Generative AI is expected to magnify the risk of deepfakes and other fraud in banking
Cited in 2 Likelier entries (2 risks, 0 decisions).
Used in 2 entries
For each citing entry, the verbatim excerpt and Likelier's calculation notes (how the source's number was converted to the lifetime-probability framing) are shown below. Click through to read the full claim ledger.
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Generative AI could enable US fraud losses to reach $40 billion by 2027, up from $12.3 billion in 2023 — a 32% compound annual growth rate
“"gen AI could enable fraud losses to reach US$40 billion in the United States by 2027, from US$12.3 billion in 2023, a compound annual growth rate of 32%."”
Calculation notes
Deloitte's projection is a forward-looking loss-trend estimate across AI-enabled fraud types (including synthetic-identity fraud built from breached real data), not a card-fraud incidence rate. It supports the breach-driven exposure caveat by quantifying how cheaply AI now lets fraudsters weaponize the breached card and SSN data ITRC tracks. It is not an input to the 65% lifetime point estimate.
Independence note: Deloitte's Center for Financial Services publishes independent industry analysis, methodologically distinct from the FTC, ITRC, Security.org, and Javelin sources above.
Source date: 2024-05-29 · Accessed: 2026-06-14
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Deloitte's 2024 projection: gen-AI-enabled fraud losses in the US could reach $40 billion by 2027, up from $12.3 billion in 2023 — a 32% compound annual growth rate
“"gen AI could enable fraud losses to reach US$40 billion in the United States by 2027, from US$12.3 billion in 2023, a compound annual growth rate of 32%."”
Calculation notes
Deloitte's Center for Financial Services built this projection by assigning generative-risk scores to 26 IC3 complaint categories and modelling forward growth; the conservative variant lands nearer $22 billion. It is a forward-looking industry projection, not an observed base rate, and it does not yield a per-person lifetime probability — it forecasts an aggregate US dollar loss. It is included here to bound the trajectory and corroborate the FBI's first-year nine-figure AI-fraud loss: an independent analyst forecasts roughly 3.25x growth ($12.3B to $40B) over four years, consistent with the steep curve that makes any stable per-person estimate premature. This reinforces, rather than resolves, the no_reliable_estimate flag.
Source date: 2024-05-29 · Accessed: 2026-06-14
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