Heart Disease Facts
Cited in 2 Likelier entries (2 risks, 0 decisions).
Used in 2 entries
For each citing entry, the verbatim excerpt and Likelier's calculation notes (how the source's number was converted to the lifetime-probability framing) are shown below. Click through to read the full claim ledger.
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- Statistic
About 805,000 people in the United States have a heart attack each year; 605,000 are a first heart attack. Every 40 seconds someone in the US has a heart attack.
“"Every year, about 805,000 people in the United States have a heart attack. Of these, 605,000 are a first heart attack and 200,000 happen to people who have already had a heart attack."”
Calculation notes
605,000 first heart attacks per year. US adult population ~260 million. Annual incidence rate: 605,000 / 260,000,000 ≈ 0.233% per year. Over 59 adult years at this rate: 1 − (1 − 0.00233)^59 ≈ 12.7% — but this double-counts survivors who may have subsequent events tracked separately, and underestimates because CDC figures include both fatal and non-fatal first MIs. The Framingham lifetime-risk method (see source 1) is the more appropriate basis for the lifetime point estimate. Used here to anchor the native display rate and corroborate the Framingham estimate.
Independence note: CDC Health Statistics draws on the AHA Statistical Update (2025) and NHANES surveillance. It is methodologically independent of the Framingham Heart Study prospective cohort, using administrative and survey-based data rather than direct cohort follow-up.
Source date: 2025-01-01 · Accessed: 2026-05-14
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- Statistic
In 2023, 919,032 Americans died from cardiovascular disease (1 in 3 US deaths); coronary heart disease killed 371,506 people in 2022
“"In 2023, 919,032 people died from cardiovascular disease. That's the equivalent of 1 in every 3 deaths. [...] Coronary heart disease is the most common type of heart disease. It killed 371,506 people in 2022. [...] About 1 in 20 adults age 20 and older have CAD (about 5%)."”
Calculation notes
~371,500 US coronary heart disease deaths / ~260 million US adults ≈ 1.43 per 1,000 adults/year. Compounded over 60 adult years: 1 − (1 − 1.43e-3)^60 ≈ 0.082. Adding hypertensive and other ischaemic forms brings the US narrow-heart-disease lifetime figure to roughly 0.10-0.12, which is what the regional_breakdown uses for the US entry. The figure is slightly lower than the global adult headline because US crude rates are below the Eastern European / Central Asian peak but well above the East Asian low, so the US sits modestly above the global average once you restrict to ischaemic-heart-disease mortality. Used as an anchor for the US-specific row and for the personal-factor multipliers, which are based on well-established relative risks from Framingham-derived cohorts and subsequent cardiovascular epidemiology.
Independence note: CDC heart disease facts page draws from NVSS/NCHS death-certificate data; shares the GBD analytical pipeline with WHO estimates but applies US-specific age adjustment.
Source date: 2025-01-15 · Accessed: 2026-04-11
