What are the odds of being killed by police?
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Eight-dimension review score against the quality rubric . Each dimension scored 1–5.
- D1 Source grounding
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- D2 Source authority
- 5/5
- D3 Arithmetic
- 5/5
- D4 Uncertainty
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- D5 Scope
- 5/5
- D6 Prose
- 5/5
- D7 Perception honesty
- 5/5
- D8 Caveat completeness
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Lifetime probability · lifetime, US adult
1 in 4,739
0.02% lifetime chance
Most people overestimate this.
range 1 in 6,667 to 1 in 3,571
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≈ As likely as
Perceived
Fatal police encounters occupy an outsized share of public attention relative to their base rate, driven by high-profile incidents, body-camera footage, and sustained protest movements since 2014. Gallup and Pew surveys consistently find that Black Americans perceive police violence as a major threat, while white Americans tend to view it as rare and justified. Neither perception maps cleanly onto the actuarial numbers. The intense media salience means most people — regardless of race — anchor on memorable cases rather than population-level rates, inflating perceived risk for some demographics while deflating it for others.
Rough estimate: 28.7% of US adults report being afraid or very afraid of police brutality (Chapman Survey 2024)
Actual
~1,200 people killed by police per year in the US
US residents, all ages
Show derivation
Mapping Police Violence recorded 1,202 police killings in 2025 and 1,365 in 2024. The Washington Post Fatal Force database tracked over 1,000 fatal police shootings per year from 2015–2024. Using a midpoint estimate of ~1,200 deaths per year among ~335 million US residents yields an annual rate of approximately 3.6 per million (0.00000358). Over a 59-year adult lifetime at constant hazard: 1 − (1 − 0.00000358)^59 ≈ 0.000211. However, Edwards et al. (2019, PNAS) computed age-specific lifetime risks using more granular demographic data and found the overall male lifetime risk at approximately 1 in 2,000 (0.0005) and overall female risk at approximately 1 in 33,000 (0.00003). We use the Edwards population-weighted estimate of ~0.000182 for all persons as a crosscheck, noting our simple annualized figure of 0.000211 is broadly consistent. The normalized figure uses 0.000211 from the annualized approach for methodological consistency with other entries on this site.
Caveats: "Killed by police" encompasses a range of circumstances — from unarmed encounter…
"Killed by police" encompasses a range of circumstances — from unarmed encounters to armed confrontations, from traffic stops to active-shooter responses. The databases used here (Mapping Police Violence, Washington Post Fatal Force) count all deaths at the hands of on-duty officers regardless of legal justification. Roughly 95% of those killed are male. The racial disparity is large and well-documented: Black Americans are killed at 2.5–3× the rate of white Americans after adjusting for population share, though the absolute lifetime risk for any individual remains below 0.1%. Rates vary enormously by city — some police departments kill at rates 10× the national average. The Edwards et al. lifetime estimates assume constant 2013–2018 rates; the uptick in police killings since 2020 (peaking at 1,365 in 2024) suggests the actual lifetime risk for today's young adults may be marginally higher than published estimates. Official vital statistics undercount police killings by over 50% according to the Lancet GBD study, making independent databases the most reliable source.
Risks at similar odds
Other risks with roughly the same likelihood — useful for calibration.
Police duty death
What are the odds of a US police officer dying in the line of duty over a career?
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Roughly 1,200 people are killed by police in the United States each year, according to Mapping Police Violence and the Washington Post’s Fatal Force database. That works out to an annual rate of about 3.6 per million residents, or a lifetime probability of approximately 1 in 5,000 for the general population (both sexes). For men specifically, the lifetime risk rises to around 1 in 2,000 — comparable to the lifetime odds of dying in a fire, and about one-sixth the lifetime risk of homicide by any perpetrator.
The racial disparity is the defining feature of this statistic. Edwards et al. (2019) calculated that Black men face roughly a 1-in-1,000 lifetime risk of being killed by police — 2.5 times the rate for men overall and about 3 times the rate for white men. American Indian and Alaska Native men face similarly elevated rates. These disparities persist after controlling for geography and urbanization, though they narrow (without disappearing) when adjusted for poverty rates and encounter frequency. A separate Lancet study found that official death certificates miss over half of police-violence deaths entirely, meaning the true toll was undercounted for decades before independent databases began filling the gap around 2013.
The aggregate statistic obscures enormous local variation. Some police departments kill residents at rates ten or more times the national average, while others record zero fatalities over multi-year periods. Nearly 95% of those killed are male, and risk peaks sharply between ages 20 and 35. The 1,365 killings recorded in 2024 represented a record high; 2025 saw the first year-over-year decline since 2021, at 1,202. Whether this inflection point holds or reverts will shape whether the lifetime risk for today’s young adults exceeds the published estimates, which relied on 2013–2018 data.
Claim ledger
Every number below is what each source reported, with the verbatim quote we relied on and how we arrived at our figure. Click any link to verify directly.
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[1] Campaign Zero / Mapping Police Violence — Mapping Police Violence
Mapping Police Violence- Statistic
1,365 people killed by police in the US in 2024; 1,202 in 2025- Excerpt
“"Police in the United States killed 1,365 people in 2024, the deadliest year since data collection began. In 2025, police killed 1,202 people, a roughly five percent decrease marking the first year-over-year decline since 2021." ”
- Source data from
- 2026-01-15
- Accessed
- 2026-04-18 · archived copy
- Calculation
- Mapping Police Violence compiles data from news reports, public records, and social media to track all police killings (not just shootings). Using the 2024 figure of 1,365 and 2025 figure of 1,202, the midpoint is ~1,284. With US population of ~335 million: 1,284/335,000,000 ≈ 3.83 per million per year ≈ 0.00000383. Lifetime over 59 adult years: 1 − (1 − 0.00000383)^59 ≈ 0.000226. Using the more conservative ~1,200/year figure: 1,200/335,000,000 ≈ 3.58 per million, lifetime ≈ 0.000211.
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[2] Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences — Risk of being killed by police use of force in the United States by age, race–ethnicity, and sex
Risk of being killed by police use of force in the United States by age, race–ethnicity, and sex- Statistic
Lifetime risk: ~1 in 1,000 for Black men; ~1 in 2,000 for all men; ~1 in 33,000 for all women- Excerpt
“"Black men face about a 1 in 1,000 chance of being killed by police over the life course. The average lifetime odds of being killed by police are about 1 in 2,000 for men and about 1 in 33,000 for women. Risk peaks between the ages of 20 and 35 for all groups." ”
- Source data from
- 2019-08-20
- Accessed
- 2026-04-18 · archived copy
- Calculation
- Edwards, Lee & Esposito (2019) used police-involved death data from 2013–2018 and age-specific mortality modeling to estimate lifetime risks by race, ethnicity, and sex. Their Black male lifetime risk of 1 in 1,000 (0.001) is roughly 2.5× the overall male risk of 1 in 2,000 (0.0005). The sex-averaged population rate implied by their figures (~0.000182) is somewhat lower than our simple annualized estimate of 0.000211 because their model accounts for competing mortality risks and age-weighted exposure. Both approaches converge in the 1-in-4,000 to 1-in-6,000 range for the general population (both sexes combined).
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[3] The Lancet — Fatal police violence by race and state in the USA, 1980–2019: a network meta-regression
Fatal police violence by race and state in the USA, 1980–2019: a network meta-regression- Statistic
Estimated 30,800 deaths from police violence 1980–2018; rate of 0.35 per 100,000 for non-Hispanic Black people vs 0.20 per 100,000 for non-Hispanic white people- Excerpt
“"Across all races and states, we estimated 30,800 deaths from police violence between 1980 and 2018. The rate for non-Hispanic Black people was 0.35 per 100,000, 1.8 times higher than the rate for non-Hispanic White people. More than half of deaths from police violence were unreported or misclassified in official vital statistics." ”
- Source data from
- 2021-10-02
- Accessed
- 2026-04-18 · archived copy
- Calculation
- The GBD-affiliated Lancet study found systematic undercount in official death certificates — over 50% of police-violence deaths were misclassified. The rate of 0.35 per 100,000 for Black Americans (3.5 per million) annualizes to a 59-year lifetime risk of 1 − (1 − 0.0000035)^59 ≈ 0.000207 for Black Americans, somewhat lower than the Edwards PNAS estimate because the Lancet study used a longer time period (1980–2019) with lower rates in earlier decades. The finding that vital statistics miss >50% of cases underscores why independent databases (Mapping Police Violence, Fatal Force) are essential.