The Experiences of U.S. Adults Who Don't Have Children
Cited in 3 Likelier entries (1 risk, 2 decisions).
Used in 3 entries
For each citing entry, the verbatim excerpt and Likelier's calculation notes (how the source's number was converted to the lifetime-probability framing) are shown below. Click through to read the full claim ledger.
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47% of US adults under 50 do not have children (2023), up from 37% in 2018
“"The proportion of adults in the United States younger than 50 years old who do not have children grew from 37% in 2018 to 47% in 2023."”
Calculation notes
Pew's 2024 survey documents the rising share of childless adults, but childlessness alone does not mean dying without an heir -- most childless adults have siblings, parents, or other relatives. The 47% figure for adults under 50 includes those who will later have children. For women 45-50 (near the end of fertility), the Census Bureau reports 14.9% are childless as of 2024, down from 16.7% in 2014. The Pew data is used here as a trend indicator: rising childlessness, combined with declining marriage rates and smaller family sizes, will increase the share of future elderly with no close relatives. This supports a slightly upward-adjusted central estimate relative to the current ~1.7% observed rate.
Independence note: Pew conducts its own nationally representative surveys using the American Trends Panel. Independent methodology from Penn State's longitudinal analysis.
Source date: 2024-07-25 · Accessed: 2026-04-18
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Among adults 50+ without children, 38% say there was a time they wanted children; broader context for fertility preference gaps
“"Among adults ages 50 and older who don't have children, 38% say there was a time when they wanted to have children. About three-in-ten (32%) say they never wanted children."”
Calculation notes
Pew data provides cross-validation for the IFS survey. The 38% who once wanted children among the childless represents a ceiling for wish-for-more regret. Used as contextual support, not as the primary figure.
Source date: 2024-07-25 · Accessed: 2026-04-25
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Among US adults 50+ without children, 38% say there was a time they wanted children; 32% say they never wanted them
“"Among adults ages 50 and older who don't have children, 38% say there was a time when they wanted to have children. About three-in-ten (32%) say they never wanted children."”
Calculation notes
Pew does not directly measure "regret" but the 38% who once wanted children is a ceiling for even partial regret. Combined with the MSU finding of no elevated regret, the inaction rate appears comparable to the action rate.
Source date: 2024-07-25 · Accessed: 2026-04-25
