk", and Mütsch's figures sit roughly 10–50× below older 1990s estimates (the Steffen-era ~3 per 1,000 per month) thanks to improved sanitation, water infrastructure, and tourist-zone hygiene across most destination countries. The uncertainty band reflects the population in the headline (nonimmune, 2-week, high/intermediate endemicity); cross-population variation (vaccinated travelers, long-rural stays, low-endemicity destinations, VFR families) is captured in regional_breakdown and personal_factor_multipliers.

Caveats: The ~1-in-12,000 figure applies specifically to an unvaccinated, nonimmune adult…

The ~1-in-12,000 figure applies specifically to an unvaccinated, nonimmune adult on a roughly 2-week trip to a high or intermediate endemicity country (most of South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, Mexico, Central America, and large parts of South America and the Middle East). Vaccinated travelers face a risk roughly two orders of magnitude lower; visitors to Japan, Korea, Western Europe, North America, Australia, or New Zealand face essentially zero risk regardless of vaccination status. The number is per-trip, not per-adult-lifetime, and is not a substitute for itinerary-specific advice from a qualified travel-medicine clinician. The Mütsch surveillance pipeline counts laboratory-confirmed cases diagnosed after return; mild and asymptomatic infections are systematically undercounted, so the true exposure rate is somewhat higher than the reported case rate — though for symptomatic travel-related illness (the version most readers care about) the published numbers are the relevant ones. This entry measures the risk of contracting hepatitis A, not of dying from it: the overall case fatality rate is <1%, but it climbs to roughly 2% in adults aged 40+ and higher again in people with underlying liver disease, so a per-trip death estimate for an older unvaccinated traveler sits roughly two orders of magnitude below the incidence figure on this page.

Regional breakdown

The headline figure averages across very different populations. Here’s how the probability varies by geography or context:

Region / context Lifetime probability Notes
Vaccinated traveler (1 or 2 doses, any destination, any duration) 1 in 500,000 ACIP: 97-100% seroprotection after 1 dose, 100% after 2 doses, >97% durability at 20 years. Documented vaccine-failure cases in travelers are rare in the published literature.
Unvaccinated nonimmune adult, 2-week trip, intermediate endemicity (e.g. parts of Eastern Europe, Caribbean) 1 in 33,333 Lower edge of the Mütsch 6-28 per 100,000 person-month band, applied to a 2-week trip.
Unvaccinated nonimmune adult, 2-week trip, high endemicity (South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, Mexico, Central America) 1 in 12,500 Midpoint of the Mütsch nonimmune-traveler range; matches the headline figure on this page.
Unvaccinated nonimmune adult, 2-week trip, East Asia tourist circuit 1 in 100,000 Askling et al.: ~2 cases per 100,000 person-months for unprotected travelers to East Asia, an order of magnitude below the headline.
Unvaccinated nonimmune long-term traveler or expatriate (1+ month rural, high endemicity) 1 in 2,000 Upper edge of Mütsch nonimmune range (28 per 100,000 person-months) scaled to ~1.5+ months. CDC explicitly notes 'cumulative risk for hepatitis A and typhoid fever' justifies vaccination for long-term travelers.
Unvaccinated nonimmune VFR (visiting friends and relatives) traveler with children in endemic area 1 in 1,250 Askling et al.: VFR travelers represent 70-91% of imported cases in high-risk regions; children aged 0-14 show highest incidence (3.1/100,000 trips, 88% VFR). Reflects food/water exposure in non-tourist settings.
Endemic-country susceptible child (for reference — not a traveler figure) 1 in 1.1 WHO: in low- and middle-income countries with poor sanitation, ~90% of children are infected before age 10. Native exposure anchor, not a traveler risk.

Risks at similar odds

Other risks with roughly the same likelihood — useful for calibration.

Health

Malaria (travel)

What are the odds of contracting malaria as a traveler to an endemic country?

Health

Chagas disease

What are the odds of contracting Chagas disease in Latin America?

Health

Schistosomiasis death

What are the odds of dying from schistosomiasis?

Health

What are the odds of getting a fatal fox tapeworm infection from eating wild berries?

What are the odds of getting a fatal fox tapeworm infection from eating wild berries?

Health

Anaphylaxis

What are the odds of dying from a severe allergic reaction?

Health

CO poisoning

What are the odds of dying from carbon monoxide poisoning?

Health

Chiropractic neck manipulation

What are the odds of stroke or serious injury from chiropractic neck manipulation?

Health

Japanese encephalitis (travel)

What are the odds of contracting Japanese encephalitis as a traveler to Asia?

More Travel risks: Mishandled luggage Flight cancellation Blood clot (flight) Chagas disease Child bike trailer +27 more
Compare to:

Hepatitis A is one of the few travel-clinic concerns where the standard recommendation actually matches the standard risk. The canonical traveler incidence study — Mütsch and colleagues’ 2006 paper in Clinical Infectious Diseases, drawing on 16 years of Swiss surveillance — puts the rate at 6 to 28 cases per 100,000 person-months abroad for unvaccinated nonimmune travelers visiting countries of high or intermediate endemicity. Applied to a typical two-week trip, that works out to roughly 1 in 12,000, with a band of about 1 in 30,000 at the low end and 1 in 7,000 at the high end. A separate Swedish surveillance dataset published by Askling et al. in 2009 reaches the same order of magnitude through an entirely independent pipeline, and the CDC Yellow Book and the ACIP’s 2020 MMWR recommendation both describe the risk to unvaccinated travelers to these regions as “substantial”. The headline figure is roughly 10 to 50 times lower than the 1990s Steffen-era estimates that still appear in older travel-medicine textbooks, reflecting genuine improvements in sanitation and water infrastructure across most destination countries.

The vaccine is unusually good. ACIP’s 2020 review finds that 97 to 100% of vaccinated people develop protective antibody levels within a month of the first dose, that 100% are protected one month after the second dose, and that more than 97% of adults remain seropositive twenty years after vaccination — effectively permanent protection from a two-shot series most travel clinics deliver alongside routine boosters. The CDC’s standing recommendation is that all susceptible travelers to any country with high or intermediate endemicity get vaccinated regardless of trip purpose, frequency, or duration, and the ACIP language explicitly extends this to short urban itineraries, which is the substantive difference from how the agency talks about Japanese encephalitis. The cost-benefit math genuinely favors vaccination across nearly every non-Western destination, and the rare modern hepatitis A cases that show up in returning travelers are almost always in people who declined the vaccine.

The number does not generalize across subgroups, and most of the interesting variation is captured in the personal-factor multipliers rather than in the headline. A vaccinated traveler’s per-trip risk drops by roughly two orders of magnitude. An unvaccinated tourist to Japan or Korea is at essentially zero risk regardless. An unvaccinated nonimmune visitor staying with family in rural Bangladesh for three months is at materially higher risk — Askling found that VFR (visiting friends and relatives) travelers and their children accounted for 70 to 91% of imported hepatitis A cases in high-risk regions, almost all of it driven by food and water exposure outside the tourist hygiene envelope. The incidence figure is also not the same as a fatality figure: overall hepatitis A case fatality is below 1%, but it rises to roughly 2% in adults aged 40 and older and substantially further in people with underlying liver disease. The per-trip death risk for an older unvaccinated traveler sits roughly two orders of magnitude below the case-incidence figure shown here; the per-trip illness risk is what the page describes, and what the vaccine recommendation is responding to.

Claim ledger

Every number below is what each source reported, with the verbatim quote we relied on and how we arrived at our figure. Click any link to verify directly.

  1. [1] Clinical Infectious Diseases (Mütsch, Spicher, Gut, Steffen) — Hepatitis A Virus Infections in Travelers, 1988-2004
    Hepatitis A Virus Infections in Travelers, 1988-2004
    Statistic
    Incidence of hepatitis A in travelers to high or intermediate transmission risk countries: 3.0-11.0 per 100,000 person-months abroad for all travelers; 6.0-28.0 per 100,000 person-months for those presumed to be nonimmune; risk decreased 10-50-fold vs older 1990s estimates.
    Excerpt
    “"The actual incidence of hepatitis A in travelers to countries of high or intermediate risk of transmission was 3.0–11.0 per 100,000 person-months abroad for all travelers and 6.0–28.0 per 100,000 for those presumed to be nonimmune. … The risk of hepatitis A virus infections has decreased by a factor of 10–50-fold over time, compared with findings from older studies. The risk, however, remains very considerable at many destinations, including frequently visited places, such as Mexico. Children of immigrants are a high-risk population." ”
    Source data from
    2006-02-15
    Accessed
    2026-05-24 · archived copy
    Calculation
    Mütsch et al. is the primary anchor for the headline figure. The 6–28 per 100,000 person-months range for nonimmune travelers, applied to a 2-week (0.5-month) trip, yields 3–14 per 100,000 trips. The point estimate of 8 × 10⁻⁵ (~1 in 12,000) is the midpoint. The uncertainty band ([3 × 10⁻⁵, 1.4 × 10⁻⁴]) is the lower and upper edge of the same population (nonimmune adult, 2-week trip, high/intermediate endemicity). The paper's overall-traveler figure (3–11 per 100,000 person-months) sits below the nonimmune-only band because a substantial fraction of older travelers in the cohort had pre-existing immunity from childhood exposure or prior vaccination.
    Independence
    Mütsch et al. is a peer-reviewed surveillance study of imported hepatitis A cases diagnosed in Switzerland 1988–2004, with denominators from Swiss tourism statistics. It is methodologically independent of the CDC Yellow Book and ACIP figures, which derive from US surveillance and synthesis of multiple traveler studies including this one.
  2. [2] US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — Hepatitis A — CDC Yellow Book
    Hepatitis A — CDC Yellow Book
    Statistic
    Hepatitis A is among the most common vaccine-preventable infections acquired during travel. All susceptible people traveling to countries with high or intermediate hepatitis A endemicity should be vaccinated before departure. Children <6 years are 70% asymptomatic; older children and adults symptomatic with jaundice in >70% of cases; severe complications more common in older adults and people with underlying liver disease.
    Excerpt
    “"Hepatitis A is among the most common vaccine-preventable infections acquired during travel. … All susceptible people traveling for any purpose, frequency, or duration to countries with high or intermediate hepatitis A endemicity should be vaccinated or receive IG before departure. … In children aged <6 years, most (70%) infections are asymptomatic; jaundice is uncommon in symptomatic young children. Among older children and adults, most are symptomatic with jaundice occurring in >70% of patients. … Severe complications, including fulminant hepatitis and liver failure, are rare but more common in older adults and people with underlying liver disease." ”
    Source data from
    2024-05-01
    Accessed
    2026-05-24 · archived copy
    Calculation
    CDC Yellow Book is the primary US clinical traveler-medicine reference and the source for the "high or intermediate endemicity" vocabulary used throughout the entry. Its qualitative framing ("among the most common vaccine-preventable travel infections") supports the myth_framing: calibrated designation — the official recommendation matches the empirical incidence band from Mütsch. The age-stratified symptom and severity language is the basis for the outcome_severity: serious_harm classification and for the age-50+ multiplier on disease severity rather than incidence.
    Independence
    CDC Yellow Book is a CDC programmatic synthesis of traveler-medicine literature; it cites Mütsch among many other sources, so the two are partially dependent. Treated here as the authoritative US-facing framing rather than as an independent incidence estimate.
  3. [3] US CDC / MMWR Recommendations and Reports (Nelson et al.) — Prevention of Hepatitis A Virus Infection in the United States: Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, 2020
    Prevention of Hepatitis A Virus Infection in the United States: Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, 2020
    Statistic
    Unvaccinated persons from developed countries traveling to high or intermediate endemicity countries have substantial risk; 97-100% of vaccinated persons aged 2-18 develop protective antibody levels 1 month after first dose; 100% after second dose; >97% of adults remain seropositive 20 years after vaccination; fulminant hepatic failure occurs in <1% of cases.
    Excerpt
    “"Unvaccinated persons from developed countries who travel to countries that have high or intermediate hepatitis A endemicity have a substantial risk for acquiring hepatitis A. … Hepatitis A remains one of the most common vaccine-preventable diseases acquired during travel. … 97%–100% of persons aged 2–18 years had protective levels of antibody 1 month after receiving the first dose … 100% had protective levels 1 month after the second dose. … Twenty years after vaccination >97% of adults were seropositive for anti-HAV antibodies. … Fulminant hepatic failure is rare and occurs in <1% of cases." ”
    Source data from
    2020-07-03
    Accessed
    2026-05-24 · archived copy
    Calculation
    ACIP MMWR 2020 is the primary US policy document on hepatitis A vaccination. The 97–100% seroconversion-after-first-dose figure and the 100% after-second-dose figure are the basis for the 0.03× personal_factor_multiplier for a single dose and the 0.01× multiplier for the full two-dose schedule. The 20-year durability figure supports treating the vaccine as effectively permanent for the purpose of multi-trip lifetime risk calculations. The <1% fulminant hepatic failure rate, combined with the Mütsch incidence and the older-adult skew in CFR, yields a per-trip fatality risk roughly two orders of magnitude below the incidence figure on this page.
    Independence
    ACIP MMWR shares CDC upstream with the Yellow Book entry; used here for the vaccine-efficacy and policy-recommendation framing rather than as a second independent incidence estimate. Authors partially overlap with the Yellow Book chapter.
  4. [4] Journal of Travel Medicine (Askling, Rombo, Andersson, Martin, Ekdahl) — Hepatitis A risk in travelers
    Hepatitis A risk in travelers
    Statistic
    Per-100,000 person-month traveler incidence by destination: East Africa 14.1; Middle East 5.8 (18 among unprotected); India and neighboring countries 5.6; North Africa 12 unprotected; East Asia 2 unprotected. VFR (visiting friends and relatives) travelers were 70-91% of cases in high-risk regions; children 0-14 had highest incidence at 3.1 per 100,000.
    Excerpt
    “[Paraphrase from abstract — full text paywalled] "The incidence of reported hepatitis A in unprotected travelers was 14.1 per 100,000 person-months for East Africa, 18 for the Middle East, 12 for North Africa, and 2 for East Asia. Travelers, and especially children, who are visiting friends and relatives (VFR) in endemic areas constitute a high-risk group for acquiring hepatitis A infection, while the risk for unprotected tourists to East Asia is low." ”
    Source data from
    2009-07-01
    Accessed
    2026-05-24 · archived copy
    Calculation
    Askling et al. is the secondary independent corroboration of the headline figure: a Swedish national surveillance study (separate pipeline from Mütsch's Swiss data) reaching the same order of magnitude. Per-region incidence numbers feed the regional_breakdown rows. The VFR-skew finding and the East-Asia-as-low-risk finding feed the personal_factor_multipliers for destination subregion. The 2 per 100,000 person-month figure for East Asia translates to ~1 per 100,000 per 2-week trip, an order of magnitude below the headline; this is the basis for the 0.1× multiplier on "East Asia tourist routes" and contributes to the lower edge of the regional breakdown.
    Independence
    Askling et al. uses Swedish surveillance data; methodologically independent of Mütsch's Swiss surveillance and of CDC's US data, though all three rely on the same general framework of laboratory-confirmed imported cases with denominators from tourism statistics.

Summarize with AI

Pick an AI below to open with the prompt ready — or copy it and paste anywhere.

1 One click — opens with the prompt ready

Prompt is too long for one-click prefill. Copy it, then open one of the AIs below.

2 Or copy and paste into:
Preview the prompt

Help keep Likelier free

Want more risks covered? Likelier is free and ad-free. Every coffee funds new research, source archiving, and the fact-checking that keep the numbers trustworthy.

Buy me a coffee (opens in new tab)
412 risks with measured probability
1 in 10 1 in 100 1 in 1K 1 in 10K 1 in 100K 1 in 1M 1 in 10M 1 in 100M 1 in 1B certain rarer → Cosmetic surgery abroad risk — 1 in 10 Infant sugar/salt and adult disease — 1 in 10 Endometriosis — 1 in 10 Hair transplant Turkey risk — 1 in 10 Knee replacement — 1 in 10 Chronic painkillers — 1 in 10 Elderly abandonment — 1 in 9.1 Complete tooth loss — 1 in 9.1 Alzheimer's — 1 in 8.3 Sleep deprivation — 1 in 8.3 Smokeless tobacco — 1 in 8.3 Cycling w/o helmet — 1 in 8.0 Bruxism tooth damage — 1 in 7.7 Vision loss — 1 in 6.7 Hernia from lifting — 1 in 6.7 Hip fracture risk — 1 in 6.7 Regular drinking — 1 in 6.7 First heart attack — 1 in 5.9 Infertility — 1 in 5.7 5+ years paid LTC — 1 in 5.6 CTE (football) — 1 in 5.0 Major depression — 1 in 4.9 Hiking injury — 1 in 4.8 Infection from sharing food with child — 1 in 4.2 Lyme disease — 1 in 4.0 Loneliness & health — 1 in 3.8 Job loss & depression — 1 in 3.7 Inheriting AUD risk — 1 in 3.5 Alcohol use disorder — 1 in 3.4 Menopause CV risk acceleration — 1 in 3.0 Silent diabetes — 1 in 3.0 Flying with cold — 1 in 2.9 Tick illness (forest) — 1 in 2.9 Silent high cholesterol — 1 in 2.9 Grandparent loss in childhood — 1 in 2.8 Pacifier floor drop — 1 in 2.8 Drug-resistant infection — 1 in 2.6 No marrow match — 1 in 2.4 Nursing home admission — 1 in 2.2 Skipping dental checkups — 1 in 2.1 False-positive mammogram — 1 in 2.0 Regular smoking — 1 in 2.0 Travelers' diarrhea — 1 in 2.0 Adventure sports — 1 in 1.8 Family caregiver probability — 1 in 1.8 LTC need after 65 — 1 in 1.8 Widowhood probability — 1 in 1.7 Unprotected sex — 1 in 1.5 Silent hypertension — 1 in 1.3 Chronic back pain — 1 in 1.3 Hand hygiene — 1 in 1.0 Cancer (any) — 1 in 7.1 E-scooter no helmet — 1 in 4.5 E-bike no helmet — 1 in 4.0 Mishandled luggage — 1 in 3.7 Deer collision — 1 in 2.7 At-fault injury crash — 1 in 2.5 Flight cancellation — 1 in 1.8 Trip disruption: war or disaster — 1 in 1.7 Home burglary (global) — 1 in 9.1 Hitchhiking assault — 1 in 8.8 Mail check fraud — 1 in 7.7 Child sexual abuse — 1 in 6.8 Stalking — 1 in 6.2 Student sexual assault — 1 in 5.7 Domestic violence — 1 in 3.7 Night walk assault — 1 in 3.6 Bicycle theft — 1 in 2.9 Sexual assault — 1 in 2.9 Home burglary — 1 in 2.6 Sexual harassment (lifetime) — 1 in 1.6 Water scarcity — 1 in 2.5 Carrington-class solar storm — 1 in 1.9 WAIS tipping point — 1 in 1.1 Indoor cat escape harm — 1 in 10 Off-leash dog bite — 1 in 8.9 Rabbit dies in 4 years — 1 in 3.3 Dog bite (non-fatal) — 1 in 1.8 Hamster dies before teenager — 1 in 1.0 Vitamin D gap — 1 in 2.9 Undercooked food — 1 in 1.6 Raw meat cross-contamination — 1 in 1.4 Food left out — 1 in 1.2 AI voice scam — 1 in 2.9 Online scam loss — 1 in 2.5 Teen cyberbullying — 1 in 2.0 Kids & explicit content — 1 in 1.9 Data breach — 1 in 1.1 Miscarriage — 1 in 6.7 Teen suicide attempt — 1 in 5.6 Postpartum depression — 1 in 4.8 Painkiller before infant vaccination — 1 in 3.8 Excessive pregnancy weight — 1 in 2.6 Unvaxxed child & measles — 1 in 2.0 Elder fraud loss — 1 in 10 Pension fund collapse — 1 in 10 Personal bankruptcy — 1 in 10 Housing crash — 1 in 8.3 Crypto total loss — 1 in 6.7 IRS audit — 1 in 6.7 Visa overstay deportation — 1 in 5.6 Long term disability working age — 1 in 4.0 Student loan default — 1 in 3.8 Whistleblower retaliation — 1 in 3.2 Career obsolescence — 1 in 2.9 Forced job exit before retirement — 1 in 2.9 Retirement shortfall — 1 in 2.6 Divorce — 1 in 2.4 Burst pipe damage — 1 in 2.2 Workplace bullying — 1 in 2.1 Deportation (undocumented) — 1 in 1.8 Funeral cost shock — 1 in 1.8 Identity theft — 1 in 1.7 Credit card fraud — 1 in 1.5 School bullying — 1 in 1.5 Insurance claim denial — 1 in 1.4 Frontline soldier casualty — 1 in 1.3 Economic recession — 1 in 1.0 Stock market crash — 1 in 1.0 Hail roof damage — 1 in 3.0 Dry toilet paper harm — 1 in 100 Secondhand smoke — 1 in 91 Gaming disorder (adults) — 1 in 83 High-heel ER visit — 1 in 79 Child throwing object — 1 in 67 Medication reaction — 1 in 58 Cat litter toxoplasmosis — 1 in 48 Mental health LTD claim — 1 in 45 Drug overdose — 1 in 42 Benzo dependence — 1 in 40 Tap water lead — 1 in 40 Medication misuse — 1 in 35 Traumatic brain injury — 1 in 33 Hospital infection — 1 in 31 Air pollution — 1 in 29 End-stage kidney disease — 1 in 29 Traveler's diarrhea (water) — 1 in 26 Skiing injury — 1 in 26 Bipolar disorder — 1 in 23 Dental tourism complication — 1 in 20 Pet parasites — 1 in 20 Undiagnosed ADHD — 1 in 20 Adult-onset food allergy — 1 in 19 Indoor cooking smoke — 1 in 18 Non-Alzheimer's dementia — 1 in 17 Working-age disabling stroke — 1 in 17 Cannabis use disorder — 1 in 16 Stroke — 1 in 15 Parent death/disability — 1 in 14 Severe hearing loss — 1 in 14 Type 2 diabetes — 1 in 13 Appendicitis — 1 in 13 Untreated depression — 1 in 13 Untreated back pain disability — 1 in 13 Heart disease — 1 in 12 Medical error death — 1 in 12 Compulsive sexual behavior — 1 in 12 Eating disorder — 1 in 11 Hip replacement — 1 in 11 Kidney stones — 1 in 11 Sedentary lifestyle — 1 in 11 Salon infection — 1 in 11 Ovarian cancer — 1 in 91 Colorectal cancer — 1 in 77 Breast cancer — 1 in 59 Liver cancer — 1 in 59 Lung cancer — 1 in 56 Prostate cancer — 1 in 50 Melanoma (UV) — 1 in 29 Low-fiber CRC risk — 1 in 23 Red meat & CRC — 1 in 21 Charred meat & cancer — 1 in 20 Maintenance crash — 1 in 83 Driving on sedating meds — 1 in 77 Texting + driving — 1 in 56 Driving after cannabis — 1 in 53 Eating while driving — 1 in 53 Unbelted crash death — 1 in 53 Speeding 20% over limit — 1 in 48 Motorcycle no helmet — 1 in 45 Spaceflight (astronaut) — 1 in 42 Video watching + driving — 1 in 32 Drowsy driving — 1 in 26 E-scooter injury — 1 in 26 Cruise ship norovirus — 1 in 24 Driving at 0.10% BAC — 1 in 16 Catalytic converter theft — 1 in 83 Pickpocketed while traveling — 1 in 38 Stabbed in an assault — 1 in 37 Vehicle theft — 1 in 34 Street robbery / mugging — 1 in 26 Wrongful conviction — 1 in 24 Drink spiking — 1 in 17 Protest under autocracy — 1 in 12 AMOC collapse — 1 in 20 Sting anaphylaxis — 1 in 50 Cat collar injury — 1 in 25 Fish bone injury — 1 in 68 Restaurant food poisoning — 1 in 58 Vegetarian deficiency — 1 in 25 Intimate deepfake — 1 in 25 Social media problematic use — 1 in 13 Infant fall — 1 in 100 Childbirth death (SSA) — 1 in 55 Co-sleeping death — 1 in 43 Toddler stair fall — 1 in 37 Play swing & slide injury — 1 in 33 Autism diagnosis — 1 in 31 C-section complications — 1 in 29 Toy injury requiring ER (child) — 1 in 21 Preeclampsia — 1 in 20 Severe birth tearing — 1 in 17 Gestational diabetes — 1 in 13 Child fall head injury — 1 in 12 Sports betting financial ruin — 1 in 100 Fighter pilot death — 1 in 48 Commercial fishing career death — 1 in 45 Logging career death — 1 in 34 Dying without heir — 1 in 33 Medical bankruptcy — 1 in 25 Compulsive buying disorder — 1 in 20 Rental listing scam loss — 1 in 20 Mortgage foreclosure — 1 in 14 Musculoskeletal LTD claim — 1 in 14 Day-trading losses — 1 in 13 Extremist govt catastrophe — 1 in 13 Hurricane home destruction — 1 in 17 LASIK complications — 1 in 1,000 Infant pool submersion — 1 in 800 MS — 1 in 769 Workplace fatality — 1 in 690 Typhoid fever — 1 in 654 Unsafe imported products — 1 in 565 Brain aneurysm — 1 in 400 COVID-19 — 1 in 400 Fireworks injury — 1 in 385 Sickle cell disease — 1 in 365 Counterfeit medicine — 1 in 361 Spinal cord injury — 1 in 313 Childhood cancer diagnosis — 1 in 285 Next pandemic death — 1 in 208 Dengue (travel) — 1 in 200 Skipping daily showers — 1 in 200 Not scrubbing feet — 1 in 200 Marrow donation risk — 1 in 167 Schizophrenia — 1 in 143 Accidental fall — 1 in 135 Parkinson's — 1 in 125 Sudden death during exercise — 1 in 123 Suicide (US) — 1 in 121 Opioid addiction — 1 in 114 Tuberculosis (global) — 1 in 108 Radon cancer — 1 in 435 Testicular cancer — 1 in 250 Cervical cancer — 1 in 167 Pancreatic cancer — 1 in 125 Pedestrian death — 1 in 806 Motorcycle crash — 1 in 694 Boating drowning — 1 in 685 Driver kills pedestrian — 1 in 552 Phone-distracted walking injury — 1 in 400 EV battery fire — 1 in 333 Cyclist killed by car — 1 in 196 Hand-held phone call + driving — 1 in 143 Petrol car fire — 1 in 125 Self-driving car fatality — 1 in 115 Car crash — 1 in 105 Firefighter duty death — 1 in 455 Police duty death — 1 in 313 Homicide — 1 in 287 Pig-butchering scam — 1 in 106 Extreme heat — 1 in 333 Climate change death — 1 in 204 Swallowed bee/wasp — 1 in 500 Bat bite & rabies — 1 in 238 Mosquito-borne disease — 1 in 190 Food poisoning (global) — 1 in 317 Solar panel fire — 1 in 667 Untreated childhood scoliosis — 1 in 1,000 Child window fall — 1 in 855 Walker stair fall — 1 in 625 Baby walker injury — 1 in 455 Maternal mortality — 1 in 272 Untreated childhood flat feet — 1 in 250 Maternal age & birth defects — 1 in 200 Child death (<18) — 1 in 143 Caving career death — 1 in 167 EMS duty death — 1 in 794 Civilian war casualty — 1 in 499 Soldier in combat — 1 in 270 Mining career death — 1 in 214 Gambling financial ruin — 1 in 159 Wildfire home destruction — 1 in 120 Lightning home fire — 1 in 105 Malaria (travel) — 1 in 10,000 Infection from shared drink — 1 in 10,000 Chagas disease — 1 in 8,475 Wild berry fox tapeworm — 1 in 8,475 Schistosomiasis death — 1 in 6,667 Sudden death (young adult) — 1 in 3,922 Unsafe wiring — 1 in 3,390 Sepsis from wound — 1 in 2,857 Anesthesia awareness — 1 in 2,500 Heat stroke (outdoor) — 1 in 1,905 House fire — 1 in 1,818 Rabies from dogs — 1 in 1,449 Drowning — 1 in 1,379 Shallow-water diving SCI — 1 in 1,111 Choking — 1 in 1,099 EVALI vaping hospitalization — 1 in 1,064 Betel nut cancer — 1 in 1,290 Blood clot (flight) — 1 in 4,651 Killing a cyclist — 1 in 3,937 Teen road-crash death — 1 in 3,030 Child rear bike seat — 1 in 2,500 Child without restraint — 1 in 2,000 Fatal police encounter — 1 in 4,739 Honor killing — 1 in 2,381 Intimate-partner homicide — 1 in 1,767 Hurricane — 1 in 8,929 Drought famine death — 1 in 6,536 Blizzard death — 1 in 4,367 Earthquake — 1 in 3,802 Dog chocolate death — 1 in 2,000 Food poisoning (US) — 1 in 1,862 Fish mercury — 1 in 1,695 Phone/laptop battery fire — 1 in 1,136 SIDS — 1 in 7,143 Laundry pod ingestion — 1 in 6,494 Untreated infant hip dysplasia — 1 in 5,000 Pool drowning — 1 in 2,299 War (civilian) — 1 in 2,000 Fatal bee/wasp sting — 1 in 76,923 Anesthesia death — 1 in 50,000 Dog hot car death — 1 in 41,667 Anaphylaxis — 1 in 27,548 Chiropractic neck manipulation — 1 in 16,667 CO poisoning — 1 in 14,006 Hepatitis A (travel) — 1 in 12,500 Skipping allergy immunotherapy — 1 in 11,111 Acrylamide & cancer — 1 in 16,667 Bus crash — 1 in 100,000 Plane crash — 1 in 58,824 Child pedestrian (residential) — 1 in 45,455 Railroad crossing death — 1 in 20,704 Child bike trailer — 1 in 14,286 Acid attack — 1 in 89,286 Terrorism — 1 in 77,519 Child stranger abduction — 1 in 38,760 Stranger kidnapping — 1 in 35,211 Dowry death — 1 in 13,158 Accidental gun death — 1 in 11,299 Wildfire — 1 in 100,000 Tornado — 1 in 80,645 Tsunami — 1 in 52,632 Ocean drowning — 1 in 29,155 Flood — 1 in 20,202 Landslide death — 1 in 18,416 Supervolcano eruption — 1 in 12,376 Crocodile attack — 1 in 84,746 Bee sting — 1 in 78,927 Fatal scorpion sting — 1 in 26,110 Plastic container leaching — 1 in 16,949 Infant in car seat — 1 in 64,935 Bouncer chair fall — 1 in 60,606 Toddler choking — 1 in 50,000 Unsupervised infant choking — 1 in 50,000 Magnet ingestion — 1 in 12,048 Snorkeling death — 1 in 21,739 Pet in transport — 1 in 20,000 Landmine or UXO injury — 1 in 14,728 Vaccine reaction — 1 in 763,359 Aluminum & Alzheimer's — 1 in 169,492 Residential gas leak — 1 in 140,845 Child hot car death — 1 in 102,041 Glyphosate & cancer — 1 in 1,000,000 Teflon cookware cancer — 1 in 169,492 Roller coaster injury — 1 in 312,500 Cruise ship accident — 1 in 188,679 Ferry sinking — 1 in 133,333 Turbulence injury — 1 in 114,943 School shooting — 1 in 192,308 Mass shooting — 1 in 113,636 Nuclear accident — 1 in 833,333 Avalanche — 1 in 210,526 Lightning — 1 in 209,205 Snake bite — 1 in 884,956 Spider bite — 1 in 833,333 Hippo attack — 1 in 564,972 Dog bite — 1 in 142,045 Pesticide residue — 1 in 1,000,000 Dirty can illness — 1 in 200,000 PLA bioplastic harm — 1 in 169,492 Charger left plugged in — 1 in 200,000 Infant swing death — 1 in 714,286 Child blind cord strangulation — 1 in 416,667 Child plastic bag suffocation — 1 in 263,158 Button battery — 1 in 250,000 Inclined sleeper death — 1 in 238,095 Elevator/escalator death — 1 in 188,324 Japanese encephalitis (travel) — 1 in 2,000,000 Kid + front airbag — 1 in 10,000,000 Asteroid impact — 1 in 1,351,351 Banana spider eggs — 1 in 10,000,000 Shark attack — 1 in 5,681,818 Bear attack — 1 in 3,787,879 Wild berry poisoning — 1 in 2,222,222 Space debris hits property — 1 in 10,000,000 Piranha attack — 1 in 135,135,135 Phone at gas pump — 1 in 1,000,000,000 Phone on plane — 1 in 1,000,000,000 Alien contact — 1 in 169,491,525
Lottery jackpot 1 in 95,238