Drowning Facts
Cited in 2 Likelier entries (2 risks, 0 decisions).
Used in 2 entries
For each citing entry, the verbatim excerpt and Likelier's calculation notes (how the source's number was converted to the lifetime-probability framing) are shown below. Click through to read the full claim ledger.
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- Statistic
Drowning is the #1 cause of death for children ages 1-4; ~4,000 fatal unintentional drownings per year in the US
“"Every year in the United States there are over 4,000 unintentional drowning deaths. More children ages 1-4 die from drowning than any other cause of death. For children ages 1-14, drowning is the second leading cause of unintentional injury death after motor vehicle crashes."”
Calculation notes
CDC confirms the #1-cause-of-death ranking for ages 1-4 and provides the all-ages denominator (~4,000/year). The age-specific rates used in the normalized calculation (~3 per 100,000/year for ages 1-4) derive from WISQARS fatal injury data cross-referenced with this page. Childhood cumulative: 1 - (1 - 3e-5)^4 × (1 - 5e-6)^10 ≈ 4.35e-4.
Independence note: Built from NCHS/NVSS death-certificate records (ICD-10 W65-W74). Same underlying mortality files as the CPSC pool-safety reports, but the CDC page provides the age-stratified framing used to anchor the native rate.
Source date: 2024-05-14 · Accessed: 2026-04-18
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- Statistic
~4,000 fatal unintentional drownings per year in the US; drowning is the leading cause of death for children 1-4
“"Every year in the United States there are over 4,000 unintentional drowning deaths. [...] More children ages 1-4 die from drowning than any other cause of death. [...] Drowning is the second leading cause of unintentional injury death for children ages 5-14."”
Calculation notes
Corroborates the headline annual US total and the age-1-4 concentration that justifies the small downward adjustment from the all-ages rate when normalizing to US adults.
Independence note: Same underlying NCHS mortality files as the MMWR source — treat as confirmation, not an independent estimate.
Source date: 2024-05-14 · Accessed: 2026-04-11
