{ "attribution": "Likelier — https://likelier.app", "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/", "schema_version": 1, "generated_at": "2026-06-07T23:12:30.796Z", "count": 196, "decisions": [ { "slug": "abortion-vs-continue", "question": "Having an abortion vs continuing an unplanned pregnancy", "category": "health", "action_side": { "label": "Having an abortion", "regret_rate": 0.05, "regret_display": "~5% at five years post-procedure", "population": "US women who received a wanted abortion at or near gestational limits" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Continuing an unplanned pregnancy", "regret_rate": 0.04, "regret_display": "~4% at five years — expressed regret about continuing the pregnancy", "population": "US women denied abortion who carried to term (Turnaway Study)" }, "gilovich_pattern": "balanced", "regret_delta": 0.01, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/abortion-vs-continue" }, { "slug": "accept-kafala-contract-gulf-vs-stay", "question": "Accepting a domestic-worker contract in the Gulf under the kafala sponsorship system vs. staying home", "category": "career", "action_side": { "label": "Accepting the kafala contract and migrating to the Gulf", "regret_rate": 0.47, "regret_display": "~47% of kafala domestic workers report abuse, wage theft, or contract substitution", "population": "Migrant domestic workers under kafala system in Gulf states (Ethiopia, Kenya, Philippines, Indonesia, South Asia)" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Staying home and not taking the kafala contract", "regret_rate": 0.38, "regret_display": "~38% of potential migrants who stayed home regret the foregone income", "population": "Adults in high-kafala-sending communities (Ethiopia, Philippines, Indonesia, Nepal, Bangladesh) who did not take a Gulf contract" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.09, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/accept-kafala-contract-gulf-vs-stay" }, { "slug": "active-protest-vs-stay-silent", "question": "Actively participating in public protest vs staying silent during injustice", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Participating in public protest", "regret_rate": 0.12, "regret_display": "~12% of protest participants report regretting their participation (proxy; post-Euromaidan and moral courage literature)", "population": "Participants in major civic protests (Euromaidan 2014, moral courage studies)" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Staying silent during injustice", "regret_rate": 0.53, "regret_display": "53% of workers have regretted not speaking up when they had something to say (proxy from workplace voice literature — closest analog to civic silence)", "population": "Workers in US, UK, France, Germany — used as analog for civic silence" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.41, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/active-protest-vs-stay-silent" }, { "slug": "admit-serious-mistake-vs-cover-up", "question": "Admitting a serious mistake openly vs. concealing or deflecting it", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Admitting the serious mistake openly", "regret_rate": 0.14, "regret_display": "~14% of those who admitted a serious mistake faced significant career or relationship consequences", "population": "Professionals and adults who disclosed a significant error" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Concealing or deflecting the serious mistake", "regret_rate": 0.51, "regret_display": "~51% of those who concealed a serious mistake report ongoing guilt, anxiety, or escalating consequences", "population": "Adults who knowingly concealed a significant personal or professional error" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.37, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/admit-serious-mistake-vs-cover-up" }, { "slug": "advance-directive-now-vs-later", "question": "Complete an advance directive now vs. deferring until closer to death", "category": "health", "action_side": { "label": "Complete an advance directive now (in middle age)", "regret_rate": 0.03, "regret_display": "~3% of AD completers regret having one or feel it caused harm", "population": "US adults who completed an advance directive, various settings (Health Affairs, NEJM data)" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Defer advance directive completion", "regret_rate": 0.29, "regret_display": "~29% of families of patients without advance care planning show significant distress", "population": "Bereaved families of elderly hospital inpatients who died without advance care planning (Australia, comparable to US data)" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.26, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/advance-directive-now-vs-later" }, { "slug": "aggressive-cancer-treatment-vs-palliative", "question": "Pursue aggressive cancer treatment at end of stage vs. integrating palliative care early", "category": "health", "action_side": { "label": "Pursue aggressive cancer treatment (standard oncology, no early palliative integration)", "regret_rate": 0.35, "regret_display": "~35% of terminal cancer patients or their bereaved families report regret about aggressive end-of-life treatment", "population": "Advanced cancer patients and bereaved families of patients who received aggressive treatment in the last 3 months of life (Prigerson et al. 2009; Wright et al. 2014 Coping with Cancer)" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Integrate palliative care from diagnosis (alongside oncology)", "regret_rate": 0.1, "regret_display": "~10% of bereaved families of patients who received early palliative care express regret about the approach", "population": "Families of advanced cancer patients who received early palliative care alongside oncology (Temel 2010 cohort; ENABLE III; Zimmermann 2014)" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.25, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/aggressive-cancer-treatment-vs-palliative" }, { "slug": "alcohol-vs-abstain", "question": "Drinking alcohol regularly vs abstaining", "category": "health", "action_side": { "label": "Drinking alcohol", "regret_rate": 0.7, "regret_display": "70% of drinkers regretted getting drunk in the past year", "population": "Global, 31 countries, self-selected online panel" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Abstaining from alcohol", "regret_rate": 0.12, "regret_display": "~12% (social friction proxy, not direct abstinence regret)", "population": "Finnish adults aged 15–79, population-based" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.58, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/alcohol-vs-abstain" }, { "slug": "allotment-garden-vs-no-plot", "question": "Getting an allotment or community garden plot vs remaining without one", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Getting an allotment or community garden plot", "regret_rate": 0.08, "regret_display": "~8% of allotment holders report low satisfaction (implied from satisfaction surveys)", "population": "UK allotment plot holders" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Remaining without a garden or allotment plot", "regret_rate": 0.38, "regret_display": "~38% of non-gardeners cite lack of access as the reason they do not garden", "population": "UK adults who have not gardened in the past 12 months" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.3, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/allotment-garden-vs-no-plot" }, { "slug": "allow-child-on-social-media-vs-delay", "question": "Allowing your child to create social media accounts vs delaying or blocking access", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Giving child social media account access (Instagram, TikTok, Snapchat, etc.)", "regret_rate": 0.54, "regret_display": "54% of parents who allowed social media access wish they hadn't", "population": "US parents aged 18+ with at least one child under 18 who had already allowed social media access, nationally representative online panel" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Delaying or blocking social media account access", "regret_rate": 0.1, "regret_display": "~10% of parents who delayed social media access report significant social friction or self-doubt about the restriction (estimated proxy)", "population": "US parents who delayed or blocked child's social media account access; rate is a conservative proxy estimate — no direct retrospective regret survey of this group exists for social-media-specific access" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.44, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/allow-child-on-social-media-vs-delay" }, { "slug": "apologize-vs-hold-ground", "question": "Apologizing after a conflict vs standing your ground", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Apologizing", "regret_rate": 0.22, "regret_display": "~22% of apologizers reported residual regret (estimated from qualitative coding — not a survey percentage)", "population": "US adults, undergraduate and community samples" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Standing your ground", "regret_rate": 0.43, "regret_display": "~43% of non-apologizers reported lingering regret (estimated from qualitative coding — not a survey percentage)", "population": "US adults, undergraduate and community samples" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.21, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/apologize-vs-hold-ground" }, { "slug": "appeal-court-ruling-vs-accept", "question": "Appealing a court judgment vs accepting the original ruling", "category": "financial", "action_side": { "label": "Appealing the court ruling", "regret_rate": 0.86, "regret_display": "~86% of civil appeals in federal court do not result in reversal of the lower court's judgment", "population": "Private civil litigants in US federal courts of appeals" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Accepting the original ruling without appeal", "regret_rate": 0.3, "regret_display": "~30% proxy: share of trial-level losers who do not appeal despite potentially meritorious grounds (access-to-justice estimate)", "population": "Civil litigants who received adverse judgments at trial in US courts" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.56, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/appeal-court-ruling-vs-accept" }, { "slug": "appeal-health-insurance-denial-vs-accept", "question": "Appealing a health insurance claim denial vs accepting it", "category": "financial", "action_side": { "label": "Appealing the denial", "regret_rate": 0.14, "regret_display": "~14% of those who appeal a health insurance denial regret doing so (proxy; majority succeed, cost is time only)", "population": "US adults who filed internal or external appeals against ACA Marketplace or Medicare Advantage claim denials" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Accepting the denial", "regret_rate": 0.44, "regret_display": "~44% of those who accept a health insurance denial likely forfeit coverage they were entitled to (proxy; 34–75% of appealed denials are reversed, yet <1% of denied claims are appealed)", "population": "US adults who received a health insurance claim denial and did not appeal" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.3, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/appeal-health-insurance-denial-vs-accept" }, { "slug": "ask-for-raise-vs-wait", "question": "Asking for a raise vs waiting to be recognized", "category": "career", "action_side": { "label": "Asking for a raise", "regret_rate": 0.2, "regret_display": "~20% of people who asked for a raise regret the ask", "population": "US workers who initiated salary negotiations, online panel" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Waiting to be recognized", "regret_rate": 0.6, "regret_display": "60% of workers regret not asking for a raise", "population": "US, UK, French, and German workers, online panel" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.4, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/ask-for-raise-vs-wait" }, { "slug": "authorize-organ-donation-family-vs-refuse", "question": "Authorizing organ donation for a deceased family member vs. refusing", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Authorizing organ donation", "regret_rate": 0.1, "regret_display": "10% of consenting family members later report moderate-to-high regret", "population": "Next-of-kin who consented to organ donation, Netherlands" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Refusing to authorize organ donation", "regret_rate": 0.28, "regret_display": "28% of families who refused donation later expressed doubt or regret", "population": "Next-of-kin who refused organ donation consent, Netherlands" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.18, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/authorize-organ-donation-family-vs-refuse" }, { "slug": "breastfeeding-vs-formula", "question": "Breastfeeding vs formula feeding your baby", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Breastfeeding", "regret_rate": 0.15, "regret_display": "15% of breastfeeding mothers report guilt about their feeding method (guilt proxy)", "population": "Mothers with infants ≤26 weeks who had initiated breastfeeding, recruited via social media (international, majority UK)" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Formula feeding", "regret_rate": 0.67, "regret_display": "67% of formula-feeding mothers report guilt about their feeding method (guilt proxy)", "population": "Mothers with infants ≤26 weeks currently formula feeding in any quantity, recruited via social media (international, majority UK)" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.52, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/breastfeeding-vs-formula" }, { "slug": "buy-house-vs-rent", "question": "Buying a house vs renting long-term", "category": "financial", "action_side": { "label": "Buying a house", "regret_rate": 0.08, "regret_display": "8% of homeowners wish they'd rented", "population": "US homeowners, nationally representative online survey" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Renting long-term", "regret_rate": 0.45, "regret_display": "45% of renters wish they'd bought", "population": "US renters in 20 major metros" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.37, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/buy-house-vs-rent" }, { "slug": "buying-grandchild-every-gift-vs-restraint", "question": "Buying your grandchild (or child) every toy and gift they ask for vs restraining gift-giving and saying no", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Indulgent gift-giving — rarely saying no", "regret_rate": 0.4, "regret_display": "40% of parents say grandparents are too soft or lenient (proxy)", "population": "US parents of children ages 0–18 who reported disagreements with a grandparent (subset of nationally representative n=2,016 sample)" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Restrained gift-giving — saying no, following parents' limits", "regret_rate": 0.14, "regret_display": "14% of parents say grandparents are too strict or tough (proxy)", "population": "US parents of children ages 0–18 who reported disagreements with a grandparent (subset of nationally representative n=2,016 sample)" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.26, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/buying-grandchild-every-gift-vs-restraint" }, { "slug": "buying-organic-vs-conventional", "question": "Buying organic produce vs sticking with conventional", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Buying organic — paying the premium", "regret_rate": 0.15, "regret_display": "15% of US adults actively avoid organic foods (avoidance proxy — stance, not retrospective regret)", "population": "US adults, nationally representative" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Sticking with conventional produce", "regret_rate": 0.46, "regret_display": "46% of US adults rank pesticide residues among their top-3 food safety concerns (concern proxy — not direct regret)", "population": "US adults aged 18-80, nationally representative" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.31, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/buying-organic-vs-conventional" }, { "slug": "career-pursuit-vs-work-life-balance", "question": "Aggressively pursuing career advancement vs prioritizing work-life balance", "category": "career", "action_side": { "label": "Pursuing career aggressively", "regret_rate": 0.59, "regret_display": "59% regret not prioritizing work-life balance", "population": "Workers in US, UK, France, Germany" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Prioritizing work-life balance", "regret_rate": 0.33, "regret_display": "~33% regret not taking more career risks (proxy)", "population": "Workers in US, UK, France, Germany" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.26, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/career-pursuit-vs-work-life-balance" }, { "slug": "change-career-vs-stay", "question": "Changing careers vs staying in your current field", "category": "career", "action_side": { "label": "Changing careers", "regret_rate": 0.3, "regret_display": "~30% regret changing careers", "population": "US, UK, French, and German workers who changed careers" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Staying in your current field", "regret_rate": 0.58, "regret_display": "58% regret staying too long", "population": "US, UK, French, and German workers" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.28, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/change-career-vs-stay" }, { "slug": "cheat-in-relationship-regret", "question": "Cheating on a committed partner vs staying faithful when tempted", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Having an affair", "regret_rate": 0.55, "regret_display": "~55% of US adults with a history of extramarital sex separate or divorce from that spouse (behavioral proxy; attitudinal regret in affair-seeker samples runs far lower)", "population": "US adults, nationally representative panel (General Social Survey)" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Resisting an affair / staying faithful", "regret_rate": 0.15, "regret_display": "~15% of spouses in fidelity-maintaining marriages show meaningful declines in marital satisfaction across 2–4 years (satisfaction-decline proxy; no survey directly measures regret-of-not-cheating)", "population": "Couples in longitudinal marital quality studies; non-infidelity couples in randomised therapy trials" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.4, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/cheat-in-relationship-regret" }, { "slug": "china-delay-marriage-vs-marry-on-schedule", "question": "Delaying or skipping marriage for career in China vs. marrying at the socially expected age", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Delaying or skipping marriage (the 'sheng nu' path)", "regret_rate": 0.28, "regret_display": "~28% of unmarried Chinese women over 27 report significant pressure-related distress", "population": "Unmarried urban Chinese women over age 27" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Marrying at the socially expected age (before 27)", "regret_rate": 0.38, "regret_display": "~38% of Chinese women who married young report significant dissatisfaction", "population": "Married Chinese women who married before age 27" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.1, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/china-delay-marriage-vs-marry-on-schedule" }, { "slug": "china-gaokao-major-regret", "question": "Accepting your gaokao result and university major vs. re-sitting the exam for a better outcome", "category": "career", "action_side": { "label": "Accepting the gaokao result and enrolling", "regret_rate": 0.66, "regret_display": "66% of gaokao takers would choose differently if they could re-sit", "population": "Chinese gaokao takers, Weibo survey respondents" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Re-sitting the gaokao as a fukaosheng", "regret_rate": 0.3, "regret_display": "~30% of re-sitters achieve no meaningful score improvement after a full year of preparation", "population": "Chinese gaokao re-sitters (fukaosheng)" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.36, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/china-gaokao-major-regret" }, { "slug": "circumcision", "question": "Circumcising a son vs not circumcising", "category": "health", "action_side": { "label": "Circumcising", "regret_rate": 0.21, "regret_display": "21% of parents — moderate to strong regret", "population": "US parents of circumcised boys presenting to pediatric urology clinic" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Not circumcising", "regret_rate": 0.21, "regret_display": "21% of parents — moderate to strong regret", "population": "US parents of uncircumcised boys presenting to pediatric urology clinic" }, "gilovich_pattern": "balanced", "regret_delta": 0, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/circumcision" }, { "slug": "coming-out-vs-staying-closeted", "question": "Coming out about your sexuality vs staying closeted", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Coming out", "regret_rate": 0.07, "regret_display": "7% of LGBT adults say their sexual orientation is mainly something negative in their life (proxy)", "population": "US self-identified LGBT adults (predominantly out)" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Staying closeted", "regret_rate": 0.16, "regret_display": "16% past-year suicide attempt rate among LGBTQ youth who delayed coming out 2+ years (proxy)", "population": "LGBTQ+ young people ages 13–24 in the US who delayed disclosure" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.09, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/coming-out-vs-staying-closeted" }, { "slug": "consult-ai-before-deciding-vs-skip", "question": "Consulting AI before a major personal decision vs deciding without it", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Consulting AI before deciding", "regret_rate": 0.22, "regret_display": "~22% of those who consulted AI for a significant decision report a harmful or problematic outcome (proxy; 11% received unsafe health recommendations; 21–49% of AI medical responses are rated problematic in controlled studies)", "population": "US adults who consulted AI chatbots for health, financial, or life decisions" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Deciding without AI input", "regret_rate": 0.28, "regret_display": "~28% of those who skipped AI consultation may have missed useful information that could have improved their decision (proxy; 46–59% of AI health users report concrete benefits; 66–90% of AI financial users found it worthwhile)", "population": "US adults who made significant decisions without consulting AI" }, "gilovich_pattern": "balanced", "regret_delta": -0.06, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/consult-ai-before-deciding-vs-skip" }, { "slug": "continue-gambling-vs-quit", "question": "Continuing to gamble vs quitting (among problem gamblers and at-risk gamblers)", "category": "financial", "action_side": { "label": "Continuing to gamble", "regret_rate": 0.85, "regret_display": "~85% of problem/at-risk gamblers report harm or distress from continuing (proxy for regret — no direct regret-framed survey)", "population": "At-risk and problem gamblers (PGSI 1+), drawn from national prevalence and treatment-seeking samples" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Quitting / sustained abstinence", "regret_rate": 0.08, "regret_display": "~8% (proxy — derived from treatment cohorts; no direct quit-regret survey exists)", "population": "Recovered problem gamblers — inpatient treatment cohort plus US natural-recovery cohort" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.77, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/continue-gambling-vs-quit" }, { "slug": "continuous-self-development-vs-coast", "question": "Committing to continuous personal development (courses, books, skill-building) vs being content with current skills", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Continuous self-development (courses, certifications, deliberate learning)", "regret_rate": 0.2, "regret_display": "~20% inferred regret-equivalent rate (proxy: time/cost burden on lifelong learners — see caveats)", "population": "US adults who identify as lifelong learners (~74%); cross-survey inference" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Coasting on current skills, no active development", "regret_rate": 0.3, "regret_display": "Education ranks as the #1 most-regretted life domain in Roese & Summerville's meta-analysis of 11 ranking studies; ~33% of all lifetime regrets in Pink's World Regret Survey are boldness regrets (lost opportunities)", "population": "Adults; meta-analytic synthesis and open-ended regret survey" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.1, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/continuous-self-development-vs-coast" }, { "slug": "controlled-teen-alcohol-vs-prohibition", "question": "Giving a teenager supervised access to alcohol vs strict prohibition", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Supervised/managed alcohol access", "regret_rate": 0.36, "regret_display": "36% of teenagers given adult-supervised access to alcohol experienced harmful alcohol consequences by grade 9 (child-harm proxy for parental regret)", "population": "Secondary-school students in Victoria, Australia (permissive-norm context), followed from grade 7" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Strict prohibition (no parental alcohol supply)", "regret_rate": 0.21, "regret_display": "21% of teenagers in a strict-prohibition policy context (Washington State) experienced harmful alcohol consequences by grade 9 (harm-outcome proxy)", "population": "Secondary-school students in Washington State (prohibition-norm context), followed from grade 7" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.15, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/controlled-teen-alcohol-vs-prohibition" }, { "slug": "correcting-child-vs-letting-it-slide", "question": "Consistently correcting and disciplining your child vs being permissive and letting things slide", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Consistent discipline and limit-setting", "regret_rate": 0.11, "regret_display": "11% of adults raised in stricter households say it was a bad thing (proxy)", "population": "US adults whose parents were stricter than peers, n=1,000 US adult citizens, nationally representative online sample" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Permissive / low-correction parenting", "regret_rate": 0.26, "regret_display": "26% of adults raised in more lenient households say it was a bad thing (proxy)", "population": "US adults whose parents were more lenient than peers, n=1,000 US adult citizens, nationally representative online sample" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.15, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/correcting-child-vs-letting-it-slide" }, { "slug": "cosmetic-surgery", "question": "Having cosmetic surgery vs not having it", "category": "health", "action_side": { "label": "Having cosmetic surgery", "regret_rate": 0.1, "regret_display": "~10% regret the procedure (range 5–33% by type)", "population": "Cosmetic surgery patients, multi-study systematic review" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Not having cosmetic surgery", "regret_rate": 0.05, "regret_display": "~5% (placeholder proxy — no direct survey exists)", "population": "US adults, nationally representative" }, "gilovich_pattern": "balanced", "regret_delta": 0.05, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/cosmetic-surgery" }, { "slug": "couple-therapy-vs-no-couple-therapy", "question": "Starting couple/marital therapy vs not going to couple therapy", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Going to couple therapy", "regret_rate": 0.29, "regret_display": "~29% of couples attending therapy divorce or show clinically significant deterioration within 5 years (outcome-based proxy for regret)", "population": "Seriously distressed married couples enrolled in randomised controlled trials of couple therapy, US clinical samples" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Not seeking couple therapy", "regret_rate": 0.42, "regret_display": "~42% of couples who never attend couple therapy face divorce or unresolved relationship distress (proxy for inaction regret)", "population": "Distressed married couples who do not seek couple therapy, with outcome data drawn from no-treatment controls and US population divorce data" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.13, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/couple-therapy-vs-no-couple-therapy" }, { "slug": "csection-vs-vaginal-birth", "question": "Having a cesarean delivery vs vaginal delivery", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Cesarean delivery", "regret_rate": 0.19, "regret_display": "19% of cesarean-delivery women were dissatisfied with the birth experience (dissatisfaction proxy)", "population": "Women who delivered by cesarean section in Scotland, recruited via postal survey (mixed planned and unplanned)" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Vaginal delivery", "regret_rate": 0.07, "regret_display": "7% of women had a negative birth experience at 1 year postpartum (negative experience proxy)", "population": "Swedish women recruited at all antenatal clinics nationally, assessed 1 year after delivery (predominantly vaginal births given ~15% national C-section rate)" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.12, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/csection-vs-vaginal-birth" }, { "slug": "diagnose-vs-denial", "question": "Getting diagnosed and treated early vs denial and avoidance", "category": "health", "action_side": { "label": "Getting diagnosed early", "regret_rate": 0.2, "regret_display": "20% regret early treatment decisions", "population": "Localized prostate cancer patients, 14 studies" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Avoiding/denying health issues", "regret_rate": 0.252, "regret_display": "~25.2% regretted inactions specifically (delayed screening, not seeking info)", "population": "Young breast cancer survivors, US" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.052, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/diagnose-vs-denial" }, { "slug": "diagnosing-child-adhd-vs-waiting", "question": "Do parents regret pursuing an ADHD diagnosis for their child — or regret not doing so?", "category": "health", "action_side": { "label": "Pursuing formal ADHD diagnosis and treatment (medication + behavioral therapy)", "regret_rate": 0.3, "regret_display": "~30% of parents who initiate stimulant medication discontinue within 12 months (discontinuation-as-regret proxy)", "population": "Parents of children with ADHD who initiated medication, primarily US self-selected community samples" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Waiting, avoiding diagnosis, or managing without formal evaluation", "regret_rate": 0.4, "regret_display": "~40% of parents who delayed ADHD medication report regret about waiting (conservative estimate; 58% is the delay-prevalence ceiling, not the regret rate)", "population": "Caregivers of children with ADHD (ADDitude survey, N=11,013); adults with late ADHD diagnosis (longitudinal and qualitative studies)" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.1, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/diagnosing-child-adhd-vs-waiting" }, { "slug": "dialysis-vs-conservative-care", "question": "Start dialysis for kidney failure vs. choosing conservative (non-dialytic) management", "category": "health", "action_side": { "label": "Start dialysis", "regret_rate": 0.3, "regret_display": "~30% of elderly or frail patients on dialysis express significant regret about starting, particularly in the first 12 months", "population": "Adults ≥75 with end-stage renal disease who started dialysis, particularly those with high comorbidity burden (Davison 2010; Morton et al. 2012)" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Choose conservative (non-dialytic) management", "regret_rate": 0.1, "regret_display": "~10% of patients who chose conservative management expressed regret about not trying dialysis", "population": "Adults ≥75 with ESRD who chose conservative management with palliative support (Murtagh et al. 2011; Davison et al. qualitative studies)" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.2, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/dialysis-vs-conservative-care" }, { "slug": "diaspora-heritage-vs-assimilate", "question": "Asserting your heritage identity in a diaspora vs. assimilating into the host culture", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Asserting heritage identity, maintaining strong ethnic and cultural ties", "regret_rate": 0.21, "regret_display": "~21% of heritage-assertive diaspora members report significant social or economic costs attributable to visible cultural distinctiveness", "population": "First and second-generation immigrants who maintain strong heritage identity" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Assimilating strongly into the host culture, suppressing heritage identity", "regret_rate": 0.38, "regret_display": "~38% of first-generation immigrants who strongly assimilated report significant heritage-loss regret", "population": "First-generation immigrants who strongly assimilated to host culture" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.17, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/diaspora-heritage-vs-assimilate" }, { "slug": "disability-insurance-vs-skip", "question": "Buying disability income insurance vs. going without", "category": "financial", "action_side": { "label": "Buying disability income insurance", "regret_rate": 0.28, "regret_display": "~28% of insured adults report they would regret paying premiums if they never filed a claim", "population": "US adults with health or income-protection insurance, nationally representative survey" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Going without disability income insurance", "regret_rate": 0.8, "regret_display": "~80% of uninsured workers who experienced a disability leave report they have not fully recovered financially", "population": "US full-time workers who experienced a disability leave and had no disability insurance at the time" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.52, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/disability-insurance-vs-skip" }, { "slug": "disclose-addiction-to-family", "question": "Disclosing your addiction to close family vs keeping it hidden", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Disclosed addiction to close family", "regret_rate": 0.26, "regret_display": "26% of women (and 20% of men) with unmet SUD treatment need cited stigma — including not wanting others to know — as a barrier, suggesting a comparable proportion of disclosers may experience stigmatizing family reactions (stigma-exposure proxy)", "population": "US adults with unmet substance use disorder treatment need who cited stigma-related reasons" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Kept addiction hidden from family", "regret_rate": 0.46, "regret_display": "46% of people with substance use disorders reported worrying about what others would say if they sought treatment — a proxy for the concealment-driven isolation that drives inaction regret", "population": "Adults with past-year substance use disorder (N=84 with OUD drawn from N=1,033 Pennsylvania adults)" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.2, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/disclose-addiction-to-family" }, { "slug": "dispute-auto-insurance-claim-vs-accept", "question": "Disputing an auto insurance claim payout vs accepting the adjuster's first offer", "category": "financial", "action_side": { "label": "Disputing or hiring representation", "regret_rate": 0.26, "regret_display": "~26% of claimants who disputed or hired an attorney report dissatisfaction with the outcome (proxy from IRC satisfaction data; represented claimants less satisfied despite higher gross settlements)", "population": "US auto insurance bodily injury claimants who hired an attorney or disputed the initial offer" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Accepting the adjuster's first offer", "regret_rate": 0.38, "regret_display": "~38% of self-settling claimants likely undervalued their claim (proxy; 85% of total bodily injury dollars flowed to represented claimants who make up ~36% of claimants)", "population": "US auto insurance bodily injury claimants who self-settled without representation" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.12, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/dispute-auto-insurance-claim-vs-accept" }, { "slug": "divorce-vs-stay", "question": "Divorcing vs staying in an unhappy marriage", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Divorcing", "regret_rate": 0.3, "regret_display": "27-32% of divorcees regret divorcing", "population": "US adults who divorced, online panel" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Staying in an unhappy marriage", "regret_rate": 0.32, "regret_display": "32% still unhappy at 5 years", "population": "US adults in unhappy marriages, NSFH nationally representative panel" }, "gilovich_pattern": "balanced", "regret_delta": -0.02, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/divorce-vs-stay" }, { "slug": "downsize-home-in-retirement", "question": "Sell the family home and downsize when you retire vs. staying put", "category": "financial", "action_side": { "label": "Sell and downsize", "regret_rate": 0.22, "regret_display": "~22% of retirees who downsized wished they'd stayed or moved later", "population": "US and Australian retirees who moved to smaller housing after age 60 (Merrill Lynch/Age Wave 2015 + JCHS 2023)" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Stay in the family home", "regret_rate": 0.37, "regret_display": "~37% of retirees who stayed in large homes reported housing-related regret or financial strain in later years", "population": "US adults 65+ who remained in pre-retirement homes despite changed circumstances (AARP 2021 + HRS housing-transition data)" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.15, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/downsize-home-in-retirement" }, { "slug": "drive-after-drinks-vs-rideshare", "question": "Taking a rideshare or cab home after drinking vs driving yourself", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Take a rideshare, cab, or sober ride", "regret_rate": 0.18, "regret_display": "~18% of riders report regret over cost, lost car at venue, or next-morning logistics (proxy; rideshare adoption surveys)", "population": "US adults who took alternate transportation home after drinking" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Drive yourself after drinking", "regret_rate": 0.4, "regret_display": "~40% of drivers who drove after drinking report a negative downstream event — argument, near-miss, scare, ticket, or DUI (proxy; AAA TSCI + NHTSA self-report)", "population": "US drivers who admit driving after drinking in past 30 days" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.22, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/drive-after-drinks-vs-rideshare" }, { "slug": "drop-out-vs-finish-degree", "question": "Dropping out of university before completing a degree vs. finishing", "category": "career", "action_side": { "label": "Dropping out before completing", "regret_rate": 0.51, "regret_display": "51% of college dropouts wish they had completed their degree", "population": "US adults who attended but did not complete college" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Finishing the degree", "regret_rate": 0.33, "regret_display": "33% of degree completers regret aspects of their higher education", "population": "US adults who completed a 4-year college degree" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.18, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/drop-out-vs-finish-degree" }, { "slug": "early-sex-education-vs-delayed", "question": "Introducing age-appropriate sexual topics to children before age 8-10 vs. waiting until adolescence", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Early age-appropriate introduction (body parts, reproduction, consent — before age 8-10)", "regret_rate": 0.1, "regret_display": "~10% estimated parental regret (proxy ceiling — no direct survey exists; AAP-endorsed practice with no documented harm across 30 years of outcomes research)", "population": "Parents who introduced age-appropriate sexual topics — anatomical names, reproduction basics, bodily autonomy, consent, puberty anticipation — in early childhood; rate is a conservative proxy ceiling, not a direct parental-regret survey figure" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Waiting until adolescence or avoiding sexual topics in early childhood", "regret_rate": 0.35, "regret_display": "~35% estimated parental regret (proxy — 70% of teens wished for more parental information; 40-50% of adolescents had sexual experiences before parents discussed key topics with them)", "population": "Parents of adolescents who had not discussed sexual topics before puberty onset; proxy rate derived from teen-reported information gaps and timing-failure data across two independent large samples — no direct parental-regret survey exists" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.25, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/early-sex-education-vs-delayed" }, { "slug": "economic-migration-vs-stay-in-poverty", "question": "Migrating internationally for economic opportunity vs. staying in a low-income country", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Migrating internationally for economic opportunity", "regret_rate": 0.35, "regret_display": "~35% of economic migrants report significant isolation, exploitation, or family-separation regret", "population": "International labour migrants from lower-income countries" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Staying in a low-income country despite opportunities to migrate", "regret_rate": 0.48, "regret_display": "~48% of eligible non-migrants in high-migration communities express regret about not migrating", "population": "Adults in high-migration-sending countries who did not migrate" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.13, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/economic-migration-vs-stay-in-poverty" }, { "slug": "electric-car-vs-gas", "question": "Switching to an electric vehicle vs keeping a gas car", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Switching to EV", "regret_rate": 0.46, "regret_display": "46% of US EV owners want to switch back (intent proxy)", "population": "US EV owners, online panel" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Keeping a gas car", "regret_rate": 0.16, "regret_display": "16% of US adults are likely to buy an EV next (intent proxy)", "population": "US adults, probability-based panel" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.3, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/electric-car-vs-gas" }, { "slug": "embrace-change-vs-resist", "question": "Embracing major life changes vs resisting and staying in your comfort zone", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Embracing change", "regret_rate": 0.1, "regret_display": "~10% of regrets in Pink's World Regret Survey were moral regrets (smallest category) (proxy -- see caveats)", "population": "Adults globally, open-ended survey" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Staying in comfort zone", "regret_rate": 0.33, "regret_display": "~33% of all regrets were boldness regrets (Pink's World Regret Survey) (proxy -- see caveats)", "population": "Adults globally, open-ended survey" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.23, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/embrace-change-vs-resist" }, { "slug": "end-friendship-over-values-vs-maintain", "question": "Ending a friendship over values differences vs maintaining it despite conflict", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Ending the friendship", "regret_rate": 0.3, "regret_display": "~30% of those who cut ties report moral or social regret about the decision", "population": "US adults who have ended a friendship over values or political differences" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Maintaining the friendship despite deep values conflict", "regret_rate": 0.42, "regret_display": "~42% of those who maintained a deeply conflicted friendship report ongoing distress or regret", "population": "US adults who maintained a friendship despite significant political or values differences" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.12, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/end-friendship-over-values-vs-maintain" }, { "slug": "engage-in-local-civic-government-vs-stay-out", "question": "Actively engaging in local civic government (school board, HOA, town council, neighborhood org) vs staying out of community governance", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Engaging in local civic government", "regret_rate": 0.16, "regret_display": "~16% of long-term civic participants report regret (proxy: Gilovich-Medvec action-regret base rate, applied to a self-selected high-commitment population)", "population": "US adults who attend local public meetings (~9% of adults); estimate applies the long-term action-regret base rate from Gilovich-Medvec to this self-selected subgroup" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Staying out of local governance", "regret_rate": 0.53, "regret_display": "53% of workers regret not speaking up in meetings (closest analog for civic silence; direct civic regret survey not identified)", "population": "Workers in US, UK, France, Germany — used as the closest available analog for not voicing opinions in a community/governance setting" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.37, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/engage-in-local-civic-government-vs-stay-out" }, { "slug": "estate-planning-early-vs-delay", "question": "Creating a will and estate plan while healthy vs. delaying until a crisis", "category": "financial", "action_side": { "label": "Creating a will and estate plan while healthy", "regret_rate": 0.06, "regret_display": "~6% of those with estate plans report conflict or stress from the planning process", "population": "US adults with wills or estate plans" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Delaying estate planning until a crisis", "regret_rate": 0.42, "regret_display": "42% of families without estate plans report significant difficulty after a death", "population": "US families who dealt with a death without an estate plan in place" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.36, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/estate-planning-early-vs-delay" }, { "slug": "family-estrangement", "question": "Cutting off contact with a toxic family member vs maintaining the relationship", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Cutting off contact", "regret_rate": 0.2, "regret_display": "~20% report no positive outcomes from estrangement (proxy)", "population": "Adults estranged from a family member, UK/US/Canada/Australia" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Maintaining the relationship", "regret_rate": 0.67, "regret_display": "~67% of estranged adults report they wished they had acted sooner (proxy)", "population": "US adults who reconciled after estrangement, qualitative interviews" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.47, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/family-estrangement" }, { "slug": "family-meals-vs-eating-rush", "question": "Eating together as a family vs eating in a rush separately", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Regular family meals", "regret_rate": 0.09, "regret_display": "9% of parents don't find family meals stress-reducing (proxy)", "population": "US adults, nationally representative" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Eating separately/in a rush", "regret_rate": 0.62, "regret_display": "62% of parents wish they had family dinners more often (aspiration-gap proxy)", "population": "US parents with children under 18" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.53, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/family-meals-vs-eating-rush" }, { "slug": "family-mediation-vs-litigation", "question": "Using mediation to resolve a family or divorce dispute vs going to court", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Choosing mediation", "regret_rate": 0.15, "regret_display": "~15% of family mediating parties report dissatisfaction with process or outcome (proxy for regret)", "population": "Divorcing or separating parents who used family or court-connected mediation, primarily US and Canadian samples" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Pursuing litigation in court", "regret_rate": 0.47, "regret_display": "~47% of family litigants dissatisfied with court outcomes (proxy for regret)", "population": "Parents and spouses who resolved family disputes through adversarial court proceedings, primarily US samples" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.32, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/family-mediation-vs-litigation" }, { "slug": "family-size", "question": "Wishing for fewer children vs wishing for more", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Having more children (wishing you had fewer)", "regret_rate": 0.14, "regret_display": "14% of parents wish they had fewer children", "population": "US adults with children, nationally representative" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Not having more children (wishing you had more)", "regret_rate": 0.33, "regret_display": "29-37% of US adults wish they had more children", "population": "US adults (parents and non-parents), nationally representative" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.19, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/family-size" }, { "slug": "fixed-vs-variable-mortgage-rate", "question": "Choosing a fixed-rate mortgage vs. an adjustable-rate mortgage", "category": "financial", "action_side": { "label": "Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)", "regret_rate": 0.43, "regret_display": "43% of ARM borrowers regret choosing an adjustable-rate mortgage", "population": "US homeowners with an adjustable-rate mortgage, online panel" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Fixed-rate mortgage", "regret_rate": 0.17, "regret_display": "~17% of fixed-rate mortgage holders regret mortgage-rate-related aspects of their home purchase", "population": "US homeowners, nationally representative online sample" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.26, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/fixed-vs-variable-mortgage-rate" }, { "slug": "flee-conflict-zone-vs-stay", "question": "Fleeing a conflict zone vs staying in your home country during armed conflict", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Fleeing the conflict zone", "regret_rate": 0.13, "regret_display": "~13% of conflict refugees report regretting their decision to flee (proxy; low-forcedness subgroup)", "population": "Arabic-speaking conflict refugees resettled in Germany" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Staying in the conflict zone", "regret_rate": 0.47, "regret_display": "~47% of civilians who experienced direct violence after staying in a conflict zone reported wishing they had left earlier (proxy from trauma and forced migration literature)", "population": "Conflict-affected civilians who stayed in zones of active armed conflict (multi-country estimates)" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.34, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/flee-conflict-zone-vs-stay" }, { "slug": "follow-parental-advice-vs-own-path", "question": "Deferring to family expectations on a major life decision vs. pursuing your own aspirations despite family pressure", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Pursuing your own aspirations despite family pressure", "regret_rate": 0.24, "regret_display": "~24% cite an obligation-related regret (ought-self) as their single biggest life regret — the minority pattern among people who prioritized their own aspirations over family expectations", "population": "US adults, six studies (hundreds of participants total)" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Deferring to family expectations", "regret_rate": 0.76, "regret_display": "76% cite not living up to their ideal self as their single biggest life regret — the dominant pattern among those who prioritized obligations over personal aspirations", "population": "US adults, six studies (hundreds of participants total)" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.52, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/follow-parental-advice-vs-own-path" }, { "slug": "forgiving-vs-holding-grudge", "question": "Forgiving someone who wronged you vs holding a grudge", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Forgiving", "regret_rate": 0.1, "regret_display": "~10% report negative outcomes after forgiving (inferred proxy — not a direct regret measure)", "population": "US adults, nationally representative" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Holding a grudge", "regret_rate": 0.33, "regret_display": "33% regret holding grudges", "population": "Adults globally, online panel (2,000 per country)" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.23, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/forgiving-vs-holding-grudge" }, { "slug": "free-range-vs-helicopter-parenting", "question": "Giving children significant independence to roam and explore vs closely supervising their activities and whereabouts", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Close supervision / helicopter parenting", "regret_rate": 0.45, "regret_display": "45% of US parents self-identify as tending to be overprotective (self-identification proxy)", "population": "US parents with children under 18, nationally representative" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Free-range / independent parenting", "regret_rate": 0.2, "regret_display": "20% of US parents say they tend to give their children too much freedom (self-identification proxy)", "population": "US parents with children under 18, nationally representative" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.25, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/free-range-vs-helicopter-parenting" }, { "slug": "freelance-b2b-vs-employment", "question": "Working as a freelancer or B2B contractor vs traditional employment", "category": "career", "action_side": { "label": "Freelancing/B2B contracting", "regret_rate": 0.37, "regret_display": "37% of freelancers would prefer traditional employment (proxy — satisfaction complement)", "population": "US and UK freelancers, online panel" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Traditional employment", "regret_rate": 0.39, "regret_display": "39% of employees report dissatisfaction with work conditions (proxy — satisfaction gap)", "population": "US working adults (non-freelancers), online panel" }, "gilovich_pattern": "balanced", "regret_delta": -0.02, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/freelance-b2b-vs-employment" }, { "slug": "frequent-snacking-vs-meals-only", "question": "Snacking between meals (modern grazing pattern) vs eating only at 2-3 defined meals with no snacks", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Snacking between meals", "regret_rate": 0.25, "regret_display": "25% of US adults set food/nutrition resolutions targeting snack reduction (resolution proxy — stated intent, not direct regret)", "population": "US adults, nationally representative" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Eating only at 2-3 defined meals (no snacks)", "regret_rate": 0.27, "regret_display": "27% of US adults actively working to lose weight (weight-management-intent proxy — not direct regret about meal-only pattern)", "population": "US adults, nationally representative" }, "gilovich_pattern": "balanced", "regret_delta": -0.02, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/frequent-snacking-vs-meals-only" }, { "slug": "gaming-as-hobby-vs-skip", "question": "Regular gaming as an adult hobby (~5+ hours/week) vs not playing video games", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Gaming as a regular adult hobby", "regret_rate": 0.1, "regret_display": "~10% of adult gamers (proxy: ICD-11/DSM-5 gaming-disorder prevalence + the small share whose self-reported life-satisfaction trajectory is harmed by play)", "population": "Adult gamers — proxy from N=38,935 industry-cooperation longitudinal sample and gaming-disorder prevalence meta-analyses" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Not playing video games", "regret_rate": 0.14, "regret_display": "~14% of non-gamers express interest in or aspiration toward gaming participation (proxy: gap between US gaming adoption (~65%) and the share of remaining non-gamers who report curiosity or social-inclusion motivation)", "population": "US non-gamers (~35% of US adults); proxy estimate from Pew + ESA adoption + reported barrier surveys" }, "gilovich_pattern": "balanced", "regret_delta": -0.04, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/gaming-as-hobby-vs-skip" }, { "slug": "gap-year-vs-go-straight-to-university", "question": "Taking a gap year before university vs. enrolling straight from secondary school", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Taking a gap year", "regret_rate": 0.1, "regret_display": "~10% of gap-year takers feel they lost momentum or fell behind peers", "population": "Gap year alumni in structured programmes, US/UK" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Going straight to university", "regret_rate": 0.38, "regret_display": "38% of graduates wish they had taken time to explore before enrolling", "population": "US and UK adults with higher education degrees" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.28, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/gap-year-vs-go-straight-to-university" }, { "slug": "gender-affirming-care", "question": "Pursue gender-affirming care vs. living without medical treatment", "category": "health", "action_side": { "label": "Pursue gender-affirming care (hormones and/or surgery)", "regret_rate": 0.03, "regret_display": "~2–4% of gender-affirming surgery recipients report regret; regret rates for hormones alone are lower", "population": "Transgender and non-binary adults who received gender-affirming medical care (Expósito-Campos 2021 systematic review; WPATH SOC v8 review of evidence)" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Live without gender-affirming medical treatment", "regret_rate": 0.4, "regret_display": "~40% of transgender adults who have not received gender-affirming care report significant distress or regret about lack of access to treatment", "population": "Transgender and gender diverse adults without access to or who delayed gender-affirming care (US Transgender Survey 2022; Turban et al. 2020)" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.37, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/gender-affirming-care" }, { "slug": "get-dna-health-ancestry-test-vs-opt-out", "question": "Taking a consumer DNA test (ancestry and health risks) vs. preserving genetic ignorance", "category": "health", "action_side": { "label": "Taking a consumer DNA test (23andMe, AncestryDNA, or similar)", "regret_rate": 0.22, "regret_display": "~22% of DNA test takers encounter unexpected or distressing results", "population": "Consumer DNA test takers (23andMe, AncestryDNA)" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Opting out of consumer DNA testing, preserving genetic ignorance", "regret_rate": 0.12, "regret_display": "~12% of adults who skipped DNA testing later wish they had taken a test", "population": "US adults who have not taken a consumer DNA test" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.1, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/get-dna-health-ancestry-test-vs-opt-out" }, { "slug": "getting-a-bbl", "question": "Getting a Brazilian Butt Lift (BBL) vs not getting one", "category": "health", "action_side": { "label": "Getting a BBL", "regret_rate": 0.14, "regret_display": "~14% (inverse satisfaction proxy -- no direct regret survey exists)", "population": "BBL patients, retrospective cohort; regret inferred from dissatisfaction" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Not getting a BBL", "regret_rate": 0.08, "regret_display": "~8% (proxy estimate -- no direct inaction-regret survey exists)", "population": "Adults considering but not pursuing gluteal augmentation; body dissatisfaction proxy" }, "gilovich_pattern": "balanced", "regret_delta": 0.06, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/getting-a-bbl" }, { "slug": "getting-a-hair-transplant", "question": "Getting a hair transplant vs living with hair loss", "category": "health", "action_side": { "label": "Getting a hair transplant", "regret_rate": 0.05, "regret_display": "~5% dissatisfied (range 2–15% by clinic quality)", "population": "Male androgenetic alopecia patients undergoing FUE transplantation, clinical studies" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Living with hair loss (no transplant)", "regret_rate": 0.25, "regret_display": "~25% (proxy: men with AGA experiencing moderate-to-severe psychological distress from untreated hair loss)", "population": "Men with androgenetic alopecia, multinational survey" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.2, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/getting-a-hair-transplant" }, { "slug": "getting-a-pet", "question": "Keeping a pet vs rehoming it", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Keeping the pet", "regret_rate": 0.15, "regret_display": "15% of UK pet owners have regretted owning a pet at some time (RSPCA 2024)", "population": "UK adults who own pets, nationally representative" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Rehoming the pet", "regret_rate": 0.86, "regret_display": "86% of people who surrendered a pet within the past 3 years wished they did not have to (HASS 2023/2024)", "population": "US adults who relinquished a pet within the past 3 years, community survey across 9 US communities" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.71, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/getting-a-pet" }, { "slug": "getting-a-piercing", "question": "Getting a body piercing vs not getting one", "category": "health", "action_side": { "label": "Getting a piercing", "regret_rate": 0.32, "regret_display": "32% of Americans with piercings report some regret", "population": "US adults with a body piercing, online survey" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Not getting a piercing", "regret_rate": 0.08, "regret_display": "~8% (constructed proxy -- no direct inaction-regret survey exists)", "population": "US adults without body piercings, estimated" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.24, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/getting-a-piercing" }, { "slug": "getting-a-tattoo", "question": "Getting a tattoo vs not getting one", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Getting a tattoo", "regret_rate": 0.24, "regret_display": "24% regret at least one tattoo", "population": "US adults with tattoos, nationally representative" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Not getting a tattoo", "regret_rate": 0.15, "regret_display": "15% of non-tattooed adults say they are likely to get one (proxy -- see caveats)", "population": "US adults without tattoos" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.09, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/getting-a-tattoo" }, { "slug": "getting-a-vasectomy", "question": "Getting a vasectomy vs not getting one", "category": "health", "action_side": { "label": "Getting a vasectomy", "regret_rate": 0.06, "regret_display": "~6% of men who have had a vasectomy report regret or seek reversal", "population": "Men who have undergone vasectomy, multi-study review" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Not getting a vasectomy", "regret_rate": 0.04, "regret_display": "~4% (constructed proxy -- no direct inaction-regret survey exists)", "population": "Men without vasectomy, estimated from contraceptive burden and unintended pregnancy literature" }, "gilovich_pattern": "balanced", "regret_delta": 0.02, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/getting-a-vasectomy" }, { "slug": "getting-breast-augmentation", "question": "Getting breast augmentation vs not getting it", "category": "health", "action_side": { "label": "Getting breast augmentation", "regret_rate": 0.07, "regret_display": "~7% regret the procedure (range 5.1–9.1% across studies)", "population": "Cosmetic breast augmentation patients, systematic review" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Not getting breast augmentation", "regret_rate": 0.05, "regret_display": "~5% (proxy estimate -- no direct inaction-regret survey exists)", "population": "US adult women considering but not pursuing cosmetic procedures" }, "gilovich_pattern": "balanced", "regret_delta": 0.02, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/getting-breast-augmentation" }, { "slug": "getting-lasik", "question": "Getting LASIK eye surgery vs staying with glasses or contacts", "category": "health", "action_side": { "label": "Getting LASIK", "regret_rate": 0.04, "regret_display": "1–4% dissatisfied with vision or surgery (PROWL studies)", "population": "LASIK patients, FDA-collaborated prospective observational studies" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Staying with glasses or contacts", "regret_rate": 0.25, "regret_display": "~25% (proxy: glasses/contact wearers who actively considered LASIK but did not proceed)", "population": "US adults who wear corrective lenses, Gallup survey" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.21, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/getting-lasik" }, { "slug": "getting-tubal-ligation", "question": "Getting a tubal ligation vs not getting one", "category": "health", "action_side": { "label": "Getting a tubal ligation", "regret_rate": 0.127, "regret_display": "12.7% cumulative probability of regret within 14 years (CREST)", "population": "Women who underwent tubal sterilization, US prospective cohort (n=11,232)" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Not getting a tubal ligation", "regret_rate": 0.05, "regret_display": "~5% (constructed proxy -- no direct inaction-regret survey exists)", "population": "Women who chose not to undergo tubal sterilization, estimated" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.077, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/getting-tubal-ligation" }, { "slug": "gift-adult-child-down-payment-vs-not", "question": "Giving an adult child money for a home down payment vs. protecting your own retirement", "category": "financial", "action_side": { "label": "Giving the down payment gift", "regret_rate": 0.15, "regret_display": "15% of parents who helped with a down payment accepted a lower standard of living as a result", "population": "US parents who provided down payment assistance to adult children" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Not giving the down payment gift", "regret_rate": 0.22, "regret_display": "22% of parents who did not help report regret at watching their children struggle to afford housing", "population": "US parents with adult children who could not afford a home without help" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.07, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/gift-adult-child-down-payment-vs-not" }, { "slug": "giving-child-smartphone-early-vs-waiting", "question": "Giving your child a personal smartphone before age 12 vs. waiting until adolescence", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Giving a smartphone early (under age 12)", "regret_rate": 0.39, "regret_display": "39% of parents who gave their child a smartphone wish they hadn't", "population": "US parents aged 18+ with at least one child under 18 who had already given their child a smartphone, nationally representative online panel" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Waiting until adolescence (age 12 or older) to give a smartphone", "regret_rate": 0.03, "regret_display": "~3% of parents who delayed giving a smartphone wish they had given it sooner (proxy upper bound)", "population": "Parents of children who received a smartphone at age 12 or later; rate is a conservative proxy upper bound derived from secondary characterization of HMD 2024 survey and Pew 2020 attitude data — no direct regret survey of delaying parents exists" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.36, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/giving-child-smartphone-early-vs-waiting" }, { "slug": "go-to-college-vs-skip", "question": "Going to college vs entering the workforce directly", "category": "career", "action_side": { "label": "Going to college", "regret_rate": 0.33, "regret_display": "33% of graduates regret going to college", "population": "US college graduates, online panel" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Skipping college for work or trades", "regret_rate": 0.27, "regret_display": "~27% of non-college adults wish they had more education (proxy — SHED aspiration measure)", "population": "US adults without post-secondary education, nationally representative" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.06, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/go-to-college-vs-skip" }, { "slug": "going-vegetarian-vs-meat", "question": "Adopting a vegetarian or vegan diet vs continuing to eat meat", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Going vegetarian/vegan", "regret_rate": 0.84, "regret_display": "84% lapsed from vegetarianism (lapse proxy — abandonment rate, not direct regret)", "population": "US adults who have tried vegetarianism or veganism" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Continuing to eat meat", "regret_rate": 0.22, "regret_display": "22% feel guilty about eating meat all the time (guilt proxy — not direct regret)", "population": "UK non-vegan adults, nationally representative" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.62, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/going-vegetarian-vs-meat" }, { "slug": "gym-vs-sedentary", "question": "Exercising regularly vs staying sedentary", "category": "health", "action_side": { "label": "Exercising regularly", "regret_rate": 0.05, "regret_display": "~5% (anticipated-regret proxy, inverted)", "population": "Canadian university students, convenience sample" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Staying sedentary", "regret_rate": 0.52, "regret_display": "~52% of seniors regret not exercising (exercise-specific proxy)", "population": "US adults aged 65+" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.47, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/gym-vs-sedentary" }, { "slug": "harsh-discipline-vs-gentle-parenting", "question": "Disciplining with yelling and spanking vs gentle, low-intensity parenting", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Yelling and spanking as discipline", "regret_rate": 0.42, "regret_display": "42% of US parents of young children say they do not want to yell or raise their voice as quickly as they do", "population": "US parents of children aged 0-5, online survey" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Giving in / gentle low-intensity discipline", "regret_rate": 0.35, "regret_display": "35% of US parents say they tend to give in too quickly when their kids ask for things", "population": "US parents of children under 18, nationally representative panel" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.07, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/harsh-discipline-vs-gentle-parenting" }, { "slug": "have-another-child-vs-stop", "question": "Having another child vs stopping at your current family size", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Having another child", "regret_rate": 0.08, "regret_display": "~8% of parents express regret about having had a specific child", "population": "Parents in qualitative and cross-national survey research" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Stopping at current family size", "regret_rate": 0.34, "regret_display": "~34% of US adults (parents and non-parents) wish they had more children than they currently have", "population": "US adults (parents and non-parents combined), nationally representative" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.26, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/have-another-child-vs-stop" }, { "slug": "have-kids-younger-vs-delay", "question": "Starting a family before 30 vs waiting until your 30s or 40s", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Having children young (before 30)", "regret_rate": 0.24, "regret_display": "24% of parents wish they had waited longer before starting a family", "population": "US parents with children, online panel" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Delaying parenthood (30s or 40s)", "regret_rate": 0.4, "regret_display": "40% of women seeking fertility treatment 'strongly agree' they regret delaying (fertility-clinic sample)", "population": "Married adults seeking fertility treatment at nine Japanese clinics" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.16, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/have-kids-younger-vs-delay" }, { "slug": "having-children", "question": "Having children vs not having children", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Having children", "regret_rate": 0.08, "regret_display": "8% of parents", "population": "UK adults with children, nationally representative" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Not having children", "regret_rate": 0.07, "regret_display": "~7% of childless adults report life regret comparable to parents (proxy — see caveats)", "population": "US adults without children, age 70+" }, "gilovich_pattern": "balanced", "regret_delta": 0.01, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/having-children" }, { "slug": "hiring-cleaning-vs-self", "question": "Hiring a cleaning person vs cleaning yourself", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Hiring cleaning help", "regret_rate": 0.09, "regret_display": "~9% report no well-being gain from time-saving spending (well-being proxy)", "population": "Working adults, US/Canada/Denmark/Netherlands" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Cleaning yourself", "regret_rate": 0.5, "regret_display": "~50% of affluent non-outsourcers report lower well-being (well-being proxy)", "population": "Dutch millionaires and working adults, 4 countries" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.41, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/hiring-cleaning-vs-self" }, { "slug": "india-arranged-vs-love-marriage", "question": "Accepting an arranged marriage vs. marrying a partner you chose yourself in India", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Accepting an arranged marriage", "regret_rate": 0.2, "regret_display": "~20% of individuals in purely arranged marriages report low marital agency or significant dissatisfaction (directional proxy)", "population": "Married women in India; urban subsample over-represented" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Marrying a partner you chose yourself (love marriage)", "regret_rate": 0.26, "regret_display": "~26% of self-chosen marriages in India face strong family or community opposition (social-cost proxy, not direct regret rate)", "population": "Married adults in self-chosen (love) marriages, India; urban and intercaste marriages over-represented in opposition data" }, "gilovich_pattern": "balanced", "regret_delta": -0.06, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/india-arranged-vs-love-marriage" }, { "slug": "india-emigrate-abroad-vs-stay", "question": "Emigrating abroad from India for studies or career vs. building your life in India", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Emigrating from India to study or work abroad", "regret_rate": 0.22, "regret_display": "~22% of Indian emigrants report significant loneliness, identity loss, or career mismatch abroad", "population": "Indian emigrants (students and skilled workers) in UK, US, Canada, Australia" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Staying in India and building career there", "regret_rate": 0.34, "regret_display": "~34% of Indian professionals who stayed report significant income or opportunity regret", "population": "Indian professionals who chose not to emigrate despite opportunities" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.12, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/india-emigrate-abroad-vs-stay" }, { "slug": "india-medicine-career-vs-own-path", "question": "Choosing medicine under parental pressure vs. following your own career path in India", "category": "career", "action_side": { "label": "Choosing MBBS under parental pressure", "regret_rate": 0.39, "regret_display": "39% of first-year MBBS students regret choosing medicine", "population": "First-year MBBS students in Telangana, India" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Following your own career path", "regret_rate": 0.22, "regret_display": "22% of those who pursued non-medicine paths regret reduced status or economic outcomes", "population": "Indian graduates who chose non-MBBS/non-engineering paths" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.17, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/india-medicine-career-vs-own-path" }, { "slug": "initiate-reconciliation-vs-let-lapse", "question": "Reaching out to repair a broken relationship vs. letting it fade", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Reaching out to reconcile", "regret_rate": 0.12, "regret_display": "~12% report negative outcomes after initiating contact (inferred proxy — not a direct regret measure)", "population": "Adults who reached out to an estranged friend or acquaintance; US and Canadian participants" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Letting the relationship lapse", "regret_rate": 0.57, "regret_display": "~57% of adults with a lapsed relationship report wishing they had reached out sooner (estimated from multiple surveys)", "population": "US adults; nationally representative and online panels" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.45, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/initiate-reconciliation-vs-let-lapse" }, { "slug": "intermittent-fasting-vs-regular-meals", "question": "Adopting intermittent fasting (16:8, 5:2, alternate-day) vs eating on a regular 3-meals schedule", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Adopting intermittent fasting", "regret_rate": 0.78, "regret_display": "78% no longer adhering at 12 months in whole-day fasting trials (lapse proxy — long-term abandonment, not direct regret)", "population": "Adults enrolled in whole-day fasting trials with follow-up beyond 52 weeks" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Eating on a regular 3-meals-per-day schedule", "regret_rate": 0.27, "regret_display": "27% of US adults actively working to lose weight (weight-management-intent proxy — not direct regret about meal pattern)", "population": "US adults, nationally representative" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.51, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/intermittent-fasting-vs-regular-meals" }, { "slug": "invest-early-vs-wait", "question": "Investing in the stock market early vs keeping money in savings accounts or term deposits", "category": "financial", "action_side": { "label": "Investing early in stocks/markets", "regret_rate": 0.12, "regret_display": "~12% regret starting to invest when they did", "population": "US adults who invest, online panel" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Keeping money in savings/term deposits", "regret_rate": 0.43, "regret_display": "43% say not investing earlier is their biggest financial mistake", "population": "US adults, online panel" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.31, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/invest-early-vs-wait" }, { "slug": "invest-vs-save", "question": "Investing in the stock market vs keeping money in savings", "category": "financial", "action_side": { "label": "Investing in the stock market", "regret_rate": 0.15, "regret_display": "~15% cite investment-related financial regrets", "population": "US adults, nationally representative" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Keeping money in savings", "regret_rate": 0.43, "regret_display": "43% say not investing earlier is their biggest financial mistake", "population": "US adults, online panel" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.28, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/invest-vs-save" }, { "slug": "ivf-vs-adopt", "question": "Pursue IVF to have a biological child vs. adopting", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Pursue IVF", "regret_rate": 0.21, "regret_display": "~21% of couples who pursued IVF express significant regret, primarily after multiple failed cycles", "population": "Couples who underwent ≥2 IVF cycles globally (Verhaak et al. 2007 systematic review; ICMART global ART data)" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Adopt a child", "regret_rate": 0.05, "regret_display": "~5% of adoptive parents report significant regret or disruption of the adoption", "population": "Domestic and international adoptive parents (US AFCARS data; Brodzinsky et al. review)" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.16, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/ivf-vs-adopt" }, { "slug": "japan-lifetime-employment-vs-job-change", "question": "Committing to lifetime employment at one Japanese company vs. changing jobs mid-career", "category": "career", "action_side": { "label": "Staying with one company for life", "regret_rate": 0.45, "regret_display": "45% of Japanese workers who never changed jobs wish they had changed employers earlier", "population": "Japanese workers who remained at one company throughout their career" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Changing jobs mid-career", "regret_rate": 0.26, "regret_display": "26% of Japanese mid-career job-changers regret the loss of seniority, pension, or social belonging", "population": "Japanese workers who changed employers mid-career" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.19, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/japan-lifetime-employment-vs-job-change" }, { "slug": "japan-overwork-stay-vs-leave", "question": "Staying in a high-overtime Japanese workplace vs. leaving for better work-life balance", "category": "career", "action_side": { "label": "Staying in a high-overtime job", "regret_rate": 0.46, "regret_display": "46% of workers in high-overtime jobs report burnout-level dissatisfaction", "population": "Japanese workers in high-overtime environments" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Leaving for better work-life balance", "regret_rate": 0.24, "regret_display": "24% of Japanese job-changers report regretting the loss of seniority or stability", "population": "Japanese workers who changed jobs away from high-overtime employers" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.22, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/japan-overwork-stay-vs-leave" }, { "slug": "japan-women-quit-career-at-childbirth-vs-stay", "question": "Japanese women leaving full employment at marriage or childbirth vs. continuing to work", "category": "career", "action_side": { "label": "Leaving employment at childbirth", "regret_rate": 0.49, "regret_display": "49% of Japanese women who left work at childbirth cite being pushed out rather than choosing to leave", "population": "Japanese women who left full employment at marriage or childbirth" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Continuing to work through childbirth", "regret_rate": 0.31, "regret_display": "31% of Japanese working mothers report career advancement blocked by maternity discrimination (matahara)", "population": "Japanese women who continued full employment through marriage and childbirth" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.18, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/japan-women-quit-career-at-childbirth-vs-stay" }, { "slug": "korea-civil-service-vs-private-sector", "question": "Entering South Korean civil service vs. pursuing a private sector career", "category": "career", "action_side": { "label": "Entering civil service", "regret_rate": 0.58, "regret_display": "58% of voluntary resignations from South Korean central government come from employees with fewer than 5 years of service", "population": "South Korean central government civil servants" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Choosing the private sector", "regret_rate": 0.22, "regret_display": "~22% of South Korean private sector workers report job insecurity as a significant career regret", "population": "South Korean private sector workers" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.36, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/korea-civil-service-vs-private-sector" }, { "slug": "korea-cosmetic-surgery-social-pressure", "question": "Having cosmetic surgery to meet South Korean appearance standards vs. declining", "category": "health", "action_side": { "label": "Having cosmetic surgery to conform to Korean appearance norms", "regret_rate": 0.32, "regret_display": "32.3% of South Korean cosmetic surgery patients report dissatisfaction with results", "population": "South Korean cosmetic surgery patients" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Declining cosmetic surgery and resisting appearance pressure", "regret_rate": 0.2, "regret_display": "~20% of those who decline surgery face appearance-based discrimination or social exclusion", "population": "South Korean young adults who declined cosmetic procedures despite social pressure" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.12, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/korea-cosmetic-surgery-social-pressure" }, { "slug": "korea-mandatory-military-service-vs-alternative", "question": "Serving standard South Korean mandatory military service vs. applying for alternative civilian service", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Serving standard mandatory military service (18-21 months)", "regret_rate": 0.44, "regret_display": "44% of Korean men who served say military service had more disadvantages than advantages", "population": "South Korean men who completed mandatory military service, nationally representative" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Applying for alternative civilian service (36 months)", "regret_rate": 0.29, "regret_display": "~29% of alternative service applicants face significant social stigma or career delays", "population": "South Korean men who applied for or completed alternative civilian service (post-2019 cohort)" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.15, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/korea-mandatory-military-service-vs-alternative" }, { "slug": "late-career-retraining-vs-stay-put", "question": "Going back to school or retraining mid-career (age 40+) vs continuing in current career", "category": "career", "action_side": { "label": "Midlife retraining or career change at 40+", "regret_rate": 0.18, "regret_display": "~18% of workers who changed careers after 45 did NOT report being pleased with the new role (82% were pleased or extremely pleased)", "population": "US workers age 47+ who changed careers, AIER survey" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Staying in current career, not retraining", "regret_rate": 0.24, "regret_display": "~24% of US workers age 50+ are planning a job change in 2025, signalling latent dissatisfaction among those still in their current career", "population": "US workers age 50+ still employed, AARP 2024 wave" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.06, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/late-career-retraining-vs-stay-put" }, { "slug": "leave-abusive-partner-vs-stay", "question": "Leaving an abusive relationship vs. staying", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Leaving the abusive relationship", "regret_rate": 0.18, "regret_display": "18% of IPV survivors who permanently left report significant short-term regret", "population": "IPV survivors who permanently left abusive relationships" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Staying in the abusive relationship", "regret_rate": 0.55, "regret_display": "55% of long-term IPV victims report wishing they had left sooner", "population": "Adults with history of intimate partner violence, retrospective" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.37, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/leave-abusive-partner-vs-stay" }, { "slug": "leave-high-control-group-vs-stay", "question": "Leaving a high-control religious or ideological group vs. staying", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Leaving a high-control religious or ideological group", "regret_rate": 0.2, "regret_display": "~20% of former high-control group members experience prolonged identity crisis or grief after leaving", "population": "Former members of high-control religious or ideological groups" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Staying in the high-control group", "regret_rate": 0.52, "regret_display": "~52% of members of high-control religious environments report significant suppressed doubt while still a member", "population": "Current or recent members of high-control religious or ideological groups" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.32, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/leave-high-control-group-vs-stay" }, { "slug": "leave-hometown-vs-stay", "question": "Leaving your hometown vs staying close to where you grew up", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Leaving your hometown", "regret_rate": 0.2, "regret_display": "20% of Americans who moved regret it (1 in 5 movers within 3 years)", "population": "US homeowners who moved within the prior 3 years" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Staying close to where you grew up", "regret_rate": 0.3, "regret_display": "~30% of hometown stayers report dissatisfaction with their communities (proxy — see caveats)", "population": "US adults who never left their hometown community" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.1, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/leave-hometown-vs-stay" }, { "slug": "leaving-religion-vs-staying", "question": "Leaving your religion vs staying in the faith", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Leaving your religion", "regret_rate": 0.09, "regret_display": "9% of religiously unaffiliated US adults say they are looking for a religion (proxy — see caveats)", "population": "US adults who are religiously unaffiliated after leaving a childhood religion" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Staying in the faith", "regret_rate": 0.26, "regret_display": "26% of self-identified Christians report ongoing unresolved spiritual doubt (proxy — see caveats)", "population": "US adults who self-identify as Christian" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.17, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/leaving-religion-vs-staying" }, { "slug": "legal-guardianship-vs-supported-decisions", "question": "Seeking full legal guardianship over an incapacitated adult family member vs using supported decision-making or power of attorney", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Full legal guardianship / conservatorship", "regret_rate": 0.26, "regret_display": "26% of US family caregivers report regrets — the same baseline applies to guardianship families; no guardianship-specific regret survey exists (proxy)", "population": "US family caregivers (all types), nationally representative; used as the best available proxy for families who pursued full legal guardianship" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Supported decision-making, power of attorney, or limited guardianship", "regret_rate": 0.26, "regret_display": "26% of US family caregivers report regrets — used as a proxy for families who chose less-restrictive arrangements (AARP 2017 caregiver regret baseline)", "population": "US family caregivers, nationally representative; used as proxy for families who relied on supported decision-making or POA rather than full guardianship" }, "gilovich_pattern": "balanced", "regret_delta": 0, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/legal-guardianship-vs-supported-decisions" }, { "slug": "lend-money-vs-refuse", "question": "Lending money to family vs refusing to lend", "category": "financial", "action_side": { "label": "Lending money to family or friends", "regret_rate": 0.37, "regret_display": "27-46% of lenders regret it", "population": "US adults who lent money to family or friends" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Refusing to lend money to family or friends", "regret_rate": 0.26, "regret_display": "26% say refusing ended a relationship (proxy -- see caveats)", "population": "US adults who refused to lend money to family or friends" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.11, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/lend-money-vs-refuse" }, { "slug": "let-ai-do-schoolwork-vs-write-yourself", "question": "Letting AI write your school assignment or job application vs writing it yourself", "category": "career", "action_side": { "label": "Using AI to write the assignment", "regret_rate": 0.6, "regret_display": "~60% of student AI users agreed AI for schoolwork harms critical thinking (Dec 2025 proxy); 11% of ChatGPT-using job seekers were denied a job after the employer discovered it", "population": "US students ages 12–29 who use AI for schoolwork; separately, US adult job seekers who used ChatGPT for resumes/cover letters" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Writing it yourself", "regret_rate": 0.18, "regret_display": "~18% (proxy; estimated from share of non-AI students who report concern about falling behind classmates who use AI; no direct survey)", "population": "US students ages 12–29 who do not use AI for schoolwork" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.42, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/let-ai-do-schoolwork-vs-write-yourself" }, { "slug": "letting-child-quit-activity-vs-finishing", "question": "When a child wants to stop music lessons, a sport, or another activity mid-commitment, do parents regret making them finish — or regret letting them quit?", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Making the child finish the commitment", "regret_rate": 0.21, "regret_display": "~21% of former youth athletes reported being pressured to play when they didn't want to (forced-continuation proxy)", "population": "Former youth athletes ages 10-17, US nationally representative" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Letting the child quit when they want to stop", "regret_rate": 0.48, "regret_display": "48% of adults who quit piano as children regret it (music-regret proxy)", "population": "US adults who played piano and subsequently quit, subset of nationally representative sample" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.27, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/letting-child-quit-activity-vs-finishing" }, { "slug": "litigate-vs-settle", "question": "Taking a civil dispute to court vs settling or walking away", "category": "financial", "action_side": { "label": "Taking the dispute to court", "regret_rate": 0.61, "regret_display": "61% of plaintiffs who reject settlement get a worse outcome at trial", "population": "Plaintiffs in California civil litigation who rejected settlement and proceeded to trial or arbitration" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Settling or not pursuing a legal claim", "regret_rate": 0.74, "regret_display": "74% of low-income Americans with civil legal problems received no or inadequate legal help (proxy for unmet legal-action regret)", "population": "Low-income US adults with at least one substantial civil legal problem in the prior year" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.13, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/litigate-vs-settle" }, { "slug": "long-term-care-insurance-vs-self-insure", "question": "Buying long-term care insurance in your 50s vs. self-insuring and relying on assets or Medicaid", "category": "financial", "action_side": { "label": "Purchasing long-term care insurance", "regret_rate": 0.25, "regret_display": "~25% of LTC insurance buyers lapse their policy within 10 years, paying premiums for no benefit", "population": "US long-term care insurance policyholders" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Self-insuring or relying on Medicaid without LTC coverage", "regret_rate": 0.44, "regret_display": "44% of Medicaid nursing home residents spent down all assets within 2 years of admission", "population": "US adults over 65 who needed long-term care without insurance" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.19, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/long-term-care-insurance-vs-self-insure" }, { "slug": "low-sodium-diet-vs-regular-salt", "question": "Deliberately reducing dietary sodium toward the AHA 1,500-2,300 mg target vs continuing typical US salt intake", "category": "health", "action_side": { "label": "Adopting a low-sodium diet", "regret_rate": 0.7, "regret_display": "~70% long-term low-sodium-diet adherence failure (lapse proxy — abandonment among heart-failure patients, not direct regret)", "population": "US adults with heart failure on prescribed sodium-restricted diet" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Continuing typical US salt intake", "regret_rate": 0.48, "regret_display": "47.7% of US adults have hypertension (downstream-risk proxy — clinical state, not direct regret about salt habits)", "population": "US adults aged 18+, NHANES nationally representative" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.22, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/low-sodium-diet-vs-regular-salt" }, { "slug": "maid-vs-natural-death", "question": "Medical aid in dying vs. comfort care for a terminal illness", "category": "health", "action_side": { "label": "Medical aid in dying (MAID)", "regret_rate": 0.05, "regret_display": "~5% of bereaved families report distress or regret after MAID", "population": "Bereaved families of MAID patients in Belgium, Netherlands, Canada, and Oregon (multi-jurisdictional data)" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Comfort care / hospice (natural death)", "regret_rate": 0.25, "regret_display": "~25% of bereaved families report unmet needs or regret about end-of-life care quality", "population": "Bereaved families of terminally ill patients who died without MAID in US and European hospice/hospital settings" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.2, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/maid-vs-natural-death" }, { "slug": "maintain-friendship-vs-let-drift", "question": "Maintaining friendships vs letting them drift", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Actively maintaining friendships", "regret_rate": 0.08, "regret_display": "~8% of friendship-maintainers report feeling drained or regret the effort", "population": "US adults who report actively maintaining close friendships" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Letting friendships drift", "regret_rate": 0.47, "regret_display": "47% of Americans report losing touch with friends they still cared about in the past year", "population": "US adults, nationally representative" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.39, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/maintain-friendship-vs-let-drift" }, { "slug": "marry-first-relationship-vs-date-more", "question": "Marrying your first serious partner vs. dating more people before committing", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Committing to and marrying your first serious partner", "regret_rate": 0.3, "regret_display": "30% of married adults wish they had married someone more compatible", "population": "Married US adults" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Dating widely before committing", "regret_rate": 0.16, "regret_display": "~16% of those who dated extensively regret delayed commitment or missed early family years", "population": "US adults who had multiple long-term relationships before marrying" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.14, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/marry-first-relationship-vs-date-more" }, { "slug": "marry-young-vs-wait", "question": "Marrying young (before 25) vs. waiting until your late 20s or 30s", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Marrying before age 25", "regret_rate": 0.23, "regret_display": "23% of married Americans regret marrying too young", "population": "Married US adults" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Waiting until late 20s or 30s", "regret_rate": 0.15, "regret_display": "15% of adults who delayed marriage regret reduced family-formation time", "population": "Adults who married later or remained unmarried, US nationally representative" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.08, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/marry-young-vs-wait" }, { "slug": "masters-vs-stop-at-bachelors", "question": "Pursuing a master's degree vs stopping at a bachelor's degree", "category": "career", "action_side": { "label": "Pursuing a master's degree", "regret_rate": 0.4, "regret_display": "~40% of master's degree programs leave graduates with negative lifetime financial returns", "population": "US master's degree programs (financial-ROI proxy, not direct regret survey)" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Stopping at a bachelor's degree", "regret_rate": 0.25, "regret_display": "~25% of bachelor's-only holders express dissatisfaction with their education-relevance and earnings position vs postgraduate peers", "population": "US adults whose highest credential is a bachelor's degree" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.15, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/masters-vs-stop-at-bachelors" }, { "slug": "maximize-vs-satisfice", "question": "Always seeking the best possible option in major life choices vs accepting 'good enough'", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Maximizing — searching exhaustively for the best option", "regret_rate": 0.45, "regret_display": "r ≈ 0.45 correlation between maximizing tendency and regret-proneness (proxy — see caveats)", "population": "Adults across seven samples (US college students, US adults, internet panels)" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Satisficing — picking the first acceptable option", "regret_rate": 0.15, "regret_display": "~15% inferred regret rate for satisficers (inferred from the inverse maximizing-wellbeing literature — proxy, see caveats)", "population": "Adults; conceptual inference from cross-sectional maximizing-wellbeing surveys" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.3, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/maximize-vs-satisfice" }, { "slug": "move-abroad-vs-stay", "question": "Moving to another country vs staying in your home country", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Moving abroad", "regret_rate": 0.06, "regret_display": "6% of British expats say they regret their decision to move abroad", "population": "British citizens living abroad" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Staying in your home country", "regret_rate": 0.34, "regret_display": "34% of UK adults who never lived abroad believe their career would have been better if they had (proxy -- see caveats)", "population": "UK adults who had not lived or studied abroad for 6+ months" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.28, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/move-abroad-vs-stay" }, { "slug": "negotiate-car-price-vs-accept", "question": "Negotiating a car price vs accepting the dealer's first offer", "category": "financial", "action_side": { "label": "Negotiating the price", "regret_rate": 0.14, "regret_display": "~14% of car buyers who negotiate report dissatisfaction with the process or outcome (proxy from friction and buyer-remorse literature)", "population": "US and UK car buyers who attempted price negotiation" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Accepting the dealer's first offer", "regret_rate": 0.23, "regret_display": "23% of car buyers say overpaying is their single worst car-buying mistake", "population": "US adults who purchased a car" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.09, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/negotiate-car-price-vs-accept" }, { "slug": "negotiate-medical-bill-vs-pay-full", "question": "Negotiating a medical bill vs paying the stated amount in full", "category": "financial", "action_side": { "label": "Negotiating the medical bill", "regret_rate": 0.05, "regret_display": "~5% of patients who negotiate medical bills regret doing so (proxy; 93% achieve at least partial success)", "population": "US adults who attempted to negotiate a medical bill" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Paying the stated amount in full", "regret_rate": 0.38, "regret_display": "~38% of patients who paid without negotiating likely regret it, based on the false-belief gap (proxy; 86% of non-negotiators believed negotiating wouldn't help — when in fact 62–93% who try succeed)", "population": "US adults who received a medical bill and did not attempt to negotiate" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.33, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/negotiate-medical-bill-vs-pay-full" }, { "slug": "negotiate-rent-vs-accept", "question": "Negotiating your rent vs accepting the asking price", "category": "financial", "action_side": { "label": "Negotiating rent", "regret_rate": 0.18, "regret_display": "~18% of renters who attempted to negotiate report dissatisfaction with the outcome (proxy from attempt and success-rate data)", "population": "US renters who attempted rent negotiation at lease signing or renewal" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Accepting the asking price", "regret_rate": 0.35, "regret_display": "~35% of renters who never negotiated believe they are overpaying and wish they had asked (proxy from awareness-gap data)", "population": "US renters who have never negotiated their lease terms" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.17, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/negotiate-rent-vs-accept" }, { "slug": "negotiate-salary-vs-accept", "question": "Negotiating your salary vs accepting the initial offer", "category": "career", "action_side": { "label": "Negotiating salary", "regret_rate": 0.13, "regret_display": "~13% regret negotiating (complement proxy — 87% said they were glad)", "population": "US workers who negotiated, online panel" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Accepting without negotiating", "regret_rate": 0.57, "regret_display": "57% regret not negotiating (includes those who negotiated timidly)", "population": "US workers, online panel" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.44, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/negotiate-salary-vs-accept" }, { "slug": "new-car-vs-used", "question": "Buying a new car vs buying a used one", "category": "financial", "action_side": { "label": "Buying new", "regret_rate": 0.39, "regret_display": "39% of car buyers have purchase regrets", "population": "US car owners, online panel" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Buying used", "regret_rate": 0.21, "regret_display": "~21% of car buyers are dissatisfied (satisfaction inverse)", "population": "US car buyers, industry panel" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.18, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/new-car-vs-used" }, { "slug": "non-alcoholic-substitute-vs-keep-drinking", "question": "Swapping alcoholic drinks for non-alcoholic alternatives (0.0% beer, NA wine, mocktails) at the same social occasions vs continuing to drink alcohol", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Substituting non-alcoholic alternatives", "regret_rate": 0.33, "regret_display": "~33% of NA-trial participants did not reduce drinking (non-responder proxy — randomized-trial failure rate, not direct regret)", "population": "Japanese adults who drink heavily (>=40 g/day men, >=20 g/day women) but without alcohol dependence" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Continuing to drink alcohol", "regret_rate": 0.7, "regret_display": "70% of drinkers regretted getting drunk in the past year", "population": "Global, 31 countries, self-selected online panel" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.37, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/non-alcoholic-substitute-vs-keep-drinking" }, { "slug": "nursing-home-vs-home-care", "question": "Placing an aging parent in a care facility vs providing care at home yourself", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Care facility placement", "regret_rate": 0.54, "regret_display": "54% of families report feeling at least somewhat guilty after nursing home placement (guilt proxy)", "population": "US adults with a family member in a nursing home" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Home-based family caregiving", "regret_rate": 0.23, "regret_display": "23% of home caregivers report their health has worsened due to caregiving (burden proxy)", "population": "US family caregivers, nationally representative" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.31, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/nursing-home-vs-home-care" }, { "slug": "open-relationship-vs-monogamy", "question": "Opening a relationship to consensual non-monogamy vs staying strictly monogamous", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Opening to consensual non-monogamy", "regret_rate": 0.15, "regret_display": "~15% estimated regret rate for opening (proxy; no direct regret-of-opening survey; constructed from CNM-monogamy satisfaction parity plus elevated transition-period dissolution signal)", "population": "US adults who have engaged in CNM, online and convenience samples" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Staying strictly monogamous", "regret_rate": 0.21, "regret_display": "~21% of US adults report having engaged in CNM at some point in their lifetime — a revealed-preference floor on the share of monogamous adults who would regret never having tried (proxy)", "population": "US single adults, two nationally representative samples" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.06, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/open-relationship-vs-monogamy" }, { "slug": "opioid-mat-vs-abstinence-only", "question": "Using medication-assisted treatment (buprenorphine/methadone) for opioid addiction vs abstinence-only recovery", "category": "health", "action_side": { "label": "Medication-assisted treatment (MAT)", "regret_rate": 0.18, "regret_display": "18% of MAT patients reported dissatisfaction with their medication (dissatisfaction proxy)", "population": "Adults with opioid use disorder using buprenorphine/naloxone or methadone, self-reported reviews on health-related social media" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Abstinence-only recovery (no medication)", "regret_rate": 0.7, "regret_display": "~70% of people completing opioid detoxification without ongoing medication relapse within 12–36 months (relapse proxy)", "population": "Adults with opioid use disorder completing inpatient or residential detoxification without ongoing pharmacotherapy" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.52, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/opioid-mat-vs-abstinence-only" }, { "slug": "overstay-visa-vs-leave", "question": "Staying in a country after your visa expires vs leaving on time", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Staying after the visa expires (overstaying)", "regret_rate": 0.44, "regret_display": "~44% proxy: share of likely undocumented immigrants who report significant negative life impact from immigration enforcement fears, paired with the 56% who say they would still choose to come", "population": "Likely undocumented immigrants in the United States (includes visa overstays)" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Leaving on time (complying with visa terms)", "regret_rate": 0.35, "regret_display": "~35% proxy: share of temporary visa holders who report significant regret or unfulfilled aspiration about having to leave the US", "population": "Foreign nationals who left the US upon visa expiration and wish they had been able to stay" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.09, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/overstay-visa-vs-leave" }, { "slug": "overthinking-vs-deciding", "question": "Deliberating extensively before a decision vs deciding quickly and moving on", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Deciding quickly (satisficing)", "regret_rate": 0.2, "regret_display": "~20% of satisficers above Regret Scale midpoint (derived from continuous scale scores, not a binary survey)", "population": "US college students and adults, seven convenience samples" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Overthinking (maximizing)", "regret_rate": 0.52, "regret_display": "~52% of maximizers above Regret Scale midpoint (derived from continuous scale scores, not a binary survey)", "population": "US college students and adults, seven convenience samples" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.32, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/overthinking-vs-deciding" }, { "slug": "payday-loan-vs-go-without", "question": "Taking a payday loan vs going without the money", "category": "financial", "action_side": { "label": "Taking the payday loan", "regret_rate": 0.37, "regret_display": "37% of payday borrowers say the loan made their financial situation worse", "population": "US payday loan borrowers, nationally representative survey" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Going without the loan", "regret_rate": 0.35, "regret_display": "~35% of those who forgo payday loans face hardship (bill cascades, late fees)", "population": "US adults who declined or were denied payday loans" }, "gilovich_pattern": "balanced", "regret_delta": 0.02, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/payday-loan-vs-go-without" }, { "slug": "pension-lump-sum-vs-annuity", "question": "Take a pension payout as a lump sum vs. as a monthly annuity", "category": "financial", "action_side": { "label": "Take the lump sum", "regret_rate": 0.31, "regret_display": "31% of lump-sum recipients who made major purchases regret the decision", "population": "US retirees who elected a lump-sum pension payout (MetLife Paycheck or Pot of Gold survey)" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Take the monthly annuity", "regret_rate": 0.27, "regret_display": "27% of annuity holders wish they had more liquid assets in retirement", "population": "US retirees receiving defined-benefit pension annuity payments (EBRI 2023 Retirement Confidence Survey)" }, "gilovich_pattern": "balanced", "regret_delta": 0.04, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/pension-lump-sum-vs-annuity" }, { "slug": "persist-through-difficulty-vs-quit-early", "question": "Persisting through a major difficulty (business, creative project, training) vs. quitting when it gets hard", "category": "career", "action_side": { "label": "Persisting through major difficulty in a long-term pursuit", "regret_rate": 0.12, "regret_display": "~12% of high-persistence individuals report their effort was misdirected in retrospect", "population": "Adults who persisted through major difficulties in long-term projects, multiple populations" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Quitting when a pursuit becomes difficult", "regret_rate": 0.43, "regret_display": "43% of adults report regret about giving up on a goal or project too soon", "population": "Adults globally who gave up on a significant personal or professional goal" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.31, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/persist-through-difficulty-vs-quit-early" }, { "slug": "phd-vs-enter-industry-early", "question": "Pursuing a PhD vs. entering the workforce after a bachelor's degree", "category": "career", "action_side": { "label": "Pursuing a PhD", "regret_rate": 0.41, "regret_display": "41% of PhD graduates who end up outside academia express regret about the time cost", "population": "US PhD graduates, all fields" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Entering industry after a bachelor's", "regret_rate": 0.19, "regret_display": "19% of those who entered industry without a PhD later wish they had pursued one", "population": "US workers with bachelor's degrees in research-adjacent fields" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.22, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/phd-vs-enter-industry-early" }, { "slug": "philippines-ofw-work-abroad-vs-stay", "question": "Working abroad as an OFW vs. staying in the Philippines", "category": "career", "action_side": { "label": "Taking an OFW overseas contract", "regret_rate": 0.38, "regret_display": "38% of OFW parents report significant psychological distress over family separation", "population": "Filipino OFW parents in Dubai" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Staying in the Philippines", "regret_rate": 0.28, "regret_display": "~28% of non-migrants in OFW-sending communities express regret over foregone income", "population": "Filipino non-migrants in OFW-sending communities" }, "gilovich_pattern": "balanced", "regret_delta": 0.1, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/philippines-ofw-work-abroad-vs-stay" }, { "slug": "post-sensitive-story-publicly-vs-keep-private", "question": "Sharing a sensitive personal story publicly (on social media, in a memoir, or to media) vs. keeping it private", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Sharing a sensitive personal story publicly (on social media, in writing, or to media)", "regret_rate": 0.44, "regret_display": "44% of adults regret oversharing personal information on social media", "population": "US adults who have shared personal information on social media" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Keeping the sensitive story private, not sharing publicly", "regret_rate": 0.18, "regret_display": "~18% of people who kept a difficult experience private later regret not speaking up or sharing", "population": "Adults who experienced significant hardship or personal narrative but chose not to share it publicly" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.26, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/post-sensitive-story-publicly-vs-keep-private" }, { "slug": "postpone-trip-due-illness-vs-travel", "question": "Postpone or cancel a planned trip because of acute illness, recent surgery, or elevated health risk (pregnancy, immunocompromise, destination outbreak) vs. travel as planned", "category": "health", "action_side": { "label": "Postpone or cancel the planned trip because of acute illness, recent surgery, pregnancy with complications, immunocompromise, or an active outbreak at the destination", "regret_rate": 0.22, "regret_display": "~22% of travelers who cancelled a trip for illness or medical reasons report regret, driven mainly by non-refundable financial loss and the realization that the underlying condition turned out milder than feared; regret is much lower (~10-15%) when the cancellation prevented a hospitalization or in-flight medical event that the trip would otherwise have produced", "population": "US/UK/EU travelers who cancelled or postponed a planned trip within 14 days of departure because of new acute illness (URI, gastroenteritis, post-surgical complication, acute psychiatric crisis) or an aerospace-medicine contraindication (recent thoracic/abdominal/intraocular surgery, untreated pneumothorax, obstetric complication, severe immunocompromise during a destination outbreak)" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Travel as planned despite acute illness, recent surgery, pregnancy complication, immunocompromise during a destination outbreak, or other aerospace-medicine warning", "regret_rate": 0.52, "regret_display": "~52% of travelers who flew while acutely ill report regret, driven by symptomatic worsening, ear and sinus barotrauma during descent, transmission to family or seatmates, and the small but vivid tail of in-flight medical diversions and post-trip hospitalization", "population": "US/UK/EU adult travelers who boarded a commercial flight while symptomatic with an acute URI, recent gastroenteritis, recent surgery within the CDC Yellow Book deferral window, pregnancy with a flagged obstetric complication, or active immunocompromise during a destination outbreak — extrapolated from aerospace-medicine outcome literature (barotrauma incidence, in-flight medical event rates, post-operative complication clusters) because no direct regret survey exists for the decision" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.3, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/postpone-trip-due-illness-vs-travel" }, { "slug": "practical-major-vs-passion", "question": "Choosing a practical/lucrative college major vs following your passion", "category": "career", "action_side": { "label": "Choosing a practical major", "regret_rate": 0.29, "regret_display": "~29% of practical-major graduates would choose a different field", "population": "US adults with bachelor's degrees, nationally representative" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Following your passion", "regret_rate": 0.44, "regret_display": "44% of humanities/social-science graduates would choose a different field", "population": "US adults with bachelor's degrees, nationally representative" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.15, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/practical-major-vs-passion" }, { "slug": "prenuptial-agreement-vs-not", "question": "Getting a prenuptial agreement before marriage vs. marrying without one", "category": "financial", "action_side": { "label": "Signing a prenuptial agreement", "regret_rate": 0.08, "regret_display": "8% of those who signed a prenup feel it damaged marital trust", "population": "Married adults who signed prenuptial agreements, US" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Marrying without a prenuptial agreement", "regret_rate": 0.15, "regret_display": "15% of divorced adults without a prenup regret not having had one", "population": "Divorced adults in the US who lacked a prenuptial agreement" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.07, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/prenuptial-agreement-vs-not" }, { "slug": "private-vs-public-education", "question": "Sending children to private school vs public school", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Private school", "regret_rate": 0.13, "regret_display": "13% of private-school parents would not choose the same school again (proxy — re-choice likelihood)", "population": "US parents of K-12 students, nationally representative" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Public school", "regret_rate": 0.41, "regret_display": "41% of public-school parents would not choose the same school again (proxy — re-choice likelihood)", "population": "US parents of K-12 students, nationally representative" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.28, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/private-vs-public-education" }, { "slug": "private-vs-public-healthcare", "question": "Paying for private healthcare vs relying on the public system", "category": "health", "action_side": { "label": "Paying for private healthcare", "regret_rate": 0.03, "regret_display": "~3% of private hospital patients would not recommend their care", "population": "UK private hospital inpatients (PHIN-reporting hospitals, circle Health Group 38 hospitals), n=86,772 patient questionnaires Jan–Dec 2025" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Relying on NHS / public healthcare only", "regret_rate": 0.05, "regret_display": "~5% of NHS inpatients would not recommend their care (FFT 2016-19)", "population": "NHS England inpatients, 128 non-specialist acute providers, Apr 2016 – Mar 2019 (est. 1.5M+ annual FFT responses across trusts)" }, "gilovich_pattern": "balanced", "regret_delta": -0.02, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/private-vs-public-healthcare" }, { "slug": "private-vs-public-university", "question": "Attending a private university vs choosing a comparable public university", "category": "career", "action_side": { "label": "Private four-year university", "regret_rate": 0.17, "regret_display": "17% of private-college graduates say their degree wasn't worth the financial cost (proxy)", "population": "US adults who attended a private nonprofit four-year college, nationally representative" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Public four-year university", "regret_rate": 0.14, "regret_display": "14% of public-college graduates say their degree wasn't worth the financial cost (proxy)", "population": "US adults who attended a public four-year college, nationally representative" }, "gilovich_pattern": "balanced", "regret_delta": 0.03, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/private-vs-public-university" }, { "slug": "procrastination-vs-acting", "question": "Procrastinating vs acting on important tasks immediately", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Acting immediately", "regret_rate": 0.2, "regret_display": "~20% of non-procrastinators report negative affect about rushed decisions (estimated — see caveats)", "population": "US college students and adults" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Procrastinating", "regret_rate": 0.95, "regret_display": "95% of procrastinators wish to reduce their procrastination (desire-to-change proxy)", "population": "Meta-analytic synthesis of procrastinators" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.75, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/procrastination-vs-acting" }, { "slug": "pursue-fertility-treatment-vs-not", "question": "Pursue fertility treatment after an infertility diagnosis vs. accept childlessness", "category": "health", "action_side": { "label": "Pursue fertility treatment", "regret_rate": 0.2, "regret_display": "~20% of people who pursued fertility treatment and did not achieve a child", "population": "Infertile women and their partners — US longitudinal cohort (Cusatis et al. 2023, PMC10633954)" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Accept childlessness without pursuing treatment", "regret_rate": 0.33, "regret_display": "~33% of infertile women who declined treatment showed elevated regret at follow-up (proxy — no-treatment subgroup had highest regret scores in cohort)", "population": "Infertile women who chose not to pursue any treatment — Cusatis et al. 2023 (PMC10633954) no-treatment subgroup (n≈20)" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.13, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/pursue-fertility-treatment-vs-not" }, { "slug": "pursue-longevity-vs-accept-aging", "question": "Pursuing active longevity interventions (supplements, fasting, biohacking) vs accepting standard aging", "category": "health", "action_side": { "label": "Actively pursuing longevity (fasting, supplements, biohacking)", "regret_rate": 0.3, "regret_display": "~30% inferred regret-equivalent rate (proxy: pharmaceutical geroprotection uptake + supplement abandonment — see caveats)", "population": "Adults across surveyed cohorts (Dutch geroprotection survey, US dietary supplement users)" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Accepting standard aging (no biohacking, conventional medical care)", "regret_rate": 0.56, "regret_display": "56% of US adults say they would NOT want medical treatments to dramatically extend life (Pew 2013) — anticipatory non-regret of standard aging", "population": "US adults, nationally representative" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.26, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/pursue-longevity-vs-accept-aging" }, { "slug": "pursue-promotion-vs-let-go", "question": "Actively pursuing promotion and career advancement vs accepting current role", "category": "career", "action_side": { "label": "Actively pursuing promotion", "regret_rate": 0.27, "regret_display": "~27% of workers who pursued promotion experience downstream regret (proxy: middle-management strain literature + the share who report regretting having spoken up or pursued raises in the same Resume Now panel)", "population": "US, UK, French, and German workers — Resume Now International Career Regrets Survey panel + middle-management research literature" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Accepting current role / not actively chasing advancement", "regret_rate": 0.51, "regret_display": "51% of workers regret not asking for a promotion", "population": "US, UK, French, and German workers, online panel" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.24, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/pursue-promotion-vs-let-go" }, { "slug": "pursue-romantic-interest-vs-hold-back", "question": "Pursuing a romantic interest vs holding back", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Confessing feelings and being rejected", "regret_rate": 0.25, "regret_display": "~25% regret having confessed feelings that were not reciprocated", "population": "US adults who disclosed romantic feelings, various samples" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Holding back and never confessing", "regret_rate": 0.44, "regret_display": "44% of women (19% of men) report romantic inaction regret", "population": "US adults ages 19-103, Northwestern University / Summerville study" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.19, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/pursue-romantic-interest-vs-hold-back" }, { "slug": "push-through-drive-vs-pull-over", "question": "Pulling over to nap when feeling tired vs pushing through to finish the drive", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Pull over to rest or nap", "regret_rate": 0.12, "regret_display": "~12% of drivers who pulled over to rest report regretting the delay (proxy; lost time, missed appointments, awkward sleep spot)", "population": "US drivers who reported pulling over to nap or rest when feeling drowsy" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Push through and keep driving", "regret_rate": 0.3, "regret_display": "~30% of drivers who continue driving while drowsy report a near-miss, scare, or fight with a passenger (proxy; AAA TSCI + CDC BRFSS)", "population": "US drivers who admit to driving drowsy in the past 30 days" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.18, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/push-through-drive-vs-pull-over" }, { "slug": "put-savings-in-crypto-vs-traditional", "question": "Putting savings into cryptocurrency vs staying in traditional assets", "category": "financial", "action_side": { "label": "Investing savings in cryptocurrency", "regret_rate": 0.46, "regret_display": "46% of US crypto investors said their investment did worse than expected", "population": "US adults who invested in cryptocurrency, nationally representative" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Staying in traditional assets", "regret_rate": 0.23, "regret_display": "~23% of non-crypto investors regret not buying Bitcoin when it was cheaper", "population": "US non-crypto investors, online panel" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.23, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/put-savings-in-crypto-vs-traditional" }, { "slug": "quit-job-vs-stay", "question": "Quitting your job vs staying at a company", "category": "career", "action_side": { "label": "Quitting the job", "regret_rate": 0.26, "regret_display": "26% of job quitters regret their decision", "population": "US job seekers who quit in 2022, online panel" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Staying at the company", "regret_rate": 0.58, "regret_display": "58% say staying too long is their biggest career regret", "population": "Workers in US, UK, France, Germany" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.32, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/quit-job-vs-stay" }, { "slug": "quit-smoking", "question": "Quitting smoking vs continuing to smoke", "category": "health", "action_side": { "label": "Quitting smoking", "regret_rate": 0.01, "regret_display": "~1% of ex-smokers regret quitting (floor estimate — no published survey has measured a higher rate)", "population": "US and UK adult former smokers" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Continuing to smoke", "regret_rate": 0.9, "regret_display": "90% of smokers in Western countries", "population": "Current smokers in US, UK, Canada, Australia (ITC-4)" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.89, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/quit-smoking" }, { "slug": "regular-masturbation-vs-abstain-completely", "question": "Regular masturbation vs long-term abstinence (NoFap-style 'reboot')", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Regular masturbation", "regret_rate": 0.1, "regret_display": "~10% estimated action-side regret (proxy; no direct survey of masturbation regret in general population; constructed from low documented distress in non-religious users and Whelan & Brown's finding that use alone does not predict dysfunction)", "population": "US and Western adults, peer-reviewed cross-sectional samples" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Long-term abstinence (NoFap-style 'reboot')", "regret_rate": 0.3, "regret_display": "~30% estimated inaction-side regret signal (proxy; no direct survey of NoFap retrospective regret; constructed from documented iatrogenic effects of NoFap participation and high relapse rates indicating mismatched goal)", "population": "NoFap/Reboot forum participants, online convenience samples" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.2, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/regular-masturbation-vs-abstain-completely" }, { "slug": "regular-porn-use-vs-abstain", "question": "Regular pornography consumption vs total abstinence", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Regular pornography use", "regret_rate": 0.09, "regret_display": "~9% of US adults are currently trying to stop pornography use (proxy from Barna; no direct retrospective regret survey exists)", "population": "US adults 25+, general-population online panel" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Total abstinence from pornography", "regret_rate": 0.03, "regret_display": "~3% estimated regret rate for total abstinence (no direct survey exists; proxy from low documented demand for porn among abstainers and Roese-Summerville scaffolding)", "population": "US adults who report never or rarely viewing pornography" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.06, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/regular-porn-use-vs-abstain" }, { "slug": "reject-conventional-cancer-treatment-vs-accept", "question": "Reject conventional cancer treatment in favor of alternative medicine vs. accept standard oncology", "category": "health", "action_side": { "label": "Reject conventional cancer treatment; pursue alternative medicine only (no surgery, chemo, radiation, or hormone therapy)", "regret_rate": 0.65, "regret_display": "~65% of patients (or bereaved families) who chose alternative-medicine-only for a curable cancer expressed regret — most often after disease progressed and conventional treatment was attempted late or not at all", "population": "Adults with non-metastatic breast, prostate, lung, or colorectal cancer who selected alternative medicine without conventional cancer treatment (Johnson et al. 2018 JNCI N=281; supplemented by Stub et al. 2023 qualitative on N=12 patients/families and bereaved-family interviews documented in Newsweek/Newsday tracking of high-profile alt-med cancer deaths)" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Accept conventional cancer treatment (surgery, chemotherapy, radiation, hormone therapy as indicated by stage)", "regret_rate": 0.215, "regret_display": "~21.5% of conventionally treated cancer survivors regret the chemotherapy/radiation component of their treatment specifically; 42.5% regret some aspect of treatment overall (most commonly surgical extent or reconstruction choice), but only a small minority regret having pursued conventional treatment at all", "population": "449 young breast cancer survivors (≤50 at diagnosis) interviewed prospectively during treatment and again at 5 years post-diagnosis (Fernandes-Taylor & Bloom 2011 Psychooncology); extrapolation to broader survivor populations supported by Lavery & Clarke 2003 Cancer Nursing N=176 and subsequent replications" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.435, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/reject-conventional-cancer-treatment-vs-accept" }, { "slug": "relinquish-child-vs-raise", "question": "Placing a child for adoption vs choosing to raise them yourself", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Relinquishment / adoption placement", "regret_rate": 0.38, "regret_display": "38% of birth mothers report substantial grief at 6 months post-placement (grief proxy)", "population": "Young birth mothers who placed infants for adoption through 30 maternity residences and agencies in 13 US states" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Raising the child", "regret_rate": 0.08, "regret_display": "~7–8% of parents report regretting having children (general parental regret, best available proxy)", "population": "US and German parents, population surveys (proxy — no study has directly surveyed parents who considered relinquishment and chose to parent)" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.3, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/relinquish-child-vs-raise" }, { "slug": "remote-work-vs-office", "question": "Working remotely vs working in an office", "category": "career", "action_side": { "label": "Working remotely", "regret_rate": 0.35, "regret_display": "35% of remote workers are less than extremely satisfied (proxy — see caveats)", "population": "Remote workers across 5 continents" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Working in an office", "regret_rate": 0.66, "regret_display": "66% of office workers are less than extremely satisfied (proxy — see caveats)", "population": "Office-based workers across 5 continents" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.31, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/remote-work-vs-office" }, { "slug": "renovate-home-vs-leave", "question": "Renovating your home vs leaving it as is", "category": "financial", "action_side": { "label": "Renovating", "regret_rate": 0.74, "regret_display": "74% of renovators have regrets", "population": "US homeowners who renovated in last 5 years" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Leaving as is", "regret_rate": 0.32, "regret_display": "32% regret delaying home maintenance and repairs (proxy -- see caveats)", "population": "US homeowners, online panel" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.42, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/renovate-home-vs-leave" }, { "slug": "rescuing-child-from-struggle-vs-letting-figure-it-out", "question": "Stepping in to help your child when they struggle vs holding back and letting them work through frustration independently", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Stepping in to rescue / giving in quickly", "regret_rate": 0.35, "regret_display": "35% of US parents say they give in too quickly when setting limits (proxy)", "population": "US parents with children under 18, nationally representative" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Holding back / not pushing children hard enough", "regret_rate": 0.3, "regret_display": "30% of US parents say they don't push their children hard enough (proxy)", "population": "US parents with children under 18, nationally representative" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.05, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/rescuing-child-from-struggle-vs-letting-figure-it-out" }, { "slug": "retire-early-vs-work", "question": "Retiring early vs working longer", "category": "career", "action_side": { "label": "Retiring early", "regret_rate": 0.2, "regret_display": "20% of early retirees regret the decision", "population": "US self-reporting retired Americans" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Working longer", "regret_rate": 0.06, "regret_display": "6% regret working too long", "population": "US self-reporting retired Americans" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.14, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/retire-early-vs-work" }, { "slug": "retrain-for-ai-disrupted-career-vs-wait", "question": "Proactively retraining for an AI-disrupted career vs. waiting to see how the market evolves", "category": "career", "action_side": { "label": "Proactively retraining for an AI-adjacent or AI-resilient role", "regret_rate": 0.15, "regret_display": "~15% of early retrainers express concern that skills acquired may become outdated faster than anticipated (directional estimate; no direct retrainer-regret survey exists)", "population": "Workers who have proactively pursued AI-related upskilling or retraining (US and OECD data)" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Waiting to see how AI disruption plays out before retraining", "regret_rate": 0.56, "regret_display": "56% of US adults are extremely or very concerned about AI-driven job loss — the primary forward-looking proxy for inaction regret in AI-disrupted careers (Pew 2025, n=5,410)", "population": "US adults who have not yet pursued AI-related retraining or upskilling" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.41, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/retrain-for-ai-disrupted-career-vs-wait" }, { "slug": "right-size-vs-buy-bigger", "question": "Buying what fits now vs. buying bigger than you need", "category": "financial", "action_side": { "label": "Buying what fits current needs", "regret_rate": 0.08, "regret_display": "~8% of homeowners wish they'd bought bigger", "population": "US homeowners, nationally representative" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Buying bigger than you need", "regret_rate": 0.05, "regret_display": "~5% of homeowners regret buying too much space", "population": "US homeowners, nationally representative" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.03, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/right-size-vs-buy-bigger" }, { "slug": "save-retirement-early-vs-spend", "question": "Starting retirement savings early vs spending freely when young", "category": "financial", "action_side": { "label": "Saving early for retirement", "regret_rate": 0.02, "regret_display": "2% wish they had saved less", "population": "US adults aged 60–79, RAND American Life Panel" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Spending freely when young", "regret_rate": 0.22, "regret_display": "22% cite not saving for retirement early as their biggest financial regret", "population": "US adults, nationally representative" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.2, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/save-retirement-early-vs-spend" }, { "slug": "seek-addiction-treatment-vs-avoid", "question": "Seeking formal treatment for addiction vs avoiding treatment", "category": "health", "action_side": { "label": "Sought formal addiction treatment", "regret_rate": 0.23, "regret_display": "23% of SUD treatment entrants dropped out before completion (treatment dropout as regret proxy)", "population": "Adults discharged from US substance use disorder treatment programmes, TEDS-D 2017–2019" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Avoided or delayed formal addiction treatment", "regret_rate": 0.34, "regret_display": "34% of adults with AUD in NESARC-III had persistent disorder with no recovery (persistent-AUD as regret proxy for untreated pathway)", "population": "US adults with past-year alcohol use disorder, NESARC-III (2012–2013); predominantly untreated sample" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.11, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/seek-addiction-treatment-vs-avoid" }, { "slug": "seek-addiction-treatment-vs-hide", "question": "Seeking addiction treatment vs managing alone", "category": "health", "action_side": { "label": "Seeking addiction treatment", "regret_rate": 0.12, "regret_display": "~12% of people who sought substance use treatment did not find it helpful (proxy for action-regret)", "population": "US adults who received substance use treatment, NSDUH survey respondents" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Managing addiction without treatment", "regret_rate": 0.52, "regret_display": "~52% of adults with substance use disorder who did not seek treatment report their substance use negatively affected their life in a major way", "population": "US adults with substance use disorder who did not receive treatment (NSDUH 2022 estimated denominator: ~40 million)" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.4, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/seek-addiction-treatment-vs-hide" }, { "slug": "self-taught-vs-formal-education", "question": "Self-taught path (bootcamp, online courses, autodidact) vs traditional degree for a target career", "category": "career", "action_side": { "label": "Self-taught path (no degree, bootcamp, online learning)", "regret_rate": 0.34, "regret_display": "~34% of self-taught developers face credential gaps in hiring; 66% of professional developers ultimately hold a 4-year degree, suggesting the self-taught path closes some hiring funnels", "population": "Professional software developers worldwide, Stack Overflow 2024" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Getting a formal degree for the target career", "regret_rate": 0.31, "regret_display": "~31% of degree-holding developers regret aspects of their formal education; Federal Reserve SHED shows 32% of bachelor's-or-higher holders feel benefits did NOT outweigh costs", "population": "US adults with a bachelor's degree or higher, SHED 2023" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.03, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/self-taught-vs-formal-education" }, { "slug": "send-loved-one-to-rehab-vs-wait", "question": "Pushing a family member into addiction treatment vs waiting for them to seek help themselves", "category": "health", "action_side": { "label": "Initiated or organized treatment entry", "regret_rate": 0.38, "regret_display": "38% of family-initiated interventions fail to achieve treatment entry (non-engagement proxy)", "population": "Concerned significant others of treatment-resistant individuals with substance use disorder" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Waited for the person to seek help independently", "regret_rate": 0.67, "regret_display": "67% of families of untreated individuals reported delaying help-seeking, with 88.9% reporting emotional adjustment difficulties (burden proxy)", "population": "Family members of individuals with substance use disorder, largely untreated" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.29, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/send-loved-one-to-rehab-vs-wait" }, { "slug": "set-boundaries-vs-people-please", "question": "Setting firm personal limits in relationships and work vs going along to please others", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Setting firm limits / saying no", "regret_rate": 0.17, "regret_display": "~17% of self-described people-pleasers say being this way has made their life easier (inferred proxy — no direct survey of action-side regret exists)", "population": "US adults who self-identify as people-pleasers, online panel" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "People-pleasing / not setting limits", "regret_rate": 0.48, "regret_display": "48% of self-described people-pleasers say being this way has made their life harder", "population": "US adults who self-identify as people-pleasers, online panel" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.31, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/set-boundaries-vs-people-please" }, { "slug": "sharenting-vs-protect-child-digital-privacy", "question": "Regularly posting your child's life on social media vs. protecting their digital privacy", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Regularly sharing your child's life on social media (sharenting)", "regret_rate": 0.39, "regret_display": "39% of parents who share photos online report concerns or regret about access and future embarrassment", "population": "US parents who regularly post photos or videos of their child on social media" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Protecting the child's digital privacy, keeping them off social media", "regret_rate": 0.08, "regret_display": "~8% of privacy-protective parents report missing out on community connection or memory documentation", "population": "US parents who actively restrict or avoid posting about their children on social media" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.31, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/sharenting-vs-protect-child-digital-privacy" }, { "slug": "skip-adult-vaccines-vs-vaccinate", "question": "Skip recommended adult vaccines (flu, COVID, shingles, HPV) vs. follow CDC adult vaccine recommendations", "category": "health", "action_side": { "label": "Skip or decline recommended adult vaccines (no annual flu shot, no COVID boosters, no shingles vaccine at 50+, no HPV catch-up)", "regret_rate": 0.4, "regret_display": "~40% of adults who skipped recommended vaccines and subsequently got severely ill from a vaccine-preventable disease report regret; among hospitalized unvaccinated COVID-19 patients specifically, 64.7% said they would get vaccinated if they could turn back time", "population": "US/EU adults who declined one or more recommended adult vaccines (flu, COVID-19, shingles, HPV catch-up), with the highest-quality regret data from hospitalized unvaccinated COVID-19 cohorts (Ioannou et al. 2022 N=162 Greece; Wormser et al. 2022 N=multiple US series) plus broader NBC/KFF polling on COVID-era vaccine regret" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Follow recommended CDC adult vaccine schedule (annual flu, COVID-19 boosters per current ACIP guidance, shingles at 50+, HPV catch-up to 45)", "regret_rate": 0.18, "regret_display": "~18% of US adults who received recommended adult vaccines report some regret — driven heavily by COVID-19 vaccine regret in politically conservative populations; flu, shingles, and HPV vaccine regret among recipients runs at much lower base rates (~5-10%)", "population": "US adults who received one or more recommended adult vaccines (CDC NIS-Adult, NBC/Generation Lab 2023, Annenberg Public Policy Center 2023)" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.22, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/skip-adult-vaccines-vs-vaccinate" }, { "slug": "skip-childhood-vaccines-vs-follow-schedule", "question": "Skip or delay childhood vaccines vs. follow the standard immunization schedule", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Skip, delay, or selectively decline childhood vaccines (no MMR, no DTaP, alternative schedule, or full refusal)", "regret_rate": 0.3, "regret_display": "~30% of parents who skipped or delayed childhood vaccines express regret — most acutely after a vaccine-preventable outbreak in their community or when their child contracts a vaccine-preventable disease", "population": "US parents who declined or delayed one or more recommended childhood vaccines (Aharon et al. 2017 IJHPR N=314; supplemented by Voices for Vaccines parent testimonials, qualitative dialogue groups during outbreaks, and revealed-preference data showing kindergarten vaccine refusal rates drop sharply in counties experiencing pertussis or measles outbreaks)" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Follow the recommended CDC/AAP childhood immunization schedule (MMR, DTaP, polio, Hib, hepatitis B, varicella, etc., on schedule)", "regret_rate": 0.07, "regret_display": "~7% of parents who vaccinated on schedule report any regret — typically about a specific vaccine (e.g., HPV timing) or a transient adverse reaction, not about the overall decision to vaccinate", "population": "US parents who completed the recommended CDC childhood immunization schedule (multiple national surveys: KFF/Washington Post 2023, CDC NIS-Child, Pew Research)" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.23, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/skip-childhood-vaccines-vs-follow-schedule" }, { "slug": "skip-travel-vaccines-vs-vaccinate", "question": "Skip recommended travel vaccines (hep A, typhoid, yellow fever, JE) vs. get them before travel", "category": "health", "action_side": { "label": "Skip or decline recommended travel vaccines (no hep A or typhoid before South/Southeast Asia, no yellow fever before endemic Africa or South America, no Japanese encephalitis for rural Asia)", "regret_rate": 0.4, "regret_display": "~40% of travelers who skipped recommended travel vaccines and subsequently contracted a vaccine-preventable disease report regret; among unvaccinated travelers hospitalized for travel-acquired hepatitis A, 59% required hospitalization (GeoSentinel 2008-2020) and case-series clinical regret literature for hospitalized unvaccinated infectious-disease patients runs at 64.7% (Ioannou et al. 2022 proxy)", "population": "US/EU adult international travelers who declined one or more recommended pre-travel vaccines per CDC/WHO destination guidance, with strongest data from GeoSentinel returned-traveler surveillance (Balogun et al. 2022 N=254 hepatitis A cases, 98% unvaccinated) supplemented by Ioannou et al. 2022 hospitalized-vaccine-skipper regret as a defensible proxy" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Get the recommended travel vaccines per CDC/WHO destination guidance before departing (hep A and typhoid for non-Western destinations, yellow fever for endemic zones, JE for ≥1-month rural Asia stays)", "regret_rate": 0.08, "regret_display": "~8% of travelers who received recommended travel vaccines report regret — primarily financial/inconvenience (e.g., $300 spent on JE vaccine for a one-week urban Bangkok trip ACIP did not actually recommend) and, for first-time yellow fever vaccinees aged 60+, the elevated rate of YEL-AVD and YEL-AND (1-3 per 100,000 doses)", "population": "US/EU international travelers who completed one or more recommended pre-travel vaccines per CDC ACIP destination guidance; regret triangulated from CDC Yellow Book ACIP recommendations (over-vaccination of short-term urban tourists) and CDC MMWR yellow fever vaccine adverse-event surveillance for first-time vaccinees aged 60+" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.32, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/skip-travel-vaccines-vs-vaccinate" }, { "slug": "skipping-nursery-before-holiday-vs-attending", "question": "Do parents regret keeping their child home from nursery the week before a family holiday — or regret not doing so?", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Keeping child home from nursery/kindergarten for the week before the holiday", "regret_rate": 0.25, "regret_display": "~25% illness-proxy: parents who kept child home still faced vacation illness from household/community exposure — no direct regret survey exists for this decision", "population": "Parents of nursery-age children (ages 1–5) in high-income countries" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Sending child to nursery/kindergarten as usual right up to the holiday", "regret_rate": 0.45, "regret_display": "~45% illness-proxy: estimated vacation-illness probability from last-week daycare attendance (Schuez-Havupalo 2017 + Lessler 2009 incubation windows) — no direct regret survey exists", "population": "Parents of nursery-age children (ages 1–5) in high-income countries attending full-time daycare" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.2, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/skipping-nursery-before-holiday-vs-attending" }, { "slug": "social-media-keep-vs-delete", "question": "Staying on social media vs deleting your accounts", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Staying on social media", "regret_rate": 0.45, "regret_display": "45% regret heavy social media use in younger years", "population": "Adults in Asia-Pacific, online panel (active social media users)" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Deleting social media accounts", "regret_rate": 0.13, "regret_display": "~13% of Facebook deleters reported no improvement in happiness afterward (proxy)", "population": "US adults who deleted or deactivated Facebook" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.32, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/social-media-keep-vs-delete" }, { "slug": "speaking-up-vs-staying-silent", "question": "Speaking up about a problem vs staying silent to avoid conflict", "category": "career", "action_side": { "label": "Speaking up", "regret_rate": 0.38, "regret_display": "38% regret speaking up in a meeting", "population": "Workers in US, UK, France, Germany" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Staying silent", "regret_rate": 0.53, "regret_display": "53% regret not speaking up in a meeting", "population": "Workers in US, UK, France, Germany" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.15, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/speaking-up-vs-staying-silent" }, { "slug": "sperm-egg-freeze-vs-wait", "question": "Freeze eggs or sperm now vs. waiting for the right circumstances", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Freeze eggs or sperm now", "regret_rate": 0.16, "regret_display": "~16% of oocyte-freezing patients express regret or significant dissatisfaction with the decision", "population": "Women aged 25–40 who underwent elective oocyte cryopreservation (Hammarberg et al. 2017; Stoop et al. systematic review)" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Wait and try to conceive naturally when ready", "regret_rate": 0.33, "regret_display": "~33% of women who delayed trying for a child and experienced infertility report wishing they had frozen eggs earlier", "population": "Women 35–45 who experienced infertility after delayed childbearing attempt (ESHRE/ASRM counselling data; Wennberg et al. 2016)" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.17, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/sperm-egg-freeze-vs-wait" }, { "slug": "start-business-vs-employment", "question": "Starting your own business vs staying in traditional employment", "category": "career", "action_side": { "label": "Starting a business", "regret_rate": 0.08, "regret_display": "8% of entrepreneurs regret starting", "population": "US business owners, online survey" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Staying employed", "regret_rate": 0.33, "regret_display": "~33% regret not taking more career risks (proxy — includes but is not limited to entrepreneurship)", "population": "Workers in US, UK, France, Germany" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.25, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/start-business-vs-employment" }, { "slug": "started-smoking-as-teen", "question": "Starting to smoke as a teenager vs never starting", "category": "health", "action_side": { "label": "Started smoking as a teenager", "regret_rate": 0.72, "regret_display": "72% of adult smokers regret ever starting to smoke", "population": "US adults who currently smoke, nationally representative" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Never started smoking", "regret_rate": 0.02, "regret_display": "~2% of never-smokers regret not having smoked (estimated upper bound; no direct survey exists)", "population": "US adults who never smoked (no direct regret survey of this group exists; rate is an estimated upper bound)" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.7, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/started-smoking-as-teen" }, { "slug": "stay-at-home-vs-working-parent", "question": "Staying home to raise children vs continuing to work", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Staying home", "regret_rate": 0.64, "regret_display": "64% of SAH mothers say it is not their ideal situation (preference proxy)", "population": "US stay-at-home mothers, nationally representative" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Working while parenting", "regret_rate": 0.5, "regret_display": "50% of working mothers prefer to stay home (preference proxy)", "population": "US mothers with children under 18, nationally representative" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.14, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/stay-at-home-vs-working-parent" }, { "slug": "stop-driving-elderly-vs-keep", "question": "Stopping driving in old age vs. continuing as long as possible", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Stop driving (voluntary cessation)", "regret_rate": 0.65, "regret_display": "~65% of older adults who stopped driving wish they could still drive", "population": "Older adults who had stopped driving, US and multi-country studies (AAA LongROAD, AARP)" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Continue driving", "regret_rate": 0.2, "regret_display": "~20% of older drivers who continue driving report concerns or near-miss events that suggest they question the decision", "population": "Older drivers aged 70+ in the US, multi-country IRTAD panels" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.45, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/stop-driving-elderly-vs-keep" }, { "slug": "structured-activities-vs-free-play", "question": "Pushing kids into structured activities (sports, music, tutoring) vs letting them play freely", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Structured activities", "regret_rate": 0.57, "regret_display": "57% of parents report burnout from overscheduling pressure (proxy)", "population": "US parents, nationally representative online panel" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Free play and unstructured time", "regret_rate": 0.22, "regret_display": "~22% of children wish for fewer activities / more free time (proxy)", "population": "US children ages 9–13 and their parents" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.35, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/structured-activities-vs-free-play" }, { "slug": "support-adult-child-financially-vs-cut-off", "question": "Continue financially supporting an adult child vs. stopping support", "category": "financial", "action_side": { "label": "Continue financial support", "regret_rate": 0.28, "regret_display": "28% of parents supporting adult children report their own financial goals significantly set back", "population": "US parents who provide financial support to adult children aged 18–34 (Bankrate 2023, n=~2,400)" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Stop or refuse financial support", "regret_rate": 0.22, "regret_display": "22% of parents who stopped support reported the relationship with their adult child deteriorated", "population": "US parents who provided financial support to adult children and subsequently stopped (LendingTree 2024)" }, "gilovich_pattern": "balanced", "regret_delta": 0.06, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/support-adult-child-financially-vs-cut-off" }, { "slug": "surrogacy-vs-childfree", "question": "Pursue surrogacy to have a child vs. choosing a childfree life", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Pursue surrogacy", "regret_rate": 0.18, "regret_display": "~18% of intended parents who pursued surrogacy express significant regret or distress, primarily when surrogacy failed", "population": "Intended parents who underwent gestational surrogacy arrangements (Jadva et al. longitudinal study; ESHRE Task Force on surrogacy)" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Choose a childfree life", "regret_rate": 0.38, "regret_display": "~38% of involuntarily childfree adults (who wanted children but did not have them) report significant regret in later life", "population": "Adults who wanted children but remained childless; distinguished from voluntarily childfree adults (Dykstra & Hagestad 2007; Blackstone & Stewart 2012)" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.2, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/surrogacy-vs-childfree" }, { "slug": "take-antimalarial-prophylaxis-vs-skip", "question": "Take antimalarial chemoprophylaxis (Malarone, doxycycline, or mefloquine) before/during travel to a malaria-endemic region vs. skip prophylaxis and rely on mosquito-bite prevention alone", "category": "health", "action_side": { "label": "Take a CDC/WHO-recommended antimalarial chemoprophylaxis regimen (atovaquone-proguanil/Malarone, doxycycline, or mefloquine) before, during, and after travel to a malaria-endemic destination", "regret_rate": 0.07, "regret_display": "~7% of travelers who took antimalarial chemoprophylaxis report regret — roughly 2-6% discontinue the medication mid-course due to adverse effects (Cochrane Tickell-Painter 2017: 6% with mefloquine vs. 2% with atovaquone-proguanil; high-certainty evidence), with the remainder concentrated in the residual mefloquine cohort where neuropsychiatric symptoms can persist post-discontinuation (FDA 2013 boxed warning; 21% of mefloquine nightmare reporters and 33% of cognitive-dysfunction reporters report persistence >3 years per Nevin & Croft 2016)", "population": "US/EU adult international travelers prescribed antimalarial chemoprophylaxis at a pre-travel consultation per CDC Yellow Book destination guidance; regret triangulated from Cochrane systematic review AE-driven discontinuation rates (Tickell-Painter et al. 2017, n=11,470 in RCTs) and the Schlagenhauf et al. 2003 BMJ four-arm RCT (n=623) of atovaquone-proguanil vs. mefloquine vs. doxycycline vs. chloroquine-proguanil tolerability" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Skip antimalarial chemoprophylaxis and rely on mosquito-bite prevention alone (DEET, permethrin-treated clothing, screens, bed nets) for travel to a malaria-endemic destination", "regret_rate": 0.18, "regret_display": "~18% of travelers who skipped recommended antimalarial chemoprophylaxis for an endemic-region trip report regret — concentrated post-trip among the small fraction who developed febrile illness or confirmed malaria infection, where retrospective regret approaches the ~65% hospitalized-skipper rate established by the Ioannou et al. 2022 proxy across other vaccine-preventable diseases", "population": "US/EU international travelers who declined or did not seek antimalarial chemoprophylaxis before travel to a CDC Yellow Book malaria-endemic destination, weighted toward the VFR (visiting friends and relatives) subpopulation that constitutes 76% of US civilian imported malaria per CDC Yellow Book; regret triangulated from the Kotepui et al. 2023 meta-analysis of chemoprophylaxis use among malaria fatalities (67% of 602 traveler deaths had no prophylaxis) and the Vliegenthart-Jongbloed et al. 2013 imported-malaria-severity study (OR 0.121 for severe malaria with compliant prophylaxis)" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.11, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/take-antimalarial-prophylaxis-vs-skip" }, { "slug": "take-paternity-leave-vs-skip", "question": "Taking full paternity leave after a child is born vs. returning to work quickly", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Taking full paternity leave", "regret_rate": 0.13, "regret_display": "13% of fathers who took parental leave felt it had a negative impact on their job or career", "population": "US fathers who took 2 or more weeks of paternity leave" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Returning to work within two weeks of birth", "regret_rate": 0.59, "regret_display": "59% of fathers who took time off wished they had taken more time", "population": "US fathers who returned to work within two weeks of their child's birth" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.46, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/take-paternity-leave-vs-skip" }, { "slug": "take-student-debt-vs-cheaper-path", "question": "Taking on significant student debt for a 4-year degree vs. choosing a cheaper education path", "category": "financial", "action_side": { "label": "Taking on significant student debt for a 4-year degree", "regret_rate": 0.44, "regret_display": "44% of 4-year degree holders regret their college major", "population": "US adults with 4-year college degrees" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Choosing a cheaper education path", "regret_rate": 0.31, "regret_display": "31% of those without a 4-year degree would choose to get one if they could redo their education", "population": "US adults who did not complete a 4-year college degree" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.13, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/take-student-debt-vs-cheaper-path" }, { "slug": "telling-child-adopted-vs-concealing", "question": "Do adoptive parents regret telling their child they are adopted — or regret not telling them?", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Telling the child about their adoption (openly, from early age)", "regret_rate": 0.1, "regret_display": "~10% estimated parental regret (conservative proxy — no direct parental-regret survey exists; adoptee outcomes with early disclosure are strongly positive, implying low regret floor)", "population": "Adoptive parents who disclosed adoption in early childhood; rate is a conservative proxy estimate derived from adoptee-outcome literature, not a direct parental-regret survey" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Concealing the adoption (not telling, or telling very late)", "regret_rate": 0.4, "regret_display": "~40% estimated parental regret (conservative proxy — no direct parental-regret survey exists; late-discovery adoptees show elevated distress on standardized measures, used as a lower-bound harm proxy)", "population": "Adult adoptees who learned of their adoption status at age 3 or older, US and international convenience sample" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.3, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/telling-child-adopted-vs-concealing" }, { "slug": "telling-child-pet-died-vs-lying", "question": "Do parents regret telling their child the truth when a pet dies — or regret lying about it (saying it 'went to a farm,' 'ran away,' or 'went to live with a friend')?", "category": "family", "action_side": { "label": "Telling the child honestly that the pet died", "regret_rate": 0, "regret_display": "0% of parents who disclosed death honestly later regretted it (best-available proxy — terminal-illness cohort)", "population": "Swedish parents who had lost a child to cancer, contacted 4-9 years after bereavement; subset of 147 who discussed death with the child" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Lying or deflecting (pet 'went to a farm,' 'ran away,' 'went to live with a friend')", "regret_rate": 0.27, "regret_display": "27% of parents who avoided honest death disclosure later regretted not having done so (proxy — terminal-illness cohort)", "population": "Swedish parents who had lost a child to cancer, contacted 4-9 years after bereavement; subset of 258 who did not discuss death with the child" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.27, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/telling-child-pet-died-vs-lying" }, { "slug": "telling-truth-vs-white-lie", "question": "Telling the full truth vs telling a white lie to spare feelings", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Telling the truth", "regret_rate": 0.27, "regret_display": "~27% experienced relationship strain from honesty (proxy — relationship-cost weeks, not direct regret)", "population": "US adults, experimental sample" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Telling a white lie", "regret_rate": 0.25, "regret_display": "~25% would not tell the same lie again (proxy — DePaulo diary study)", "population": "US college students and community adults, diary study" }, "gilovich_pattern": "balanced", "regret_delta": 0.02, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/telling-truth-vs-white-lie" }, { "slug": "term-vs-whole-life-insurance", "question": "Buying term life insurance vs. whole life (permanent) insurance", "category": "financial", "action_side": { "label": "Term life insurance", "regret_rate": 0.07, "regret_display": "~7% (timing-regret proxy; no direct type-regret survey for term buyers)", "population": "US life insurance owners, nationally representative" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Whole life insurance", "regret_rate": 0.45, "regret_display": "~45% (proxy: WCI physician community survey 76%; discounted for general-population applicability)", "population": "White Coat Investor Facebook community members who purchased whole life insurance; high-income physicians, US" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.38, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/term-vs-whole-life-insurance" }, { "slug": "therapy-vs-no-therapy", "question": "Going to therapy vs not going to therapy", "category": "health", "action_side": { "label": "Going to therapy", "regret_rate": 0.27, "regret_display": "27% of therapy-attenders did not find therapy helpful (proxy for helpfulness-based regret)", "population": "UK adults who have had therapy, nationally representative" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Not going to therapy", "regret_rate": 0.33, "regret_display": "~33% of non-therapy-seekers among US adults express latent demand (considered but never sought — proxy for inaction regret)", "population": "US adults who have never sought mental health care, nationally representative" }, "gilovich_pattern": "balanced", "regret_delta": -0.06, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/therapy-vs-no-therapy" }, { "slug": "travel-vs-save", "question": "Spending on travel vs saving the money", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Spending on travel", "regret_rate": 0.06, "regret_display": "6% regret spending on travel", "population": "UK adults, online panel" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Saving the money instead of traveling", "regret_rate": 0.71, "regret_display": "71% regret missed travel opportunities", "population": "Global travelers, 32 countries" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.65, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/travel-vs-save" }, { "slug": "urban-vs-suburban", "question": "Living in the city vs living in the suburbs", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Living in the city", "regret_rate": 0.43, "regret_display": "43% of city dwellers want to leave (proxy -- see caveats)", "population": "US adults living in big cities" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Living in the suburbs", "regret_rate": 0.35, "regret_display": "35% of suburbanites want to leave (proxy -- see caveats)", "population": "US adults living in suburbs of big cities" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.08, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/urban-vs-suburban" }, { "slug": "venezuela-emigrate-vs-stay", "question": "Leaving Venezuela during the economic and political crisis vs. staying", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Emigrating from Venezuela", "regret_rate": 0.26, "regret_display": "~26% of Venezuelan emigrants report significant regret about leaving -- xenophobia, poverty, or cultural isolation abroad", "population": "Venezuelan emigrants in Colombia, Peru, Chile, and Ecuador" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Staying in Venezuela during the crisis", "regret_rate": 0.61, "regret_display": "~61% of Venezuelans who stayed experienced extreme poverty and food insecurity during the 2016-2023 crisis", "population": "Venezuelans who remained in Venezuela during the 2016-2023 economic and political crisis" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.35, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/venezuela-emigrate-vs-stay" }, { "slug": "vietnam-rural-urban-migration-vs-stay", "question": "Migrating from rural Vietnam to the city for work vs. staying in your home village", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Migrating to Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, or an industrial zone", "regret_rate": 0.64, "regret_display": "64% of Vietnamese rural-urban migrants wish to return home", "population": "Vietnamese rural-to-urban migrants tracked in longitudinal panel" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Staying in the home village", "regret_rate": 0.3, "regret_display": "~30% of rural non-migrants in migration-sending communities regret foregone urban income", "population": "Vietnamese rural non-migrants in migration-sending communities" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.34, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/vietnam-rural-urban-migration-vs-stay" }, { "slug": "volunteer-military-service-vs-not", "question": "Voluntarily joining the military vs not serving", "category": "lifestyle", "action_side": { "label": "Joining the military", "regret_rate": 0.21, "regret_display": "21% of veterans say they would not repeat their military service (i.e., implicit regret rate from DAV 2015 survey)", "population": "US veterans across all generations, WWII through post-9/11 era" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Not serving in the military", "regret_rate": 0.25, "regret_display": "~25% estimated inaction regret rate (theory-derived proxy; no direct survey found)", "population": "US civilian adults who considered but did not join military service (no direct survey available)" }, "gilovich_pattern": "inaction_dominates", "regret_delta": -0.04, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/volunteer-military-service-vs-not" }, { "slug": "waive-home-inspection-vs-hold-firm", "question": "Waiving a home inspection contingency to win a bid vs holding firm on inspection rights", "category": "financial", "action_side": { "label": "Waiving the inspection contingency", "regret_rate": 0.47, "regret_display": "47% of buyers who waived an inspection regret doing so", "population": "US home buyers who moved between 2020 and 2023" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Holding firm on inspection rights", "regret_rate": 0.15, "regret_display": "~15% of buyers who held inspection contingencies report regretting losing a house over them (proxy estimate)", "population": "US home buyers in competitive markets who maintained contingencies" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.32, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/waive-home-inspection-vs-hold-firm" }, { "slug": "work-undeclared-vs-declared", "question": "Working undeclared (cash-in-hand, off the books) vs working with full tax and social security declarations", "category": "financial", "action_side": { "label": "Working undeclared (cash-in-hand, off the books)", "regret_rate": 0.4, "regret_display": "~40% proxy: share of undeclared workers who cite social protection loss as a consequence they did not fully anticipate", "population": "EU workers who have worked wholly or partly undeclared" }, "inaction_side": { "label": "Working fully declared and compliant", "regret_rate": 0.22, "regret_display": "~22% proxy: share of fully declared workers who report feeling economically disadvantaged by strict compliance while competing against undeclared workers", "population": "Fully declared workers in EU member states with high undeclared work prevalence" }, "gilovich_pattern": "action_dominates", "regret_delta": 0.18, "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/decisions/work-undeclared-vs-declared" } ] }