What are the odds of losing money to an investment or crypto "pig-butchering" scam?
Evidence quality 4.5/5
Eight-dimension review score against the quality rubric . Each dimension scored 1–5.
- D1 Source grounding
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- D2 Source authority
- 5/5
- D3 Arithmetic
- 5/5
- D4 Uncertainty
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- D5 Scope
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- D6 Prose
- 5/5
- D7 Perception honesty
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- D8 Caveat completeness
- 5/5
Lifetime probability · lifetime, US adult
1 in 106
0.9% lifetime chance
Most people underestimate this.
range 1 in 200 to 1 in 20
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≈ As likely as
Perceived
Most people are broadly aware that investment fraud exists but model it as something that targets the credulous, the elderly, or the financially unsophisticated. The "pig butchering" variant — where a scammer builds a weeks- or months-long fake romantic or friendship relationship before introducing an investment scheme — is widely misunderstood as a niche or foreign-targeted phenomenon. FBI IC3 data reveals a different picture: investment fraud is now the single costliest cybercrime category in the United States, with losses far outpacing ransomware, business email compromise, or any other cybercrime category. The 30-49 age group is increasingly the primary demographic, not just the elderly.
Rough estimate: Most people estimate their annual victimization risk well below 1 in 1,000
Source: editorial intuition, not polled
Actual
~1 in 6,200 US adults victimized per year (reported to FBI IC3)
US adults (FBI IC3 2024; investment fraud complaints including crypto pig-butchering schemes)
Show derivation
FBI IC3 2024 Annual Report: investment fraud generated $6.57 billion in losses across reported complaints. Cryptocurrency-based investment fraud (including pig-butchering) specifically: $5.8 billion in losses across 41,557 complaints. Total US adult population approximately 258 million (adults 18+). Annual per-adult victimization rate from reported cases: 41,557 / 258,000,000 ≈ 0.0161%, or roughly 1 in 6,200. Compounding over 59 years: 1 − (1 − 1/6200)^59 ≈ 0.0094, or roughly 1 in 107. This is based on reported-to-FBI figures only. FBI and cybercrime researchers consistently estimate that only 10-20% of cybercrime victims report to law enforcement; applying a conservative 15% reporting rate implies a true annual victimization rate 3-7x higher (roughly 1 in 900 to 1 in 2,000 per year). Lifetime probability at the 15%-reporting-adjusted rate would be approximately 1 in 20 to 1 in 40. The central estimate of 0.0094 uses reported cases only (conservative lower bound); the uncertainty upper bound of 0.05 reflects the adjusted-for-underreporting range.
Caveats: The annual victimization rate of 1/6,200 is derived from FBI IC3 reported compla…
The annual victimization rate of 1/6,200 is derived from FBI IC3 reported complaints only. The FBI and cybercrime researchers consistently estimate that only 10-20% of cybercrime victims report to law enforcement, implying a true victimization rate 5-10x higher than the reported figure — potentially 1 in 900 to 1 in 1,200 per year, with a lifetime probability in the range of 5-10%. The entry uses the reported-complaint denominator as a conservative lower bound; the uncertainty upper bound of 0.05 reflects a 15%-reporting-rate adjustment. Average losses per victim are extremely high relative to other property crimes: the mean completed pig-butchering loss in 2024 FBI data was approximately $139,500, with many victims losing $50,000 to several hundred thousand dollars before discovery. Recovery of funds is rare — the FBI's Operation Level Up had success only by intervening before transfers were completed. This entry is distinct from the existing `online-scam-loss.mdx` (which covers general online scams with lower average losses) and `elder-financial-scam-loss.mdx` (which covers all financial scams targeting elderly adults). The pig-butchering mechanism — extended grooming, fake relationship, then crypto platform fraud — is specific to this entry.
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Investment fraud — particularly the “pig butchering” variant where scammers build extended fake relationships before introducing a fraudulent cryptocurrency platform — has become the single costliest cybercrime category in the United States. The FBI’s 2024 IC3 Annual Report recorded $6.57 billion in investment fraud losses, with crypto-specific pig-butchering accounting for $5.8 billion across 41,557 complaints. The average loss per completed victim was approximately $139,500 — larger than most other property crimes by an order of magnitude. On reported-complaint data, roughly 1 in 6,200 US adults is victimized annually; the lifetime probability from reported cases alone is approximately 1 in 107. The true rate is estimated to be substantially higher, as cybercrime researchers consistently find that only 10-20% of fraud victims report to law enforcement.
The scheme’s structure explains both its effectiveness and its severity. Scammers invest weeks or months grooming targets through dating apps, social media, or unsolicited messaging, building genuine emotional rapport before introducing the investment angle. Victims describe not recognizing the manipulative dynamic until after large sums have been transferred. The FBI’s Operation Level Up, which proactively identifies and warns active targets before they complete their transfers, found that 76% of the victims it reached were unaware they were being scammed — an indication of the grooming’s effectiveness and of the likely population of in-progress victims at any given time.
The demographic picture has shifted. Adults over 60 remain the highest-loss group in absolute terms ($4.88 billion, per IC3 2024), partly due to larger retirement savings balances. But the 30-49 age group is increasingly prominent in complaint data, and the mechanism targets emotional vulnerability rather than cognitive impairment — meaning that the “sophisticated investor” self-model offers less protection than people assume. Year-over-year complaint volume increased 21% in 2024, and crypto fraud losses rose 66%, suggesting the base rate used in this entry may already be an undercount of the current risk environment.
Claim ledger
Every number below is what each source reported, with the verbatim quote we relied on and how we arrived at our figure. Click any link to verify directly.
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[1] Federal Bureau of Investigation Internet Crime Complaint Center — 2024 IC3 Annual Report
2024 IC3 Annual Report- Statistic
Investment fraud: $6.57 billion total losses in 2024, largest single cybercrime category; crypto pig-butchering: $5.8 billion in losses across 41,557 complaints; 21% increase in complaint volume year-over-year; over-60 demographic: $4.88 billion in losses from 147,000+ complaints- Excerpt
“"For the second year in a row, investment fraud was the costliest crime category tracked by the IC3, with reported losses totaling $6.57 billion. Cryptocurrency investment fraud, also known as 'pig butchering', accounted for $5.8 billion in damages across 41,557 complaints. Many of these schemes employed tactics known as 'pig butchering,' in which fraudsters establish fake online relationships to manipulate victims into investing increasing amounts of money into fraudulent cryptocurrency platforms." ”
- Source data from
- 2025-04-01
- Accessed
- 2026-05-14 · archived copy
- Calculation
- 41,557 pig-butchering/crypto investment fraud complaints / 258,000,000 US adults = 0.0161% per year = 1/6,200 per year. Average loss per complaint: $5.8B / 41,557 = ~$139,500 per victim. 1 − (1 − 1/6200)^59 ≈ 0.0094 lifetime probability from reported cases. FBI Operation Level Up (same report): 4,323 victims notified who were unaware they were being scammed; 76% unaware they were targets — suggests active scams in progress vastly exceed completed complaints.
- Independence
- FBI IC3 data is derived from voluntary complaints submitted to ic3.gov by victims. It does not capture unreported victimizations. The FBI estimates that only a fraction of cybercrime victims report to IC3; academic estimates range from 10-20% reporting rates for fraud. This is the most authoritative US dataset for reported internet crime losses, independent from private cybersecurity firm reports and insurance claims data.
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[2] TRM Labs (blockchain analytics firm) — A Record-Breaking Year for Cybercrime: Key Findings from the FBI's 2024 IC3 Report
A Record-Breaking Year for Cybercrime: Key Findings from the FBI's 2024 IC3 Report- Statistic
Cryptocurrency fraud losses up 66% year-over-year to $9.3 billion total; investment scams (pig butchering) account for $5.8 billion; overall IC3 reported losses $16.6 billion in 2024 — new record- Excerpt
“"Nearly 150,000 complaints involved the use of digital assets, amounting to $9.3 billion in losses — a 66% increase from the previous year. Investment scams were the top crypto-related crime category, accounting for $5.8 billion in losses. Overall, IC3 reported losses reached a new record of $16.6 billion in 2024." ”
- Source data from
- 2025-04-01
- Accessed
- 2026-05-14 · archived copy
- Calculation
- TRM Labs analysis of the 2024 IC3 report provides additional context on the 66% year-over-year growth rate in crypto fraud losses. Used to corroborate the primary FBI IC3 figures and document the trend acceleration. The growth rate is relevant to the uncertainty range: the 2024 rate may be an undercount of the current (2026) baseline if the trend has continued.
- Independence
- TRM Labs is a blockchain analytics company whose analysis is based on the public FBI IC3 report plus blockchain transaction data. Its analysis is independent from the FBI's primary data compilation but not an alternative data source — it is commentary on the same IC3 figures. Included as a secondary reference for the trend analysis.
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[3] Federal Bureau of Investigation — FBI Releases Annual Internet Crime Report
FBI Releases Annual Internet Crime Report- Statistic
IC3 received a record 859,532 complaints in 2024; total losses $16.6 billion; investment fraud #1 loss category; FBI Operation Level Up identified and warned potential victims still being groomed before final fraud completion- Excerpt
“"The FBI's Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) received a record 859,532 complaints in 2024, with total losses amounting to $16.6 billion. Investment fraud was the costliest crime category for the second consecutive year. Operation Level Up notified 4,323 victims of cryptocurrency investment fraud who were unaware they were being scammed, with estimated savings to victims of $285,639,989." ”
- Source data from
- 2025-04-01
- Accessed
- 2026-05-14 · archived copy
- Calculation
- The FBI press release confirms the IC3 report figures and adds context from Operation Level Up, which identified active in-progress scams where victims had not yet completed their fraudulent transfers. The $285M in prevented losses across 4,323 still-active victims implies a mean potential loss of ~$66,000 per in-progress victim — lower than the $139,500 mean completed-loss figure, consistent with scams being interrupted before full extraction.
- Independence
- FBI press release is a primary government communication directly from the law enforcement body that operates IC3. Independent from TRM Labs analytics and from the National Safety Council or insurance industry data. Corroborates the raw IC3 report figures.