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Health · reviewed 2026-04-17

What are the odds of catching an STI from a single unprotected sexual encounter with a new partner?

Evidence quality 4.5/5

Eight-dimension review score against the quality rubric . Each dimension scored 1–5.

D1 Source grounding
4/5
D2 Source authority
5/5
D3 Arithmetic
4/5
D4 Uncertainty
4/5
D5 Scope
5/5
D6 Prose
5/5
D7 Perception honesty
4/5
D8 Caveat completeness
5/5
Average 4.5/5
Direct evidence

Lifetime probability · lifetime, activity-specific

1 in 1.5

65% lifetime chance

range 1 in 2.5 to 1 in 1.2

lifetime, activity-specific each band = 10× rarer → zoomed to your factors See full scale →
certain 1 in 1K 1 in 1M 1 in 1B
1 in 1.0 1 in 3.4

● your factors — click this risk ▾ to reveal

≈ As likely as

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Perceived

Public perception of STI risk from a single encounter is shaped almost entirely by HIV awareness campaigns, which anchored the idea that unprotected sex is an acute mortal threat. Most adults substantially overestimate the per-act probability of HIV from heterosexual vaginal sex and substantially underestimate the per-act probability of HPV, which is the dominant contributor to composite STI acquisition risk. No rigorous population survey quantifies perceived per-encounter composite STI probability across pathogens, so this is marked as editorial intuition.

Rough estimate: Most adults perceive a 'significant' risk per encounter, heavily weighted toward HIV and heavily underweighting HPV

Source: editorial intuition, not polled

Actual

~1 in 11 per unprotected vaginal encounter with a random US adult partner (any STI)

Heterosexual US adults aged 18-59, random partner draw from general population

Show derivation

Scope is activity_specific_lifetime. The per-encounter composite probability of acquiring at least one new STI from a single act of unprotected vaginal sex with a random US adult partner is estimated at ~9% (1 in 11), calculated as 1 - product(1 - prevalence_i * transmissibility_i) across six major pathogens: HPV (~42.5% prevalence * ~20% per-act ≈ 8.5%), chlamydia (~1.8% * 4.5% ≈ 0.081%), gonorrhea (~0.3% * 20% ≈ 0.06%), HSV-2 (~12% * 0.15% ≈ 0.018%), HIV (~0.36% * 0.08% ≈ 0.00029%), syphilis (~0.05% * 5% ≈ 0.0025%). HPV dominates the composite, contributing ~94% of the total risk. The lifetime figure assumes 10 new partners over an adult sexual lifetime (roughly median for US adults per NHSLS/GSS data) with one unprotected vaginal encounter each: 1 - (1 - 0.09)^10 ≈ 0.61. Rounded up to ~0.65 to account for repeated encounters within partnerships and minor pathogen contributions not individually modeled (e.g., Mycoplasma genitalium, trichomoniasis). This is consistent with the CDC's estimate that ~80% of sexually active adults acquire HPV at some point, which alone implies a lifetime STI acquisition probability well above 0.5.

Caveats: These are per-act probabilities conditional on partner infection status weighted…

These are per-act probabilities conditional on partner infection status weighted by population prevalence. The calculation assumes a truly random partner draw from the US adult population, which does not reflect reality: sexual networks exhibit strong assortative mixing by geography, age, race, sexual orientation, and risk behavior. A person's actual risk depends heavily on who they select as partners and vice versa. All prevalence figures are US-centric; global prevalence varies enormously (HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa is ~25x the US rate; HPV prevalence is high everywhere). Per-act transmissibility estimates carry wide confidence intervals and vary by viral load, co-infections, mucosal integrity, and host genetics. The composite treats pathogen acquisitions as independent events, which is approximately but not exactly true (STI co-infection raises susceptibility to other STIs, particularly HIV). This is a probability calculation based on published epidemiological data, not medical advice.

Regional breakdown

The headline figure averages across very different populations. Here’s how the probability varies by geography or context:

Region / context Lifetime probability Notes
Unprotected vaginal, heterosexual, US adult — any STI composite 1 in 11 Per-encounter. HPV dominates (~8.5% contribution). Headline figure.
Same encounter with consistent condom use 1 in 25 Condoms ~50-60% effective against HPV (skin-to-skin pathogen), ~80-90% against bacterial STIs and HIV. Composite roughly halved.
Receptive anal, MSM, major US metro — any STI 1 in 4.0 HIV prevalence ~15% among MSM; gonorrhea/syphilis prevalence 5-10x general population. Per-act anal gonorrhea transmission ~30-50%. Composite far higher.
With PrEP — HIV-specific risk reduction 1 in 10,000,000 PrEP reduces HIV acquisition risk by ~99% (Grant et al. 2010, iPrEx). Applies only to HIV; no effect on other STIs.
Serodiscordant couple, known HIV+ partner, no ART — receptive vaginal 1 in 1,250 Patel 2014 per-act receptive vaginal: 8/10,000. With ART achieving viral suppression: effectively 0 (Cohen et al. 2016, HPTN 052).
HPV per-encounter (random US adult partner, unprotected vaginal) 1 in 12 42.5% prevalence × ~20% per-encounter transmission. Dominant pathogen in composite.
Chlamydia per-encounter (random US adult partner, unprotected vaginal) 1 in 1,235 ~1.8% prevalence × ~4.5% per-act male-to-female transmission.
Gonorrhea per-encounter (random US adult partner, unprotected vaginal) 1 in 1,667 ~0.3% point prevalence × ~20% per-act male-to-female transmission.
HIV per-encounter (random US adult partner, unprotected vaginal) 1 in 344,828 ~0.36% prevalence × 0.08% per-act male-to-female. About 1 in 345,000.
HSV-2 per-encounter (random US adult partner, unprotected vaginal) 1 in 5,556 ~12% seroprevalence × ~0.15% per-act during asymptomatic shedding. About 1 in 5,500.
Syphilis per-encounter (random US adult partner, unprotected vaginal) 1 in 40,000 ~0.05% infectious-stage prevalence × ~5% per-act with infectious partner. About 1 in 40,000.

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Compare to:

The per-encounter probability of acquiring at least one new STI from a single act of unprotected vaginal sex with a random US adult partner is roughly 1 in 11, or about 9%. That number is almost entirely HPV: with a population prevalence of ~42.5% among US adults 18-59 and a per-new-partner transmission probability on the order of 20%, HPV contributes about 8.5 percentage points to the composite. Every other pathogen combined adds less than one percentage point. Over a lifetime with 10 new partners, the probability of acquiring at least one STI compounds to roughly 2 in 3, which is consistent with the CDC’s observation that around 80% of sexually active adults acquire HPV at some point.

The perception gap runs in two directions simultaneously. HIV, the pathogen that dominates public fear, has a per-encounter heterosexual vaginal transmission probability of about 1 in 345,000 from a random US adult partner (0.08% per-act transmissibility times 0.36% population prevalence). That is less likely per encounter than being struck by lightning in a given year. HPV, the pathogen that dominates actual acquisition risk, barely registers in public risk perception. The asymmetry is almost perfect: the highest-consequence, lowest-probability infection absorbs nearly all the fear budget, while the highest-probability infection is treated as a background inevitability. This is textbook dread-risk bias, where perceived severity and perceived probability become entangled.

The population-blinded per-encounter rate is a baseline, not a prediction. Actual risk is driven by partner selection. MSM face a composite per-encounter risk roughly 3x the heterosexual baseline, driven by HIV prevalence of ~15% among MSM (vs ~0.1% among heterosexuals) and higher gonorrhea/syphilis prevalence. Condom use roughly halves the composite, limited by their partial effectiveness against HPV and HSV-2 (skin-to-skin pathogens that transmit from areas not covered by the condom). Male circumcision reduces the composite by about 30% for insertive partners. PrEP eliminates nearly all HIV risk but has no effect on the other pathogens that dominate the composite. The arithmetic is clear on one point: for a heterosexual encounter with a partner drawn from the general US population, the question is overwhelmingly about HPV, not HIV.

Related tidbits

Serious vaccine adverse events: roughly 1-2 per million doses. Unprotected sex STI transmission per encounter: 1-30%. People decline the 1-in-a-million protection while accepting the 1-in-3 exposure.

Read more → ✗ myth

Claim ledger

Every number below is what each source reported, with the verbatim quote we relied on and how we arrived at our figure. Click any link to verify directly.

  1. [1] AIDS / Patel et al. (CDC) — Estimating per-act HIV transmission risk: a systematic review
    Estimating per-act HIV transmission risk: a systematic review
    Statistic
    Per-act HIV transmission risk: receptive vaginal 8 per 10,000 (95% CI 6-11), insertive vaginal 4 per 10,000 (95% CI 1-14), receptive anal 138 per 10,000 (95% CI 102-186), insertive anal 11 per 10,000 (95% CI 4-28)
    Excerpt
    “"Sexual-exposure risks ranged from low for oral sex to 138 (CI 102-186) per 10,000 exposures for receptive anal intercourse. [...] Receptive vaginal intercourse: 8 (95% CI 6-11) per 10,000 exposures. Insertive vaginal intercourse: 4 (95% CI 1-14) per 10,000 exposures." ”
    Source data from
    2014-06-19
    Accessed
    2026-04-17 · archived copy
    Calculation
    Per-act receptive vaginal HIV risk = 8/10,000 = 0.08%. Combined with US adult HIV prevalence of ~0.36% (1.2M PLWH / 330M): per-encounter HIV risk from random partner = 0.0008 * 0.0036 = 0.0000029, or about 1 in 345,000. Even the higher receptive-anal figure of 1.38% * 0.36% prevalence = 0.005%, or ~1 in 20,000 per act with a random partner. HIV is a negligible contributor to the composite per-encounter risk in the general heterosexual US population.
    Independence
    CDC-authored systematic review of per-act HIV transmission studies; partially overlaps with Boily 2009 in included primary studies but uses a different analytic framework. The two meta-analyses converge on similar per-act estimates.
  2. [2] US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — Sexually Transmitted Infections Surveillance, 2024 (Provisional)
    Sexually Transmitted Infections Surveillance, 2024 (Provisional)
    Statistic
    In 2024 (provisional), over 2.2 million cases of chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis were reported: 1,515,985 chlamydia, 543,409 gonorrhea, 190,242 syphilis
    Excerpt
    “"There were still more than 2.2 million reported STIs in 2024. [...] Chlamydia cases declined for the second year in a row, down 8% since 2023. Gonorrhea cases declined for the third year in a row, down 10% since 2023. Primary and secondary syphilis cases declined for the second year in a row, down 22% since 2023." ”
    Source data from
    2025-09-24
    Accessed
    2026-04-24 · archived copy
    Calculation
    Reported cases understate true prevalence because most chlamydia and many gonorrhea infections are asymptomatic. Chlamydia point prevalence estimated at ~1.8% of adults (reported ~1.5M cases/year in 2024 provisional data, but screening captures only a fraction of infections; CDC estimates ~4M total infections/year against ~220M adults 18+). Gonorrhea point prevalence ~0.3% (reported ~543K cases/year, shorter duration of infection). Syphilis point prevalence ~0.05% (~190K all-stages cases but most are latent/non-infectious). These prevalence estimates feed into the composite calculation. The 2024 provisional data shows declines across all three bacterial STIs vs 2023.
    Independence
    National surveillance data from mandatory reporting; independent of the per-act transmission studies (Patel, Boily) and the prevalence surveys (McQuillan HPV, McQuillan HSV-2). Provides the incidence and case-count denominators for bacterial STI prevalence estimation.
  3. [3] NCHS Data Brief No. 280 / McQuillan et al. — Prevalence of HPV in Adults Aged 18-69: United States, 2011-2014
    Prevalence of HPV in Adults Aged 18-69: United States, 2011-2014
    Statistic
    During 2013-2014, any genital HPV prevalence among adults aged 18-59 was 42.5% overall (45.2% men, 39.9% women)
    Excerpt
    “"During 2013-2014, prevalence of any genital HPV for adults aged 18-59 was 42.5% (45.2% among men and 39.9% among women). Prevalence of high-risk genital HPV was 22.7%." ”
    Source data from
    2017-04-01
    Accessed
    2026-04-17 · archived copy
    Calculation
    HPV point prevalence of 42.5% among US adults 18-59 is the single largest contributor to per-encounter STI risk. Per-partnership HPV transmission probability is ~20% within the first few months (Burchell et al. 2006), implying a per-act rate on the order of ~20% for a new partner encounter (most transmission occurs rapidly after exposure). 0.425 * 0.20 = 0.085, or ~8.5% per encounter, which alone accounts for >94% of the composite STI risk.
    Independence
    NHANES-based population prevalence survey; independent of the per-act transmission studies and the bacterial STI surveillance data. Shares the McQuillan author with the HSV-2 data brief below but uses a different NHANES cycle and pathogen assay.
  4. [4] NCHS Data Brief No. 304 / McQuillan et al. — Prevalence of Herpes Simplex Virus Type 1 and Type 2 in Persons Aged 14-49: United States, 2015-2016
    Prevalence of Herpes Simplex Virus Type 1 and Type 2 in Persons Aged 14-49: United States, 2015-2016
    Statistic
    HSV-2 seroprevalence among persons aged 14-49 was 11.9% in 2015-2016, down from 18.0% in 1999-2000
    Excerpt
    “"During 2015-2016, prevalence of HSV-1 was 47.8% and HSV-2 was 11.9% among persons aged 14-49. Age-adjusted prevalence of HSV-2 decreased linearly over time by 5.9 percentage points, from 18.0% in 1999-2000 to 12.1% in 2015-2016." ”
    Source data from
    2018-02-01
    Accessed
    2026-04-17 · archived copy
    Calculation
    HSV-2 prevalence of ~12% combined with a per-act transmission probability of ~0.1-0.3% during asymptomatic shedding (Schiffer et al. 2014, J R Soc Interface; Wald and colleagues' longitudinal cohort data) gives a per-encounter risk from a random partner of ~0.12 * 0.0015 = 0.00018, or about 1 in 5,500. HSV-2 is a minor contributor to the single-encounter composite but compounds substantially over a lifetime of partnerships because shedding is intermittent and lifelong.
    Independence
    NHANES-based seroprevalence survey; shares the McQuillan lead author with the HPV data brief above but uses different NHANES cycles (2015-2016 vs 2011-2014) and a different serological assay. Provides the HSV-2 prevalence input to the composite calculation.
  5. [5] The Lancet Infectious Diseases / Boily et al. — Heterosexual risk of HIV-1 infection per sexual act: systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies
    Heterosexual risk of HIV-1 infection per sexual act: systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies
    Statistic
    Pooled per-act female-to-male HIV transmission in high-income countries: 0.04% (95% CI 0.01-0.14%); male-to-female: 0.08% (95% CI 0.06-0.11%); receptive anal: 1.7% (95% CI 0.3-8.9%)
    Excerpt
    “"Pooled female-to-male (0.04% per act [95% CI 0.01-0.14]) and male-to-female (0.08% per act [95% CI 0.06-0.11]) transmission estimates in high-income countries indicated a low per-act risk of infection in the absence of antiretrovirals. [...] The pooled receptive anal intercourse estimate was much higher (1.7% per act [95% CI 0.3-8.9])." ”
    Source data from
    2009-02-01
    Accessed
    2026-04-17 · archived copy
    Calculation
    Boily's meta-analysis corroborates Patel 2014 within overlapping confidence intervals. The high-income-country male-to-female rate of 0.08% is the figure used in the composite calculation for heterosexual vaginal sex. Multiplied by US adult HIV prevalence of 0.36%: 0.0008 * 0.0036 ≈ 2.9e-6 per encounter — confirming HIV's negligible contribution to the composite for population-blinded heterosexual encounters.
    Independence
    Lancet Infectious Diseases meta-analysis of observational cohort studies; partially overlaps with Patel 2014 in included studies but uses different pooling methodology. The convergence of the two meta-analyses raises confidence in the per-act estimates.
  6. [6] US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — Estimated HIV Incidence and Prevalence in the United States
    Estimated HIV Incidence and Prevalence in the United States
    Statistic
    Estimated 1.2 million persons living with HIV in the United States at end of 2022; approximately 31,800 new infections in 2022
    Excerpt
    “"An estimated 1.2 million persons in the United States were living with diagnosed and undiagnosed HIV at the end of 2022. [...] Approximately 31,800 people acquired HIV in the United States in 2022." ”
    Source data from
    2024-05-01
    Accessed
    2026-04-17 · archived copy
    Calculation
    1.2 million PLWH / 330 million US population = 0.36% adult prevalence. This is the population prevalence figure used to convert Patel/Boily per-act-given-infected-partner rates into per-encounter-with-random-partner rates. Note that prevalence is heavily concentrated among MSM (estimated ~15% prevalence among MSM vs ~0.1% among heterosexual adults), so the population-blinded 0.36% substantially overstates heterosexual encounter risk and understates MSM encounter risk.
    Independence
    National HIV Surveillance System data; independent of the per-act transmission meta-analyses and the NHANES prevalence surveys. Provides the population prevalence denominator used to convert conditional per-act rates into unconditional per-encounter-with-random-partner rates.

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412 risks with measured probability
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acceleration — 1 in 3.0 Silent diabetes — 1 in 3.0 Flying with cold — 1 in 2.9 Tick illness (forest) — 1 in 2.9 Silent high cholesterol — 1 in 2.9 Grandparent loss in childhood — 1 in 2.8 Pacifier floor drop — 1 in 2.8 Drug-resistant infection — 1 in 2.6 No marrow match — 1 in 2.4 Nursing home admission — 1 in 2.2 Skipping dental checkups — 1 in 2.1 False-positive mammogram — 1 in 2.0 Regular smoking — 1 in 2.0 Travelers' diarrhea — 1 in 2.0 Adventure sports — 1 in 1.8 Family caregiver probability — 1 in 1.8 LTC need after 65 — 1 in 1.8 Widowhood probability — 1 in 1.7 Unprotected sex — 1 in 1.5 Silent hypertension — 1 in 1.3 Chronic back pain — 1 in 1.3 Hand hygiene — 1 in 1.0 Cancer (any) — 1 in 7.1 E-scooter no helmet — 1 in 4.5 E-bike no helmet — 1 in 4.0 Mishandled luggage — 1 in 3.7 Deer collision — 1 in 2.7 At-fault injury crash — 1 in 2.5 Flight cancellation — 1 in 1.8 Trip disruption: war or disaster — 1 in 1.7 Home burglary (global) — 1 in 9.1 Hitchhiking assault — 1 in 8.8 Mail check fraud — 1 in 7.7 Child sexual abuse — 1 in 6.8 Stalking — 1 in 6.2 Student sexual assault — 1 in 5.7 Domestic violence — 1 in 3.7 Night walk assault — 1 in 3.6 Bicycle theft — 1 in 2.9 Sexual assault — 1 in 2.9 Home burglary — 1 in 2.6 Sexual harassment (lifetime) — 1 in 1.6 Water scarcity — 1 in 2.5 Carrington-class solar storm — 1 in 1.9 WAIS tipping point — 1 in 1.1 Indoor cat escape harm — 1 in 10 Off-leash dog bite — 1 in 8.9 Rabbit dies in 4 years — 1 in 3.3 Dog bite (non-fatal) — 1 in 1.8 Hamster dies before teenager — 1 in 1.0 Vitamin D gap — 1 in 2.9 Undercooked food — 1 in 1.6 Raw meat cross-contamination — 1 in 1.4 Food left out — 1 in 1.2 AI voice scam — 1 in 2.9 Online scam loss — 1 in 2.5 Teen cyberbullying — 1 in 2.0 Kids & explicit content — 1 in 1.9 Data breach — 1 in 1.1 Miscarriage — 1 in 6.7 Teen suicide attempt — 1 in 5.6 Postpartum depression — 1 in 4.8 Painkiller before infant vaccination — 1 in 3.8 Excessive pregnancy weight — 1 in 2.6 Unvaxxed child & measles — 1 in 2.0 Elder fraud loss — 1 in 10 Pension fund collapse — 1 in 10 Personal bankruptcy — 1 in 10 Housing crash — 1 in 8.3 Crypto total loss — 1 in 6.7 IRS audit — 1 in 6.7 Visa overstay deportation — 1 in 5.6 Long term disability working age — 1 in 4.0 Student loan default — 1 in 3.8 Whistleblower retaliation — 1 in 3.2 Career obsolescence — 1 in 2.9 Forced job exit before retirement — 1 in 2.9 Retirement shortfall — 1 in 2.6 Divorce — 1 in 2.4 Burst pipe damage — 1 in 2.2 Workplace bullying — 1 in 2.1 Deportation (undocumented) — 1 in 1.8 Funeral cost shock — 1 in 1.8 Identity theft — 1 in 1.7 Credit card fraud — 1 in 1.5 School bullying — 1 in 1.5 Insurance claim denial — 1 in 1.4 Frontline soldier casualty — 1 in 1.3 Economic recession — 1 in 1.0 Stock market crash — 1 in 1.0 Hail roof damage — 1 in 3.0 Dry toilet paper harm — 1 in 100 Secondhand smoke — 1 in 91 Gaming disorder (adults) — 1 in 83 High-heel ER visit — 1 in 79 Child throwing object — 1 in 67 Medication reaction — 1 in 58 Cat litter toxoplasmosis — 1 in 48 Mental health LTD claim — 1 in 45 Drug overdose — 1 in 42 Benzo dependence — 1 in 40 Tap water lead — 1 in 40 Medication misuse — 1 in 35 Traumatic brain injury — 1 in 33 Hospital infection — 1 in 31 Air pollution — 1 in 29 End-stage kidney disease — 1 in 29 Traveler's diarrhea (water) — 1 in 26 Skiing injury — 1 in 26 Bipolar disorder — 1 in 23 Dental tourism complication — 1 in 20 Pet parasites — 1 in 20 Undiagnosed ADHD — 1 in 20 Adult-onset food allergy — 1 in 19 Indoor cooking smoke — 1 in 18 Non-Alzheimer's dementia — 1 in 17 Working-age disabling stroke — 1 in 17 Cannabis use disorder — 1 in 16 Stroke — 1 in 15 Parent death/disability — 1 in 14 Severe hearing loss — 1 in 14 Type 2 diabetes — 1 in 13 Appendicitis — 1 in 13 Untreated depression — 1 in 13 Untreated back pain disability — 1 in 13 Heart disease — 1 in 12 Medical error death — 1 in 12 Compulsive sexual behavior — 1 in 12 Eating disorder — 1 in 11 Hip replacement — 1 in 11 Kidney stones — 1 in 11 Sedentary lifestyle — 1 in 11 Salon infection — 1 in 11 Ovarian cancer — 1 in 91 Colorectal cancer — 1 in 77 Breast cancer — 1 in 59 Liver cancer — 1 in 59 Lung cancer — 1 in 56 Prostate cancer — 1 in 50 Melanoma (UV) — 1 in 29 Low-fiber CRC risk — 1 in 23 Red meat & CRC — 1 in 21 Charred meat & cancer — 1 in 20 Maintenance crash — 1 in 83 Driving on sedating meds — 1 in 77 Texting + driving — 1 in 56 Driving after cannabis — 1 in 53 Eating while driving — 1 in 53 Unbelted crash death — 1 in 53 Speeding 20% over limit — 1 in 48 Motorcycle no helmet — 1 in 45 Spaceflight (astronaut) — 1 in 42 Video watching + driving — 1 in 32 Drowsy driving — 1 in 26 E-scooter injury — 1 in 26 Cruise ship norovirus — 1 in 24 Driving at 0.10% BAC — 1 in 16 Catalytic converter theft — 1 in 83 Pickpocketed while traveling — 1 in 38 Stabbed in an assault — 1 in 37 Vehicle theft — 1 in 34 Street robbery / mugging — 1 in 26 Wrongful conviction — 1 in 24 Drink spiking — 1 in 17 Protest under autocracy — 1 in 12 AMOC collapse — 1 in 20 Sting anaphylaxis — 1 in 50 Cat collar injury — 1 in 25 Fish bone injury — 1 in 68 Restaurant food poisoning — 1 in 58 Vegetarian deficiency — 1 in 25 Intimate deepfake — 1 in 25 Social media problematic use — 1 in 13 Infant fall — 1 in 100 Childbirth death (SSA) — 1 in 55 Co-sleeping death — 1 in 43 Toddler stair fall — 1 in 37 Play swing & slide injury — 1 in 33 Autism diagnosis — 1 in 31 C-section complications — 1 in 29 Toy injury requiring ER (child) — 1 in 21 Preeclampsia — 1 in 20 Severe birth tearing — 1 in 17 Gestational diabetes — 1 in 13 Child fall head injury — 1 in 12 Sports betting financial ruin — 1 in 100 Fighter pilot death — 1 in 48 Commercial fishing career death — 1 in 45 Logging career death — 1 in 34 Dying without heir — 1 in 33 Medical bankruptcy — 1 in 25 Compulsive buying disorder — 1 in 20 Rental listing scam loss — 1 in 20 Mortgage foreclosure — 1 in 14 Musculoskeletal LTD claim — 1 in 14 Day-trading losses — 1 in 13 Extremist govt catastrophe — 1 in 13 Hurricane home destruction — 1 in 17 LASIK complications — 1 in 1,000 Infant pool submersion — 1 in 800 MS — 1 in 769 Workplace fatality — 1 in 690 Typhoid fever — 1 in 654 Unsafe imported products — 1 in 565 Brain aneurysm — 1 in 400 COVID-19 — 1 in 400 Fireworks injury — 1 in 385 Sickle cell disease — 1 in 365 Counterfeit medicine — 1 in 361 Spinal cord injury — 1 in 313 Childhood cancer diagnosis — 1 in 285 Next pandemic death — 1 in 208 Dengue (travel) — 1 in 200 Skipping daily showers — 1 in 200 Not scrubbing feet — 1 in 200 Marrow donation risk — 1 in 167 Schizophrenia — 1 in 143 Accidental fall — 1 in 135 Parkinson's — 1 in 125 Sudden death during exercise — 1 in 123 Suicide (US) — 1 in 121 Opioid addiction — 1 in 114 Tuberculosis (global) — 1 in 108 Radon cancer — 1 in 435 Testicular cancer — 1 in 250 Cervical cancer — 1 in 167 Pancreatic cancer — 1 in 125 Pedestrian death — 1 in 806 Motorcycle crash — 1 in 694 Boating drowning — 1 in 685 Driver kills pedestrian — 1 in 552 Phone-distracted walking injury — 1 in 400 EV battery fire — 1 in 333 Cyclist killed by car — 1 in 196 Hand-held phone call + driving — 1 in 143 Petrol car fire — 1 in 125 Self-driving car fatality — 1 in 115 Car crash — 1 in 105 Firefighter duty death — 1 in 455 Police duty death — 1 in 313 Homicide — 1 in 287 Pig-butchering scam — 1 in 106 Extreme heat — 1 in 333 Climate change death — 1 in 204 Swallowed bee/wasp — 1 in 500 Bat bite & rabies — 1 in 238 Mosquito-borne disease — 1 in 190 Food poisoning (global) — 1 in 317 Solar panel fire — 1 in 667 Untreated childhood scoliosis — 1 in 1,000 Child window fall — 1 in 855 Walker stair fall — 1 in 625 Baby walker injury — 1 in 455 Maternal mortality — 1 in 272 Untreated childhood flat feet — 1 in 250 Maternal age & birth defects — 1 in 200 Child death (<18) — 1 in 143 Caving career death — 1 in 167 EMS duty death — 1 in 794 Civilian war casualty — 1 in 499 Soldier in combat — 1 in 270 Mining career death — 1 in 214 Gambling financial ruin — 1 in 159 Wildfire home destruction — 1 in 120 Lightning home fire — 1 in 105 Malaria (travel) — 1 in 10,000 Infection from shared drink — 1 in 10,000 Chagas disease — 1 in 8,475 Wild berry fox tapeworm — 1 in 8,475 Schistosomiasis death — 1 in 6,667 Sudden death (young adult) — 1 in 3,922 Unsafe wiring — 1 in 3,390 Sepsis from wound — 1 in 2,857 Anesthesia awareness — 1 in 2,500 Heat stroke (outdoor) — 1 in 1,905 House fire — 1 in 1,818 Rabies from dogs — 1 in 1,449 Drowning — 1 in 1,379 Shallow-water diving SCI — 1 in 1,111 Choking — 1 in 1,099 EVALI vaping hospitalization — 1 in 1,064 Betel nut cancer — 1 in 1,290 Blood clot (flight) — 1 in 4,651 Killing a cyclist — 1 in 3,937 Teen road-crash death — 1 in 3,030 Child rear bike seat — 1 in 2,500 Child without restraint — 1 in 2,000 Fatal police encounter — 1 in 4,739 Honor killing — 1 in 2,381 Intimate-partner homicide — 1 in 1,767 Hurricane — 1 in 8,929 Drought famine death — 1 in 6,536 Blizzard death — 1 in 4,367 Earthquake — 1 in 3,802 Dog chocolate death — 1 in 2,000 Food poisoning (US) — 1 in 1,862 Fish mercury — 1 in 1,695 Phone/laptop battery fire — 1 in 1,136 SIDS — 1 in 7,143 Laundry pod ingestion — 1 in 6,494 Untreated infant hip dysplasia — 1 in 5,000 Pool drowning — 1 in 2,299 War (civilian) — 1 in 2,000 Fatal bee/wasp sting — 1 in 76,923 Anesthesia death — 1 in 50,000 Dog hot car death — 1 in 41,667 Anaphylaxis — 1 in 27,548 Chiropractic neck manipulation — 1 in 16,667 CO poisoning — 1 in 14,006 Hepatitis A (travel) — 1 in 12,500 Skipping allergy immunotherapy — 1 in 11,111 Acrylamide & cancer — 1 in 16,667 Bus crash — 1 in 100,000 Plane crash — 1 in 58,824 Child pedestrian (residential) — 1 in 45,455 Railroad crossing death — 1 in 20,704 Child bike trailer — 1 in 14,286 Acid attack — 1 in 89,286 Terrorism — 1 in 77,519 Child stranger abduction — 1 in 38,760 Stranger kidnapping — 1 in 35,211 Dowry death — 1 in 13,158 Accidental gun death — 1 in 11,299 Wildfire — 1 in 100,000 Tornado — 1 in 80,645 Tsunami — 1 in 52,632 Ocean drowning — 1 in 29,155 Flood — 1 in 20,202 Landslide death — 1 in 18,416 Supervolcano eruption — 1 in 12,376 Crocodile attack — 1 in 84,746 Bee sting — 1 in 78,927 Fatal scorpion sting — 1 in 26,110 Plastic container leaching — 1 in 16,949 Infant in car seat — 1 in 64,935 Bouncer chair fall — 1 in 60,606 Toddler choking — 1 in 50,000 Unsupervised infant choking — 1 in 50,000 Magnet ingestion — 1 in 12,048 Snorkeling death — 1 in 21,739 Pet in transport — 1 in 20,000 Landmine or UXO injury — 1 in 14,728 Vaccine reaction — 1 in 763,359 Aluminum & Alzheimer's — 1 in 169,492 Residential gas leak — 1 in 140,845 Child hot car death — 1 in 102,041 Glyphosate & cancer — 1 in 1,000,000 Teflon cookware cancer — 1 in 169,492 Roller coaster injury — 1 in 312,500 Cruise ship accident — 1 in 188,679 Ferry sinking — 1 in 133,333 Turbulence injury — 1 in 114,943 School shooting — 1 in 192,308 Mass shooting — 1 in 113,636 Nuclear accident — 1 in 833,333 Avalanche — 1 in 210,526 Lightning — 1 in 209,205 Snake bite — 1 in 884,956 Spider bite — 1 in 833,333 Hippo attack — 1 in 564,972 Dog bite — 1 in 142,045 Pesticide residue — 1 in 1,000,000 Dirty can illness — 1 in 200,000 PLA bioplastic harm — 1 in 169,492 Charger left plugged in — 1 in 200,000 Infant swing death — 1 in 714,286 Child blind cord strangulation — 1 in 416,667 Child plastic bag suffocation — 1 in 263,158 Button battery — 1 in 250,000 Inclined sleeper death — 1 in 238,095 Elevator/escalator death — 1 in 188,324 Japanese encephalitis (travel) — 1 in 2,000,000 Kid + front airbag — 1 in 10,000,000 Asteroid impact — 1 in 1,351,351 Banana spider eggs — 1 in 10,000,000 Shark attack — 1 in 5,681,818 Bear attack — 1 in 3,787,879 Wild berry poisoning — 1 in 2,222,222 Space debris hits property — 1 in 10,000,000 Piranha attack — 1 in 135,135,135 Phone at gas pump — 1 in 1,000,000,000 Phone on plane — 1 in 1,000,000,000 Alien contact — 1 in 169,491,525
Lottery jackpot 1 in 95,238