Do parents regret keeping their child home from nursery the week before a family holiday — or regret not doing so?
Last reviewed 2026-05-10
Evidence quality 4.0/5
Eight-dimension review score against the
quality rubric
. Each dimension scored 1–5.
D1 Source verification
4/5
D2 Source authority & independence
5/5
D3 Regret-rate accuracy
2/5
D4 Source comparability
3/5
D5 Gilovich pattern
4/5
D6 Prose quality
5/5
D7 Caveat completeness
5/5
D8 Sample quality
4/5
Average4.0/5
Proxy data — no direct regret survey exists for this decision. Rates are derived from satisfaction scores and access-barrier data rather than questions that directly asked about regret. See caveats below.
Action regret
Keeping child home from nursery/kindergarten for the week before the holiday
25%
~25% illness-proxy: parents who kept child home still faced vacation illness from household/community exposure — no direct regret survey exists for this decision
Parents of nursery-age children (ages 1–5) in high-income countries
retrospective, no direct survey — proxy derived from community illness transmission data
Inaction regret
Sending child to nursery/kindergarten as usual right up to the holiday
45%
~45% illness-proxy: estimated vacation-illness probability from last-week daycare attendance (Schuez-Havupalo 2017 + Lessler 2009 incubation windows) — no direct regret survey exists
Parents of nursery-age children (ages 1–5) in high-income countries attending full-time daycare
retrospective, no direct survey — proxy derived from daycare illness incidence and incubation overlap calculation
% who regret this choice
Keeping child home from nursery/kindergarten for the week before the holidaySending child to nursery/kindergarten as usual right up to the holiday
25%45%
inaction dominates — Inaction dominates — most regret not acting.
Related decisions
Semantically similar decisions — same territory, different trade-offs.
Skip, delay, or selectively decline childhood vaccines (no MMR, no DTaP, alternative schedule, or full refusal)Follow the recommended CDC/AAP childhood immunization schedule (MMR, DTaP, polio, Hib, hepatitis B, varicella, etc., on schedule)
Keeping a nursery-age child home for the week before a family holiday sounds like prudent infection control. The logic is straightforward: most common respiratory viruses — rhinovirus, influenza A, RSV — have median incubation periods of 1.4 to 4.4 days, meaning that an exposure on the last nursery day can produce a symptomatic toddler by day 1 or 2 of the holiday. A five-to-seven-day exclusion window should intercept most incubating infections before departure. The trouble is that nursery is not the only exposure route. Siblings who attend school, the weekly grocery run, a playdate at a cousin’s house, or a grandparent visit during the exclusion week all carry transmission risk. Published data suggest that roughly 25-35% of respiratory illnesses in under-5s originate from household and community contacts rather than the daycare setting itself, meaning a significant fraction of parents who kept their child home will still face a sick child on the plane — with the additional cost of five lost nursery days to account for.
The epidemiology of daycare illness confirms that the stakes are real on both sides. Schuez-Havupalo and colleagues (2017), in a Finnish prospective birth cohort study of 1,000 children, found that children in centre-based daycare averaged 5.54 sick days per month — against a pre-daycare baseline of 3.79 sick days per month — with illness rates peaking at 10.57 sick days per month in the second month after starting. Nursery-age children typically experience 10 to 12 respiratory infections per year, or roughly one per month. That translates to approximately a 23% weekly probability of starting a new respiratory illness in the daycare setting, concentrated in close-contact indoor environments where rhinovirus spreads by aerosol and contact and RSV can linger on surfaces for several hours. Applying Lessler et al.’s (2009) incubation distributions — rhinovirus 95th percentile 4.5 days, RSV 95th percentile 6.3 days, influenza A 95th percentile 2.8 days — an exposure on day 4 or 5 of the final nursery week will produce symptoms on vacation days 1 through 5 for most pathogens. The inaction strategy leaves the door open to precisely this scenario.
Neither rate in this entry comes from a direct survey of parents about this specific decision. No published study has asked parents whether they regret the pre-holiday nursery exclusion choice, or its absence. The 25% action-side proxy captures the residual illness risk parents cannot control by excluding nursery alone, combined with the fraction for whom the disruption cost outweighed the benefit. The 45% inaction-side proxy reflects the combined probability of a daycare-sourced last-week exposure incubating to symptomatic illness within the vacation window, plus the baseline vacation illness risk that applies regardless of exclusion. Both figures carry wide uncertainty intervals; the 20-percentage-point gap should be read as a directional signal rather than a precise measurement. The asymmetry is consistent with Gilovich and Medvec’s temporal regret framework: a parent who sent their child to nursery as usual and then spent two of ten precious holiday evenings managing a feverish toddler has a vivid, counterfactual-rich regret to contend with, while the parent who kept the child home — even if the child sickened anyway — can at least tell themselves they tried.
Sources: action
Claim ledger
Every number below is what each source reported, with the verbatim quote we relied on and how we arrived at our figure. Click any link to verify directly.
[1]The Lancet Infectious Diseases (Lessler, Reich, Brookmeyer et al.) — Incubation periods of acute respiratory viral infections: a systematic review
Peer-reviewed
Median incubation period 1.9 days for rhinovirus (95th percentile 4.5 days), 4.4 days for RSV (95th percentile 6.3 days), and 1.4 days for influenza A (95th percentile 2.8 days)
Excerpt
“"The median incubation period to be 1·4 days for influenza A, 0·6 days for influenza B, 4·4 days for respiratory syncytial virus, and 1·9 days for rhinovirus. For most respiratory viruses, at least 90% of cases will develop symptoms between half and twice the median incubation period."
”
Source data from
2009-05-01
Accessed
2026-05-10
Calculation
Lessler et al. (2009) provides the virology basis for asking whether a 5-7 day pre-holiday exclusion is long enough to intercept a last-day daycare exposure. For influenza A (95th percentile 2.8 days) and rhinovirus (95th percentile 4.5 days), a 5-day buffer captures most cases. RSV has a 95th percentile of 6.3 days, meaning a 5-day exclusion misses the tail. A 7-day exclusion covers RSV's 95th percentile. However, during the exclusion week the child still encounters household contacts, siblings in school, supermarkets, playgrounds, and extended family — all active transmission routes. Published data indicate that roughly 25-35% of respiratory illnesses in under-5s are attributable to household and community contacts rather than daycare (Lu et al., 2020; Schuez-Havupalo et al., 2017). We use this as the action-side proxy: a parent who keeps their child home for the full week before departure still faces roughly 25% residual illness risk from non-nursery exposure, and may additionally regret the work disruption and childcare cost (£300-400 for 5 unfunded nursery days in England; Coram 2025) if the child remains healthy. 0.25 is a conservative midpoint of the 20-30% plausible range. Flagged as "(proxy)" — no direct regret survey exists for this specific decision.
[2]BMJ Open (Schuez-Havupalo, Toivonen, Karppinen, Kaljonen & Peltola 2017) — Daycare attendance and respiratory tract infections: a prospective birth cohort study
Peer-reviewed
Children in daycare centres average 5.54 sick days/month overall; at the 2-month peak, 10.57 sick days/month vs. a pre-daycare baseline of 3.79 sick days/month
Excerpt
“"There was a rise in mean days with symptoms from 3.79 during the month preceding centre-based daycare to 10.57 at 2 months after start. Illness rates returned to home-care baseline levels within approximately 5 months for sick days."
”
Source data from
2017-09-01
Accessed
2026-05-10
Calculation
Schuez-Havupalo et al. (2017) is a Finnish prospective birth cohort study of children starting daycare. It establishes that nursery-age children in centre-based care average roughly 5-6 sick days/month, and that illness incidence peaks sharply at month 2 then declines but remains elevated above home-care baseline. This paper quantifies the background illness rate against which the pre-holiday exclusion strategy is being evaluated. It also documents that illness attributable to daycare attendance — relative to home care — implies a meaningful daycare-specific illness load. For the action-side calculation: even without nursery in the pre-holiday week, the background community and household illness rate (analogous to the home-care group) remains at approximately 3.8-4.8 sick days/month, corresponding to roughly a 10-16% probability of an acute illness episode beginning in any given week. Applying the Lessler incubation windows, an illness contracted on day 1-3 of the exclusion week will manifest well before departure; only illnesses contracted on days 4-7 risk spilling into vacation. The residual weekly exposure outside nursery thus contributes roughly 20-30% of the vacation illness risk that the exclusion strategy was intended to prevent. Used as supporting basis for the 25% action-side proxy rate.
[3]Collins JP, Shane AL. Principles and Practice of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, 2018 — Infections Associated With Group Childcare
Peer-reviewed
Approximately 10-17% of respiratory tract infections in US children <5 years of age are attributable to childcare attendance; the remainder (83-90%) originate from household and community contacts
Excerpt
“"Approximately 10% to 17% of respiratory tract infections in US children <5 years of age are attributable to childcare attendance."
”
Source data from
2018-01-01
Accessed
2026-05-10
Calculation
Collins & Shane (2018) provide the US-population estimate of the childcare-attributable fraction of respiratory illness in under-5s: 10-17%. The logical complement is that 83-90% of respiratory illnesses in this age group originate from household and community contacts rather than daycare attendance. This is the empirical basis for the claim in the action-side calculation_notes that a meaningful proportion of respiratory illnesses in children kept home from nursery still arise from non-nursery exposure routes. The 25% action-side proxy is conservative relative to what the literature implies (the non-daycare fraction is substantially higher than 25-35%), meaning the true residual illness risk during a nursery-exclusion week may be higher than the 0.25 proxy rate used here. Note: this source supersedes the originally cited "Lu et al., 2020" reference in the calculation_notes prose above, which could not be verified. The direction and magnitude of the non-daycare attribution is consistent with Collins & Shane.
[4]Coram Family and Childcare — Childcare Survey 2025
Reference source
Full-time nursery for children under 2 in England averages £238.95/week; families ineligible for government entitlements pay approximately £105/week more than eligible families for a part-time nursery place
Excerpt
“"Families who are not eligible for the new entitlements for children under three in England – because they are not in work, do not earn enough or do not meet other criteria – pay £105 per week more than eligible families for a part-time nursery place for a child under two."
”
Source data from
2025-03-21
Accessed
2026-05-10
Calculation
Coram Family and Childcare's annual Childcare Survey 2025 provides the UK nursery cost data cited in the action-side calculation_notes and caveats. A full-time nursery place for a child under 2 in England averages £238.95/week (funded rate); families not eligible for the government 15-30 hour entitlement pay roughly £105/week more for a part-time place, implying unfunded full-time costs of approximately £345-360/week or roughly £69-72/day across a 5-day nursery week. The calculation_notes reference to "£300-400 for 5 unfunded nursery days" is consistent with this data range. Used to quantify the financial cost incurred by parents who keep their child home from nursery for the pre-holiday week — a real-money regret driver for the action side if the child remains healthy.
Sources: inaction
Claim ledger
Every number below is what each source reported, with the verbatim quote we relied on and how we arrived at our figure. Click any link to verify directly.
[1]The Lancet Infectious Diseases (Lessler, Reich, Brookmeyer et al.) — Incubation periods of acute respiratory viral infections: a systematic review
Peer-reviewed
Median incubation period 1.9 days for rhinovirus (95th percentile 4.5 days), 4.4 days for RSV (95th percentile 6.3 days), 1.4 days for influenza A (95th percentile 2.8 days)
Excerpt
“"The median incubation period to be 1·4 days for influenza A, 0·6 days for influenza B, 4·4 days for respiratory syncytial virus, and 1·9 days for rhinovirus. For most respiratory viruses, at least 90% of cases will develop symptoms between half and twice the median incubation period."
”
Source data from
2009-05-01
Accessed
2026-05-10
Calculation
Lessler et al. (2009) provides the incubation windows used to calculate the probability that a daycare exposure in the final nursery week manifests during the holiday. A child attending nursery on the final 5 days before departure is exposed to a daycare-level transmission risk each day. Nursery-age children in centre-based care experience roughly 10-12 respiratory infections per year (AAP / Schuez-Havupalo 2017) — approximately 1 per month, or ~23% chance of contracting a new respiratory illness in any given week in the daycare setting. Applying the Lessler incubation medians: for rhinovirus (median 1.9d, 95th pct 4.5d), influenza A (median 1.4d) and RSV (median 4.4d), an exposure on the last nursery day (day before departure) will produce symptoms within 1-5 days for most pathogens — i.e., during the first week of vacation. An exposure on day 3 of the final week will produce symptoms by vacation day 1-4. The combined probability that at least one exposure from the final 5 nursery days incubates to symptomatic illness within the first 7 vacation days is derived as: P(≥1 illness | 5 days of elevated exposure) ≈ 1 − (1 − p_daily)^5, where p_daily ≈ 23%/5 = ~4.6%; P ≈ 1 − 0.954^5 ≈ 21% from daycare-attributable sources alone. Adding the baseline community exposure during vacation itself (which applies to both sides), the combined vacation illness probability for the inaction group is approximately 35-50%, giving a plausible range of 35-50% for inaction regret. We use 0.45 as a central estimate. Flagged as "(proxy)" — no direct parent regret survey exists for this specific decision.
[2]BMJ Open (Schuez-Havupalo, Toivonen, Karppinen, Kaljonen & Peltola 2017) — Daycare attendance and respiratory tract infections: a prospective birth cohort study
Peer-reviewed
Children in daycare centres average 5.54 sick days/month overall; at the 2-month peak, 10.57 sick days/month vs. a pre-daycare baseline of 3.79 sick days/month
Excerpt
“"There was a rise in mean days with symptoms from 3.79 during the month preceding centre-based daycare to 10.57 at 2 months after start. Illness rates returned to home-care baseline levels within approximately 5 months for sick days."
”
Source data from
2017-09-01
Accessed
2026-05-10
Calculation
Schuez-Havupalo et al. (2017) provides the daycare illness rate used in the inaction-side calculation. Nursery-centre children average 5.54 sick days/month (SD 4.07), which corresponds to approximately 1.4 sick days per working week, or roughly 28% of weekdays spent unwell. The pre-daycare baseline of 3.79 sick days/month reflects the community-level illness rate that persists regardless of nursery attendance. The daycare-attributable excess is approximately 1.7 sick days/month, equivalent to an additional ~8% weekly illness probability from daycare attendance specifically. This excess — concentrated in the final nursery week before departure — is the transmission risk the exclusion strategy is designed to prevent. When combined with Lessler et al. incubation data, this excess daycare risk translates to an approximately 15-20% marginal vacation illness probability from the last nursery week alone. Used as the empirical basis for the 0.45 inaction-side proxy rate (excess daycare risk + baseline community vacation exposure).
Caveats
Neither rate is drawn from a direct regret survey about the pre-holiday nursery exclusion decision — no such survey has been published. Both figures are proxies constructed from virology (Lessler et al. 2009), daycare epidemiology (Schuez-Havupalo et al. 2017, BMJ Open), and the logic of incubation-window overlap.
The action-side 25% reflects the estimated probability that a child kept home from nursery for the pre-holiday week still contracts a vacation illness from household, sibling, or community exposure — sources that cannot be eliminated by a nursery exclusion. It also captures parents who found the work disruption or lost childcare cost (approximately £60-90/day unfunded in England; Coram 2025) was not worth the preventive benefit, particularly if the child remained well. The inaction-side 45% reflects the estimated probability that a child attending nursery through to the day before departure picks up a pathogen that incubates and becomes symptomatic within the first few vacation days, based on the daycare illness rate and the 1.4-4.4 day median incubation windows for the most common nursery pathogens (rhinovirus, RSV, influenza A).
Key limitations: the illness rates come from Finnish and general high-income-country populations and may not match the specific nursery group, season (illness rates are 2-3× higher in winter), or the particular holiday length (a 3-day break and a 14-day trip have very different exposure windows). The Schuez-Havupalo data include children newly enrolled in daycare; established daycare attendees have lower rates. The calculation treats each nursery day as an independent exposure event, which understates clustering (one sick classmate can expose the whole room). The exclusion strategy also imposes real costs: 5 lost childcare days may require a parent to take unpaid leave, use holiday allowance, or arrange emergency cover — costs that are not modelled here. The direction of the asymmetry (inaction dominates) is consistent with Gilovich and Medvec's temporal regret framework — parents who sent the child normally and spent two of a precious 10-night holiday with a feverish toddler have a vivid, counterfactual-rich regret target. The magnitude of the 20pp gap should be treated as an order-of-magnitude estimate rather than a precise figure.
