{
  "slug": "landmine-uxo-injury",
  "question": "What are the odds of being killed or injured by a landmine or unexploded ordnance?",
  "category": "other",
  "no_reliable_estimate": false,
  "perceived": {
    "description": "Landmines and unexploded ordnance occupy a strange perceptual blind spot: widely understood as devastating when encountered, but filed as a problem of \"other places and other eras\" by most people outside affected regions. The Ottawa Treaty, signed in 1997, created the impression that the problem was being solved. It is not. Annual casualty counts have risen sharply since 2015, driven by new conflicts in Myanmar, Syria, Ukraine, and Yemen, and by the sheer persistence of ordnance laid decades ago in Cambodia, Laos, and Afghanistan.\n",
    "rough_estimate": "most people in unaffected countries would guess near zero; the problem is perceived as historical rather than ongoing",
    "kind": "intuition"
  },
  "native": {
    "display": "~5,757 casualties per year globally (2023, Landmine Monitor)",
    "numerator": 5757,
    "denominator": 5000000000,
    "unit": "per year",
    "population": "global adults"
  },
  "normalized": {
    "lifetime_us_adult": 0.0000679,
    "display": "1 in ~14,700 lifetime (global adult)",
    "log_value": -4.17,
    "assumptions": "The Landmine Monitor 2024 report documented 5,757 casualties (killed and injured) from mines and explosive remnants of war in 2023. The 2025 report recorded 6,279 casualties in 2024. Using the 2023 figure as central estimate: annual rate = 5,757 / 5,000,000,000 = 1.15 × 10⁻⁶. Compounded over 59 years: 1 − (1 − 1.15e-6)^59 ≈ 6.79 × 10⁻⁵, i.e. roughly 1 in 14,700. The uncertainty band uses a low of ~4,000 casualties/year (pre-2020 baseline, low: 4.72e-5) and a high of ~12,000/year reflecting severe escalation scenarios in Myanmar, Ukraine, and Sahel (high: 1.42e-4; ratio ~3x). Given the sharp upward trend since 2015 and continued new use by non-signatories, the upper tail represents a plausible escalation path.\n",
    "uncertainty": {
      "low": 0.0000472,
      "high": 0.000142
    },
    "scope": "global_adult_lifetime"
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "url": "https://reliefweb.int/report/world/landmine-monitor-2024-enarrude",
      "title": "Landmine Monitor 2024",
      "publisher": "International Campaign to Ban Landmines (ICBL)",
      "source_type": "reputable_reference",
      "statistic": "5,757 casualties from landmines and explosive remnants of war were recorded in 2023, with civilians accounting for 84% of casualties and children comprising one-third of victims",
      "excerpt": "\"In 2023, at least 5,757 casualties were recorded from mines and explosive remnants of war, with 84% being civilians. Children comprised one-third of all civilian casualties where the age was known.\"\n",
      "source_date": "2024-11-20",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-24",
      "archive_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260426202925/https://reliefweb.int/report/world/landmine-monitor-2024-enarrude",
      "calculation_notes": "The Landmine Monitor is the authoritative global tracker for mine/ERW casualties, published annually by the ICBL (1997 Nobel Peace Prize co-laureate). At 5,757 casualties/year over a global adult population of 5 billion, the annual rate is 1.15e-6; compounded over 59 years: ~6.79e-5.\n",
      "independence_note": "The ICBL Landmine Monitor is an independent civil-society monitoring initiative, methodologically separate from the UN casualty reporting below.\n"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.maginternational.org/whats-happening/2025-landmine-monitor-out-now/",
      "title": "2025 Landmine Monitor out now",
      "publisher": "MAG (Mines Advisory Group)",
      "source_type": "reputable_reference",
      "statistic": "In 2024, a total of 6,279 people were killed or injured by unexploded ordnance; Myanmar recorded 2,029 casualties, the highest in the world for a second consecutive year",
      "excerpt": "\"In 2024, a total of 6,279 people were killed or injured by unexploded ordnance... Myanmar once again suffered the highest number of casualties, with 2,029 people killed or injured in 2024.\"\n",
      "source_date": "2025-11-01",
      "source_accessed": "2026-05-03",
      "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20260525162002/https://www.maginternational.org/whats-happening/2025-landmine-monitor-out-now/",
      "calculation_notes": "MAG International (a leading humanitarian demining NGO) reports on the Landmine Monitor 2025 findings: 6,279 total casualties in 2024, with Myanmar alone recording 2,029. This corroborates the upward casualty trend and provides the 2024 figure, higher than the 2023 baseline used in our central estimate, supporting the upper range of the uncertainty band.\n",
      "independence_note": "MAG is an independent demining organization; its reporting on the Landmine Monitor 2025 is methodologically distinct from the ICBL/ReliefWeb source above (different publisher, independent commentary on the same report).\n"
    }
  ],
  "comparison_anchors": [
    {
      "label": "Death in a terrorist attack (lifetime, global adult)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.0000048
    },
    {
      "label": "Death by lightning strike (lifetime, US adult)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.0000065
    },
    {
      "label": "Death in a house fire (lifetime, US adult)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.00025
    }
  ],
  "regional_breakdown": [
    {
      "region": "Myanmar (active conflict zones)",
      "probability": 0.0019,
      "notes": "2,029 casualties in 2024 alone; highest per-capita mine casualty rate in the world. The civil war has massively expanded mine use since 2021."
    },
    {
      "region": "Post-conflict countries (Cambodia, Laos, Afghanistan)",
      "probability": 0.00015,
      "notes": "Legacy contamination from decades-old conflicts; casualties occur primarily among rural agricultural workers and children."
    },
    {
      "region": "Countries without mine contamination",
      "probability": 1e-9,
      "notes": "Effectively zero risk; sporadic incidents involve historical ordnance from World Wars discovered during construction."
    }
  ],
  "short_label": "Landmine or UXO injury",
  "myth_framing": "underrated",
  "outcome_severity": "serious_harm",
  "exposure_pattern": "acute",
  "outcome_type": "recoverable_injury",
  "valence": "negative",
  "caveats": "Risk is overwhelmingly concentrated in a small number of conflict-affected and post-conflict countries. Myanmar, Syria, Ukraine, Afghanistan, Cambodia, Laos, and Yemen account for the vast majority of global casualties. For residents of countries that have never experienced significant mine contamination, personal risk is effectively zero. The casualty figures include both deaths and injuries — approximately 40% of recorded casualties are fatal. The figures also likely undercount the true toll, as many incidents in active conflict zones go unreported. Children are disproportionately represented among casualties because they are less likely to recognize ordnance and more likely to pick up unfamiliar objects.\n",
  "quality_score": {
    "d1": 3,
    "d2": 4,
    "d3": 5,
    "d4": 3,
    "d5": 4,
    "d6": 4,
    "d7": 3,
    "d8": 4,
    "avg": 3.75,
    "scored_by": "extracted-from-transcript",
    "scored_at": "2026-05-03",
    "methodology_version": "1.0"
  },
  "reviewer": "8d-eval-2026-05-16",
  "last_reviewed": "2026-05-16",
  "reviewed": true,
  "generated_at": "2026-04-24",
  "image": {
    "alt": "A stylized warning sign silhouette against a barren landscape, flat vector illustration in muted warning tones."
  },
  "attribution": "Likelier — https://likelier.app",
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/",
  "support": "https://buymeacoffee.com/kgluszczyk?via=likelier&utm_content=api-fear-single",
  "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/landmine-uxo-injury"
}