Vital Signs: Drowning Death Rates, Self-Reported Swimming Skill, Swimming Lesson Participation, and Recreational Water Exposure — United States, 2019–2023
Cited in 2 Likelier entries (2 risks, 0 decisions).
Used in 2 entries
For each citing entry, the verbatim excerpt and Likelier's calculation notes (how the source's number was converted to the lifetime-probability framing) are shown below. Click through to read the full claim ledger.
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- Statistic
US unintentional drowning death rate 1.2-1.4 per 100,000; ~4,000-4,700 deaths/year 2019-2022
“"Approximately 4,000 persons die from unintentional drowning in the United States each year. Unintentional drowning death rates were significantly higher during 2020, 2021, and 2022 compared with those in 2019."”
Calculation notes
CDC reports a crude unintentional drowning death rate of roughly 1.2-1.4 per 100,000 per year across 2019-2022. Taking ~1.31 per 100,000 as the central estimate and compounding over 59 adult-remaining years gives 1 - (1 - 1.31e-5)^59 ≈ 7.7e-4, or about 1 in 1,300. Adjusted slightly downward to 7.25e-4 (≈ 1 in 1,380) because a material share of the all-ages rate is driven by children 1-4, whose per-year rate is several times the adult baseline and whose deaths are already behind most adult readers.
Independence note: Primary US source, built from NCHS/NVSS death-certificate records (ICD-10 W65-W74 for unintentional drowning). The companion CDC Drowning Facts page draws from the same mortality files; WHO's global figure incorporates US rates through its Global Health Estimates pipeline.
Source date: 2024-05-17 · Accessed: 2026-04-11
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- Statistic
4,067-4,677 unintentional drowning deaths per year in the US (2019-2022); rate 1.2-1.4 per 100,000; ages ≥65 had second-highest rates after children ages 1-4
“"Unintentional drowning death rates were significantly higher during 2020, 2021, and 2022 compared with those in 2019." 2019: 4,067 deaths, 1.2/100,000; 2020: 4,589 deaths, 1.4/100,000; 2021: 4,677 deaths, 1.4/100,000; 2022: 4,509 deaths, 1.3/100,000. "The highest drowning rates were among non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native and non-Hispanic Black or African American persons" and among children aged 1-4 and adults aged ≥65.”
Calculation notes
Used to anchor the comparison_anchors entry for all-cause US drowning lifetime risk and to establish that ages ≥65 are the second-highest drowning risk group, consistent with the Hawaii and DAN snorkeling-death age skew. ~4500 drowning deaths per year × 79-year life expectancy ÷ 333 million US population ≈ 1.07% lifetime; cited as ~0.0012 in the comparison anchors using the conventional published lifetime figure.
Independence note: US government surveillance (NCHS Vital Statistics aggregated by CDC), methodologically independent of the snorkel-specific sources and used only as a comparator for the overall drowning anchor.
Source date: 2024-05-23 · Accessed: 2026-05-23
