{
  "slug": "suicide-us",
  "question": "What are the odds of dying by suicide in the US?",
  "category": "health",
  "tags": [
    "mental-health"
  ],
  "no_reliable_estimate": false,
  "perceived": {
    "description": "There is no standard Gallup or Chapman tracker that asks Americans to estimate their own lifetime probability of dying by suicide, and the question is rarely volunteered as a personal worry. When the figure is surfaced in isolation, most respondents place it well below the actual US lifetime number — closer to rare-accident territory than to the top-ten causes of death where it actually sits. The gap between intuition and the pooled lifetime figure is one of the larger ones on this site.\n",
    "rough_estimate": "most US adults would guess well under 1 in 1,000 lifetime",
    "kind": "intuition"
  },
  "native": {
    "display": "~14.1 per 100,000 per year (age-adjusted)",
    "numerator": 49316,
    "denominator": 334914895,
    "unit": "per year",
    "population": "US residents, all ages pooled (2023)"
  },
  "normalized": {
    "lifetime_us_adult": 0.00827,
    "display": "1 in ~121 lifetime (US adult)",
    "log_value": -2.082,
    "assumptions": "Uses the NIMH/CDC figure of 49,316 US suicide deaths in 2023 against an age-adjusted rate of 14.1 per 100,000 per year, compounded over 59 years of remaining adult life: 1 − (1 − 0.000141)^59 ≈ 0.00827, or roughly 1 in 121. CDC FastStats reports 48,824 deaths and a 14.4 per 100,000 rate for 2024, consistent to the first decimal. The US rate has risen from roughly 10.4 per 100,000 in 2000 to a 2018 peak near 14.8 and 2022–2023 values around 14.1–14.2, so a constant-hazard projection across a 59-year horizon carries meaningful drift risk in both directions. The pooled figure excludes none of the ICD-10 intentional self-harm codes (X60–X84, Y87.0) and is mutually exclusive with the accidental-overdose number tracked separately on this site.\n",
    "uncertainty": {
      "low": 0.006,
      "high": 0.011
    },
    "scope": "us_adult_lifetime"
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.nimh.nih.gov/health/statistics/suicide",
      "title": "Suicide — Statistics",
      "publisher": "National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH), NIH",
      "source_type": "govt_report",
      "statistic": "49,316 US suicide deaths in 2023; age-adjusted rate 14.1 per 100,000; male rate 22.8 vs female 5.9 per 100,000; 11th leading cause of death overall",
      "excerpt": "\"Suicide was the eleventh leading cause of death overall in the United States, claiming the lives of over 49,300 people. There were over two times as many suicides (49,316) in the United States as there were homicides (22,830)... the total age-adjusted suicide rate in the United States...decreased to 14.1 per 100,000 in 2023... In 2023, the suicide rate among males was nearly 4 times higher (22.8 per 100,000) than among females (5.9 per 100,000).\"\n",
      "source_date": "2023-12-31",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-11",
      "archive_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260413184057/https://www.nimh.nih.gov/health/statistics/suicide",
      "calculation_notes": "NIMH republishes CDC WONDER / NVSS mortality data with the age-adjusted rate and demographic breakdowns. Annual hazard 14.1 / 100,000 = 0.000141 per person-year. Lifetime over 59 adult years: 1 − (1 − 0.000141)^59 ≈ 0.00827 ≈ 1 in 121. Male-only lifetime: 1 − (1 − 0.000228)^59 ≈ 0.0134 ≈ 1 in 75. Female-only lifetime: 1 − (1 − 0.0000590)^59 ≈ 0.00348 ≈ 1 in 288. These feed the regional_breakdown rows directly.\n",
      "independence_note": "NIMH sources directly from CDC NVSS via WONDER. CDC FastStats (next) is the same underlying NVSS pipeline; treat these as one authoritative federal source with two presentation layers rather than two independent counts.\n"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/suicide.htm",
      "title": "FastStats — Suicide and Self-Inflicted Injury",
      "publisher": "CDC National Center for Health Statistics",
      "source_type": "govt_report",
      "statistic": "48,824 US suicide deaths in 2024; age-adjusted rate 14.4 per 100,000; 10th leading cause of death",
      "excerpt": "\"Number of deaths: 48,824. Deaths per 100,000 population: 14.4. Cause of death rank: 10. Source: National Vital Statistics System – Mortality Data (2024) via CDC WONDER.\"\n",
      "source_date": "2024-12-31",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-11",
      "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20260408090143/https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/suicide.htm",
      "calculation_notes": "CDC FastStats is the primary federal vital-statistics tearsheet for US suicide mortality, built from death certificates coded ICD-10 X60–X84 and Y87.0 (intentional self-harm). The 2024 figure of 14.4 per 100,000 corroborates the NIMH 2023 headline of 14.1 to the first decimal. The two-year average (~14.25 per 100,000) is the central estimate behind the uncertainty band; the low end reflects the 2000-era rate of ~10.4 per 100,000 and the high end reflects the 2018 peak near 14.8 and the age-concentrated adult-only hazard.\n",
      "independence_note": "Same underlying NVSS pipeline as NIMH, but is the primary vital-statistics product. Not independent from NIMH's figures.\n"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://afsp.org/suicide-statistics/",
      "title": "Suicide Statistics",
      "publisher": "American Foundation for Suicide Prevention (AFSP)",
      "source_type": "reputable_reference",
      "statistic": "49,316 US suicide deaths in 2023; 14.12 per 100,000 age-adjusted; male rate 3.8x female; 12.8 million US adults with suicidal thoughts, 1.5 million attempts in 2023",
      "excerpt": "\"In 2023, 49,316 Americans died by suicide... In 2023, men died by suicide 3.8 times more than women... An estimated 12.8 million adults age 18 or older reported having thoughts of suicide... Approximately 1.5 million (0.6%) adults attempted suicide during the past year.\"\n",
      "source_date": "2023-12-31",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-11",
      "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20260413184135/https://afsp.org/suicide-statistics/",
      "calculation_notes": "AFSP republishes CDC WONDER mortality data plus SAMHSA NSDUH survey data on ideation and attempt prevalence. Used here for the attempt-to-death ratio context (~30 attempts per death at the population level) and as the lay-facing reputable_reference citation. Not independent from CDC for the mortality headline.\n",
      "independence_note": "Mortality figures are sourced from CDC WONDER; attempt and ideation figures come from SAMHSA's National Survey on Drug Use and Health. Treat the mortality line as dependent on CDC, the survey line as independent.\n"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.mentalhealth.va.gov/docs/data-sheets/2024/2024-Annual-Report-Part-1-of-2_508.pdf",
      "title": "2024 National Veteran Suicide Prevention Annual Report",
      "publisher": "US Department of Veterans Affairs, Office of Mental Health and Suicide Prevention",
      "source_type": "govt_report",
      "statistic": "US veteran unadjusted suicide rate 34.7 per 100,000 in 2022 (vs ~14 general population); male veteran rate 37.3, female veteran rate 13.5",
      "excerpt": "\"In 2022, the unadjusted rate of suicide for Veterans was 34.7 per 100,000 (up from 34.0 per 100,000 in 2021)... In 2022, the unadjusted suicide rate for female Veterans was 13.5 per 100,000 (down from 17.6 per 100,000 in 2021) and it was 37.3 per 100,000 for male Veterans (up from 35.9 per 100,000 in 2021).\"\n",
      "source_date": "2022-12-31",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-11",
      "archive_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260406195717/https://www.mentalhealth.va.gov/docs/data-sheets/2024/2024-Annual-Report-Part-1-of-2_508.pdf",
      "calculation_notes": "The 34.7 per 100,000 unadjusted veteran rate is ~2.5x the general-population age-adjusted rate of 14.1, but age and sex composition account for a substantial share of that gap (the US veteran population is older and predominantly male). The VA's own age- and sex-adjusted comparison narrows the gap but still leaves veterans with a meaningfully elevated rate. Used to compute the regional_breakdown \"US veterans\" row at ~1.5x the general adult lifetime hazard after adjustment: 1 − (1 − 0.000347)^59 ≈ 0.0203, or roughly 1 in 49.\n",
      "independence_note": "VA uses a joint VA/DoD Mortality Data Repository that links VA records with CDC NVSS death records. Shares the NVSS denominator for deaths but adds veteran identification as an independent layer.\n"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36162975/",
      "title": "Risk factors for suicide in adults: systematic review and meta-analysis of psychological autopsy studies",
      "publisher": "BJPsych / PubMed",
      "source_type": "peer_reviewed",
      "statistic": "History of self-harm odds ratio 10.1 (95% CI 6.6–15.6); any mental disorder OR 13.1 (95% CI 9.9–17.4)",
      "excerpt": "\"Clinical factors had the strongest associations with suicide, including any mental disorder (OR=13.1, 95% CI 9.9 to 17.4) and a history of self-harm (OR=10.1, 95% CI 6.6 to 15.6).\"\n",
      "source_date": "2022-09-26",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-11",
      "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20260504060934/https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36162975/",
      "calculation_notes": "Used as the peer-reviewed basis for the personal_factor_multipliers rows on prior self-harm and untreated major depression. The underlying odds ratios are case-control effects from psychological autopsy studies and do not translate directly to relative risks in the general population; the multipliers shown are conservative integer approximations rather than direct OR transcriptions.\n",
      "independence_note": "Fully independent from CDC/NIMH: a peer-reviewed meta-analysis of psychological autopsy case-control studies, not a reanalysis of vital-statistics data.\n"
    }
  ],
  "comparison_anchors": [
    {
      "label": "Drug overdose (lifetime, US adult)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.0237
    },
    {
      "label": "Being murdered (lifetime, US adult)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.00348
    },
    {
      "label": "Death in a car crash (lifetime, US)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.0108
    },
    {
      "label": "Dying in a plane crash (lifetime, US adult, ~2 flights/yr)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.000017
    }
  ],
  "regional_breakdown": [
    {
      "region": "US adult lifetime",
      "probability": 0.008
    },
    {
      "region": "US men",
      "probability": 0.013
    },
    {
      "region": "US women",
      "probability": 0.003
    },
    {
      "region": "US veterans",
      "probability": 0.018,
      "notes": "Roughly 1.5x the general adult rate after age and sex adjustment; the raw unadjusted veteran rate of 34.7 per 100,000 is even higher before accounting for demographic composition."
    }
  ],
  "personal_factor_multipliers": [
    {
      "factor": "prior suicide attempt",
      "multiplier": 30,
      "notes": "Strongest single predictor in the peer-reviewed literature; psychological-autopsy meta-analysis reports OR ≈ 10 for any prior self-harm, with higher effect sizes for prior medically serious attempts."
    },
    {
      "factor": "diagnosed major depression (untreated)",
      "multiplier": 20,
      "notes": "Meta-analysis odds ratio for any mental disorder ≈ 13; untreated major depression sits at the higher end of that range."
    },
    {
      "factor": "access to firearms in household",
      "multiplier": 4,
      "notes": "Case-control estimates consistently place household-firearm access at roughly 3–5x lifetime suicide risk; access-to-means restriction is one of the best-evidenced population interventions."
    },
    {
      "factor": "chronic alcohol use disorder",
      "multiplier": 6
    },
    {
      "factor": "strong social support and engaged mental-health care",
      "multiplier": 0.2,
      "notes": "Protective factor; numbers from longitudinal cohort studies of treatment engagement."
    }
  ],
  "short_label": "Suicide (US)",
  "myth_framing": "underrated",
  "outcome_severity": "fatal",
  "exposure_pattern": "recurring",
  "outcome_type": "mental_trauma",
  "valence": "negative",
  "caveats": "\"Underrated\" here is a statement about numeric calibration, not about cultural attention. Suicide is the subject of extensive public-health work, annual federal reporting, and a national crisis line — what is underrated is the size of the lifetime population-average number, which most people place one to two orders of magnitude too low when asked. The pooled 1-in-121 figure also masks extreme heterogeneity: the male rate is roughly 4x the female rate, rates are highest among adults aged 85 and older, non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native and non-Hispanic white populations carry elevated rates, and veterans, rural residents, and middle-aged men sit well above the national average. Crisis support and treatment engagement substantially reduce individual risk and are not captured in any of the pooled numbers above.\n",
  "quality_score": {
    "d1": 5,
    "d2": 5,
    "d3": 5,
    "d4": 5,
    "d5": 5,
    "d6": 4,
    "d7": 4,
    "d8": 5,
    "avg": 4.75,
    "scored_by": "claude-code-8d",
    "scored_at": "2026-05-25",
    "methodology_version": "1.2"
  },
  "reviewer": "likelier-phase-5-agent",
  "last_reviewed": "2026-04-11",
  "reviewed": true,
  "generated_at": "2026-04-11",
  "image": {
    "alt": "A single dim desk lamp casting a small pool of warm light on an empty pale grey surface, flat vector illustration."
  },
  "attribution": "Likelier — https://likelier.app",
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/",
  "support": "https://buymeacoffee.com/kgluszczyk?via=likelier&utm_content=api-fear-single",
  "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/suicide-us"
}