Skip to content
Likelier
Health · reviewed 2026-04-11

What are the odds of contracting dengue fever as a traveler?

Evidence quality 4.75/5

Eight-dimension review score against the quality rubric . Each dimension scored 1–5.

D1 Source grounding
5/5
D2 Source authority
5/5
D3 Arithmetic
4/5
D4 Uncertainty
5/5
D5 Scope
5/5
D6 Prose
5/5
D7 Perception honesty
4/5
D8 Caveat completeness
5/5
Average 4.75/5
Direct evidence

Lifetime probability · lifetime, activity-specific

1 in 200

0.5% lifetime chance

range 1 in 2,000 to 1 in 100

lifetime, activity-specific each band = 10× rarer → zoomed to your factors See full scale →
certain 1 in 1K 1 in 1M 1 in 1B
1 in 10 1 in 667

● your factors — click this risk ▾ to reveal

≈ As likely as

A single stylized hibiscus flower resting on a pale neutral background, flat vector illustration in muted tones.

Perceived

Dengue sits in a strange corner of the traveler’s risk imagination. Most Likelier readers heading to Bali or Cancun don’t carry a specific fear of dengue the way they carry a specific fear of malaria or Japanese encephalitis; they carry a vague “tropical mosquito disease” worry that folds dengue, chikungunya, Zika, and malaria into one bucket. That intuition is roughly calibrated for the wet-season urban traveler — symptomatic attack rates on a two-week trip to peak-season Southeast Asia or the Caribbean sit in the low-single-digit-per-thousand range, which is neither negligible nor alarming. We haven’t found a rigorous recent survey that isolates “fear of catching dengue on a trip” from general travel-health anxiety, so the perceived side of this entry is marked as editorial intuition rather than polled data.

Rough estimate: most travelers file dengue under 'tropical mosquito disease, unlikely but real'

Source: editorial intuition, not polled

Actual

~1 in 200 per 2-week trip to an endemic region in peak transmission season

reference traveler: 2-week leisure visit to a dengue-endemic urban area during peak transmission season

Show derivation

The headline is an order-of-magnitude estimate for a reference traveler: a two-week leisure visit to a dengue-endemic urban area (Southeast Asia wet season or Caribbean / Latin America peak season), with baseline precautions but no vaccine. It is NOT a lifetime figure for a US adult; travel dengue risk is overwhelmingly a per-trip, per-destination, per-season question, so this entry uses scope “activity_specific_lifetime” to mean “per traveler-trip.” Off-peak travel to the same destinations is roughly an order of magnitude lower. An estimated 40–80% of dengue infections are asymptomatic (CDC Yellow Book), so the true infection rate is higher than the symptomatic attack rate this figure represents — but asymptomatic infections still count toward the antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) risk on a future trip, which is why the personal_factor_multipliers call out prior infection. Severe dengue occurs in roughly 5% or fewer of symptomatic cases (CDC Yellow Book); per-trip severe-dengue risk is therefore on the order of 1 in 4,000 at the headline figure, and per-trip mortality is lower still given modern supportive care. The uncertainty band reflects the spread across destinations, seasons, and serosurvey-vs-case-report methodology.

Caveats: The headline ~1-in-200 per-trip figure is an order-of-magnitude estimate for a t…

The headline ~1-in-200 per-trip figure is an order-of-magnitude estimate for a two-week leisure stay in a peak-season endemic urban area, not a precise rate. True attack rates vary by country, city, neighborhood, accommodation type, month, and prevailing serotype, and published traveler serostudies span roughly 0.2–2% per two-week trip depending on destination. An estimated 40–80% of dengue infections are asymptomatic, so the true infection rate is substantially higher than the symptomatic attack rate represented here; asymptomatic infections still carry forward the antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) risk profile for any future trip, which is the main reason a “I had it once and it was nothing” traveler should not treat that as reassurance. Severe dengue (dengue hemorrhagic fever / dengue shock syndrome) occurs in up to 5% of symptomatic cases per CDC Yellow Book, with a lower ~0.45% figure specifically in GeoSentinel travelers who have access to modern supportive care (Huits et al. 2023). This entry measures the probability of contracting dengue, not of dying from it: per-trip mortality is roughly two orders of magnitude lower than the per-trip infection risk, and dominated by diagnostic delay in non-endemic emergency rooms. Returning travelers with fever within two weeks of an endemic trip should be evaluated for dengue alongside malaria. The sibling entry `malaria-travel` covers malaria specifically and `mosquito-borne-disease` covers the aggregate mortality figure across all mosquito-borne diseases globally.

Regional breakdown

The headline figure averages across very different populations. Here’s how the probability varies by geography or context:

Region / context Lifetime probability Notes
SE Asia wet season, urban, 2 weeks 1 in 200 Southeast Asia accounts for ~50% of GeoSentinel traveler dengue cases; wet-season urban risk in Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines dominates.
Caribbean / Latin America peak season, 2 weeks 1 in 333 The Americas reported >13 million dengue cases in 2024, more than triple a normal year. Caribbean and Latin America together account for ~20% of traveler cases in GeoSentinel.
Off-peak travel to an endemic area 1 in 2,000 Dry-season or cooler-month travel cuts transmission roughly an order of magnitude; GeoSentinel reports ~3× lower proportionate morbidity in non-epidemic years.
Cruise ship port call only 1 in 100,000 Short shore excursions with limited overnight exposure approximate non-endemic baseline.
Long-term expat in an endemic urban area 1 in 20 Year-round exposure in a peak-transmission city can push annual infection odds into the percent-plus range; repeat exposure across serotypes compounds.

Risks at similar odds

Other risks with roughly the same likelihood — useful for calibration.

Health

Accidental fall

What are the odds of dying from an accidental fall?

Health

Marrow donation risk

What are the odds of serious complications from donating bone marrow?

Health

Brain aneurysm

What are the odds of dying from a brain aneurysm rupture?

Health

Unsafe imported products

What are the odds of being harmed by an unsafe imported consumer product?

Health

Childhood cancer diagnosis

What are the odds of a child being diagnosed with cancer before age 20?

Health

Counterfeit medicine

What are the odds of being harmed or killed by a counterfeit or substandard medicine?

Health

COVID-19

What are the odds of dying from COVID-19 over the course of the pandemic and endemic era?

Health

Sudden death during exercise

What are the odds of dying suddenly while exercising?

More Travel risks: Mishandled luggage Flight cancellation Blood clot (flight) Chagas disease Child bike trailer +27 more
Compare to:

Dengue is the rare travel-disease question where the intuitive answer — “small but real” — happens to be roughly correct for the modal Likelier reader. For a two-week trip to a dengue-endemic urban area during peak transmission season, the working estimate is on the order of 1 in 200 per trip for a symptomatic infection, with another 40–80% of infections running asymptomatic underneath that number per the CDC Yellow Book. Most symptomatic dengue is a miserable but uncomplicated febrile illness: fever, headache, joint pain, rash, a week of feeling terrible. Severe dengue — the hemorrhagic and shock variants — occurs in up to 5% of symptomatic cases globally but just ~0.45% of diagnosed cases in the GeoSentinel traveler series (Huits et al., 2023; 27 severe out of 5,958 cases over fifteen years). Per-trip severe-dengue risk at the headline figure is therefore on the order of 1 in 4,000, and per-trip mortality is roughly another order of magnitude lower than that.

What makes dengue unusual among travel diseases is the second-infection inversion. For almost every other infectious disease in this collection, prior exposure is protective: antibodies you already carry are the reason you have less to worry about next time. Dengue runs the opposite way. Antibody-dependent enhancement means that the antibodies generated by a first dengue infection can make a second infection with a different serotype worse, not better, and the severe-dengue case fatality rate in endemic-country pediatric second infections is the main reason dengue is a global public health priority at all. For a traveler this flips the usual mental accounting: the person who shrugs off a mild first episode on a Bali trip, and who might reasonably assume they are now immune, is the person the epidemiology would single out as higher risk on a future trip to Cartagena.

The backdrop also matters. Dengue activity in the Americas has expanded sharply since 2020. The WHO reported a historic high of more than 14.6 million cases globally in 2024, more than triple a typical year, and the US CDC recorded >1,400 travel-associated cases in each of 2022, 2023, and 2024 — roughly 50% above the prior 2016 peak of 919. Autochthonous transmission has been documented in Florida, Hawaii, Texas, Arizona, and California, including a Los Angeles County cluster in the second half of 2024. A traveler to the Caribbean or Latin America in 2025 is not facing the same per-trip risk profile as a traveler to the same destinations a decade ago; the headline figure on this page reflects the higher end of the 2010s range and the lower end of the 2023–2025 range, and whether it drifts up or down over the next few years will depend more on vector ecology and climate than on anything a traveler does.

Claim ledger

Every number below is what each source reported, with the verbatim quote we relied on and how we arrived at our figure. Click any link to verify directly.

  1. [1] US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) — Dengue — CDC Yellow Book (Health Information for International Travel)
    Dengue — CDC Yellow Book (Health Information for International Travel)
    Statistic
    ~390 million DENV infections and ~96 million symptomatic cases per year globally; 7,528 travel-related US dengue cases reported 2010-2021 with 3,135 hospitalizations and 19 deaths; >1,400 travel-associated US cases in 2019 and 2022-2024; 40-80% of DENV infections asymptomatic; up to 5% of symptomatic cases develop severe disease.
    Excerpt
    “"The incidence of dengue among travelers to the tropics has increased in recent years, and dengue burden continues to grow in Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and Asia, with estimates of 390 million DENV infections and 96 million symptomatic cases per year. … During 2010–2021, a total 7,528 travel-related dengue cases were reported in the United States; a total of 3,135 patients required hospitalization, and 19 died. … Travel-associated dengue case numbers also increased during 2019, and 2022–2024, with >1,400 cases reported each year, compared to a previous peak of 919 cases in 2016. … An estimated 40–80% of DENV infections are asymptomatic. … ≤5% of all people experiencing symptoms from dengue develop severe, life-threatening disease." ”
    Source data from
    2024-05-01
    Accessed
    2026-04-11 · archived copy
    Calculation
    CDC Yellow Book is the authoritative traveler-facing guidance. The ~96 million symptomatic infections per year across the ~4 billion people living in dengue-endemic areas implies a roughly 2% annual per-capita symptomatic rate averaged across endemic regions; travelers undersample the high-transmission rural pockets and over-sample urban areas and shorter exposure windows, so the per-trip figure for a two-week stay in a peak-season urban area lands roughly an order of magnitude below that (0.3–1%). CDC’s observation that US travel-associated cases jumped from ~919 in 2016 to >1,400 in 2019 and each year 2022–2024 anchors the “risk is rising, not falling” note in the body text. The 40–80% asymptomatic share is the basis for the ADE personal factor, and the ≤5% severe-dengue share is what takes the ~1-in-200 per-trip infection risk to ~1 in 4,000 per-trip severe-dengue risk.
    Independence
    CDC Yellow Book is the primary US traveler-facing clinical guidance, built from CDC dengue surveillance (ArboNET) and the peer-reviewed travel-medicine literature. Shares the Bhatt et al. 2013 modelled 390M/96M estimate with the WHO fact sheet below — treat the CDC/WHO modelled figures as one upstream; GeoSentinel (Duvignaud/Huits) is the genuine independent traveler-case stream.
  2. [2] World Health Organization — Dengue and severe dengue — Fact sheet
    Dengue and severe dengue — Fact sheet
    Statistic
    100-400 million dengue infections per year globally; modelling estimate of 390 million infections with 96 million symptomatic; 2024 historic high of >14.6 million cases and >12,000 deaths reported to WHO; 308 locally-acquired cases in France, Italy and Spain reported in 2024.
    Excerpt
    “"About half of the world’s population is now at risk of dengue, with an estimated 100–400 million infections occurring each year. … One modelling estimate indicates 390 million dengue virus infections per year, of which 96 million manifest clinically. … During 2024, ongoing transmission, combined with an unexpected spike in dengue cases, resulted in a historic high of over 14.6 million cases and more than 12 000 dengue-related deaths reported. … Dengue is spreading to new areas, including the European and Eastern Mediterranean regions. In 2024, 308 cases were reported to WHO from three European countries (France, Italy and Spain). … From January to July 2025, over 4 million cases and over 3000 deaths have been reported to WHO from 97 countries." ”
    Source data from
    2025-08-01
    Accessed
    2026-04-11 · archived copy
    Calculation
    WHO provides the global denominator and the 2024-2025 trajectory. The >14.6 million reported cases in 2024 — more than triple a normal year — is the main empirical basis for the “per-trip risk in 2024–2025 is higher than a decade ago” framing in the body. WHO case reports undercount the true infection total by roughly an order of magnitude (modelling gives ~96 million symptomatic vs ~14.6 million reported), but the year-over-year growth signal is robust. Independent of CDC: WHO pulls country-level case reports and the modelled Bhatt et al. burden estimate; CDC Yellow Book quotes the same modelled figure but uses its own US surveillance stream for the traveler-case counts.
    Independence
    WHO and CDC both cite the Bhatt et al. (2013) modelling estimate for the 390M / 96M figure, so that number is not independent between them. WHO’s 14.6M 2024 reported cases and CDC’s US travel-associated case counts come from different surveillance pipelines and corroborate each other on the 2024 spike.
  3. [3] Journal of Travel Medicine (Duvignaud, Stoney, Angelo, et al.) — Epidemiology of travel-associated dengue from 2007 to 2022: A GeoSentinel analysis
    Epidemiology of travel-associated dengue from 2007 to 2022: A GeoSentinel analysis
    Statistic
    5,958 confirmed or probable dengue cases in travelers evaluated at GeoSentinel sites 2007-2022; 50.4% acquired in Southeast Asia, 14.9% South Central Asia, 10.9% Caribbean, 9.2% South America; ~2% had complicated dengue; median travel duration 21 days; 67.3% tourism, 12.2% visiting friends and relatives.
    Excerpt
    “"This analysis included 5,958 travellers with confirmed (n = 4,859; 81.6%) or probable (n = 1,099; 18.4%) dengue. The most frequent regions of acquisition were South East Asia (50.4%), South Central Asia (14.9%), the Caribbean (10.9%) and South America (9.2%). … In Southeast Asia, annual proportionate morbidity increased from 50 dengue cases per 1000 ill returned travellers in non-epidemic years to an average of 159 cases per 1000 travellers during epidemic years. … the median travel duration was 21 days … the most frequent reasons for travel were tourism (67.3%), visiting friends or relatives (12.2%) and business (11.0%)." ”
    Source data from
    2024-10-19
    Accessed
    2026-04-11 · archived copy
    Calculation
    GeoSentinel is the closest thing the travel-medicine literature has to a representative traveler case series. The 50 vs 159 dengue cases per 1,000 ill returned travelers (non-epidemic vs epidemic years) in Southeast Asia is a proportionate morbidity, not an attack rate — it describes what share of sick returning travelers have dengue, not what share of all travelers catch it — but the ~3× swing between epidemic and non-epidemic years is what anchors the regional_breakdown ordering and the seasonal personal factors. Median travel duration of 21 days in this case series matches the two-week reference trip used for the headline figure.
    Independence
    GeoSentinel is a global network of travel and tropical medicine clinics with its own case-reporting pipeline, methodologically independent of CDC US surveillance and WHO country-level case reports. Genuine independent corroboration on the regional distribution of traveler dengue (SE Asia dominates, Caribbean and Latin America are next).
  4. [4] Annals of Internal Medicine (Huits, Angelo, Leder, et al.) — Clinical Characteristics and Outcomes Among Travelers With Severe Dengue: A GeoSentinel Analysis
    Clinical Characteristics and Outcomes Among Travelers With Severe Dengue: A GeoSentinel Analysis
    Statistic
    Among 5,958 dengue cases in travelers 2007-2022, 95 (2%) had complicated dengue, of whom 27 (31%) were classified as severe; 91% hospitalized; one death (non-dengue-related).
    Excerpt
    “"Of 5958 patients with dengue, 95 (2%) had complicated dengue. … 27 (31%) were classified as severe. … Seventy-eight (91%) patients were hospitalized. One patient died of nondengue-related illnesses." ”
    Source data from
    2023-06-20
    Accessed
    2026-04-11 · archived copy
    Calculation
    The Huits et al. analysis found 2% of traveler dengue cases had complicated dengue, and 31% of those complicated cases (27/95) met WHO severe-dengue criteria — i.e., 27/5958 ≈ 0.45% of all diagnosed traveler dengue cases were severe. This is much lower than the CDC Yellow Book’s “up to 5%” ceiling for symptomatic cases globally. The gap is consistent with the two populations: GeoSentinel travelers are adults with access to modern supportive care, while the global figure includes endemic-country pediatric second infections, which dominate severe-dengue incidence. The sole death was attributed to non-dengue-related illness. Applied to the headline 1-in-200 per-trip infection risk, the traveler severe-dengue risk lands on the order of 1 in 20,000–40,000 per reference trip, and per-trip mortality is roughly another order of magnitude lower.
    Independence
    Same GeoSentinel case pool as the Duvignaud et al. paper, so these two are not independent on the case count. They are cited for different purposes: Duvignaud for the regional distribution and traveler demographics, Huits for the severe-dengue and mortality fractions.

Summarize with AI

Pick an AI below to open with the prompt ready — or copy it and paste anywhere.

1 One click — opens with the prompt ready

Prompt is too long for one-click prefill. Copy it, then open one of the AIs below.

2 Or copy and paste into:
Preview the prompt

Help keep Likelier free

Want more risks covered? Likelier is free and ad-free. Every coffee funds new research, source archiving, and the fact-checking that keep the numbers trustworthy.

Buy me a coffee (opens in new tab)
412 risks with measured probability
1 in 10 1 in 100 1 in 1K 1 in 10K 1 in 100K 1 in 1M 1 in 10M 1 in 100M 1 in 1B certain rarer → Cosmetic surgery abroad risk — 1 in 10 Infant sugar/salt and adult disease — 1 in 10 Endometriosis — 1 in 10 Hair transplant Turkey risk — 1 in 10 Knee replacement — 1 in 10 Chronic painkillers — 1 in 10 Elderly abandonment — 1 in 9.1 Complete tooth loss — 1 in 9.1 Alzheimer's — 1 in 8.3 Sleep deprivation — 1 in 8.3 Smokeless tobacco — 1 in 8.3 Cycling w/o helmet — 1 in 8.0 Bruxism tooth damage — 1 in 7.7 Vision loss — 1 in 6.7 Hernia from lifting — 1 in 6.7 Hip fracture risk — 1 in 6.7 Regular drinking — 1 in 6.7 First heart attack — 1 in 5.9 Infertility — 1 in 5.7 5+ years paid LTC — 1 in 5.6 CTE (football) — 1 in 5.0 Major depression — 1 in 4.9 Hiking injury — 1 in 4.8 Infection from sharing food with child — 1 in 4.2 Lyme disease — 1 in 4.0 Loneliness & health — 1 in 3.8 Job loss & depression — 1 in 3.7 Inheriting AUD risk — 1 in 3.5 Alcohol use disorder — 1 in 3.4 Menopause CV risk acceleration — 1 in 3.0 Silent diabetes — 1 in 3.0 Flying with cold — 1 in 2.9 Tick illness (forest) — 1 in 2.9 Silent high cholesterol — 1 in 2.9 Grandparent loss in childhood — 1 in 2.8 Pacifier floor drop — 1 in 2.8 Drug-resistant infection — 1 in 2.6 No marrow match — 1 in 2.4 Nursing home admission — 1 in 2.2 Skipping dental checkups — 1 in 2.1 False-positive mammogram — 1 in 2.0 Regular smoking — 1 in 2.0 Travelers' diarrhea — 1 in 2.0 Adventure sports — 1 in 1.8 Family caregiver probability — 1 in 1.8 LTC need after 65 — 1 in 1.8 Widowhood probability — 1 in 1.7 Unprotected sex — 1 in 1.5 Silent hypertension — 1 in 1.3 Chronic back pain — 1 in 1.3 Hand hygiene — 1 in 1.0 Cancer (any) — 1 in 7.1 E-scooter no helmet — 1 in 4.5 E-bike no helmet — 1 in 4.0 Mishandled luggage — 1 in 3.7 Deer collision — 1 in 2.7 At-fault injury crash — 1 in 2.5 Flight cancellation — 1 in 1.8 Trip disruption: war or disaster — 1 in 1.7 Home burglary (global) — 1 in 9.1 Hitchhiking assault — 1 in 8.8 Mail check fraud — 1 in 7.7 Child sexual abuse — 1 in 6.8 Stalking — 1 in 6.2 Student sexual assault — 1 in 5.7 Domestic violence — 1 in 3.7 Night walk assault — 1 in 3.6 Bicycle theft — 1 in 2.9 Sexual assault — 1 in 2.9 Home burglary — 1 in 2.6 Sexual harassment (lifetime) — 1 in 1.6 Water scarcity — 1 in 2.5 Carrington-class solar storm — 1 in 1.9 WAIS tipping point — 1 in 1.1 Indoor cat escape harm — 1 in 10 Off-leash dog bite — 1 in 8.9 Rabbit dies in 4 years — 1 in 3.3 Dog bite (non-fatal) — 1 in 1.8 Hamster dies before teenager — 1 in 1.0 Vitamin D gap — 1 in 2.9 Undercooked food — 1 in 1.6 Raw meat cross-contamination — 1 in 1.4 Food left out — 1 in 1.2 AI voice scam — 1 in 2.9 Online scam loss — 1 in 2.5 Teen cyberbullying — 1 in 2.0 Kids & explicit content — 1 in 1.9 Data breach — 1 in 1.1 Miscarriage — 1 in 6.7 Teen suicide attempt — 1 in 5.6 Postpartum depression — 1 in 4.8 Painkiller before infant vaccination — 1 in 3.8 Excessive pregnancy weight — 1 in 2.6 Unvaxxed child & measles — 1 in 2.0 Elder fraud loss — 1 in 10 Pension fund collapse — 1 in 10 Personal bankruptcy — 1 in 10 Housing crash — 1 in 8.3 Crypto total loss — 1 in 6.7 IRS audit — 1 in 6.7 Visa overstay deportation — 1 in 5.6 Long term disability working age — 1 in 4.0 Student loan default — 1 in 3.8 Whistleblower retaliation — 1 in 3.2 Career obsolescence — 1 in 2.9 Forced job exit before retirement — 1 in 2.9 Retirement shortfall — 1 in 2.6 Divorce — 1 in 2.4 Burst pipe damage — 1 in 2.2 Workplace bullying — 1 in 2.1 Deportation (undocumented) — 1 in 1.8 Funeral cost shock — 1 in 1.8 Identity theft — 1 in 1.7 Credit card fraud — 1 in 1.5 School bullying — 1 in 1.5 Insurance claim denial — 1 in 1.4 Frontline soldier casualty — 1 in 1.3 Economic recession — 1 in 1.0 Stock market crash — 1 in 1.0 Hail roof damage — 1 in 3.0 Dry toilet paper harm — 1 in 100 Secondhand smoke — 1 in 91 Gaming disorder (adults) — 1 in 83 High-heel ER visit — 1 in 79 Child throwing object — 1 in 67 Medication reaction — 1 in 58 Cat litter toxoplasmosis — 1 in 48 Mental health LTD claim — 1 in 45 Drug overdose — 1 in 42 Benzo dependence — 1 in 40 Tap water lead — 1 in 40 Medication misuse — 1 in 35 Traumatic brain injury — 1 in 33 Hospital infection — 1 in 31 Air pollution — 1 in 29 End-stage kidney disease — 1 in 29 Traveler's diarrhea (water) — 1 in 26 Skiing injury — 1 in 26 Bipolar disorder — 1 in 23 Dental tourism complication — 1 in 20 Pet parasites — 1 in 20 Undiagnosed ADHD — 1 in 20 Adult-onset food allergy — 1 in 19 Indoor cooking smoke — 1 in 18 Non-Alzheimer's dementia — 1 in 17 Working-age disabling stroke — 1 in 17 Cannabis use disorder — 1 in 16 Stroke — 1 in 15 Parent death/disability — 1 in 14 Severe hearing loss — 1 in 14 Type 2 diabetes — 1 in 13 Appendicitis — 1 in 13 Untreated depression — 1 in 13 Untreated back pain disability — 1 in 13 Heart disease — 1 in 12 Medical error death — 1 in 12 Compulsive sexual behavior — 1 in 12 Eating disorder — 1 in 11 Hip replacement — 1 in 11 Kidney stones — 1 in 11 Sedentary lifestyle — 1 in 11 Salon infection — 1 in 11 Ovarian cancer — 1 in 91 Colorectal cancer — 1 in 77 Breast cancer — 1 in 59 Liver cancer — 1 in 59 Lung cancer — 1 in 56 Prostate cancer — 1 in 50 Melanoma (UV) — 1 in 29 Low-fiber CRC risk — 1 in 23 Red meat & CRC — 1 in 21 Charred meat & cancer — 1 in 20 Maintenance crash — 1 in 83 Driving on sedating meds — 1 in 77 Texting + driving — 1 in 56 Driving after cannabis — 1 in 53 Eating while driving — 1 in 53 Unbelted crash death — 1 in 53 Speeding 20% over limit — 1 in 48 Motorcycle no helmet — 1 in 45 Spaceflight (astronaut) — 1 in 42 Video watching + driving — 1 in 32 Drowsy driving — 1 in 26 E-scooter injury — 1 in 26 Cruise ship norovirus — 1 in 24 Driving at 0.10% BAC — 1 in 16 Catalytic converter theft — 1 in 83 Pickpocketed while traveling — 1 in 38 Stabbed in an assault — 1 in 37 Vehicle theft — 1 in 34 Street robbery / mugging — 1 in 26 Wrongful conviction — 1 in 24 Drink spiking — 1 in 17 Protest under autocracy — 1 in 12 AMOC collapse — 1 in 20 Sting anaphylaxis — 1 in 50 Cat collar injury — 1 in 25 Fish bone injury — 1 in 68 Restaurant food poisoning — 1 in 58 Vegetarian deficiency — 1 in 25 Intimate deepfake — 1 in 25 Social media problematic use — 1 in 13 Infant fall — 1 in 100 Childbirth death (SSA) — 1 in 55 Co-sleeping death — 1 in 43 Toddler stair fall — 1 in 37 Play swing & slide injury — 1 in 33 Autism diagnosis — 1 in 31 C-section complications — 1 in 29 Toy injury requiring ER (child) — 1 in 21 Preeclampsia — 1 in 20 Severe birth tearing — 1 in 17 Gestational diabetes — 1 in 13 Child fall head injury — 1 in 12 Sports betting financial ruin — 1 in 100 Fighter pilot death — 1 in 48 Commercial fishing career death — 1 in 45 Logging career death — 1 in 34 Dying without heir — 1 in 33 Medical bankruptcy — 1 in 25 Compulsive buying disorder — 1 in 20 Rental listing scam loss — 1 in 20 Mortgage foreclosure — 1 in 14 Musculoskeletal LTD claim — 1 in 14 Day-trading losses — 1 in 13 Extremist govt catastrophe — 1 in 13 Hurricane home destruction — 1 in 17 LASIK complications — 1 in 1,000 Infant pool submersion — 1 in 800 MS — 1 in 769 Workplace fatality — 1 in 690 Typhoid fever — 1 in 654 Unsafe imported products — 1 in 565 Brain aneurysm — 1 in 400 COVID-19 — 1 in 400 Fireworks injury — 1 in 385 Sickle cell disease — 1 in 365 Counterfeit medicine — 1 in 361 Spinal cord injury — 1 in 313 Childhood cancer diagnosis — 1 in 285 Next pandemic death — 1 in 208 Dengue (travel) — 1 in 200 Skipping daily showers — 1 in 200 Not scrubbing feet — 1 in 200 Marrow donation risk — 1 in 167 Schizophrenia — 1 in 143 Accidental fall — 1 in 135 Parkinson's — 1 in 125 Sudden death during exercise — 1 in 123 Suicide (US) — 1 in 121 Opioid addiction — 1 in 114 Tuberculosis (global) — 1 in 108 Radon cancer — 1 in 435 Testicular cancer — 1 in 250 Cervical cancer — 1 in 167 Pancreatic cancer — 1 in 125 Pedestrian death — 1 in 806 Motorcycle crash — 1 in 694 Boating drowning — 1 in 685 Driver kills pedestrian — 1 in 552 Phone-distracted walking injury — 1 in 400 EV battery fire — 1 in 333 Cyclist killed by car — 1 in 196 Hand-held phone call + driving — 1 in 143 Petrol car fire — 1 in 125 Self-driving car fatality — 1 in 115 Car crash — 1 in 105 Firefighter duty death — 1 in 455 Police duty death — 1 in 313 Homicide — 1 in 287 Pig-butchering scam — 1 in 106 Extreme heat — 1 in 333 Climate change death — 1 in 204 Swallowed bee/wasp — 1 in 500 Bat bite & rabies — 1 in 238 Mosquito-borne disease — 1 in 190 Food poisoning (global) — 1 in 317 Solar panel fire — 1 in 667 Untreated childhood scoliosis — 1 in 1,000 Child window fall — 1 in 855 Walker stair fall — 1 in 625 Baby walker injury — 1 in 455 Maternal mortality — 1 in 272 Untreated childhood flat feet — 1 in 250 Maternal age & birth defects — 1 in 200 Child death (<18) — 1 in 143 Caving career death — 1 in 167 EMS duty death — 1 in 794 Civilian war casualty — 1 in 499 Soldier in combat — 1 in 270 Mining career death — 1 in 214 Gambling financial ruin — 1 in 159 Wildfire home destruction — 1 in 120 Lightning home fire — 1 in 105 Malaria (travel) — 1 in 10,000 Infection from shared drink — 1 in 10,000 Chagas disease — 1 in 8,475 Wild berry fox tapeworm — 1 in 8,475 Schistosomiasis death — 1 in 6,667 Sudden death (young adult) — 1 in 3,922 Unsafe wiring — 1 in 3,390 Sepsis from wound — 1 in 2,857 Anesthesia awareness — 1 in 2,500 Heat stroke (outdoor) — 1 in 1,905 House fire — 1 in 1,818 Rabies from dogs — 1 in 1,449 Drowning — 1 in 1,379 Shallow-water diving SCI — 1 in 1,111 Choking — 1 in 1,099 EVALI vaping hospitalization — 1 in 1,064 Betel nut cancer — 1 in 1,290 Blood clot (flight) — 1 in 4,651 Killing a cyclist — 1 in 3,937 Teen road-crash death — 1 in 3,030 Child rear bike seat — 1 in 2,500 Child without restraint — 1 in 2,000 Fatal police encounter — 1 in 4,739 Honor killing — 1 in 2,381 Intimate-partner homicide — 1 in 1,767 Hurricane — 1 in 8,929 Drought famine death — 1 in 6,536 Blizzard death — 1 in 4,367 Earthquake — 1 in 3,802 Dog chocolate death — 1 in 2,000 Food poisoning (US) — 1 in 1,862 Fish mercury — 1 in 1,695 Phone/laptop battery fire — 1 in 1,136 SIDS — 1 in 7,143 Laundry pod ingestion — 1 in 6,494 Untreated infant hip dysplasia — 1 in 5,000 Pool drowning — 1 in 2,299 War (civilian) — 1 in 2,000 Fatal bee/wasp sting — 1 in 76,923 Anesthesia death — 1 in 50,000 Dog hot car death — 1 in 41,667 Anaphylaxis — 1 in 27,548 Chiropractic neck manipulation — 1 in 16,667 CO poisoning — 1 in 14,006 Hepatitis A (travel) — 1 in 12,500 Skipping allergy immunotherapy — 1 in 11,111 Acrylamide & cancer — 1 in 16,667 Bus crash — 1 in 100,000 Plane crash — 1 in 58,824 Child pedestrian (residential) — 1 in 45,455 Railroad crossing death — 1 in 20,704 Child bike trailer — 1 in 14,286 Acid attack — 1 in 89,286 Terrorism — 1 in 77,519 Child stranger abduction — 1 in 38,760 Stranger kidnapping — 1 in 35,211 Dowry death — 1 in 13,158 Accidental gun death — 1 in 11,299 Wildfire — 1 in 100,000 Tornado — 1 in 80,645 Tsunami — 1 in 52,632 Ocean drowning — 1 in 29,155 Flood — 1 in 20,202 Landslide death — 1 in 18,416 Supervolcano eruption — 1 in 12,376 Crocodile attack — 1 in 84,746 Bee sting — 1 in 78,927 Fatal scorpion sting — 1 in 26,110 Plastic container leaching — 1 in 16,949 Infant in car seat — 1 in 64,935 Bouncer chair fall — 1 in 60,606 Toddler choking — 1 in 50,000 Unsupervised infant choking — 1 in 50,000 Magnet ingestion — 1 in 12,048 Snorkeling death — 1 in 21,739 Pet in transport — 1 in 20,000 Landmine or UXO injury — 1 in 14,728 Vaccine reaction — 1 in 763,359 Aluminum & Alzheimer's — 1 in 169,492 Residential gas leak — 1 in 140,845 Child hot car death — 1 in 102,041 Glyphosate & cancer — 1 in 1,000,000 Teflon cookware cancer — 1 in 169,492 Roller coaster injury — 1 in 312,500 Cruise ship accident — 1 in 188,679 Ferry sinking — 1 in 133,333 Turbulence injury — 1 in 114,943 School shooting — 1 in 192,308 Mass shooting — 1 in 113,636 Nuclear accident — 1 in 833,333 Avalanche — 1 in 210,526 Lightning — 1 in 209,205 Snake bite — 1 in 884,956 Spider bite — 1 in 833,333 Hippo attack — 1 in 564,972 Dog bite — 1 in 142,045 Pesticide residue — 1 in 1,000,000 Dirty can illness — 1 in 200,000 PLA bioplastic harm — 1 in 169,492 Charger left plugged in — 1 in 200,000 Infant swing death — 1 in 714,286 Child blind cord strangulation — 1 in 416,667 Child plastic bag suffocation — 1 in 263,158 Button battery — 1 in 250,000 Inclined sleeper death — 1 in 238,095 Elevator/escalator death — 1 in 188,324 Japanese encephalitis (travel) — 1 in 2,000,000 Kid + front airbag — 1 in 10,000,000 Asteroid impact — 1 in 1,351,351 Banana spider eggs — 1 in 10,000,000 Shark attack — 1 in 5,681,818 Bear attack — 1 in 3,787,879 Wild berry poisoning — 1 in 2,222,222 Space debris hits property — 1 in 10,000,000 Piranha attack — 1 in 135,135,135 Phone at gas pump — 1 in 1,000,000,000 Phone on plane — 1 in 1,000,000,000 Alien contact — 1 in 169,491,525
Lottery jackpot 1 in 95,238