Traumatic Brain Injury–Related Emergency Department Visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths — United States, 2007 and 2013

Used in 2 entries

For each citing entry, the verbatim excerpt and Likelier's calculation notes (how the source's number was converted to the lifetime-probability framing) are shown below. Click through to read the full claim ledger.

1. [1] Child fall head injury Risk

   Statistic

   Fall-related TBI ED visit rates in 2013: 1,094.4 per 100,000 for ages 0–4; 314.3 per 100,000 for ages 5–14

   “"The age-adjusted rate of fall-related TBI ED visits for children aged 0–4 years was 1,094.4 (95% CI: 973.5–1,215.3) per 100,000 population in 2013, compared with 314.3 (95% CI: 282.0–346.6) per 100,000 for ages 5–14. Falls accounted for approximately 71% of TBI ED visits among children aged 0–4 years and 39% among those aged 5–14."”

   Calculation notes

   Primary rate source. Annual fall-related TBI ED visit rates per 100,000 for ages 0–4 (1,094.4) and 5–14 (314.3) from Table 5 of the 2017 MMWR surveillance report. Population-weighted blended rate: (5 × 1,094.4 + 10 × 314.3) / 15 = 574.3 per 100,000 → native numerator 574, denominator 100,000. Cumulative childhood probability: 1 − (1 − 0.010944)^5 × (1 − 0.003143)^10 ≈ 0.082. Uncertainty bounds reflect the 2007 rates (789.1 and 217.6 per 100,000), which would produce a lower cumulative estimate (~0.060), and the upper CI limits of the 2013 rates, which produce ~0.110.
   

   Source date: 2017-03-17 · Accessed: 2026-05-02

2. [2] Traumatic brain injury Risk

   Statistic

   2013: approximately 2.8 million TBI-EDHDs in the US, comprising ~2.5 million ED visits, ~282,000 hospitalizations, and ~56,000 deaths. Falls were the leading mechanism at 413.2 per 100,000 (age-adjusted). Rate for age 75+ was 2,232.2 per 100,000.

   “"In 2013, a total of approximately 2.8 million TBI-EDHDs occurred in the United States. This consisted of approximately 2.5 million TBI-related ED visits, approximately 282,000 TBI-related hospitalizations, and approximately 56,000 TBI-related deaths."”

   Calculation notes

   Taylor et al. is the canonical US TBI surveillance paper and is the direct source of the native numerator (~282,000 US TBI hospitalizations/year ≈ 89/100,000/year in 2013) that we use for normalization. The same paper is also the source of the age-stratified rates used in the personal_factor_multipliers section: TBI rates at age 75+ are roughly 20x the rate among middle-aged adults, and falls are the leading mechanism for those older-adult hospitalizations. The shift noted in the paper — that intentional self-harm (primarily firearm suicide) surpassed motor vehicle crashes as the leading cause of TBI-related death between 2007 and 2013 — also feeds the fatal-TBI subset estimate and explains why the mortality number has risen while the hospitalization rate has flattened.
   

   Independence note: Upstream of most US TBI surveillance numbers. The CDC TBI data page we cite as the second authoritative source draws from the same National Vital Statistics System (for deaths) and state hospital discharge databases (for hospitalizations) as Taylor et al., so treat the two as one authoritative pipeline with two different vintages rather than as independent estimates.

   Source date: 2017-03-17 · Accessed: 2026-04-11

Also cited in these entries

kidsDirect

Child fall head injury

What are the odds of a child suffering a serious head or eye injury from a fall?

1 in 12 lifetime(8.2%)subgroupoverrated

HealthDirect

Traumatic brain injury

What are the odds of a serious traumatic brain injury in a lifetime?

1 in 33 lifetime(3.0%)