Trends of Heat-Related Deaths in the US, 1999-2023
Cited in 2 Likelier entries (2 risks, 0 decisions).
Used in 2 entries
For each citing entry, the verbatim excerpt and Likelier's calculation notes (how the source's number was converted to the lifetime-probability framing) are shown below. Click through to read the full claim ledger.
-
- Statistic
US heat-related deaths (underlying or contributing cause) rose from 1,069 in 1999 to 2,325 in 2023 — a 117% increase in count and a 63% increase in the age-adjusted mortality rate; 21,518 cumulative deaths over 1999-2023, with a 16.8% per-year acceleration from 2016 to 2023.
“"The number of heat-related deaths increased from 1069 (95% CI, 1003-1135) in 1999 to 2325 (95% CI, 2278-2372) in 2023, a 117% increase in the number of heat-related deaths and a 63% increase in the AAMR. ... There were 21 518 heat-related deaths from 1999 to 2023."”
Calculation notes
This is a US, death-certificate (direct-coded, underlying-or-contributing) figure, not a global excess-mortality figure, so it does NOT replace the headline 1-in-330 global lifetime number (which is WHO excess-mortality at global_adult_lifetime scope). It is cited as evidence for two things already embedded in this entry: (1) the rising US trend, now with a hard 117% / 63% magnitude through 2023, and (2) the persistence of the direct-coding undercount relative to excess-mortality estimates. The 2,325 deaths in 2023 also confirm that the older "~700-1,300/year" US direct-coded range in the regional breakdown and caveats is dated; the figure has roughly doubled by 2023.
Independence note: Howard et al. is a primary analysis of CDC WONDER / NCHS death-certificate data — a US direct-coding source, methodologically distinct from the WHO and Zhao et al. global excess-mortality models. It corroborates the trend, not the headline magnitude.
Source date: 2024-08-26 · Accessed: 2026-06-14
-
- Statistic
2,325 heat-related deaths in 2023; age-adjusted mortality rate 0.62 per 100,000 person-years; 117% increase in count from 1999 (1,069) to 2023 (2,325); AAPC +16.8% per year from 2016–2023
“"The number of heat-related deaths increased from 1069 in 1999 to 2325 in 2023, a 117% increase in the number of heat-related deaths and a 63% increase in the age-adjusted mortality rate (AAMR). From 1999 to 2023, a total of 21,518 deaths were recorded as heat-related in the US. The AAMR increased from 0.38 per 100,000 person-years in 1999 to 0.62 per 100,000 person-years in 2023."”
Calculation notes
Primary annual count and AAMR source. 2,325 deaths in 2023 against a US adult population of ~261 million (18+) yields an approximate annual adult hazard of 8.9 per million. Lifetime calculation: 1 − (1 − 8.9e-6)^59 ≈ 0.000525 ≈ 1 in 1,900. The JAMA paper uses NCHS NVSS ICD-10 codes X30 (exposure to excessive natural heat), W92 (exposure to excessive heat of man-made origin), and T67 (effects of heat and light) — the same coding base as the CDC MMWR 2004-2018 report.
Independence note: Ramirez et al. draws directly from CDC WONDER / NVSS death-certificate data. The second source (CDC MMWR 2020) uses the same underlying NVSS pipeline for the earlier 2004-2018 period; treat the two as methodologically linked but covering non-overlapping date ranges.
Source date: 2024-08-27 · Accessed: 2026-05-01
Also cited in these entries
Heat stroke (outdoor)
What are the odds of dying from heat stroke or severe heat illness during outdoor activity?