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Likelier
Government report Bureau of Transportation Statistics (DOT)

Air Travel Consumer Report: December 2024, Full Year 2024 Numbers

Cited in 2 Likelier entries (2 risks, 0 decisions).

Used in 2 entries

For each citing entry, the verbatim excerpt and Likelier's calculation notes (how the source's number was converted to the lifetime-probability framing) are shown below. Click through to read the full claim ledger.

  1. Statistic
    Mishandled baggage rate 0.55% in 2024 (5.5 per 1,000 checked bags), down from 0.58% in 2023; monthly range: 0.38% (October) to 0.75% (January, July)
    “"In 2024, the reporting marketing carriers reported a mishandled baggage rate of 0.55%, down from 0.58% in 2023. Monthly rates throughout 2024 ranged from a low of 0.38% in October to a high of 0.75% in January and July."”
    Calculation notes
    BTS switched from per-1,000-bags to percentage reporting in January 2022. 0.55% = 5.5 per 1,000 checked bags. For 2 checked bags/year over 30 years: 1 − (1 − 0.0055)^60 ≈ 0.28. Central estimate 0.27 used. Of the mishandled bags, BTS reports approximately 74% are delayed (temporarily) and recovered, 8% are lost or stolen, and 18% are damaged or pilfered.
    

    Independence note: BTS mishandled-baggage data is compiled from mandatory DOT reports submitted by reporting marketing carriers under 14 CFR Part 234. It is an administrative regulatory dataset, separate from airline customer complaint surveys and independent from the SITA Baggage IT Insights reports (which use a different definition and a global scope).

    Source date: 2025-02-01 · Accessed: 2026-05-14

  2. Statistic
    1.4% of flights canceled in full-year 2024 by reporting marketing carriers; 2023 rate was 1.3%; 2022 rate was 2.7%
    “"In 2024, 1.4% of flights were cancelled, higher than the 1.3% cancellation rate in 2023. Monthly rates in 2024 ranged from a low of 0.6% in September to a high of 2.0% in August."”
    Calculation notes
    BTS reports cancellation rates monthly. The full-year 2024 rate of 1.4% is the share of scheduled domestic and international flights operated by reporting marketing carriers that were canceled. Per-segment: 0.014. For 80 segments (4/year × 20 years): 1 − (0.986)^80 ≈ 0.67. For 58 segments (median estimate): 1 − (0.986)^58 ≈ 0.56. The central estimate of 0.56 is used.
    

    Independence note: BTS Air Travel Consumer Report data is compiled from mandatory reporting by US airlines to the DOT under 14 CFR Part 234. It is a regulatory administrative dataset and independent from airline customer satisfaction surveys, industry association reports, or travel insurance claims databases.

    Source date: 2025-02-01 · Accessed: 2026-05-14

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