Long-Term Services and Supports for Older Americans: Risks and Financing, 2022
Cited in 2 Likelier entries (2 risks, 0 decisions).
Used in 2 entries
For each citing entry, the verbatim excerpt and Likelier's calculation notes (how the source's number was converted to the lifetime-probability framing) are shown below. Click through to read the full claim ledger.
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- Statistic
22% of adults turning 65 in 2021-2025 will have LTSS needs lasting more than five years; this share is higher for low-income adults (29%) and those in fair/poor health at 65 (25%)
“"About 56 percent of people turning 65 between 2021 and 2025 will need LTSS in their lifetime. About 22 percent will have needs lasting more than five years."”
Calculation notes
ASPE 2022 DYNASIM4 microsimulation for adults turning 65 in 2021-2025. The 22% figure is the share with LTSS needs (any type) lasting >5 years, conditional on reaching age 65. Unconditional from birth: 0.22 × 0.82 ≈ 0.18. Using 2024 Genworth Cost of Care data for context: $127,750/year for a nursing home private room; 5 years = ~$638,750. Even at home health aide rates (~$68,600/year median in 2024), 5 years = ~$343,000. These costs are beyond the reach of most middle-income households without LTC insurance or Medicaid spend-down.
Independence note: ASPE DYNASIM4 uses its own microsimulation modeling framework drawing on Census, HRS, and CMS administrative data. The 2022 projections are forward-looking estimates, distinct from the retrospective HRS-based analysis in Johnson (2019).
Source date: 2022-09-27 · Accessed: 2026-05-14
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- Statistic
56% of adults turning 65 in 2021-2025 will need LTSS; 22% will need 5+ years; average nursing home cost $127,750/year (private room, 2024)
“"About 56 percent of people turning 65 between 2021 and 2025 will need LTSS in their lifetime. About 22 percent will have needs lasting more than five years."”
Calculation notes
The 2022 brief uses updated DYNASIM4 projections for adults turning 65 in 2021-2025 and a slightly different LTSS definition than the 2019 analysis, producing the lower 56% headline. The 22% needing >5 years is a key catastrophic-cost benchmark. This source corroborates Entry 3 (five-plus-years-paid-ltc); the core 70% figure comes from the 2019 historical HRS analysis.
Independence note: Same DYNASIM microsimulation model as the 2019 report but applied to a future cohort. The 2022 and 2019 reports are complementary, not conflicting.
Source date: 2022-09-27 · Accessed: 2026-05-14
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5+ years paid LTC
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