Government report US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)

Lyme Disease: Data and Statistics

Cited in 2 Likelier entries (2 risks, 0 decisions).

Used in 2 entries

For each citing entry, the verbatim excerpt and Likelier's calculation notes (how the source's number was converted to the lifetime-probability framing) are shown below. Click through to read the full claim ledger.

[1] Lyme disease Risk

Statistic

CDC estimates approximately 476,000 people are diagnosed and treated for Lyme disease each year in the United States.

“"CDC estimates that approximately 476,000 people may get Lyme disease each year in the United States. This estimate was derived using methods including insurance claims data, clinical laboratory data, and self-reported physician-diagnosed cases."”
Calculation notes
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The 476,000/year estimate is the population-level anchor. Divided across the endemic-region population of ~115 million (the 15 states that account for ~95% of confirmed cases), the annual per-capita hazard is ~3.93 × 10⁻³. Compounded over 59 adult years: 1 - (1 - 0.00393)^59 ≈ 0.207. With a modest upward adjustment for moderate outdoor activity, the central lifetime estimate is ~0.25.
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Source date: 2024-03-11 · Accessed: 2026-04-18

[2] Tick illness (forest) Risk

Statistic: CDC estimates approximately 476,000 people are diagnosed and treated for Lyme disease each year in the United States.

“"CDC estimates that approximately 476,000 people may get Lyme disease each year in the United States. This estimate was derived using methods including insurance claims data, clinical laboratory data, and self-reported physician-diagnosed cases."”

Calculation notes

CDC estimates ~476,000 Lyme cases/year (insurance claims + laboratory data), far above the ~30,000 confirmed via passive surveillance. Adding non-Lyme tick-borne illnesses (anaplasmosis, babesiosis, ehrlichiosis, RMSF, etc.) at roughly their reported proportions scaled by similar underreporting factors yields an estimated ~550,000 total tick-borne illness cases per year in the US. Annual population rate: 550,000 / 335,000,000 ≈ 0.00164. Lifetime (59 years): 1 - (1 - 0.00164)^59 ≈ 0.092 for the general population. Regular forest walkers face ~3-5× higher exposure, giving a lifetime estimate of ~0.28-0.46, bracketing the 0.35 central figure.

Source date: 2024-03-11 · Accessed: 2026-04-21

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