{
  "slug": "street-robbery",
  "question": "What are the odds of being mugged or robbed on the street?",
  "category": "crime",
  "no_reliable_estimate": false,
  "perceived": {
    "description": "Gallup's 2025 crime-worry poll finds 29% of US adults worry frequently or occasionally about being mugged, placing it in the middle tier of crime fears — below identity theft (69%) and car theft (39%), but above being murdered (22%) or sexually assaulted (21%). The worry level has declined modestly over the past decade even as robbery rates have fallen more sharply than public perception suggests.\n",
    "rough_estimate": "~1 in 3 adults feel it could happen to them",
    "kind": "poll",
    "survey_source": {
      "title": "Crime in U.S. Seen as Less Serious for Second Straight Year",
      "publisher": "Gallup",
      "url": "https://news.gallup.com/poll/697124/crime-seen-less-serious-second-straight-year.aspx",
      "year": 2025
    }
  },
  "native": {
    "display": "~66.5 per 100,000 population per year (FBI, 2023)",
    "numerator": 665,
    "denominator": 1000000,
    "unit": "per year",
    "population": "US population (FBI UCR/NIBRS reported robberies, 2023)"
  },
  "normalized": {
    "lifetime_us_adult": 0.038,
    "display": "~1 in 26 lifetime",
    "log_value": -1.42,
    "assumptions": "The FBI reports a 2023 robbery rate of 66.5 per 100,000 population, which reflects incidents reported to law enforcement. This translates to roughly 223,000 reported robberies annually (66.5 × 3.35 million hundreds of population). However, the NCVS consistently shows that only about 42-64% of robberies are reported to police (42% in 2023, 64% in 2022). Using a conservative 50% reporting rate implies roughly 446,000 actual robbery victimizations per year, or about 133 per 100,000 (~0.00133 annual probability). But this includes all robbery types (commercial, home invasion, vehicle). Street/personal robbery accounts for roughly half of all robberies per NCVS location data. For total robbery exposure (including all types), compounding over 59 years: 1 − (1 − 0.000665)^59 ≈ 0.038 using the FBI reported rate. The NCVS-adjusted figure would be higher (~0.076), but we use the more conservative FBI-reported figure as the headline because it is more precisely measured. The uncertainty range captures the reporting-adjustment gap.\n",
    "uncertainty": {
      "low": 0.025,
      "high": 0.09
    },
    "scope": "us_adult_lifetime"
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/fbi-releases-2023-crime-in-the-nation-statistics",
      "title": "FBI Releases 2023 Crime in the Nation Statistics",
      "publisher": "Federal Bureau of Investigation",
      "source_type": "govt_report",
      "statistic": "Robbery rate of 66.5 per 100,000 population in 2023; robberies decreased an estimated 0.3%",
      "excerpt": "\"The FBI released detailed data on over 14 million criminal offenses for 2023 reported to the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program by participating law enforcement agencies. More than 16,000 state, county, city, university and college, and tribal agencies, covering a combined population of 94.3% of inhabitants, submitted data through NIBRS and the Summary Reporting System.\"\n",
      "source_date": "2024-09-23",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-18",
      "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20260324222936/https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/fbi-releases-2023-crime-in-the-nation-statistics",
      "calculation_notes": "FBI UCR/NIBRS estimates a 2023 robbery rate of 66.5 per 100,000 population (Statista, citing FBI data). With a US population of ~335 million: 66.5 × 3,350 ≈ 222,775 reported robberies. Annual per-person probability: 0.000665. Lifetime over 59 years: 1 − (1 − 0.000665)^59 ≈ 0.038. This is the reported-crime figure only; NCVS data shows substantial underreporting.\n"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://bjs.ojp.gov/press-release/criminal-victimization-2023",
      "title": "Criminal Victimization, 2023",
      "publisher": "US Bureau of Justice Statistics",
      "source_type": "govt_report",
      "statistic": "42% of robbery victimizations in 2023 were reported to police, down from 64% in 2022; robbery increased 4% from 2022 to 2023",
      "excerpt": "\"A smaller percentage of robbery victimizations that occurred in 2023 (42%) than in 2022 (64%) were reported to police. Robberies increased by 4% from 2022 to 2023.\"\n",
      "source_date": "2024-09-12",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-18",
      "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20260504060832/https://bjs.ojp.gov/press-release/criminal-victimization-2023",
      "calculation_notes": "The NCVS captures both reported and unreported victimizations via household interviews. The 42% reporting rate for 2023 implies that for every robbery known to police, roughly 1.4 additional robberies go unreported. If ~223,000 reported robberies represent 42% of all robberies, total victimizations ≈ 530,000. At 530,000 / 335M population, annual probability ≈ 0.00158. Lifetime: 1 − (1 − 0.00158)^59 ≈ 0.089. This is the upper end of our uncertainty range. Black Americans experienced a 79% increase in robbery victimization from 2022 to 2023 per NCVS, and were more than twice as likely to be robbed as white Americans.\n",
      "independence_note": "BJS NCVS is a household survey conducted independently of the FBI UCR/NIBRS law-enforcement reporting system. The two count robberies through entirely different pipelines — victim recall vs police reports.\n"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://news.gallup.com/poll/697124/crime-seen-less-serious-second-straight-year.aspx",
      "title": "Crime in U.S. Seen as Less Serious for Second Straight Year",
      "publisher": "Gallup",
      "source_type": "reputable_reference",
      "statistic": "29% of US adults worry frequently or occasionally about being mugged (2025)",
      "excerpt": "\"Fewer Americans say they worry about crimes, such as having a car stolen (39%) or their home burglarized (34%), being a victim of a hate crime (30%), or getting mugged (29%), attacked while driving (27%), murdered (22%) or sexually assaulted (21%).\"\n",
      "source_date": "2025-10-30",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-18",
      "archive_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260421194340/https://news.gallup.com/poll/697124/crime-seen-less-serious-second-straight-year.aspx",
      "calculation_notes": "Used for perceived-risk axis only. The 29% figure is the share of respondents reporting frequent-or-occasional worry about being mugged. This is well above the 3.8% lifetime probability from reported robberies, suggesting substantial overestimation of personal risk — consistent with the availability heuristic driven by news coverage of muggings.\n",
      "independence_note": "Gallup telephone survey, independent of both BJS NCVS and FBI UCR. Measures worry, not incidence.\n"
    }
  ],
  "comparison_anchors": [
    {
      "label": "Home burglary (lifetime, US household)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.39
    },
    {
      "label": "Being murdered (lifetime, US adult)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.00348
    },
    {
      "label": "Death in a car crash (lifetime, US)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.0108
    }
  ],
  "regional_breakdown": [
    {
      "region": "High-crime urban metro (Detroit, Memphis, St. Louis)",
      "probability": 0.1,
      "notes": "Top-decile metro robbery rates are 3-4x the national average"
    },
    {
      "region": "Suburban / low-crime metro",
      "probability": 0.02,
      "notes": "Suburban robbery rates roughly half the national average per NCVS"
    },
    {
      "region": "Rural area",
      "probability": 0.01,
      "notes": "Rural robbery rates are substantially lower; NCVS urban rate is roughly 3x rural"
    }
  ],
  "personal_factor_multipliers": [
    {
      "factor": "Urban resident",
      "multiplier": 2.5,
      "notes": "NCVS 2023 urban violent victimization rate rose to 34.0 per 1,000, well above suburban and rural rates"
    },
    {
      "factor": "Male aged 18-24",
      "multiplier": 2,
      "notes": "Young men are disproportionately targeted for street robbery per NCVS data"
    },
    {
      "factor": "Black Americans",
      "multiplier": 2.5,
      "notes": "NCVS 2023 shows Black Americans more than twice as likely to be robbed as white Americans"
    },
    {
      "factor": "Rural resident",
      "multiplier": 0.3,
      "notes": "Rural robbery rates are a fraction of urban rates"
    }
  ],
  "short_label": "Street robbery / mugging",
  "myth_framing": "overrated",
  "outcome_severity": "moderate_harm",
  "exposure_pattern": "recurring",
  "outcome_type": "mental_trauma",
  "valence": "negative",
  "caveats": "The headline figure of ~1 in 26 uses the FBI-reported robbery rate, which captures only incidents reported to law enforcement. The NCVS, which includes unreported robberies, suggests the true rate is roughly double — implying a lifetime probability closer to 1 in 13. The wide uncertainty range (2.5% to 9%) reflects this measurement gap. \"Robbery\" in FBI/NCVS data includes all types — street mugging, commercial robbery, carjacking, and home-invasion robbery. Pure street robbery (the mental image most people have when asked about \"being mugged\") accounts for roughly half of all robberies, so the street-specific figure is lower. Geography is the dominant risk factor: county-level robbery rates span more than an order of magnitude, and urban residents face dramatically higher exposure. The long-term trend is strongly downward — FBI robbery rates have fallen roughly 60% since the early 1990s — but the 2022-2023 period saw a modest uptick per NCVS data. This entry is distinct from home burglary, which is a property crime without the face-to-face confrontation element.\n",
  "quality_score": {
    "d1": 5,
    "d2": 5,
    "d3": 5,
    "d4": 4,
    "d5": 5,
    "d6": 5,
    "d7": 5,
    "d8": 5,
    "avg": 4.875,
    "scored_by": "claude-code-8d",
    "scored_at": "2026-05-25",
    "methodology_version": "1.2"
  },
  "reviewer": "quality-review-agent",
  "last_reviewed": "2026-04-19",
  "reviewed": true,
  "generated_at": "2026-04-18",
  "image": {
    "alt": "An empty wallet lying open on a sidewalk, flat vector illustration in muted tones."
  },
  "attribution": "Likelier — https://likelier.app",
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/",
  "support": "https://buymeacoffee.com/kgluszczyk?via=likelier&utm_content=api-fear-single",
  "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/street-robbery"
}