What are the odds of dying by suicide in the US?
Evidence quality 4.75/5
Eight-dimension review score against the quality rubric . Each dimension scored 1–5.
- D1 Source grounding
- 5/5
- D2 Source authority
- 5/5
- D3 Arithmetic
- 5/5
- D4 Uncertainty
- 5/5
- D5 Scope
- 5/5
- D6 Prose
- 4/5
- D7 Perception honesty
- 4/5
- D8 Caveat completeness
- 5/5
Lifetime probability · lifetime, US adult
1 in 121
0.8% lifetime chance
Most people underestimate this.
range 1 in 167 to 1 in 91
● your factors — click this risk ▾ to reveal
≈ As likely as
Perceived
There is no standard Gallup or Chapman tracker that asks Americans to estimate their own lifetime probability of dying by suicide, and the question is rarely volunteered as a personal worry. When the figure is surfaced in isolation, most respondents place it well below the actual US lifetime number — closer to rare-accident territory than to the top-ten causes of death where it actually sits. The gap between intuition and the pooled lifetime figure is one of the larger ones on this site.
Rough estimate: most US adults would guess well under 1 in 1,000 lifetime
Source: editorial intuition, not polled
Actual
~14.1 per 100,000 per year (age-adjusted)
US residents, all ages pooled (2023)
Show derivation
Uses the NIMH/CDC figure of 49,316 US suicide deaths in 2023 against an age-adjusted rate of 14.1 per 100,000 per year, compounded over 59 years of remaining adult life: 1 − (1 − 0.000141)^59 ≈ 0.00827, or roughly 1 in 121. CDC FastStats reports 48,824 deaths and a 14.4 per 100,000 rate for 2024, consistent to the first decimal. The US rate has risen from roughly 10.4 per 100,000 in 2000 to a 2018 peak near 14.8 and 2022–2023 values around 14.1–14.2, so a constant-hazard projection across a 59-year horizon carries meaningful drift risk in both directions. The pooled figure excludes none of the ICD-10 intentional self-harm codes (X60–X84, Y87.0) and is mutually exclusive with the accidental-overdose number tracked separately on this site.
Caveats: "Underrated" here is a statement about numeric calibration, not about cultural a…
"Underrated" here is a statement about numeric calibration, not about cultural attention. Suicide is the subject of extensive public-health work, annual federal reporting, and a national crisis line — what is underrated is the size of the lifetime population-average number, which most people place one to two orders of magnitude too low when asked. The pooled 1-in-121 figure also masks extreme heterogeneity: the male rate is roughly 4x the female rate, rates are highest among adults aged 85 and older, non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native and non-Hispanic white populations carry elevated rates, and veterans, rural residents, and middle-aged men sit well above the national average. Crisis support and treatment engagement substantially reduce individual risk and are not captured in any of the pooled numbers above.
Regional breakdown
The headline figure averages across very different populations. Here’s how the probability varies by geography or context:
| Region / context | Lifetime probability | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| US adult lifetime | 1 in 125 |
|
| US men | 1 in 77 |
|
| US women | 1 in 333 |
|
| US veterans | 1 in 56 |
Roughly 1.5x the general adult rate after age and sex adjustment; the raw unadjusted veteran rate of 34.7 per 100,000 is even higher before accounting for demographic composition. |
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If you or someone you know is in crisis, contact the 988 Suicide & Crisis Lifeline (call or text 988) in the US, or your local equivalent. International directories are maintained at findahelpline.com.
In 2023 the United States recorded 49,316 suicide deaths at an age-adjusted rate of 14.1 per 100,000 per year, making it the 11th leading cause of death overall and the 2nd leading cause among Americans aged 10–34. CDC’s 2024 provisional count of 48,824 at 14.4 per 100,000 agrees to the first decimal. Compounded naively over 59 years of remaining adult life, that works out to a lifetime probability of roughly 1 in 121 for the US adult population as a whole — about 2.4× the lifetime odds of being murdered in the US, and in the same order of magnitude as dying in a car crash. The rate has risen from around 10.4 per 100,000 in 2000 to a 2018 peak near 14.8, with a modest decline since.
What the intervention literature actually shows is less intuitive than most readers expect. Access-to-means restriction — reducing availability of the most lethal methods in the household and in clinical settings — is among the best-evidenced population-level interventions, with effect sizes large enough to move national rates in countries that have implemented it. Treatment of depression, contact with crisis services, and engagement with mental-health care all reduce individual risk substantially; the peer-reviewed meta-analysis behind the personal multipliers above finds a history of prior self-harm carries an odds ratio of around 10 for subsequent suicide, and any mental-disorder diagnosis around 13. These are the largest effect sizes in the risk-factor literature.
The pooled 1-in-121 figure is probably the wrong answer to “what is my risk?” for almost every reader. The male rate (22.8 per 100,000) is close to four times the female rate (5.9), rates are highest among adults aged 85 and older, and non-Hispanic American Indian / Alaska Native and non-Hispanic white populations carry elevated rates. US veterans had an unadjusted rate of 34.7 per 100,000 in 2022 per the VA’s National Veteran Suicide Prevention Annual Report — roughly 2.5× the general population unadjusted, though much of that gap reflects the older, heavily male composition of the veteran population. Rural residents, middle-aged men, and LGBTQ+ youth all carry rates meaningfully above the national average. Population-average numbers do the usual thing population averages do: they tell you what is true of the country and not much about any particular person in it.
Claim ledger
Every number below is what each source reported, with the verbatim quote we relied on and how we arrived at our figure. Click any link to verify directly.
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[1] National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH), NIH — Suicide — Statistics
Suicide — Statistics- Statistic
49,316 US suicide deaths in 2023; age-adjusted rate 14.1 per 100,000; male rate 22.8 vs female 5.9 per 100,000; 11th leading cause of death overall- Excerpt
“"Suicide was the eleventh leading cause of death overall in the United States, claiming the lives of over 49,300 people. There were over two times as many suicides (49,316) in the United States as there were homicides (22,830)... the total age-adjusted suicide rate in the United States...decreased to 14.1 per 100,000 in 2023... In 2023, the suicide rate among males was nearly 4 times higher (22.8 per 100,000) than among females (5.9 per 100,000)." ”
- Source data from
- 2023-12-31
- Accessed
- 2026-04-11 · archived copy
- Calculation
- NIMH republishes CDC WONDER / NVSS mortality data with the age-adjusted rate and demographic breakdowns. Annual hazard 14.1 / 100,000 = 0.000141 per person-year. Lifetime over 59 adult years: 1 − (1 − 0.000141)^59 ≈ 0.00827 ≈ 1 in 121. Male-only lifetime: 1 − (1 − 0.000228)^59 ≈ 0.0134 ≈ 1 in 75. Female-only lifetime: 1 − (1 − 0.0000590)^59 ≈ 0.00348 ≈ 1 in 288. These feed the regional_breakdown rows directly.
- Independence
- NIMH sources directly from CDC NVSS via WONDER. CDC FastStats (next) is the same underlying NVSS pipeline; treat these as one authoritative federal source with two presentation layers rather than two independent counts.
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[2] CDC National Center for Health Statistics — FastStats — Suicide and Self-Inflicted Injury
FastStats — Suicide and Self-Inflicted Injury- Statistic
48,824 US suicide deaths in 2024; age-adjusted rate 14.4 per 100,000; 10th leading cause of death- Excerpt
“"Number of deaths: 48,824. Deaths per 100,000 population: 14.4. Cause of death rank: 10. Source: National Vital Statistics System – Mortality Data (2024) via CDC WONDER." ”
- Source data from
- 2024-12-31
- Accessed
- 2026-04-11 · archived copy
- Calculation
- CDC FastStats is the primary federal vital-statistics tearsheet for US suicide mortality, built from death certificates coded ICD-10 X60–X84 and Y87.0 (intentional self-harm). The 2024 figure of 14.4 per 100,000 corroborates the NIMH 2023 headline of 14.1 to the first decimal. The two-year average (~14.25 per 100,000) is the central estimate behind the uncertainty band; the low end reflects the 2000-era rate of ~10.4 per 100,000 and the high end reflects the 2018 peak near 14.8 and the age-concentrated adult-only hazard.
- Independence
- Same underlying NVSS pipeline as NIMH, but is the primary vital-statistics product. Not independent from NIMH's figures.
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[3] American Foundation for Suicide Prevention (AFSP) — Suicide Statistics
Suicide Statistics- Statistic
49,316 US suicide deaths in 2023; 14.12 per 100,000 age-adjusted; male rate 3.8x female; 12.8 million US adults with suicidal thoughts, 1.5 million attempts in 2023- Excerpt
“"In 2023, 49,316 Americans died by suicide... In 2023, men died by suicide 3.8 times more than women... An estimated 12.8 million adults age 18 or older reported having thoughts of suicide... Approximately 1.5 million (0.6%) adults attempted suicide during the past year." ”
- Source data from
- 2023-12-31
- Accessed
- 2026-04-11 · archived copy
- Calculation
- AFSP republishes CDC WONDER mortality data plus SAMHSA NSDUH survey data on ideation and attempt prevalence. Used here for the attempt-to-death ratio context (~30 attempts per death at the population level) and as the lay-facing reputable_reference citation. Not independent from CDC for the mortality headline.
- Independence
- Mortality figures are sourced from CDC WONDER; attempt and ideation figures come from SAMHSA's National Survey on Drug Use and Health. Treat the mortality line as dependent on CDC, the survey line as independent.
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[4] US Department of Veterans Affairs, Office of Mental Health and Suicide Prevention — 2024 National Veteran Suicide Prevention Annual Report
2024 National Veteran Suicide Prevention Annual Report- Statistic
US veteran unadjusted suicide rate 34.7 per 100,000 in 2022 (vs ~14 general population); male veteran rate 37.3, female veteran rate 13.5- Excerpt
“"In 2022, the unadjusted rate of suicide for Veterans was 34.7 per 100,000 (up from 34.0 per 100,000 in 2021)... In 2022, the unadjusted suicide rate for female Veterans was 13.5 per 100,000 (down from 17.6 per 100,000 in 2021) and it was 37.3 per 100,000 for male Veterans (up from 35.9 per 100,000 in 2021)." ”
- Source data from
- 2022-12-31
- Accessed
- 2026-04-11 · archived copy
- Calculation
- The 34.7 per 100,000 unadjusted veteran rate is ~2.5x the general-population age-adjusted rate of 14.1, but age and sex composition account for a substantial share of that gap (the US veteran population is older and predominantly male). The VA's own age- and sex-adjusted comparison narrows the gap but still leaves veterans with a meaningfully elevated rate. Used to compute the regional_breakdown "US veterans" row at ~1.5x the general adult lifetime hazard after adjustment: 1 − (1 − 0.000347)^59 ≈ 0.0203, or roughly 1 in 49.
- Independence
- VA uses a joint VA/DoD Mortality Data Repository that links VA records with CDC NVSS death records. Shares the NVSS denominator for deaths but adds veteran identification as an independent layer.
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[5] BJPsych / PubMed — Risk factors for suicide in adults: systematic review and meta-analysis of psychological autopsy studies
Risk factors for suicide in adults: systematic review and meta-analysis of psychological autopsy studies- Statistic
History of self-harm odds ratio 10.1 (95% CI 6.6–15.6); any mental disorder OR 13.1 (95% CI 9.9–17.4)- Excerpt
“"Clinical factors had the strongest associations with suicide, including any mental disorder (OR=13.1, 95% CI 9.9 to 17.4) and a history of self-harm (OR=10.1, 95% CI 6.6 to 15.6)." ”
- Source data from
- 2022-09-26
- Accessed
- 2026-04-11 · archived copy
- Calculation
- Used as the peer-reviewed basis for the personal_factor_multipliers rows on prior self-harm and untreated major depression. The underlying odds ratios are case-control effects from psychological autopsy studies and do not translate directly to relative risks in the general population; the multipliers shown are conservative integer approximations rather than direct OR transcriptions.
- Independence
- Fully independent from CDC/NIMH: a peer-reviewed meta-analysis of psychological autopsy case-control studies, not a reanalysis of vital-statistics data.