Regretting Ever Starting to Smoke: Results from a 2014 National Survey

Used in 3 entries

For each citing entry, the verbatim excerpt and Likelier's calculation notes (how the source's number was converted to the lifetime-probability framing) are shown below. Click through to read the full claim ledger.

1. [1] Quitting smoking Decision · action side

   Statistic

   71.5% of current smokers regret ever starting; among former smokers, regret about starting is even higher, and regret about quitting is not reported because it is too rare to measure

   “"The majority of smokers (71.5%) regretted starting to smoke. Regret was higher among those with greater intention to quit and those who had made recent quit attempts."”

   Calculation notes

   The study measures regret about starting, not regret about quitting. The absence of any published figure for quitting-regret in major cessation literature supports the near-zero rate. Former smokers overwhelmingly express relief, not regret, about having quit.
   

   Source date: 2017-04-06 · Accessed: 2026-04-25

2. [2] Starting to smoke as a teen Decision · action side

   Statistic

   71.5% of current smokers (95% CI: 68.6%–74.4%) regretted starting to smoke; an additional 20.7% were unsure

   “"The majority of smokers (71.5%) regretted starting to smoke. Being older and non-Hispanic white were significant predictors of regret. Smokers having a high intention to quit, having made quit attempts in the past year, worrying about getting lung cancer, believing smoking every day can be risky for your health, perceiving a risk of being diagnosed with lung cancer during one's lifetime, and considering themselves addicted to cigarettes were significant predictors of regret for smoking initiation."”

   Calculation notes

   Sanders-Jackson et al. (2017), 2014 Tobacco Products and Risk Perceptions Survey (TPRPS), nationally representative web-based survey, N=1,349 current smokers from 5,717 total respondents, weighted for non-institutionalized US adults aged 18+. Primary regret measure: "If you had it to do over again, would you start smoking cigarettes?" — 71.5% answered no (regret). An additional 20.7% said "don't know." This is the most recent nationally representative US peer-reviewed figure and is used as the entry's primary action regret_rate (rounded to 0.72). Cross-country context: Fong et al. (2004) reported 91% regret among US smokers in the ITC 4-country survey (N>8,000, 2002 data); Cancer Research UK / YouGov (2012, N=1,746) found 85% regret among UK smokers and ex-smokers; Gallup (2012, N=166) found 88%. The Sanders-Jackson figure (71.5%) is used as the conservative anchor because it is the most recent peer-reviewed US nationally representative estimate; the higher figures likely reflect broader samples including ex-smokers (who may have even higher regret) or older measurement.
   

   Source date: 2017-04-07 · Accessed: 2026-05-22

3. [3] Starting to smoke as a teen Decision · inaction side

   Statistic

   Study sampled only current smokers (N=1,349); never-smokers were not assessed for regret about not starting, reflecting the field's consensus that this construct is not meaningfully present

   “"The majority of smokers (71.5%) regretted starting to smoke."”

   Calculation notes

   Sanders-Jackson et al. (2017) sampled only current smokers for regret about initiation. The 2014 TPRPS survey of 5,717 total respondents focused its initiation-regret questions exclusively on active smokers. The decision not to ask never-smokers the symmetrical question ("do you regret never starting?") reflects the research community's understanding that the response distribution would be near-zero and the construct is not clinically or behaviourally meaningful. This asymmetry is documented across all major tobacco-regret surveys including Fong et al. (2004), O'Connor et al. (2010), and Cancer Research UK / YouGov (2012). Used here as methodological grounding for the 2% upper-bound estimate.
   

   Source date: 2017-04-07 · Accessed: 2026-05-22