What are the odds of your home being burglarized?
Evidence quality 4.75/5
Eight-dimension review score against the quality rubric . Each dimension scored 1–5.
- D1 Source grounding
- 5/5
- D2 Source authority
- 5/5
- D3 Arithmetic
- 5/5
- D4 Uncertainty
- 5/5
- D5 Scope
- 5/5
- D6 Prose
- 4/5
- D7 Perception honesty
- 4/5
- D8 Caveat completeness
- 5/5
Lifetime probability · lifetime, US adult
1 in 2.6
39% lifetime chance
range 1 in 4.0 to 1 in 1.8
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≈ As likely as
Perceived
Gallup's annual crime-worry poll consistently places home burglary in the middle of the list. In the October 2025 wave, 34% of US adults said they worry frequently or occasionally about having their home burglarized — below identity theft (69%) and car theft (39%), but above being mugged (29%) or murdered (22%). The worry level is broadly stable year-over-year even as measured burglary rates have fallen sharply for three decades.
Rough estimate: ~1 in 3 lifetime feels about right to many respondents
Source: Gallup (2025) — Crime in U.S. Seen as Less Serious for Second Straight Year
Actual
~10.1 per 1,000 households per year
US households (NCVS, includes reported and unreported)
Show derivation
The NCVS burglary/trespassing rate for 2023 is approximately 10.1 per 1,000 households per year (~1.01%), down from roughly 28 per 1,000 in 1993. Using the recent rate of ~0.85% per household per year (averaging 2022-2023 NCVS data) and compounding over 59 years of adult life: 1 − (1 − 0.0085)^59 ≈ 0.39. This assumes a constant annual hazard at the current (historically low) rate, which is conservative given the three-decade declining trend. Victimizations are not independent across years — households in high-crime areas or with prior burglaries face elevated repeat risk — but for a population-average first-ever-burglary estimate, the naive compounding is a reasonable upper-middle bound.
Caveats: This is not a death risk; it is the probability that a US household experiences …
This is not a death risk; it is the probability that a US household experiences at least one burglary or unlawful trespass during the householder's adult lifetime. The NCVS definition of "burglary or trespassing" is broader than the common mental image of a break-in while away — it includes unlawful entries where nothing is stolen and trespassing incidents that may involve no forced entry. The FBI's narrower UCR definition yields a lower count (~853,000 reported burglaries in 2023 vs the NCVS-implied ~1.3 million including unreported). The lifetime figure is highly sensitive to the assumed annual rate: at the 1993 NCVS peak (~28 per 1,000), the naive lifetime calculation would exceed 80%; at the current rate (~10 per 1,000), it is roughly 40%. The long-term declining trend — burglary down 75% since 1993 per FBI data — means the actual lifetime experience for someone turning 18 today will almost certainly be lower than 39%, but the population of adults alive now includes decades of exposure at higher rates. Geography and income are the largest sources of heterogeneity: county-level burglary rates span more than an order of magnitude.
Regional breakdown
The headline figure averages across very different populations. Here’s how the probability varies by geography or context:
| Region / context | Lifetime probability | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| high-burglary MSA (Memphis, Albuquerque, Indianapolis) | 1 in 1.7 |
top-decile metros have annual rates 2-3x the national average; lifetime exposure approaches ~60% |
| low-burglary region (Northeast rural, wealthy suburbs) | 1 in 5.0 |
bottom-decile rates roughly one-third the national average |
| apartment dweller with doorman or secured entry | 1 in 6.7 |
controlled-access buildings have substantially lower burglary rates than single-family homes |
Risks at similar odds
Other risks with roughly the same likelihood — useful for calibration.
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Home burglary is one of the more common events on this site. The Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Crime Victimization Survey puts the recent household burglary/trespassing rate at roughly 10 per 1,000 households per year, which translates to about 1.3 million victimizations annually across the nation’s ~134 million households. Compounded over a 59-year adult life at the current rate, a US household has roughly a 1 in 2.5 chance of experiencing at least one burglary — an order of magnitude more likely than being murdered, though still below the lifetime odds of identity theft.
What makes burglary unusual among crime fears is that the worry is roughly calibrated to the actual risk. Gallup finds 34% of Americans worry about it, and the lifetime probability is in the same ballpark. But the trend is the part most people miss: FBI data shows burglary rates have fallen 75% since 1993, from over 2.1 million reported incidents to fewer than 780,000 in 2024. The decline is one of the steepest and most sustained drops in any US crime category, widely attributed to improved home security technology, demographic shifts, and changes in drug markets. A 25-year-old today faces a meaningfully lower per-year risk than their parents did at the same age.
The headline number is a population average that masks large variation. The NCVS consistently shows that urban renters face roughly two to three times the burglary rate of suburban homeowners, and lower-income households are disproportionately affected. Geography compounds everything: county-level rates span more than an order of magnitude. The “1 in 2.5 lifetime” figure is the right answer to “what does the national average look like?” and a poor answer to “how worried should I be?” for any particular household that knows its own neighborhood, income bracket, and security setup.
Related tidbits
Identity theft affects millions annually and is rising. Home burglary rates have dropped 60%+ since the 1990s. People install deadbolts and alarm systems for the declining threat while reusing passwords for the growing one.
Claim ledger
Every number below is what each source reported, with the verbatim quote we relied on and how we arrived at our figure. Click any link to verify directly.
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[1] US Bureau of Justice Statistics — Criminal Victimization, 2023
Criminal Victimization, 2023See all 2 Likelier entries citing this source →
- Statistic
Property victimization rate of 102.2 per 1,000 households in 2023; burglary/trespassing component approximately 10.1 per 1,000 households- Excerpt
“"In 2023, the rate of property victimization was 102.2 per 1,000 households, which was not significantly different from 2022. Property victimization includes burglary or trespassing, motor vehicle theft, and other types of household theft." ”
- Source data from
- 2024-09-12
- Accessed
- 2026-04-11 · archived copy
- Calculation
- BJS NCVS Criminal Victimization 2023 reports total property victimization at 102.2 per 1,000 households. The burglary/trespassing subcategory accounts for approximately 10.1 per 1,000 (~1.01% of households per year), based on the NCVS detailed data tables. Over 59 adult years at ~0.85% per year (averaging 2022-2023): 1 − (1 − 0.0085)^59 ≈ 0.39. The NCVS captures both reported and unreported victimizations via household interviews, making it the most complete US household burglary measure.
- Independence
- BJS NCVS is a household survey conducted independently of the FBI UCR/NIBRS law-enforcement reporting system. The two count burglaries through entirely different pipelines — victim recall vs police reports — and the NCVS typically yields higher counts because it captures unreported incidents.
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[2] SafeHome.org (citing FBI UCR/NIBRS) — The Latest Burglary Statistics: How Common is Burglary in the U.S.?
The Latest Burglary Statistics: How Common is Burglary in the U.S.?- Statistic
852,963 reported burglaries in 2023 at a rate of 253.3 per 100,000; national burglary rate dropped 69% between 2005 and 2024- Excerpt
“"This represents a 9.5% decrease in the burglary rate from 2023 (253.3 per 100,000). The national burglary rate dropped 69% between 2005 and 2024. The data shows that total burglaries dropped by 64 percent between 2005 and 2024, from over 2.1 million incidents to fewer than 780,000." ”
- Source data from
- 2025-10-01
- Accessed
- 2026-04-11 · archived copy
- Calculation
- FBI UCR/NIBRS reports 852,963 burglaries in 2023 at 253.3 per 100,000 population. This is lower than the NCVS figure because FBI data only counts incidents reported to police; BJS found that only 44.9% of household burglaries are reported to authorities (Pew Research, citing NCVS 2022). Using the FBI number and adjusting for underreporting yields a figure broadly consistent with the NCVS household survey rate.
- Independence
- FBI UCR/NIBRS collects incident data from law enforcement agencies, while BJS NCVS surveys households directly. The two systems are methodologically independent and undercount in opposite directions.
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[3] Gallup — Crime in U.S. Seen as Less Serious for Second Straight Year
Crime in U.S. Seen as Less Serious for Second Straight YearSee all 6 Likelier entries citing this source →
- Statistic
34% of US adults worry frequently or occasionally about having their home burglarized (October 2025)- Excerpt
“"Fewer Americans say they worry about crimes, such as having a car stolen (39%) or their home burglarized (34%), being a victim of a hate crime (30%), or getting mugged (29%), attacked while driving (27%), murdered (22%) or sexually assaulted (21%)." ”
- Source data from
- 2025-10-30
- Accessed
- 2026-04-11 · archived copy
- Calculation
- Used for the perceived-risk side only. The 34% figure is the fraction of respondents reporting frequent-or-occasional worry, not an elicited probability. It places home burglary in the middle tier of Gallup's crime-worry hierarchy.
- Independence
- Gallup telephone survey data, entirely separate from both BJS NCVS household victimization sampling and FBI UCR police-report aggregation. Measures public worry, not incidence — included only for the perceived-risk axis and not for any probability estimate.