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Government report U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement

ICE Releases Fiscal Year 2023 Annual Report

Cited in 2 Likelier entries (2 risks, 0 decisions).

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Used in 2 entries

For each citing entry, the verbatim excerpt and Likelier's calculation notes (how the source's number was converted to the lifetime-probability framing) are shown below. Click through to read the full claim ledger.

  1. [1] Deportation (undocumented) Risk
    Statistic
    142,580 formal removals in FY2023; over 1 million total removals and expulsions including Title 42
    “"ERO conducted 142,580 removals and 62,545 Title 42 expulsions to more than 170 countries worldwide in Fiscal Year 2023."”
    Calculation notes 
    ICE ERO's FY2023 formal removals (142,580) represent the floor of annual deportation activity. Adding Title 42 expulsions and CBP removals raises the total substantially. For the native figure, I use a central estimate of ~250,000 annual removals (blending FY2023 and FY2024 data, excluding Title 42 expulsions which ended May 2023) against a midpoint undocumented population of ~13 million. Annual hazard: 250,000 / 13,000,000 ≈ 0.019. Over 40 years: 1 - (1 - 0.019)^40 ≈ 0.55.

    Source date: 2024-03-01 · Accessed: 2026-04-18

  2. [2] Visa overstay deportation Risk
    Statistic
    ERO conducted 142,580 removals in FY2023; overstay-specific removal figures are not published separately
    “"ERO conducted 142,580 removals and 62,545 Title 42 expulsions to more than 170 countries worldwide in Fiscal Year 2023."”
    Calculation notes 
    ICE FY2023 removals (142,580) cover all grounds of removal: prior criminal conviction, immigration violations including overstays, entry without inspection, and pending criminal charges. ICE does not publish a breakdown of how many removals were specifically for visa overstay violations. Using the ~40% overstayer share of the undocumented population (from CRS R47848) as a proxy: 142,580 * 0.40 ≈ 57,000 overstayer removals per year. This is a rough approximation; in practice, ICE prioritizes criminal records over immigration-only violations, meaning the actual overstay-removal fraction is likely below the 40% population share. Central estimate: ~50,000-70,000 overstay removals per year.

    Source date: 2024-03-01 · Accessed: 2026-05-09

Also cited in these entries

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Deportation (undocumented)

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Visa overstay deportation

What are the odds of being detained and deported from the US after overstaying a visa?