Reference source Gallup

Crime in U.S. Seen as Less Serious for Second Straight Year

Cited in 6 Likelier entries (6 risks, 0 decisions).

Used in 6 entries

For each citing entry, the verbatim excerpt and Likelier's calculation notes (how the source's number was converted to the lifetime-probability framing) are shown below. Click through to read the full claim ledger.

[1] Home burglary Risk

Statistic

34% of US adults worry frequently or occasionally about having their home burglarized (October 2025)

“"Fewer Americans say they worry about crimes, such as having a car stolen (39%) or their home burglarized (34%), being a victim of a hate crime (30%), or getting mugged (29%), attacked while driving (27%), murdered (22%) or sexually assaulted (21%)."”
Calculation notes
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Used for the perceived-risk side only. The 34% figure is the fraction of respondents reporting frequent-or-occasional worry, not an elicited probability. It places home burglary in the middle tier of Gallup's crime-worry hierarchy.
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Independence note: Gallup telephone survey data, entirely separate from both BJS NCVS household victimization sampling and FBI UCR police-report aggregation. Measures public worry, not incidence — included only for the perceived-risk axis and not for any probability estimate.

Source date: 2025-10-30 · Accessed: 2026-04-11
[2] Homicide Risk

Statistic

22% of US adults worry frequently or occasionally about being murdered (October 2025)

“"Fewer Americans say they worry about crimes, such as having a car stolen (39%) or their home burglarized (34%), being a victim of a hate crime (30%), or getting mugged (29%), attacked while driving (27%), murdered (22%) or sexually assaulted (21%)."”
Calculation notes
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Used for the perceived-risk side only. The 22% figure is the fraction of respondents reporting frequent-or-occasional worry, not an elicited probability. There is no direct conversion to a subjective lifetime probability, but it is the best time-series instrument for tracking US homicide-worry at the national level.
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Independence note: Gallup conducts an independent annual telephone/web survey; methodologically independent of both CDC vital-statistics and BJS victimization data.

Source date: 2025-10-30 · Accessed: 2026-04-11
[3] Identity theft Risk

Statistic

69% of US adults worry frequently or occasionally about being the victim of identity theft (October 2024 wave)

“"Overall, Americans worry most about being the victim of identity theft (69%) and being tricked into providing financial information to scammers (53%)."”
Calculation notes
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Used for the perceived-risk side only. Identity theft has consistently topped Gallup's crime-worry list since the question was first asked, almost always at or above two-thirds of respondents. Unlike most Likelier entries the perceived figure and the measured figure are within a factor of two of each other on a lifetime basis.
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Independence note: Gallup telephone polling, entirely separate from BJS NCVS household victimization sampling and FTC Sentinel complaint data. Used only for the perceived-risk axis — measures public worry, not incidence.

Source date: 2025-10-30 · Accessed: 2026-04-11
[4] Online scam loss Risk

Statistic

53% of US adults worry frequently or occasionally about being tricked into providing financial information to scammers (October 2025)

“"Overall, Americans worry most about being the victim of identity theft (69%) and being tricked into providing financial information to scammers (53%)."”
Calculation notes
```
Used for the perceived-risk side only. Scam worry at 53% is the second-highest item on Gallup's crime-worry list, behind only identity theft (69%). These two financial-crime items are the only ones where a majority of Americans express frequent or occasional worry.
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Independence note: Gallup telephone polling, entirely separate from FTC complaint data and AARP panel survey. Used only for the perceived-risk axis (measures worry, not incidence) and does not feed into the probability estimate.

Source date: 2025-10-30 · Accessed: 2026-04-11
[5] Sexual harassment (lifetime) Risk

Statistic

21% of US adults worry frequently or occasionally about being sexually assaulted (2025); 38% of women vs 4% of men

“"Fewer Americans say they worry about crimes, such as having a car stolen (39%) or their home burglarized (34%), being a victim of a hate crime (30%), or getting mugged (29%), attacked while driving (27%), murdered (22%) or sexually assaulted (21%)."”
Calculation notes
```
Used for perceived-risk axis only. The 21% figure is the population-level share reporting frequent-or-occasional worry about sexual assault. Women are 34 percentage points more likely to worry than men (38% vs 4%). This is worry about assault specifically, not the broader harassment category.
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Independence note: Gallup telephone survey, independent of both SSH/GfK and CDC NISVS. Measures worry, not prevalence.

Source date: 2025-10-30 · Accessed: 2026-04-18
[6] Street robbery / mugging Risk

Statistic

29% of US adults worry frequently or occasionally about being mugged (2025)

“"Fewer Americans say they worry about crimes, such as having a car stolen (39%) or their home burglarized (34%), being a victim of a hate crime (30%), or getting mugged (29%), attacked while driving (27%), murdered (22%) or sexually assaulted (21%)."”
Calculation notes
```
Used for perceived-risk axis only. The 29% figure is the share of respondents reporting frequent-or-occasional worry about being mugged. This is well above the 3.8% lifetime probability from reported robberies, suggesting substantial overestimation of personal risk — consistent with the availability heuristic driven by news coverage of muggings.
```
Independence note: Gallup telephone survey, independent of both BJS NCVS and FBI UCR. Measures worry, not incidence.

Source date: 2025-10-30 · Accessed: 2026-04-18