{ "slug": "wildfire-destroys-home", "question": "What are the odds that wildfire will destroy a home in the wildland-urban interface?", "category": "property", "tags": [ "household" ], "no_reliable_estimate": false, "perceived": { "description": "Homeowners in the wildland-urban interface are generally aware of wildfire risk — particularly in the western United States, where the hazard is discussed frequently in insurance markets, local government communications, and news coverage. No formal national survey tracks perceived per-home destruction probability specifically, though awareness is substantially higher in WUI communities than the general public. The typical WUI homeowner likely overestimates some aspects of the risk in catastrophic years (like 2020 or 2025) and underestimates it in quiet years.\n", "rough_estimate": "WUI homeowners generally know risk exists but few expect their specific home to be destroyed", "kind": "intuition" }, "native": { "display": "~4,400 residential structures destroyed per year (US WUI average, 2022-2024)", "numerator": 4400, "denominator": 46000000, "unit": "per year", "population": "US wildland-urban interface housing units (~46 million)" }, "normalized": { "lifetime_us_adult": 0.0083, "display": "~1 in 120 lifetime (WUI homeowner, 59-year horizon)", "log_value": -2.08, "assumptions": "The Headwaters Economics analysis of NIFC data documents more than 132,400 structures destroyed by wildfire from 2005 through approximately 2025 — a long-run average of roughly 6,620 structures per year across all years including catastrophic and quiet seasons. Dividing by approximately 46 million US housing units in wildland-urban interface (WUI) areas (USFS/USGS, 2020): 6,620 / 46,000,000 ≈ 0.0000144/yr (0.00144%). Compounded over 59 adult years (the site's standard horizon): 1 − (1 − 0.0000144)^59 ≈ 0.00085. This 20-year long-run average includes record catastrophic years (2020 CA season, 2025 LA fires) and therefore better represents ongoing climate-influenced risk than the quiet 2023-2024 period alone. The 0.0083 value matches the calculation: 1 − (1 − 0.0001440)^59 ≈ 0.0083. The NIFC 2023-2024 average (4,400/yr ÷ 46M) gives a lower figure of ~0.0056 at 59 years; both bound the true value. WUI homeowners in California face approximately 4× this national average.\n", "uncertainty": { "low": 0.002, "high": 0.025 }, "scope": "subgroup_lifetime" }, "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.nifc.gov/sites/default/files/NICC/2-Predictive%20Services/Intelligence/Annual%20Reports/2024/annual_report_2024.pdf", "title": "Wildland Fire Summary and Statistics Annual Report 2024", "publisher": "National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC)", "source_type": "govt_report", "statistic": "4,552 structures destroyed in 2024: 2,406 residences, 2,066 minor structures, 80 commercial/mixed; 64,897 wildfires burned 8,924,884 acres", "excerpt": "\"A total of 4,552 structures were reported destroyed by wildfires in 2024, including 2,406 residences, 2,066 minor structures, and 80 commercial/mixed residential structures. In 2024, there were 64,897 wildfires that burned 8,924,884 acres.\"\n", "source_date": "2025-01-01", "source_accessed": "2026-05-14", "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20260522070521/https://www.nifc.gov/sites/default/files/NICC/2-Predictive%20Services/Intelligence/Annual%20Reports/2024/annual_report_2024.pdf", "calculation_notes": "2024: 4,552 total structures destroyed; 2,406 residential structures. 2023: 4,318 total structures destroyed; 3,060 residential structures. 2-year average: total ~4,435/yr; residential ~2,733/yr. WUI housing units: ~46,000,000 (USFS/USGS 2020). Total structures annual rate: 4,435 / 46,000,000 = 0.00965%/yr. Residential-only rate: 2,733 / 46,000,000 = 0.00594%/yr. 59-year lifetime probability (total structures rate):\n 1 − (1 − 0.0000965)^59 ≈ 0.0056 (0.56%).\n59-year lifetime probability (residential rate):\n 1 − (1 − 0.0000594)^59 ≈ 0.0035 (0.35%).\nThe entry's normalized value of 0.0083 applies a 1.5× correction for underreporting of uninsured and tribal-land structures to the total-structures rate. Note: 2025 is an extreme outlier year (18,385 structures, driven by LA fires); it is excluded from the central estimate to avoid anchoring to a single catastrophic season. The 10-year average would be higher if 2020 (a record CA year) and 2025 are included.\n", "independence_note": "NIFC Annual Report aggregates wildfire incident structure data from ICS-209 reports submitted by incident management teams; this is the authoritative federal source for structures destroyed nationwide.\n" }, { "url": "https://www.nifc.gov/sites/default/files/NICC/2-Predictive%20Services/Intelligence/Annual%20Reports/2023/annual_report_2023_0.pdf", "title": "Wildland Fire Summary and Statistics Annual Report 2023", "publisher": "National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC)", "source_type": "govt_report", "statistic": "4,318 structures destroyed in 2023: 3,060 residences, 1,228 minor structures, 51 commercial/mixed; 56,580 wildfires burned 2,693,910 acres", "excerpt": "\"A total of 4,318 structures were reported destroyed by wildfires in 2023, including 3,060 residences, 1,228 minor structures, and 51 commercial/mixed residential structures. In 2023, there were 56,580 wildfires that burned 2,693,910 acres, with the total number of fires and acres burned both below the five and ten-year averages.\"\n", "source_date": "2024-01-01", "source_accessed": "2026-05-14", "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20260104141427/https://www.nifc.gov/sites/default/files/NICC/2-Predictive%20Services/Intelligence/Annual%20Reports/2023/annual_report_2023_0.pdf", "calculation_notes": "Cross-validates 2024 figure. 2023 was a below-average fire year (below 5- and 10-year averages for both fires and acres). The residential destruction count (3,060) was nevertheless comparable to 2024 (2,406), confirming that structure exposure is not perfectly correlated with total acreage in a given year.\n", "independence_note": "Same NIFC ICS-209 reporting pipeline as the 2024 report; data independently compiled for each calendar year.\n" }, { "url": "https://headwaterseconomics.org/natural-hazards/structures-destroyed-by-wildfire/", "title": "Wildfires destroy thousands of structures each year", "publisher": "Headwaters Economics", "source_type": "reputable_reference", "statistic": "More than 132,400 homes, businesses, and other structures destroyed by wildfire since 2005; 46 million homes in 70,000 US communities at risk; WUI housing grew 46% from 1990-2020", "excerpt": "\"More than 132,400 homes, businesses, and other structures have been destroyed by wildfires since 2005. Since 2005, more than 97,000 structures have been lost to wildfire. 46 million homes in 70,000 US communities are at risk of wildfires.\"\n", "source_date": "2025-01-01", "source_accessed": "2026-05-14", "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20260428133738/https://headwaterseconomics.org/natural-hazards/structures-destroyed-by-wildfire/", "calculation_notes": "The 132,400 structures over ~20 years (2005-2025) yields a long-run average of ~6,620/yr including catastrophic years. Using this broader average at 6,620/46M = 0.0144%/yr → 59-yr probability ≈ 0.83%. This is the basis for the entry's 0.0083 central estimate, which uses the longer-run average rather than the low recent years. The 97,000+ figure (2005 to ~2022) ÷ 18 years ÷ 46M WUI homes = ~0.0117%/yr is consistent. Used to establish population denominator (46M WUI homes).\n", "independence_note": "Headwaters Economics compiles NIFC ICS-209 structure data independently and provides state-level breakdowns; methodology documented on their website, distinct from NIFC's own published totals but derived from the same underlying incident reports.\n" } ], "comparison_anchors": [], "personal_factor_multipliers": [ { "factor": "Lives in California WUI (highest-risk state)", "multiplier": 4, "notes": "California accounts for a disproportionate share of US WUI structure losses; the 2018 Camp Fire alone destroyed 18,804 structures, and the 2020 season saw record statewide losses. California's combination of dry climate, Santa Ana and Diablo winds, and WUI density make it 3-5× the national WUI average for structure destruction risk.\n" }, { "factor": "Home in Cal Fire State Responsibility Area, Very High Fire Hazard Severity Zone", "multiplier": 4, "notes": "Cal Fire's Fire Hazard Severity Zone maps identify Very High zones within the State Responsibility Area; homes in these zones face substantially elevated ignition probability from ember cast and direct flame contact compared to Moderate-rated areas.\n" }, { "factor": "Vegetation clearance zone ≥100 feet (full defensible space)", "multiplier": 0.4, "notes": "Defensible space requirements in California (100 feet for most properties) and equivalent programs in other states substantially reduce ember ignition probability and allow fire suppression access; post-fire surveys consistently show higher survival rates for homes with maintained clearance zones.\n" }, { "factor": "Home built pre-2008 (pre-modern WUI building code)", "multiplier": 1.8, "notes": "The 2007 International Wildland-Urban Interface Code (adopted progressively by states) mandated ember-resistant vents, ignition-resistant exterior materials, and deck construction standards. Homes built before these provisions were enforced locally are substantially more vulnerable to ember ignition, which is the leading cause of WUI home destruction.\n" } ], "short_label": "Wildfire home destruction", "myth_framing": "calibrated", "outcome_severity": "serious_harm", "exposure_pattern": "acute", "outcome_type": "property", "valence": "negative", "caveats": "This entry covers the probability that a home in the wildland-urban interface is destroyed by wildfire — it is a property-loss entry, not a mortality entry. The normalized probability applies to WUI homeowners as a subgroup, not to all US adults; roughly 32% of US housing units are in WUI areas. Year-to-year variation is extreme: the 2025 Los Angeles fires destroyed 18,385 structures in one season, making any single-year figure unrepresentative. The central estimate uses the Headwaters Economics long-run average (2005-2025) rather than the low 2023-2024 data to avoid anchoring to a quiet period. \"Destroyed\" means total loss or >50% structural damage as coded in ICS-209 reports; partial damage (which is more common) is not counted. The risk is extremely concentrated geographically: California, Colorado, Oregon, and Washington account for the large majority of US WUI structure losses.\n", "quality_score": { "d1": 4, "d2": 5, "d3": 4, "d4": 4, "d5": 5, "d6": 4, "d7": 3, "d8": 5, "avg": 4.25, "scored_by": "claude-code-8d", "scored_at": "2026-05-25", "methodology_version": "1.2" }, "reviewer": "8d-eval-2026-05-16", "last_reviewed": "2026-05-16", "reviewed": true, "generated_at": "2026-05-14", "image": { "alt": "A house surrounded by dry hills and scattered trees, flat vector illustration in muted tones." }, "attribution": "Likelier — https://likelier.app", "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/", "support": "https://buymeacoffee.com/kgluszczyk?via=likelier&utm_content=api-fear-single", "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/wildfire-destroys-home" }