What are the lifetime odds of needing a knee replacement?
Evidence quality 4.5/5
Eight-dimension review score against the quality rubric . Each dimension scored 1–5.
- D1 Source grounding
- 4/5
- D2 Source authority
- 5/5
- D3 Arithmetic
- 4/5
- D4 Uncertainty
- 5/5
- D5 Scope
- 4/5
- D6 Prose
- 5/5
- D7 Perception honesty
- 4/5
- D8 Caveat completeness
- 5/5
Lifetime probability · lifetime, US adult
1 in 10
10% lifetime chance
Most people underestimate this.
range 1 in 14 to 1 in 7.1
● your factors — click this risk ▾ to reveal
≈ As likely as
Perceived
Knee replacement tends to be perceived as a procedure for a fairly small fraction of the elderly population — those with severe arthritis who have exhausted conservative options. Most younger adults do not think of it as something likely in their own future. The scale of the procedure has grown substantially over the past two decades, and awareness of its population-level frequency has not kept pace. It is among the most commonly performed major surgical procedures in the United States today.
Rough estimate: ~1 in 15 lifetime feels about right to most people
Source: editorial intuition, not polled
Actual
~10.38% of US adults age 80 have had a total knee replacement
US adults, Olmsted County population-based study (Maradit Kremers 2015)
Show derivation
Maradit Kremers et al. (2015, J Bone Joint Surg Am) report total knee arthroplasty (TKA) prevalence of 10.38% among US adults reaching age 80, higher than the 5.26% reported for total hip arthroplasty. UK general-practice data (Culliford et al., referenced in the epidemiology literature) estimate the lifetime risk of TKA at approximately 10.8% for women and 8.1% for men; a separate US estimate from NHIS data puts lifetime risk at roughly 1 in 12 adults (8.3%). Given the Olmsted County 10.38% prevalence by age 80 and continuing incidence beyond that age, a lifetime estimate of approximately 10% (1 in 10) for a US adult is well-supported. Women have somewhat higher lifetime risk (~11–13%) than men (~7–9%), reflecting greater knee OA prevalence, particularly post-menopause. Uncertainty range 0.07–0.14 reflects sex, obesity trends, and increasing procedure rates over time.
Caveats: Knee replacement is the most commonly performed major joint replacement procedur…
Knee replacement is the most commonly performed major joint replacement procedure in the United States, more frequent than hip replacement at every age stratum. The 10% lifetime estimate is based on Olmsted County prevalence data from 2010 (Maradit Kremers 2015) and is likely conservative for current cohorts given rising obesity rates and expanding surgical indications to younger patients. Kurtz et al. projected US TKA volumes could reach 1.26 million procedures per year by 2030. This entry covers primary (first-time) TKA only; unicompartmental knee arthroplasty and revision procedures are not included. Silent knee osteoarthritis is extremely common (symptomatic OA affects ~45% of adults over a lifetime) and precedes the subset that ultimately requires arthroplasty.
Risks at similar odds
Other risks with roughly the same likelihood — useful for calibration.
End-stage kidney disease
What are the lifetime odds of developing end-stage kidney disease requiring dialysis or transplant?
Recently viewed on this device
Stored locally — clear anytime.
Pick challenger
Knee replacement has quietly become one of the most common major surgical procedures in the United States. Population-based data from Olmsted County show that 10.38% of US adults reaching age 80 have already had a total knee arthroplasty — roughly twice the prevalence of hip replacement at the same age. UK lifetime-risk estimates put the figure at approximately 10.8% for women and 8.1% for men, consistent with the US data after adjusting for higher American utilization rates. Overall, approximately 1 in 10 US adults can expect to undergo a primary knee replacement at some point during their life, making this entry one of the higher absolute probabilities on this site.
The scale of the procedure is striking in context. The AAOS American Joint Replacement Registry captured over 3.7 million hip and knee arthroplasties between 2012 and 2023, with TKA making up the substantial majority of that volume. Annual US TKA volumes have been rising for decades, projected to reach over one million procedures per year by the early 2030s as the population ages and as surgical thresholds have lowered for younger, active patients who want to maintain quality of life rather than defer surgery. The underlying driver is knee osteoarthritis, which affects roughly 45% of adults over a lifetime — TKA is the endpoint of that degenerative process for the most severely affected fraction.
Individual risk varies substantially around the 1-in-10 average. Obesity is the dominant modifiable risk factor, with obese adults facing roughly 2.5 times the lifetime TKA risk of normal-weight adults. Prior knee injury is another major driver: adults with both an ACL tear and a meniscal injury face approximately four times the TKR risk of those without prior knee injury (lifetime risk approaching 22% vs ~5%). Female sex modestly elevates risk throughout adulthood, partly through post-menopausal hormonal effects on cartilage. Maintaining a healthy weight and avoiding high-impact trauma to the knee are the most tractable protective strategies.
Claim ledger
Every number below is what each source reported, with the verbatim quote we relied on and how we arrived at our figure. Click any link to verify directly.
-
[1] Maradit Kremers H et al., J Bone Joint Surg Am — Prevalence of Total Hip and Knee Replacement in the United States
Prevalence of Total Hip and Knee Replacement in the United StatesSee all 2 Likelier entries citing this source →
- Statistic
Prevalence of total knee replacement (TKA) in the US population was 1.52% overall in 2010; by age 80 it reached 10.38%. Women had higher prevalence than men at all ages.- Excerpt
“"[Paraphrase from abstract — full text paywalled] The 2010 prevalence of total hip and total knee replacement among the total U.S. population was 0.83% and 1.52%, respectively, with prevalence being higher among women than among men and increasing with age, reaching 5.26% for total hip replacement and 10.38% for total knee replacement at eighty years." ”
- Source data from
- 2015-09-02
- Accessed
- 2026-05-14 · archived copy
- Calculation
- TKA prevalence at age 80 = 10.38% for the US population (Olmsted County population-based cohort). Because TKA incidence continues beyond age 80 and annual volumes have risen since 2010, the lifetime risk from age 18 to death is estimated at ~10%. TKA prevalence substantially exceeds THA (10.38% vs 5.26% at age 80), consistent with the higher incidence of knee vs hip OA.
- Independence
- Maradit Kremers 2015 used the Rochester Epidemiology Project (Olmsted County, MN) population-based medical records linkage, independent of AAOS registry administrative data. The two data systems measure the same procedures through entirely different pipelines.
-
[2] Driban JB et al., Arthritis Care & Research (PMC) — Projecting Lifetime Risk of Symptomatic Knee Osteoarthritis and Total Knee Replacement in Individuals Sustaining a Complete Anterior Cruciate Ligament Tear in Early Adulthood
Projecting Lifetime Risk of Symptomatic Knee Osteoarthritis and Total Knee Replacement in Individuals Sustaining a Complete Anterior Cruciate Ligament Tear in Early Adulthood- Statistic
Lifetime risk of total knee replacement was 22% for adults with prior ACL tear and meniscal injury combined, compared to approximately 5% for those without knee injury. ACL injury without meniscal tear was associated with 16–17% lifetime TKR risk.- Excerpt
“"[Paraphrase from abstract — full text paywalled] The estimated lifetime risk of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis was 34% for cohorts with ACL injury and meniscal tear, compared to 14% for no-injury cohorts. The risk of total knee replacement was 22% in the ACL and meniscal tear cohort — nearly four times greater than the no-injury cohort." ”
- Source data from
- 2016-11-01
- Accessed
- 2026-05-14 · archived copy
- Calculation
- Used to quantify the personal_factor_multiplier for prior ACL/meniscal injury. 22% TKR risk for ACL + meniscal tear vs ~5% baseline (no injury) = approximately 4× relative risk. At the population baseline of ~10% lifetime TKR, the absolute risk for those with ACL + meniscal injury approaches ~20–22%.
- Independence
- Driban et al. used a simulation model based on existing epidemiological cohort data (Framingham OA Study, Johnston County OA Project), independent of the Olmsted County prevalence data used by Maradit Kremers.
-
[3] American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons (AAOS) — Highlights of the 2024 American Joint Replacement Registry Annual Report
Highlights of the 2024 American Joint Replacement Registry Annual ReportSee all 2 Likelier entries citing this source →
- Statistic
AJRR captured over 3.7 million validated primary and revision THA and TKA procedures from 2012 to 2023; TKA is the majority procedure type at participating centers.- Excerpt
“"The 2024 AJRR Annual Report contains 3,715,320 validated primary and revision THA and TKA procedures performed during years 2012 to 2023, with primary THA comprising 32.4% of procedures captured. The AJRR remains the largest orthopaedic and joint arthroplasty registry in the world by annual procedure volume." ”
- Source data from
- 2024-11-12
- Accessed
- 2026-05-14 · archived copy
- Calculation
- If primary THA is 32.4% of procedures, then TKA + revisions account for 67.6%. Primary TKA is a substantially larger share of total procedures than THA, consistent with the higher population-level TKA prevalence (10.38% vs 5.26% at 80). Used to confirm high annual volumes and the TKA > THA utilization ratio.
- Independence
- AAOS AJRR draws on administrative and clinical data from participating surgical centers, methodologically independent of the population-based Rochester Epidemiology Project.