Social Security Basic Facts — Disability Statistics
Cited in 2 Likelier entries (2 risks, 0 decisions).
Used in 2 entries
For each citing entry, the verbatim excerpt and Likelier's calculation notes (how the source's number was converted to the lifetime-probability framing) are shown below. Click through to read the full claim ledger.
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- Statistic
Just over 1 in 4 of today's 20-year-olds will become disabled before reaching normal retirement age (age 67)
“"Just over 1 in 4 of today's 20 year-olds can expect to be out of work for at least a year because of a disabling condition before they reach the normal retirement age."”
Calculation notes
SSA actuarial fact sheet provides the baseline 25% lifetime working disability probability used in Step 1. This figure covers all disabling conditions meeting SSA/SSDI criteria. Combined with the CDIA 9.1% mental health share: 0.25 × 0.091 ≈ 0.023, rounded down slightly to 0.022 as a conservative estimate given the undercount dynamics described above.
Independence note: SSA administrative data is independent of CDIA's insurer claims database. The two sources use different populations and eligibility definitions; both converge on the ~25% overall lifetime disability incidence from independent methodologies.
Source date: 2024-01-01 · Accessed: 2026-05-14
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- Statistic
Just over 1 in 4 of today's 20-year-olds will become disabled before reaching normal retirement age (age 67)
“"Just over 1 in 4 of today's 20 year-olds can expect to be out of work for at least a year because of a disabling condition before they reach the normal retirement age."”
Calculation notes
SSA fact sheet provides the ~25% lifetime working-age disability probability used in Step 1 of the chained calculation. This figure includes all disabling conditions meeting SSDI/SSI criteria. Applied to the musculoskeletal share (Step 2): 0.25 × 0.29 ≈ 0.073. The SSA figure is for workers entering the workforce today; historical cohort rates were lower. The 25% is widely cited as the standard lifetime working disability estimate.
Independence note: SSA administrative data is independent of CDIA's LTD insurer claims data. SSA measures approved SSDI/SSI disability claims while CDIA measures employer group LTD insurance claims. The two populations partially overlap but are distinct: not all SSDI recipients have employer LTD coverage, and many LTD claimants do not meet SSDI criteria.
Source date: 2024-01-01 · Accessed: 2026-05-14
Also cited in these entries
Mental health LTD claim
What are the odds of filing a long-term disability claim for a mental health condition?
Musculoskeletal LTD claim
What are the odds of filing a long-term disability claim for a musculoskeletal condition?