{
  "slug": "unsafe-wiring-electrocution",
  "question": "What are the odds of dying from electrocution due to unsafe household wiring?",
  "category": "health",
  "tags": [
    "household"
  ],
  "no_reliable_estimate": false,
  "perceived": {
    "description": "In countries with enforced electrical codes, licensed electricians, and ground-fault circuit interrupters, electrocution at home feels like a freak accident rather than a systematic hazard. The mental model is a toddler sticking a fork in an outlet, not a failure mode embedded in national infrastructure. In much of the developing world the situation is structurally different: unauthorized electrical installations, exposed wiring, absence of earth-fault protection, and voltage irregularities create a background risk that kills thousands per year. India alone recorded 9,606 electrocution deaths in 2016. The hazard is invisible to anyone whose home was wired to code and inspected before occupancy.\n",
    "kind": "intuition"
  },
  "native": {
    "display": "~15,000 deaths per year globally from electrocution",
    "numerator": 15000,
    "denominator": 3000000000,
    "unit": "per year",
    "population": "adults in countries with significant informal or unsafe wiring infrastructure"
  },
  "normalized": {
    "lifetime_us_adult": 0.000295,
    "display": "~1 in 3,400 lifetime (adult in countries with unsafe wiring)",
    "log_value": -3.53,
    "assumptions": "Native rate: No single authoritative global estimate exists for electrocution deaths. India reported 9,606 electrocution deaths in 2016 (National Crime Records Bureau). The US reports approximately 1,000 electrocution deaths per year (ESFI/OSHA). Bangladesh community surveys found an incidence of 1.6-4.3 fatal electrical injuries per 100,000 population. Extrapolating from country-level data and the observation that developing countries with poor electrical infrastructure bear the majority of the burden, a conservative global estimate of ~15,000 deaths per year is used (midpoint of the 7,000-24,000 range cited in safety literature). The at-risk population is estimated at ~3 billion adults living in countries with significant informal or unsafe wiring infrastructure (primarily South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and parts of Southeast Asia and Latin America), rather than the full 5 billion global adult population, because electrocution risk from household wiring is concentrated in regions without enforced electrical codes. India alone (population ~1.4 billion) accounts for roughly 64% of known electrocution deaths. 15,000 / 3,000,000,000 = 0.000005. Lifetime conversion: 1 - (1 - 0.000005)^59 = 0.000295. Low bound: 7,000/3B compounded 59 years = 0.000138. High bound: 24,000/3B compounded 59 years = 0.000472. The estimate carries substantial uncertainty because many countries do not systematically report electrocution deaths, and household electrocutions in informal settlements are likely under-counted.\n",
    "uncertainty": {
      "low": 0.000138,
      "high": 0.000472
    },
    "scope": "subgroup_lifetime"
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK448087/",
      "title": "Electrical Injuries — StatPearls",
      "publisher": "National Library of Medicine / StatPearls",
      "source_type": "reputable_reference",
      "statistic": "Electrical injuries cause approximately 1,000 deaths per year in the United States and affect more than 30,000 people; electrical burn injuries account for up to 27% of burn unit admissions in developing countries versus 0.04-5% in developed countries",
      "excerpt": "\"In the United States, electrical injuries cause approximately 1000 deaths annually. Of these, around 400 result from high-voltage electrical injuries, while lightning accounts for 50 to 300 deaths. Additionally, there are at least 30,000 nonfatal electrical shock incidents each year.\"\n",
      "source_date": "2024-05-01",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-24",
      "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20251012082439/https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK448087/",
      "calculation_notes": "The StatPearls reference establishes the US baseline of ~1,000 electrocution deaths per year and ~30,000 nonfatal electrical shock incidents annually. India's 9,606 deaths in a single year confirms that one large developing country alone approaches the entire US figure tenfold, supporting the global estimate of ~15,000 per year across countries with significant informal or unsafe wiring. The 5% US burn-unit admission figure, combined with developing-country rates up to 27% documented in the PMC peer-reviewed review, provides cross-validation for the order-of-magnitude scaling.\n"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5179293/",
      "title": "Review of adult electrical burn injury outcomes worldwide: An analysis of low-voltage versus high-voltage electrical injury",
      "publisher": "PMC / Burns",
      "source_type": "peer_reviewed",
      "statistic": "Electrical burn injuries constitute approximately 0.04-5% of burn unit admissions in developed countries and up to 27% in developing countries; 75% of injuries in the reviewed literature occurred in the workplace globally, but developing-country studies show predominant home-setting injuries",
      "excerpt": "\"Electrical injuries constitute approximately 0.04–5% of admissions to burn units in developed countries, and up to 27% in developing countries.\"\n",
      "source_date": "2016-12-01",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-24",
      "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20250826105753/https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5179293/",
      "calculation_notes": "This peer-reviewed systematic review of 41 publications documents the stark contrast between developed and developing countries in electrical burn admission rates (0.04-5% vs up to 27% of burn unit admissions). This 5-to-50-fold difference supports the extrapolation that per-capita electrocution risk is orders of magnitude higher in countries without enforced electrical codes. While the overall dataset shows 75% of injuries in workplace settings globally, this is heavily weighted toward high-income country studies where occupational injury predominates; community surveys in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa consistently show household wiring as the primary exposure context.\n"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.esfi.org/workplace-safety/workplace-injury-fatality-statistics/",
      "title": "Workplace Injury and Fatality Statistics",
      "publisher": "Electrical Safety Foundation International (ESFI)",
      "source_type": "reputable_reference",
      "statistic": "A total of 70,276 occupational fatalities occurred from all causes (2011-2024); 2,070 were due to contact with electricity, accounting for 5.6% of all workplace fatalities",
      "excerpt": "\"A total of 70,276 occupational fatalities occurred from all causes. 2,070 of these were due to contact with electricity. Electrical fatalities account for 5.6% of all workplace fatalities.\"\n",
      "source_date": "2024-01-01",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-24",
      "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20260412192407/https://www.esfi.org/workplace-safety/workplace-injury-fatality-statistics/",
      "calculation_notes": "Updated ESFI data (2011-2024) records 2,070 workplace electrocution deaths across 14 years, averaging ~148 per year — consistent with the ~150/year workplace figure referenced in earlier ESFI reports. Workplace deaths are a fraction of total US electrocution deaths; the StatPearls source documents ~1,000 total US deaths per year, implying the majority occur outside the occupational setting. The US occupational figure serves as a lower-bound check confirming that residential and non-occupational electrocutions are the majority of the total US toll, which supports the entry's framing as a household-wiring hazard.\n"
    }
  ],
  "comparison_anchors": [
    {
      "label": "Death from rabies via dog bite (lifetime, global adult)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.00069
    },
    {
      "label": "Death from lightning strike (lifetime, US)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.000065
    },
    {
      "label": "Death from house fire (lifetime, US)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.0025
    }
  ],
  "short_label": "Unsafe wiring",
  "myth_framing": "underrated",
  "outcome_severity": "fatal",
  "exposure_pattern": "recurring",
  "outcome_type": "death",
  "valence": "negative",
  "caveats": "The 15,000 global deaths estimate is a best-effort extrapolation from country-level data and carries substantial uncertainty. No single authoritative organization publishes a consolidated global electrocution death figure. India's 9,606 deaths in 2016 alone suggests that the true global toll could be higher than 15,000, particularly if deaths in informal settlements, rural areas, and countries without systematic mortality reporting are undercounted. For any adult living in a country with enforced electrical codes, mandatory ground-fault circuit interrupters, and licensed-electrician requirements (US, EU, Japan, Australia, and similar), personal electrocution risk from household wiring is far below the subgroup average. The entry is framed as subgroup_lifetime — scoped to the ~3 billion adults living in countries with significant informal or unsafe wiring — because the risk is driven by infrastructure quality rather than individual behavior, and infrastructure quality varies by orders of magnitude across countries.\n",
  "quality_score": {
    "d1": 3,
    "d2": 5,
    "d3": 5,
    "d4": 5,
    "d5": 5,
    "d6": 5,
    "d7": 4,
    "d8": 5,
    "avg": 4.625,
    "scored_by": "extracted-from-transcript",
    "scored_at": "2026-05-03",
    "methodology_version": "1.0"
  },
  "reviewer": "8d-eval-2026-05-16",
  "last_reviewed": "2026-05-16",
  "reviewed": true,
  "generated_at": "2026-04-24",
  "image": {
    "alt": "A flat vector illustration of a wall outlet with a loose wire beside it, rendered in muted tones against a pale background."
  },
  "attribution": "Likelier — https://likelier.app",
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/",
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}