10 Things You Should Know About Bear Markets

Used in 2 entries

For each citing entry, the verbatim excerpt and Likelier's calculation notes (how the source's number was converted to the lifetime-probability framing) are shown below. Click through to read the full claim ledger.

1. [1] Economic recession Risk

   Statistic

   27 bear markets (>20% S&P 500 decline) since 1928; average duration 9.6 months; average decline ~35%; average recovery 2.5 years

   “"There have been 27 bear markets in the S&P 500 Index since 1928. However, there have also been 28 bull markets — and stocks have risen significantly over the long term. The average length of a bear market is 289 days, or about 9.6 months. Stocks lose 35% on average in a bear market."”

   Calculation notes

   27 bear markets in ~97 years gives roughly one every 3.6 years. Over a 40-year investing career, an investor can expect ~11 bear markets. The probability of experiencing at least one >20% decline in a 40-year career is effectively 1.0. Stocks have been in bull markets approximately 78% of the time. The average recovery to a prior peak is 2.5 years, meaning a patient investor who holds through a bear market has historically recovered losses within a few years.
   

   Independence note: Hartford Funds analysis uses S&P Dow Jones Indices data. The bear-market count and methodology are consistent with other financial data providers (Yardeni Research, Invesco, etc.).

   Source date: 2025-01-01 · Accessed: 2026-04-19

2. [2] Stock market crash Risk

   Statistic

   There have been 27 bear markets (>20% decline) in the S&P 500 since 1928; stocks lose 35% on average in a bear market; average recovery takes about 2.5 years

   “"There have been 27 bear markets in the S&P 500 Index since 1928. The average length of a bear market is 289 days, or about 9.6 months. Stocks lose 35% on average in a bear market. About 42% of the S&P 500 Index's strongest days in the last 20 years occurred during a bear market."”

   Calculation notes

   Hartford Funds compiles S&P 500 bear market data in partnership with Ned Davis Research. Their count of 27 bear markets since 1928 yields an average frequency of one every ~3.6 years for >20% declines. The average decline of 35% confirms that the typical bear market crosses the 30% threshold. From this dataset we identify approximately 8 distinct episodes exceeding 30%, giving a frequency of roughly once every 12 years. Lifetime probability = 1 - (1 - 1/12)^59 ≈ 0.993.
   

   Source date: 2025-06-01 · Accessed: 2026-04-19

Also cited in these entries

OtherDirect

Economic recession

What are the odds of living through a major economic recession?

1 in 1.0 lifetime(99%)

OtherDirect

Stock market crash

What are the odds of experiencing a major stock market crash (>30% decline) in your lifetime?

1 in 1.0 lifetime(99%)