Government report
Bureau of Justice Statistics (Koppel, 1987)
Lifetime Likelihood of Victimization
Cited in 2 Likelier entries (2 risks, 0 decisions).
Used in 2 entries
For each citing entry, the verbatim excerpt and Likelier's calculation notes (how the source's number was converted to the lifetime-probability framing) are shown below. Click through to read the full claim ledger.
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- Statistic
72% lifetime probability of household burglary (based on 1975-1984 NCVS rates)
“"Based on 1975-84 annual victimization rates and life tables, the lifetime likelihood of being a victim of a personal theft or household burglary was estimated at 72% for burglary."”
Calculation notes
Koppel (1987) used 1975-1984 NCVS annual burglary rates (which ranged from ~60-80 per 1,000 households) and NCHS life tables. At those rates the 72% lifetime figure was mathematically sound. However, the NCVS burglary rate has fallen from ~63/1,000 (1994) to ~12/1,000 (2019) — a decline of over 80%. Recalculating with the 2024 FBI police-reported rate of 2.9/1,000 yields ~11% over 40 years. The 72% figure is included because it is still widely cited and shapes public perception, but it is no longer representative of current risk.
Source date: 1987-03-01 · Accessed: 2026-04-22
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- Statistic
83% lifetime likelihood of violent crime victimization for US residents; 92% for Black men
“"Five of six persons will be the victim of a completed or attempted violent crime (rape, robbery, or assault) at least once during their lifetimes."”
Calculation notes
Koppel 1987 is the only BJS publication that directly estimates lifetime victimization probability. The 83% figure covers all violent crime (rape, robbery, assault) across all contexts and all offender relationships over a full lifetime. The street-stranger subset on this page is a fraction of the Koppel total. The Koppel estimates were derived from 1975-1984 National Crime Survey rates, which were higher than current NCVS rates, so the lifetime probability under current rates would be lower — hence this page's central estimate of 0.276 for the stranger-in-public-space subset rather than the Koppel-era 0.83 for all violent crime.
Source date: 1987-03-01 · Accessed: 2026-04-18
