What are the odds of being mugged or robbed on the street?
Evidence quality 4.88/5
Eight-dimension review score against the quality rubric . Each dimension scored 1–5.
- D1 Source grounding
- 5/5
- D2 Source authority
- 5/5
- D3 Arithmetic
- 5/5
- D4 Uncertainty
- 4/5
- D5 Scope
- 5/5
- D6 Prose
- 5/5
- D7 Perception honesty
- 5/5
- D8 Caveat completeness
- 5/5
Lifetime probability · lifetime, US adult
1 in 26
3.8% lifetime chance
Most people overestimate this.
range 1 in 40 to 1 in 11
● your factors — click this risk ▾ to reveal
≈ As likely as
Perceived
Gallup's 2025 crime-worry poll finds 29% of US adults worry frequently or occasionally about being mugged, placing it in the middle tier of crime fears — below identity theft (69%) and car theft (39%), but above being murdered (22%) or sexually assaulted (21%). The worry level has declined modestly over the past decade even as robbery rates have fallen more sharply than public perception suggests.
Rough estimate: ~1 in 3 adults feel it could happen to them
Source: Gallup (2025) — Crime in U.S. Seen as Less Serious for Second Straight Year
Actual
~66.5 per 100,000 population per year (FBI, 2023)
US population (FBI UCR/NIBRS reported robberies, 2023)
Show derivation
The FBI reports a 2023 robbery rate of 66.5 per 100,000 population, which reflects incidents reported to law enforcement. This translates to roughly 223,000 reported robberies annually (66.5 × 3.35 million hundreds of population). However, the NCVS consistently shows that only about 42-64% of robberies are reported to police (42% in 2023, 64% in 2022). Using a conservative 50% reporting rate implies roughly 446,000 actual robbery victimizations per year, or about 133 per 100,000 (~0.00133 annual probability). But this includes all robbery types (commercial, home invasion, vehicle). Street/personal robbery accounts for roughly half of all robberies per NCVS location data. For total robbery exposure (including all types), compounding over 59 years: 1 − (1 − 0.000665)^59 ≈ 0.038 using the FBI reported rate. The NCVS-adjusted figure would be higher (~0.076), but we use the more conservative FBI-reported figure as the headline because it is more precisely measured. The uncertainty range captures the reporting-adjustment gap.
Caveats: The headline figure of ~1 in 26 uses the FBI-reported robbery rate, which captur…
The headline figure of ~1 in 26 uses the FBI-reported robbery rate, which captures only incidents reported to law enforcement. The NCVS, which includes unreported robberies, suggests the true rate is roughly double — implying a lifetime probability closer to 1 in 13. The wide uncertainty range (2.5% to 9%) reflects this measurement gap. "Robbery" in FBI/NCVS data includes all types — street mugging, commercial robbery, carjacking, and home-invasion robbery. Pure street robbery (the mental image most people have when asked about "being mugged") accounts for roughly half of all robberies, so the street-specific figure is lower. Geography is the dominant risk factor: county-level robbery rates span more than an order of magnitude, and urban residents face dramatically higher exposure. The long-term trend is strongly downward — FBI robbery rates have fallen roughly 60% since the early 1990s — but the 2022-2023 period saw a modest uptick per NCVS data. This entry is distinct from home burglary, which is a property crime without the face-to-face confrontation element.
Regional breakdown
The headline figure averages across very different populations. Here’s how the probability varies by geography or context:
| Region / context | Lifetime probability | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| High-crime urban metro (Detroit, Memphis, St. Louis) | 1 in 10 |
Top-decile metro robbery rates are 3-4x the national average |
| Suburban / low-crime metro | 1 in 50 |
Suburban robbery rates roughly half the national average per NCVS |
| Rural area | 1 in 100 |
Rural robbery rates are substantially lower; NCVS urban rate is roughly 3x rural |
Risks at similar odds
Other risks with roughly the same likelihood — useful for calibration.
What are the odds of a serious incident when hitchhiking?
What are the odds of a serious incident when hitchhiking?
Protest under autocracy
What are the odds of being physically harmed, arrested, or killed while participating in mass protests under an authoritarian regime?
Recently viewed on this device
Stored locally — clear anytime.
Pick challenger
The FBI reports a 2023 robbery rate of roughly 66.5 per 100,000 population, amounting to about 223,000 reported incidents. Compounded over 59 adult years, that gives a lifetime probability of approximately 1 in 26 (3.8%) for being the victim of at least one reported robbery — about three times the odds of being murdered but an order of magnitude less common than having your home burglarized. The NCVS, which captures unreported robberies, suggests the true figure may be closer to 1 in 13.
The mismatch between worry and probability is striking. Gallup finds 29% of Americans worry about being mugged, yet the FBI-based lifetime figure is under 4%. Even the more generous NCVS-adjusted estimate stays below 9%. The availability heuristic does much of the work here: mugging is a vivid, person-on-person crime that makes local news in a way that, say, identity theft does not. The long-term trend compounds the miscalibration — robbery rates have fallen roughly 60% since the early 1990s, but public worry has not tracked the decline proportionally.
The national average conceals large disparities. Urban residents face roughly two to three times the risk of suburban dwellers, and NCVS 2023 data shows Black Americans are more than twice as likely to be robbed as white Americans. Young men aged 18-24 are overrepresented among victims. The “robbery” category also includes commercial holdups and carjackings, so the pure street-mugging figure — the scenario most people picture — is roughly half the total. Rural residents face a fraction of the urban rate, making “1 in 26” a useful national benchmark and a poor personal estimate for anyone who knows where they live.
Claim ledger
Every number below is what each source reported, with the verbatim quote we relied on and how we arrived at our figure. Click any link to verify directly.
-
[1] Federal Bureau of Investigation — FBI Releases 2023 Crime in the Nation Statistics
FBI Releases 2023 Crime in the Nation StatisticsSee all 2 Likelier entries citing this source →
- Statistic
Robbery rate of 66.5 per 100,000 population in 2023; robberies decreased an estimated 0.3%- Excerpt
“"The FBI released detailed data on over 14 million criminal offenses for 2023 reported to the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program by participating law enforcement agencies. More than 16,000 state, county, city, university and college, and tribal agencies, covering a combined population of 94.3% of inhabitants, submitted data through NIBRS and the Summary Reporting System." ”
- Source data from
- 2024-09-23
- Accessed
- 2026-04-18 · archived copy
- Calculation
- FBI UCR/NIBRS estimates a 2023 robbery rate of 66.5 per 100,000 population (Statista, citing FBI data). With a US population of ~335 million: 66.5 × 3,350 ≈ 222,775 reported robberies. Annual per-person probability: 0.000665. Lifetime over 59 years: 1 − (1 − 0.000665)^59 ≈ 0.038. This is the reported-crime figure only; NCVS data shows substantial underreporting.
-
[2] US Bureau of Justice Statistics — Criminal Victimization, 2023
Criminal Victimization, 2023See all 2 Likelier entries citing this source →
- Statistic
42% of robbery victimizations in 2023 were reported to police, down from 64% in 2022; robbery increased 4% from 2022 to 2023- Excerpt
“"A smaller percentage of robbery victimizations that occurred in 2023 (42%) than in 2022 (64%) were reported to police. Robberies increased by 4% from 2022 to 2023." ”
- Source data from
- 2024-09-12
- Accessed
- 2026-04-18 · archived copy
- Calculation
- The NCVS captures both reported and unreported victimizations via household interviews. The 42% reporting rate for 2023 implies that for every robbery known to police, roughly 1.4 additional robberies go unreported. If ~223,000 reported robberies represent 42% of all robberies, total victimizations ≈ 530,000. At 530,000 / 335M population, annual probability ≈ 0.00158. Lifetime: 1 − (1 − 0.00158)^59 ≈ 0.089. This is the upper end of our uncertainty range. Black Americans experienced a 79% increase in robbery victimization from 2022 to 2023 per NCVS, and were more than twice as likely to be robbed as white Americans.
- Independence
- BJS NCVS is a household survey conducted independently of the FBI UCR/NIBRS law-enforcement reporting system. The two count robberies through entirely different pipelines — victim recall vs police reports.
-
[3] Gallup — Crime in U.S. Seen as Less Serious for Second Straight Year
Crime in U.S. Seen as Less Serious for Second Straight YearSee all 6 Likelier entries citing this source →
- Statistic
29% of US adults worry frequently or occasionally about being mugged (2025)- Excerpt
“"Fewer Americans say they worry about crimes, such as having a car stolen (39%) or their home burglarized (34%), being a victim of a hate crime (30%), or getting mugged (29%), attacked while driving (27%), murdered (22%) or sexually assaulted (21%)." ”
- Source data from
- 2025-10-30
- Accessed
- 2026-04-18 · archived copy
- Calculation
- Used for perceived-risk axis only. The 29% figure is the share of respondents reporting frequent-or-occasional worry about being mugged. This is well above the 3.8% lifetime probability from reported robberies, suggesting substantial overestimation of personal risk — consistent with the availability heuristic driven by news coverage of muggings.
- Independence
- Gallup telephone survey, independent of both BJS NCVS and FBI UCR. Measures worry, not incidence.