What are the odds of dying while working as a commercial fisher over a full career?
Evidence quality 4.75/5
Eight-dimension review score against the quality rubric . Each dimension scored 1–5.
- D1 Source grounding
- 5/5
- D2 Source authority
- 5/5
- D3 Arithmetic
- 5/5
- D4 Uncertainty
- 5/5
- D5 Scope
- 5/5
- D6 Prose
- 4/5
- D7 Perception honesty
- 4/5
- D8 Caveat completeness
- 5/5
Lifetime probability · lifetime, activity-specific
1 in 45
2.2% lifetime chance
Most people underestimate this.
range 1 in 67 to 1 in 29
● your factors — click this risk ▾ to reveal
≈ As likely as
Perceived
Most people understand that commercial fishing is dangerous, partly because the industry has been dramatized in television programs covering Alaskan crab and halibut fleets. However, the precise magnitude of the risk tends to be underestimated. Viewers associate the danger with extreme weather events and distant Alaskan seas, underweighting the everyday vessel-disaster and man-overboard risks that occur along all US coastlines. No large-scale survey directly asks the general public to estimate career fatality odds for commercial fishers; perceived risk is classified as editorial intuition based on available media and occupational discourse.
Rough estimate: most people guess a small but real risk, perhaps 1–2% per year, without a clear lifetime figure
Source: editorial intuition, not polled
Actual
114 deaths per 100,000 FTE workers per year (US commercial fishing, 2000–2017 average)
US commercial fishing workers, NIOSH Commercial Fishing Incident Database 2000–2017
Show derivation
NIOSH's Commercial Fishing Incident Database recorded 791 work-related fatalities among US commercial fishers from 2000 through 2017 (18 years), yielding an average of approximately 44 deaths per year. With approximately 39,000 FTE commercial fishing workers in the US (BLS OES), the annualized fatality rate is 114 per 100,000 FTE workers (NIOSH, cdc.gov/niosh/maritime). A career is modeled at 20 years, consistent with the physically demanding nature of the occupation and median industry tenure. Compound probability over a 20-year career at 114 per 100,000 per year: 1 − (1 − 0.00114)^20 ≈ 0.0224. The scope is activity_specific_lifetime because this is per-career risk for a specific occupation, not a general US adult lifetime probability. The rate has varied substantially across years and regions (from ~86/100k in 2016 to ~204/100k in 2009), so the NIOSH 18-year average is used as the primary anchor; year-to-year variance is captured in the uncertainty band. The BLS notes the 2019 fatality rate for commercial fishers was more than 40 times the national average (all-worker rate ~3.5/100k → implied ~140/100k), consistent with the NIOSH long-run average.
Caveats: The 114/100k headline rate is a 2000–2017 long-run average and conceals substant…
The 114/100k headline rate is a 2000–2017 long-run average and conceals substantial year-to-year variance: the BLS CFOI records rates as low as 86/100k (2016) and as high as 204/100k (2009) for this occupation. The NIOSH CFID and BLS CFOI use different methodologies and denominators, so the two datasets are not directly interchangeable. The NIOSH figure uses coast-guard-incident reports as the numerator, which may capture fatalities missed by CFOI, while CFOI uses employer OSHA reports. The denominator (~39,000 FTE) is an estimate from BLS OES, not a head count, and may undercount part-time or seasonal fishing workers who nonetheless face full occupational exposure during their time on the water. The 20-year career assumption reflects the physically demanding nature of the work; workers with longer careers face a higher cumulative probability, and those who exit early face lower cumulative risk. The figure does not include non-fatal injuries, which are substantially undercounted due to the self-employed status of many commercial fishers.
Risks at similar odds
Other risks with roughly the same likelihood — useful for calibration.
Fighter pilot death
What are the odds of a US military fighter pilot dying in an aviation mishap or combat over a career?
Rental listing scam loss
How likely is a first-time renter to lose money to a fake-listing scam?
Medical bankruptcy
What are the odds of going bankrupt or suffering severe financial hardship due to medical bills?
Sports betting financial ruin
What are the odds of severe financial harm from regular sports betting?
Recently viewed on this device
Stored locally — clear anytime.
Pick challenger
Commercial fishing stands at the top of US occupational fatality statistics by a wide margin. The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health tracked 791 work-related deaths among US commercial fishers between 2000 and 2017, an average of roughly 44 deaths per year. Against a workforce of approximately 39,000 full-time equivalent workers, that produces an annual fatality rate of 114 per 100,000 workers — compared with 4 per 100,000 for all US workers in the same period, and approximately 3.5 per 100,000 as the most recent all-worker benchmark. The Bureau of Labor Statistics documented a single-year peak of 203.6 per 100,000 for fishers and related fishing workers in 2009, more than 50 times the national average for that year. Accumulated over a 20-year working career at the long-run average rate, the compound probability of dying on the job is approximately 1 in 45, or about 2.2 percent.
Vessel disasters account for nearly half of all commercial fishing fatalities (48 percent across 2000–2017), followed by falls overboard (30 percent) and onboard injuries from gear and deck equipment (13 percent). The NIOSH overboard fatality study, which examined 204 fall-overboard deaths from 2000 through 2016, found that 48.5 percent of fatal falls occurred while the fisher was working alone. Alcohol or drug use was documented as a contributing factor in 18.1 percent of cases, and inclement weather in 11.8 percent. Of those who fell overboard and drowned, only 2 percent were wearing an immersion suit properly. The picture this paints is not a story of exclusively extreme-weather catastrophe: a large share of commercial fishing deaths occur in routine conditions, driven by equipment entanglement, slippery decks, fatigue, and the absence of a second person to respond to a man-overboard emergency.
The risk is not evenly distributed across US fisheries. Alaska accounted for 27 percent of all US commercial fishing fatalities between 2000 and 2017, driven by the Bering Sea crab and Gulf of Alaska groundfish fleets operating in some of the most severe maritime conditions in the world. The East Coast produced the highest absolute count (33 percent), but across a larger workforce and more moderate sea conditions. Industry-wide safety improvements since the late 1990s, including the 1988 Commercial Fishing Industry Vessel Safety Act and subsequent USCG boarding and stability requirements, have reduced the fatality rate significantly from its historical peaks. The long-run average of 114 per 100,000 remains among the highest of any tracked US occupation, but it is substantially lower than rates documented in earlier decades.
Claim ledger
Every number below is what each source reported, with the verbatim quote we relied on and how we arrived at our figure. Click any link to verify directly.
-
[1] National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), CDC — About Commercial Fishing Safety — NIOSH Maritime Safety and Health
About Commercial Fishing Safety — NIOSH Maritime Safety and Health- Statistic
Fatality rate of 114 deaths per 100,000 FTE workers during 2000–2017; 791 total fatalities; 39,000 FTE workers- Excerpt
“"Commercial fishermen experienced a fatality rate of 114 deaths per 100,000 full-time equivalent (FTE) workers" during 2000–2017, "compared with an average of 4 deaths per 100,000 FTE workers among all U.S. workers." ”
- Source data from
- 2024-01-01
- Accessed
- 2026-05-10 · archived copy
- Calculation
- Primary native rate: 114 deaths per 100,000 FTE workers per year (2000–2017 average). Total deaths: 791 over 18 years ≈ 43.9 deaths per year. Worker population: ~39,000 FTE. Annual probability: 114/100,000 = 0.00114. 20-year career compound: 1 − (1 − 0.00114)^20 ≈ 0.0224 ≈ 1 in 45.
- Independence
- NIOSH Commercial Fishing Incident Database (CFID) is an independent surveillance system distinct from BLS CFOI; CFID captures coast-guard-reported fatalities that may not reach BLS CFOI records, and uses a different denominator methodology.
-
[2] MMWR Supplements / CDC NIOSH — Fatal Falls Overboard in Commercial Fishing — United States, 2000–2016
Fatal Falls Overboard in Commercial Fishing — United States, 2000–2016- Statistic
2016 work-related fatality rate 86.0 deaths per 100,000 FTE workers, 23 times higher than all US workers (3.6/100k); 204 falls-overboard fatalities studied 2000–2016- Excerpt
“"2016 work-related fatality rate (86.0 deaths per 100,000 full-time equivalent workers) 23 times higher than that for all U.S. workers (3.6)" ”
- Source data from
- 2018-01-19
- Accessed
- 2026-05-10 · archived copy
- Calculation
- The 2016 rate of 86/100k provides the lower-bound anchor for the uncertainty range (86/100k over 20 years → 1−(1−0.00086)^20 ≈ 1.7%). The NIOSH 2000–2017 average of 114/100k sits above this, consistent with 2016 being a relatively safer year. Falls overboard (27% of all industry deaths) are methodologically documented separately from vessel disasters (48% of deaths), confirming that the dominant causes are vessel loss and man-overboard incidents, not onshore or gear-handling accidents.
- Independence
- Peer-reviewed MMWR study using NIOSH CFID data; independently published analysis distinct from the NIOSH overview page, with separate methodology covering falls overboard specifically.
-
[3] Bureau of Labor Statistics (Beyond the Numbers) — Facts of the catch: occupational injuries, illnesses, and fatalities to fishing workers, 2003–2009
Facts of the catch: occupational injuries, illnesses, and fatalities to fishing workers, 2003–2009- Statistic
203.6 per 100,000 FTE workers fatality rate for fishers and related fishing workers, 2009- Excerpt
“"In 2009, the rate of fatal injury for fishers and related fishing workers was 203.6 per 100,000 full-time equivalent workers, which is more than 50 times the all-worker rate of 3.5 per 100,000." ”
- Source data from
- 2012-10-01
- Accessed
- 2026-05-10 · archived copy
- Calculation
- The 2009 rate of 203.6/100k provides the upper-bound anchor for the uncertainty range: 1−(1−0.002036)^20 ≈ 3.97%, rounded to 4%. Used to set the upper bound of the uncertainty band at 0.035 (hedging that peak years are extreme outliers). The BLS OES denominator for 2009 implied approximately 35,000–40,000 fishing workers, consistent with the NIOSH estimate of ~39,000 FTE.