32% of unhappily married adults who stayed married were still unhappy five years later, according to Waite et al.’s 2002 NSFH study — a rate nearly identical to the 30% of divorced adults who report regretting their divorce, anchored by Avvo’s 2016 panel survey (27% women, 32% men) and corroborated by broader estimates reaching one-third to one-half. The gender gap in divorce regret is consistent: men regret divorce more often than women, likely because women initiate roughly two-thirds of divorces and have therefore had more time to process the decision before it becomes final.
The cultural framing heavily favors action: divorce is positioned as liberation, staying as settling. The data complicates this. Waite’s finding that most unhappy marriages self-correct within five years is one of the most robust results in family sociology, replicated across multiple NSFH waves. It does not mean staying is always better — the study excluded abusive marriages, and “happy” was measured by a single survey item. But it does mean the widespread assumption that unhappiness in marriage is permanent is empirically wrong for the majority.
The near-parity between action and inaction regret rates (roughly 30% vs 32%) makes this one of the most balanced entries in the dataset. The delta is within the margin of error for both surveys. The practical implication is that neither path reliably avoids regret — which is itself a useful calibration against the certainty that either side’s advocates tend to project.