FBI Releases 2024 Reported Crimes in the Nation Statistics
Cited in 2 Likelier entries (2 risks, 0 decisions).
Used in 2 entries
For each citing entry, the verbatim excerpt and Likelier's calculation notes (how the source's number was converted to the lifetime-probability framing) are shown below. Click through to read the full claim ledger.
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- Statistic
779,542 total burglaries in 2024; rate of 229.2 per 100,000 residents; residential burglaries accounted for ~52% of the total
“"The FBI reported 779,542 burglary offenses in 2024, a rate of 229.2 per 100,000 inhabitants, down from 253.3 per 100,000 in 2023 — a 9.5% year-over-year decline."”
Calculation notes
779,542 total burglaries × 52% residential = ~405,776 residential burglaries. Divided by ~140 million US households = 2.9 per 1,000 households per year. Over 40 years: 1 - (1 - 0.0029)^40 = 0.109, or ~11% lifetime probability. The 2024 rate continues a long-term decline: the 2005 rate was 738.9 per 100,000, meaning burglary has fallen ~69% in rate over two decades.
Source date: 2025-09-30 · Accessed: 2026-04-22
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US murder and nonnegligent manslaughter rate fell 14.9% in 2024 to 5.0 per 100,000 — largest one-year decline on record and lowest since 2015; 2020 peak was 6.7 per 100,000
“"Murder and non-negligent manslaughter recorded a 2024 estimated nationwide decrease of 14.9% compared to the previous year." The 2024 rate of 5 per 100,000 inhabitants is the lowest recorded since 2015; over the prior 20 years the rate peaked at 6.7 per 100,000 in 2020 and reached its lowest at 4.4 per 100,000 in 2014.”
Calculation notes
FBI UCR (NIBRS-based) reports a 2024 murder/nonnegligent-manslaughter rate of 5.0 per 100,000, a 14.9% year-over-year decline. (A 14.9% drop to 5.0 implies a 2023 base of ~5.9 per 100,000, consistent with the CDC NVSS and BJS 2023 figures used as cross-checks above; the secondary press number of "5.7" for 2023 does not reconcile exactly with the official 14.9% decline, so we cite only the verified 2024 rate and percent change.) Annual rate 5.0 / 100,000 = 0.00005 per person-year. Lifetime over 59 adult years: 1 − (1 − 0.00005)^59 ≈ 0.00295 ≈ 1 in 339. The new headline replaces the prior ~5.9 (2023–2024) figure and reflects the post-pandemic decline. Uncertainty low bound 0.00236 uses the Council on Criminal Justice ~4.0 per 100,000 projection for 2025 (see separate CCJ source); high bound 0.00395 uses the 2020 peak of ~6.7 per 100,000.
Independence note: FBI UCR aggregates law-enforcement incident reports nationally; it is the same agency pipeline as BJS victimization but is the primary, most timely official rate series and is independent of CDC's death-certificate NVSS count. The 14.9% 2024 decline is corroborated by CBS News and the Center for American Progress analyses of the same release.
Source date: 2025-08-05 · Accessed: 2026-06-14
