Home Fires Caused by Electrical Distribution and Lighting Equipment
Cited in 2 Likelier entries (2 risks, 0 decisions).
Used in 2 entries
For each citing entry, the verbatim excerpt and Likelier's calculation notes (how the source's number was converted to the lifetime-probability framing) are shown below. Click through to read the full claim ledger.
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- Statistic
~30,740 home electrical fires per year in the US (2016-2020), representing ~8-9% of all home fires; ~1,500 battery-caused home fires per year (2014-2018)
“"An estimated 30,740 home structure fires per year were caused by electrical distribution and lighting equipment from 2016 to 2020, resulting in 390 civilian deaths, 1,090 injuries, and $1.4 billion in direct property damage annually."”
Calculation notes
NFPA's electrical fire data bundles chargers into broader categories (electrical distribution equipment, batteries). There is no standalone "idle charger" fire category because such incidents are too rare or nonexistent to track. The ~1,500 battery-caused fires/year involve active charging or device failures. Cords and plugs cause ~1% of home fires but 6% of fire fatalities, with extension cords as the primary culprit -- not idle wall-wart chargers.
Source date: 2023-01-01 · Accessed: 2026-04-24
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- Statistic
Lightning causes approximately 4% of US home structure fires annually (2019-2023 data period)
“"Lightning accounts for 4 percent of house fires according to NFPA data covering 2019-2023. Fire departments responded to an estimated average of 24,600 fires started by lightning per year during 2004-2008."”
Calculation notes
Primary basis for the normalized probability. NFPA estimates ~343,100 US home structure fires per year (2019-2023 average). At 4% attribution to lightning: 343,100 × 0.04 = 13,724 lightning-caused home fires per year. Using 13,724 / 84,000,000 owner-occupied homes = 0.01634%/yr. Over 59 years: 1 − (1 − 0.0001634)^59 ≈ 0.0095 (0.95%, ~1 in 105). The historical 2004-2008 average was ~24,600/yr, suggesting the current rate has declined; the 2019-2023 figure of ~13,700 is used as the current-period estimate. The NFPA fire-ignition rate is the correct basis for this entry because the slug and question specifically address fire risk, not all lightning damage events.
Independence note: NFPA fire cause data is compiled from National Fire Incident Reporting System (NFIRS) submissions by local fire departments, entirely separate from insurance claims databases.
Source date: 2025-01-01 · Accessed: 2026-05-14
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