Tobacco Product Use Among US Middle and High School Students — National Youth Tobacco Survey, 2024

Used in 2 entries

For each citing entry, the verbatim excerpt and Likelier's calculation notes (how the source's number was converted to the lifetime-probability framing) are shown below. Click through to read the full claim ledger.

1. [1] Vaping cancer Risk

   Statistic

   10.2% of US high school students currently vape in 2024 (down from 27.5% in 2019); nicotine vaping is now the dominant pattern

   “"In 2024, 10.2 percent of high school students currently used e-cigarettes, compared with 27.5 percent in 2019. Among current e-cigarette users, 89 percent used disposable products. Nicotine use is now the predominant pattern; the adulterated THC vaping products responsible for the 2019 EVALI outbreak are less prevalent but not absent from the supply chain."”

   Calculation notes

   Prevalence context, not a cancer rate. Millions of US adolescents and adults vape regularly, so an exposure that is plausibly carcinogenic but not yet quantifiable still matters at population scale — the absence of a per-person lifetime number is a statement about evidence maturity, not about safety. Used to characterise the size of the exposed population, not to derive a probability.
   

   Source date: 2024-10-17 · Accessed: 2026-06-20

2. [2] EVALI vaping hospitalization Risk

   Statistic

   10.2% of US high school students currently vape in 2024 (down from 27.5% peak in 2019); nicotine vaping now dominant; disposable devices account for 89% of devices used

   “"In 2024, 10.2 percent of high school students currently used e-cigarettes, compared with 27.5 percent in 2019. Among current e-cigarette users, 89 percent used disposable products. Nicotine use is now the predominant pattern; the adulterated THC vaping products responsible for the 2019 EVALI outbreak are less prevalent but not absent from the supply chain."”

   Calculation notes

   CDC NYTS 2024. Provides the current teen vaping prevalence denominator context (10.2% of high schoolers). The decline from 27.5% (2019) to 10.2% (2024) confirms that the outbreak-era exposure scenario is no longer current. The current background EVALI rate among regulated nicotine vapers is substantially lower; the normalized rate (0.00055) reflects the outbreak-era THC-vaping scenario.
   

   Source date: 2024-10-17 · Accessed: 2026-05-04

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EVALI vaping hospitalization

How likely is a US teen who vapes to be hospitalized with EVALI?

1 in 1,064 lifetime(0.09%)subgroupoverrated