Terms & disclaimer

Likelier publishes probability estimates for educational purposes only. The content is not medical advice, legal advice, financial advice, or safety guidance, and should not be used to make decisions affecting health, safety, property, or any other matter of material consequence. Consult a qualified professional for decisions that affect you.

Evidentiary standard

Every probability estimate is derived from at least two independent sources, with at least one from a primary study, government report, or peer-reviewed paper. Calculation methodology is disclosed per entry — including the verbatim excerpt from the source, the arithmetic used to derive native and normalized figures, and an archived snapshot of the cited page. See

These are population-level statistical estimates, not individual risk assessments. They represent a best-effort synthesis of published research, not original findings.

No personal risk assessment

All probabilities are population-level averages for a hypothetical typical adult. Individual risk depends on age, genetics, geography, behavior, occupation, and other personal factors not captured here. The numbers on this site cannot and do not assess any individual’s personal risk.

Medical disclaimer

Entries relating to health conditions, diseases, or medical procedures are statistical summaries of published research. They are not medical diagnoses, clinical assessments, or substitutes for professional medical advice. Do not alter any medical decision or treatment plan based on information from this site. Consult a qualified healthcare provider for questions about any medical condition.

Limits

• Probabilities are population-level, not individual.
• Uncertainty ranges are shown because the point estimates are not precise.
• Data ages. Some numbers are from surveys years in the past; every source has its date.
• Normalization assumptions (US adult, 59 years remaining, etc.) are simplifications.

Machine translation

Some content is available in languages other than English via machine translation. Translated content may contain errors. The English version is authoritative in all cases of discrepancy.

Corrections & suggestions

We correct errors publicly on the suggest page. If you spot one, open a GitHub issue from any detail page or directly in the repository.

License

Content is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0 . You can quote, remix, and redistribute with attribution and share-alike. The underlying source data retains its original licensing — we only speak for our own analysis and framing.

Copyright claims

If you believe content on this site infringes your copyright, contact us via GitHub issue with the specific URL and a description of the copyrighted work. We will respond promptly.

No warranty

Likelier is provided "as is", without warranty of any kind, express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement. In no event shall the authors be liable for any claim, damages, or other liability arising from the use of this site or its data.

Governing law

These terms are governed by the laws of Poland. Any disputes arising from the use of this site shall be resolved in the courts of Warsaw, Poland.