What are the odds of being killed or injured by a landmine or unexploded ordnance?
Evidence quality 3.75/5
Eight-dimension review score against the quality rubric . Each dimension scored 1–5.
- D1 Source grounding
- 3/5
- D2 Source authority
- 4/5
- D3 Arithmetic
- 5/5
- D4 Uncertainty
- 3/5
- D5 Scope
- 4/5
- D6 Prose
- 4/5
- D7 Perception honesty
- 3/5
- D8 Caveat completeness
- 4/5
Lifetime probability · lifetime, global adult
1 in 14,728
0.007% lifetime chance
Most people underestimate this.
range 1 in 21,186 to 1 in 7,042
≈ As likely as
Perceived
Landmines and unexploded ordnance occupy a strange perceptual blind spot: widely understood as devastating when encountered, but filed as a problem of "other places and other eras" by most people outside affected regions. The Ottawa Treaty, signed in 1997, created the impression that the problem was being solved. It is not. Annual casualty counts have risen sharply since 2015, driven by new conflicts in Myanmar, Syria, Ukraine, and Yemen, and by the sheer persistence of ordnance laid decades ago in Cambodia, Laos, and Afghanistan.
Rough estimate: most people in unaffected countries would guess near zero; the problem is perceived as historical rather than ongoing
Source: editorial intuition, not polled
Actual
~5,757 casualties per year globally (2023, Landmine Monitor)
global adults
Show derivation
The Landmine Monitor 2024 report documented 5,757 casualties (killed and injured) from mines and explosive remnants of war in 2023. The 2025 report recorded 6,279 casualties in 2024. Using the 2023 figure as central estimate: annual rate = 5,757 / 5,000,000,000 = 1.15 × 10⁻⁶. Compounded over 59 years: 1 − (1 − 1.15e-6)^59 ≈ 6.79 × 10⁻⁵, i.e. roughly 1 in 14,700. The uncertainty band uses a low of ~4,000 casualties/year (pre-2020 baseline, low: 4.72e-5) and a high of ~12,000/year reflecting severe escalation scenarios in Myanmar, Ukraine, and Sahel (high: 1.42e-4; ratio ~3x). Given the sharp upward trend since 2015 and continued new use by non-signatories, the upper tail represents a plausible escalation path.
Caveats: Risk is overwhelmingly concentrated in a small number of conflict-affected and p…
Risk is overwhelmingly concentrated in a small number of conflict-affected and post-conflict countries. Myanmar, Syria, Ukraine, Afghanistan, Cambodia, Laos, and Yemen account for the vast majority of global casualties. For residents of countries that have never experienced significant mine contamination, personal risk is effectively zero. The casualty figures include both deaths and injuries — approximately 40% of recorded casualties are fatal. The figures also likely undercount the true toll, as many incidents in active conflict zones go unreported. Children are disproportionately represented among casualties because they are less likely to recognize ordnance and more likely to pick up unfamiliar objects.
Regional breakdown
The headline figure averages across very different populations. Here’s how the probability varies by geography or context:
| Region / context | Lifetime probability | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Myanmar (active conflict zones) | 1 in 526 |
2,029 casualties in 2024 alone; highest per-capita mine casualty rate in the world. The civil war has massively expanded mine use since 2021. |
| Post-conflict countries (Cambodia, Laos, Afghanistan) | 1 in 6,667 |
Legacy contamination from decades-old conflicts; casualties occur primarily among rural agricultural workers and children. |
| Countries without mine contamination | 1 in 1,000,000,000 |
Effectively zero risk; sporadic incidents involve historical ordnance from World Wars discovered during construction. |
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Landmines and unexploded ordnance killed or injured at least 5,757 people in 2023 and 6,279 in 2024 — the highest annual totals in years, driven primarily by the civil war in Myanmar, continued conflict in Syria and Ukraine, and the stubborn persistence of ordnance laid decades ago across Southeast Asia and Central Asia. The Landmine Monitor, published annually by the International Campaign to Ban Landmines (1997 Nobel Peace Prize co-laureate), is the authoritative global tracker. Its 2024 and 2025 reports document a clear upward trend: casualties have risen sharply since 2015, reversing years of post-Ottawa Treaty progress. At the 2023 rate, the average global adult lifetime probability of becoming a landmine casualty is roughly 1 in 14,700 — comparable to the lifetime risk of dying in a house fire for a US adult.
The perception gap is substantial. In countries without mine contamination, the issue is filed under “solved problems” or “distant conflicts.” The Ottawa Treaty’s success in stigmatizing antipersonnel mines created a narrative of progress that the data no longer supports. Twelve states — including Russia, India, Myanmar, and Pakistan — never signed the treaty and continue to produce or use mines. New contamination from active conflicts adds to the legacy burden: Laos alone contains an estimated 80 million unexploded cluster submunitions from a bombing campaign that ended in 1973. Cambodia, more than 40 years after the Khmer Rouge, still records hundreds of casualties per year.
Civilians make up 84-90% of all landmine casualties, with children comprising roughly one-third of civilian victims. The typical casualty is a farmer, herder, or child in a rural area who encounters ordnance while going about daily life — not a combatant on a battlefield. This makes landmine contamination one of the clearest examples of a risk that persists for decades after the conflict that created it, harming populations that had no role in the original military decision to deploy the weapon.
Claim ledger
Every number below is what each source reported, with the verbatim quote we relied on and how we arrived at our figure. Click any link to verify directly.
-
[1] International Campaign to Ban Landmines (ICBL) — Landmine Monitor 2024
Landmine Monitor 2024- Statistic
5,757 casualties from landmines and explosive remnants of war were recorded in 2023, with civilians accounting for 84% of casualties and children comprising one-third of victims- Excerpt
“"In 2023, at least 5,757 casualties were recorded from mines and explosive remnants of war, with 84% being civilians. Children comprised one-third of all civilian casualties where the age was known." ”
- Source data from
- 2024-11-20
- Accessed
- 2026-04-24 · archived copy
- Calculation
- The Landmine Monitor is the authoritative global tracker for mine/ERW casualties, published annually by the ICBL (1997 Nobel Peace Prize co-laureate). At 5,757 casualties/year over a global adult population of 5 billion, the annual rate is 1.15e-6; compounded over 59 years: ~6.79e-5.
- Independence
- The ICBL Landmine Monitor is an independent civil-society monitoring initiative, methodologically separate from the UN casualty reporting below.
-
[2] MAG (Mines Advisory Group) — 2025 Landmine Monitor out now
2025 Landmine Monitor out now- Statistic
In 2024, a total of 6,279 people were killed or injured by unexploded ordnance; Myanmar recorded 2,029 casualties, the highest in the world for a second consecutive year- Excerpt
“"In 2024, a total of 6,279 people were killed or injured by unexploded ordnance... Myanmar once again suffered the highest number of casualties, with 2,029 people killed or injured in 2024." ”
- Source data from
- 2025-11-01
- Accessed
- 2026-05-03 · archived copy
- Calculation
- MAG International (a leading humanitarian demining NGO) reports on the Landmine Monitor 2025 findings: 6,279 total casualties in 2024, with Myanmar alone recording 2,029. This corroborates the upward casualty trend and provides the 2024 figure, higher than the 2023 baseline used in our central estimate, supporting the upper range of the uncertainty band.
- Independence
- MAG is an independent demining organization; its reporting on the Landmine Monitor 2025 is methodologically distinct from the ICBL/ReliefWeb source above (different publisher, independent commentary on the same report).