What are the odds of a child being strangled by window blind or roller shade cords?
Evidence quality 4.13/5
Eight-dimension review score against the quality rubric . Each dimension scored 1–5.
- D1 Source grounding
- 3/5
- D2 Source authority
- 4/5
- D3 Arithmetic
- 5/5
- D4 Uncertainty
- 4/5
- D5 Scope
- 4/5
- D6 Prose
- 5/5
- D7 Perception honesty
- 3/5
- D8 Caveat completeness
- 5/5
Lifetime probability · lifetime, subgroup
1 in 416,667
0.0002% lifetime chance
Most people underestimate this.
range 1 in 1,000,000 to 1 in 200,000
● your factors — click this risk ▾ to reveal
≈ As likely as
Perceived
Most parents who worry about toddler safety think about stairs, electrical outlets, and swimming pools. Window blind cords register as background furniture, not hazards. The few parents who do know about the risk often frame it as an artifact of older homes — "we got cordless blinds, so we're fine" — without realizing that most US homes still contain legacy looped-cord blinds in at least one room. The hazard is effectively invisible: a child can become entangled silently, and strangulation can be complete in minutes, often while the child is in a room the parent left for less than ten minutes. The gap between perceived and actual risk runs almost entirely in the direction of underestimation, not panic.
Source: editorial intuition, not polled
Actual
~9 deaths per year (US children under 5)
US children under age 5 with access to window coverings with cords
Show derivation
CPSC reports an average of approximately 9 children under age 5 die per year from window covering cord strangulation. There are approximately 19 million US children under age 5. Annual risk per child: 9 / 19,000,000 = 4.7e-7 per year. Over the 5-year at-risk window (birth to age 5): 4.7e-7 × 5 = 2.4e-6. This is the figure used as lifetime_us_adult (scope: subgroup_lifetime). The Pediatrics 2018 study (Onders et al.) found 271 deaths over 26 years (1990-2015) = ~10.4 per year, which is consistent with the CPSC figure and slightly increases the central estimate. The earlier JAMA 1997 study (Rauchschwalbe & Mann) found 0.14 per 100,000 children under 3 per year during 1981-1995, equivalent to roughly 12 deaths/year when applied to the ~8.5 million US children under 3 at the time. Using 9/year as the headline and 8-12/year as the plausible range yields uncertainty bounds of approximately 1.0e-6 to 5.0e-6.
Caveats: The ~9 deaths/year figure reflects a declining trend from the ~12/year estimated…
The ~9 deaths/year figure reflects a declining trend from the ~12/year estimated in the 1981-1995 JAMA study, likely due to partial industry adoption of safer cord designs following voluntary standards. The figure applies primarily to homes with pre-2018 looped-cord window coverings; cordless and motorized blinds sold under ANSI/WCMA A100.1-2018 or the CPSC's 2023 mandatory rule (16 CFR 1260, effective May 30, 2023) substantially eliminate the mechanism. The scope is subgroup_lifetime because this is a child-specific risk with a narrow age window (under 5); the figure should not be interpreted as a general adult lifetime probability. Reporting is likely incomplete — the CPSC notes that incidental strangulation deaths are underreported to surveillance systems, and the 1997 JAMA study specifically found the number of cases was higher than official records suggested.
Risks at similar odds
Other risks with roughly the same likelihood — useful for calibration.
Child plastic bag suffocation
What are the odds of a child suffocating from playing with a plastic bag?
Infant swing death
What are the odds an infant in a powered swing or rocker dies from strangulation or suffocation?
Inclined sleeper death
What were the odds an infant placed in an inclined sleeper (Rock 'n Play and similar) died from positional asphyxia?
Child window fall
What are the odds of a child being killed or seriously injured by falling from a window or balcony?
Aluminum & Alzheimer's
What are the odds of getting Alzheimer's disease from cooking with aluminum pots or foil?
Recently viewed on this device
Stored locally — clear anytime.
Pick challenger
About 9 children under age 5 die each year in the United States from strangulation in window blind, shade, and drapery cords — a figure that has held roughly steady for decades despite more than 40 years of CPSC warnings. A 2018 study in Pediatrics (Onders et al.) found 271 deaths over 26 years of surveillance, averaging about 10 per year. The age concentration is stark: 93% of fatal victims are 3 years old or younger, per the foundational JAMA study that tracked 183 deaths from 1981 through 1995. When entanglement does occur, survival depends entirely on speed of discovery — two-thirds of in-depth investigated cord entanglement cases were fatal, and the mechanism can progress to unconsciousness in minutes without the child making a sound.
The risk is almost entirely absent from popular parenting discourse, which is unusual for a hazard that kills more children per year than some risks that generate extensive safety coverage. The mechanism requires no product failure: a standard looped pull cord or continuous-loop cord forms a fixed noose that does not release under a child’s weight. Infants become entangled when cords reach crib mattress level; toddlers are suspended when they fall or jump from nearby furniture. Both scenarios are preventable through cord design rather than behavioral change — which is why the CPSC pushed for over a decade to move the industry away from accessible cords, culminating in a mandatory federal standard (16 CFR 1260) effective May 30, 2023, requiring operating cords on custom window coverings to meet the same specifications as stock coverings under ANSI/WCMA A100.1-2018.
The ~9/year figure applies specifically to homes that still have pre-2018 looped-cord blinds — which describes most US housing stock given that window coverings are rarely replaced unless damaged. Cordless and motorized blinds, now widely available at comparable retail prices, eliminate the mechanism entirely. The risk window is narrow: children under 1 are not yet mobile enough to reach cords independently, and children over 4 are generally capable of extracting themselves. The hazard is concentrated in the 1-to-3 age range, during the period of maximum mobility and curiosity and minimum self-rescue ability.
Claim ledger
Every number below is what each source reported, with the verbatim quote we relied on and how we arrived at our figure. Click any link to verify directly.
-
[1] U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) — Nearly Half of Incidents with Kids and Corded Window Coverings Resulted in Death — #GoCordless to Save Lives
Nearly Half of Incidents with Kids and Corded Window Coverings Resulted in Death — #GoCordless to Save Lives- Statistic
On average, about 9 children under age 5 die per year from window covering cord strangulation; 48% of 200+ incidents 2009-2021 were fatal- Excerpt
“"On average, about nine children under 5 years of age die every year from strangling in window blinds, shades, draperies and other window coverings with cords. There were more than 200 incidents involving children up to 8 years old due to strangulation hazards from window covering cords during 13 years from January 2009 through December 2021. A child died in 48% of those incidents." ”
- Source data from
- 2023-01-01
- Accessed
- 2026-05-03 · archived copy
- Calculation
- The CPSC's "about nine children under 5 per year" figure is used as the numerator. With approximately 19 million US children under 5 as the denominator, annual risk = 9/19,000,000 = 4.7e-7. Over the 5-year subgroup window: 4.7e-7 × 5 = 2.4e-6, which is the lifetime_us_adult value. The 48% case fatality rate among reported incidents documents that this is overwhelmingly a fatal hazard when entanglement occurs — most entanglements are not discovered in time.
- Independence
- Primary government surveillance data from CPSC's own incident reporting system and National Center for Health Statistics mortality data. Independent of the academic Pediatrics and JAMA studies below, which draw on different databases (NEISS and death certificates).
-
[2] Pediatrics (Onders, Casavant, Spiller, Chounthirath, Smith) — Pediatric Injuries Related to Window Blinds, Shades, and Cords
Pediatric Injuries Related to Window Blinds, Shades, and Cords- Statistic
16,827 ER injuries in children under 6 (1990-2015); 271 deaths over 26 years (~10.4/year); 67.1% of cord entanglement IDI cases were fatal- Excerpt
“"From 1990 to 2015, there were an estimated 16 827 (95% confidence interval: 13 732-19 922) window blind-related injuries among children younger than 6 years of age treated in emergency departments in the United States, corresponding to an injury rate of 2.7 per 100 000 children. Two-thirds of entanglement incidents included in the IDI database resulted in death (67.1%)." ”
- Source data from
- 2018-01-01
- Accessed
- 2026-05-03 · archived copy
- Calculation
- Onders et al. found 271 deaths over the 26-year study period = 10.4 deaths/year, consistent with the CPSC headline of ~9/year. The 67.1% IDI fatality rate for cord entanglement cases confirms that when a child becomes entangled in an operating cord around the neck, survival depends entirely on how quickly the entanglement is discovered. The 2.7 per 100,000 ER injury rate is for all window blind injuries; the strangulation/entanglement subset is smaller but far more lethal.
- Independence
- Peer-reviewed academic study using NEISS (CPSC's surveillance system) and the CPSC's In-Depth Investigation (IDI) database. Different methodology and data aggregation from the CPSC press release; independently confirms the ~10/year death estimate.
-
[3] JAMA (Rauchschwalbe, Mann) — Pediatric Window-Cord Strangulations in the United States, 1981-1995
Pediatric Window-Cord Strangulations in the United States, 1981-1995- Statistic
183 fatal strangulations 1981-1995; mortality rate 0.14 per 100,000 children under 3 per year; 93% of victims were 3 years of age or younger- Excerpt
“"A total of 183 fatal window-cord strangulations were reported for the years 1981 through 1995. The mortality rate was 0.14 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.10-0.18) per 100 000 persons (≤3 years old) per year. Ninety-three percent of victims were 3 years of age or younger. Pull cords on venetian-type horizontal window coverings accounted for 86% of documented injuries." ”
- Source data from
- 1997-05-01
- Accessed
- 2026-05-03 · archived copy
- Calculation
- The 1981-1995 JAMA data provides historical baseline and confirms the age concentration (93% under 3). The 0.14/100,000 rate applied to the ~8.5 million US children under 3 at the time implies ~12 deaths/year, somewhat higher than the current CPSC figure of ~9, likely reflecting partial replacement of looped cords by safer designs since the 1990s. The Rauchschwalbe/Mann study also established that infants became entangled primarily during nap time (cord loops reaching sleeping surfaces), while toddlers were more often suspended after falling or jumping from height near a window — two mechanistically distinct scenarios that the CPSC addressed in its 2018 ANSI/WCMA standard.
- Independence
- Historical JAMA study based on death certificate and CPSC DTHS data from 1981-1995. Entirely independent research team and data collection period from the 2018 Pediatrics study and 2023 CPSC press release.