The near-universal experience of regret among smokers in four countries: findings from the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Survey

Used in 2 entries

For each citing entry, the verbatim excerpt and Likelier's calculation notes (how the source's number was converted to the lifetime-probability framing) are shown below. Click through to read the full claim ledger.

1. [1] Quitting smoking Decision · inaction side

   Statistic

   89-90% of smokers in US, UK, Canada, and Australia agreed or strongly agreed 'If you had to do it over again, you would not have started smoking'

   “"Across the four countries, the prevalence of regret ranged from 89% to 90%. Regret was near-universal among smokers, with minimal variation by country, age, sex, or education."”

   Calculation notes

   Direct survey item; 90% is the headline figure for Western countries. The ITC 4-country survey is the canonical source for smoker regret. We use 0.90 as the regret_rate.
   

   Source date: 2004-12-01 · Accessed: 2026-04-25

2. [2] Starting to smoke as a teen Decision · action side

   Statistic

   About 90% of smokers across Canada, US, UK, and Australia agreed or strongly agreed they would not have started smoking if they could do it again; US-specific rate was 91%

   “"The proportion of smokers who agreed or agreed strongly with the statement 'If you had to do it over again, you would not have started smoking' was extremely high — about 90% — and nearly identical across the four countries."”

   Calculation notes

   Fong et al. (2004), International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Survey (ITC-4), baseline wave October–December 2002, random-digit-dialed telephone survey of over 8,000 adult smokers across Canada, US, UK, and Australia. The US-specific regret rate is cited as 91% in subsequent studies (Sanders-Jackson 2017 cites it as "91% regret among United States smokers"). Used here as corroborating multi-country evidence. The higher 91% relative to Sanders-Jackson 71.5% likely reflects different wording ("if you had to do it over again" vs "if you had it to do over again"), older data (2002 vs 2014), and possible sample composition differences. Both are authoritative; the entry uses the Sanders-Jackson 71.5% as the conservative, most-recent estimate.
   

   Source date: 2004-11-01 · Accessed: 2026-05-22