Criminal Victimization, 2023
Cited in 2 Likelier entries (2 risks, 0 decisions).
Used in 2 entries
For each citing entry, the verbatim excerpt and Likelier's calculation notes (how the source's number was converted to the lifetime-probability framing) are shown below. Click through to read the full claim ledger.
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- Statistic
Property victimization rate of 102.2 per 1,000 households in 2023; burglary/trespassing component approximately 10.1 per 1,000 households
“"In 2023, the rate of property victimization was 102.2 per 1,000 households, which was not significantly different from 2022. Property victimization includes burglary or trespassing, motor vehicle theft, and other types of household theft."”
Calculation notes
BJS NCVS Criminal Victimization 2023 reports total property victimization at 102.2 per 1,000 households. The burglary/trespassing subcategory accounts for approximately 10.1 per 1,000 (~1.01% of households per year), based on the NCVS detailed data tables. Over 59 adult years at ~0.85% per year (averaging 2022-2023): 1 − (1 − 0.0085)^59 ≈ 0.39. The NCVS captures both reported and unreported victimizations via household interviews, making it the most complete US household burglary measure.
Independence note: BJS NCVS is a household survey conducted independently of the FBI UCR/NIBRS law-enforcement reporting system. The two count burglaries through entirely different pipelines — victim recall vs police reports — and the NCVS typically yields higher counts because it captures unreported incidents.
Source date: 2024-09-12 · Accessed: 2026-04-11
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- Statistic
42% of robbery victimizations in 2023 were reported to police, down from 64% in 2022; robbery increased 4% from 2022 to 2023
“"A smaller percentage of robbery victimizations that occurred in 2023 (42%) than in 2022 (64%) were reported to police. Robberies increased by 4% from 2022 to 2023."”
Calculation notes
The NCVS captures both reported and unreported victimizations via household interviews. The 42% reporting rate for 2023 implies that for every robbery known to police, roughly 1.4 additional robberies go unreported. If ~223,000 reported robberies represent 42% of all robberies, total victimizations ≈ 530,000. At 530,000 / 335M population, annual probability ≈ 0.00158. Lifetime: 1 − (1 − 0.00158)^59 ≈ 0.089. This is the upper end of our uncertainty range. Black Americans experienced a 79% increase in robbery victimization from 2022 to 2023 per NCVS, and were more than twice as likely to be robbed as white Americans.
Independence note: BJS NCVS is a household survey conducted independently of the FBI UCR/NIBRS law-enforcement reporting system. The two count robberies through entirely different pipelines — victim recall vs police reports.
Source date: 2024-09-12 · Accessed: 2026-04-18
