{ "slug": "teen-suicide-attempt", "question": "What are the odds of a US teenager attempting suicide?", "category": "kids", "tags": [ "teen", "mental-health" ], "no_reliable_estimate": false, "perceived": { "description": "Most American parents dramatically underestimate how common suicide attempts are among teenagers. When the CDC reports that roughly one in ten high school students attempted suicide in the past year, the number lands as a shock — parents of teenagers tend to guess something closer to one in a hundred or one in several hundred, partly because attempts are far less visible than deaths and partly because teens who attempt rarely tell their parents. The cultural framing of teen suicide leans heavily on completed suicides (news stories, school assemblies after a death), which are about 25 times rarer than attempts in this age group. That asymmetry means the public mental model is anchored on the death rate (~7 per 100,000 for ages 15-19) rather than the attempt rate (~9,500 per 100,000), a gap of more than three orders of magnitude in the wrong direction.\n", "rough_estimate": "Most parents would guess far below 1 in 100 per year; the actual figure is roughly 1 in 10", "kind": "intuition" }, "native": { "display": "~9.5% of HS students attempted suicide in the past year (2023)", "numerator": 95, "denominator": 1000, "unit": "per year (high school students)", "population": "US high school students, grades 9-12 (2023 YRBS)" }, "normalized": { "lifetime_us_adult": 0.18, "display": "~1 in 6 across adolescence (ages 12-17)", "log_value": -0.745, "assumptions": "The YRBS 2023 reports a 9.5% past-year attempt prevalence among HS students (grades 9-12). The NSDUH 2023 reports a 3.3% past-year attempt prevalence among all adolescents aged 12-17. The NSDUH figure is lower because it includes younger teens (12-13) with lower rates and uses a household interview rather than a school-based anonymous survey. For a cumulative \"at least once during adolescence\" estimate, naively compounding the NSDUH rate over 6 years (ages 12-17) yields 1 - (1 - 0.033)^6 = 0.183, but this overstates cumulative incidence because many teen attempters are repeat attempters across years — the same individuals appear in multiple annual cross-sections. Conversely, the NSDUH rate likely undercounts single-occasion attempters due to household-interview social desirability bias. The two biases partially offset. We use 0.18 (~1 in 6) as the central estimate for the probability that a US adolescent attempts suicide at least once between ages 12 and 17. The scope is subgroup_lifetime because this applies only to the adolescent window, not the full adult lifespan.\n", "uncertainty": { "low": 0.12, "high": 0.25 }, "scope": "subgroup_lifetime" }, "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/73/su/su7304a9.htm", "title": "Mental Health and Suicide Risk Among High School Students and Protective Factors — Youth Risk Behavior Survey, United States, 2023", "publisher": "CDC MMWR Supplements (Ivey-Stephenson et al.)", "source_type": "govt_report", "statistic": "9.5% of US high school students attempted suicide in the past 12 months; 20.4% seriously considered it; 15.7% made a plan; female 13% vs male 6% attempted; LGBQ+ students 22% vs heterosexual 6%; transgender students 25.9%", "excerpt": "\"Overall, 20.4% seriously considered attempting suicide, and 9.5% had attempted suicide... The prevalence of mental health and suicide risk indicators was high across all demographic groups; however, prevalence was highest among female students and LGBQ+ students.\"\n", "source_date": "2024-10-24", "source_accessed": "2026-04-19", "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20260325154712/https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/73/su/su7304a9.htm", "calculation_notes": "The YRBS is a nationally representative, school-based, anonymous survey of US high school students conducted biennially by the CDC since 1991. In 2023, the survey captured approximately 20,000 students across grades 9-12. The 9.5% past-year attempt prevalence is the primary native rate. By sex: female students 13%, male students 6% (approximate 2:1 ratio). By sexual identity: LGBQ+ students 22%, heterosexual students 6% (approximate 3.7:1 ratio). Transgender students 25.9%, cisgender females 11.0%, cisgender males 5.3%. By race: Black students 10% (down from 14% in 2021), White students approximately 8%, Hispanic students approximately 10%. These are annual period-prevalence figures, not cumulative lifetime figures.\n" }, { "url": "https://www.samhsa.gov/data/sites/default/files/reports/rpt56770/2024-nsduh-psr6-adol-mde-suicide.pdf", "title": "2023 NSDUH Population Statistics Report: Adolescent Major Depressive Episodes and Suicidal Thoughts and Behaviors", "publisher": "Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA)", "source_type": "govt_report", "statistic": "3.2 million adolescents aged 12-17 (12.3%) had serious thoughts of suicide in 2023; 856,000 (3.3%) attempted suicide; 4.5 million (18.1%) had a major depressive episode", "excerpt": "\"In 2023, among adolescents aged 12 to 17, 3.2 million (or 12.3 percent) had serious thoughts of suicide... nearly half of those who had serious thoughts of suicide made suicide plans or attempted suicide, or both.\"\n", "source_date": "2024-08-01", "source_accessed": "2026-04-19", "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20260116034915/https://www.samhsa.gov/data/sites/default/files/reports/rpt56770/2024-nsduh-psr6-adol-mde-suicide.pdf", "calculation_notes": "NSDUH is a household-interview survey of approximately 70,000 persons aged 12+, conducted annually by SAMHSA. The 3.3% past-year attempt rate among 12-17 year-olds is lower than the YRBS 9.5% for several reasons: (1) NSDUH includes younger adolescents (12-13) with lower rates; (2) household interview format introduces social desirability bias (teen answers with parent potentially nearby); (3) the YRBS school-based anonymous questionnaire elicits higher self-report of sensitive behaviors. Both surveys are nationally representative. The NSDUH figure is used for the cumulative adolescence estimate because it covers the full 12-17 age range rather than the 14-18 high-school window.\n", "independence_note": "Fully independent of the YRBS. Different sampling frame (household vs school), different survey instrument, different administering agency (SAMHSA vs CDC).\n" }, { "url": "https://publications.aap.org/pediatrics/article/153/1/e2023064800/196189/Suicide-and-Suicide-Risk-in-Adolescents", "title": "Suicide and Suicide Risk in Adolescents", "publisher": "Pediatrics (American Academy of Pediatrics, Shain et al. 2024)", "source_type": "peer_reviewed", "statistic": "AAP clinical report summarising epidemiology, risk factors, and screening recommendations for adolescent suicidality; notes suicide as the second leading cause of death for ages 10-34 and documents the attempt-to-death ratio of approximately 25:1 in adolescents", "excerpt": "\"Suicide was the second leading cause of death among individuals between the ages of 10 and 34.\"\n", "source_date": "2024-01-01", "source_accessed": "2026-04-19", "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20240718202408/https://publications.aap.org/pediatrics/article/153/1/e2023064800/196189/Suicide-and-Suicide-Risk-in-Adolescents", "calculation_notes": "The AAP clinical report provides the clinical and epidemiological framing for adolescent suicidality. It corroborates the YRBS and NSDUH figures and situates the attempt rate in the context of the attempt-to-death ratio (~25:1 in adolescents, compared to ~4:1 in older adults). This ratio is used in the body text for context. The AAP report does not provide independent incidence data but synthesises the CDC and SAMHSA sources with clinical literature on risk factors, screening tools (PHQ-A, Columbia Protocol), and lethal means restriction.\n", "independence_note": "Review article synthesising CDC and SAMHSA data with clinical literature. Not an independent data source for the headline prevalence figure.\n" }, { "url": "https://www.thetrevorproject.org/survey-2024/", "title": "2024 U.S. National Survey on the Mental Health of LGBTQ+ Young People", "publisher": "The Trevor Project", "source_type": "reputable_reference", "statistic": "12% of LGBTQ+ youth aged 13-24 attempted suicide in the past year (2024 survey of 18,000+ respondents); 46% of transgender and nonbinary youth seriously considered attempting suicide", "excerpt": "\"More than one in ten LGBTQ+ young people attempted suicide in the past year.\"\n", "source_date": "2024-04-01", "source_accessed": "2026-04-19", "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20260513184025/https://www.thetrevorproject.org/survey-2024/", "calculation_notes": "The Trevor Project survey is a large convenience sample (not probability-based) of LGBTQ+ youth aged 13-24 recruited online. The 12% past-year attempt rate is broadly consistent with the YRBS finding that 22% of LGBQ+ high school students attempted suicide — the Trevor Project figure is lower because it includes older youth (18-24) with lower attempt rates. The convenience-sample design may introduce selection bias in either direction. This source is included to document the LGBTQ+ disparity with the largest available sample, not as an independent prevalence estimate. The 50-state report released in March 2025 provided state-level breakdowns of these figures.\n", "independence_note": "Fully independent of CDC YRBS and SAMHSA NSDUH. Different survey instrument, different sampling frame (online convenience sample of LGBTQ+ youth vs probability-based surveys of all youth).\n" } ], "comparison_anchors": [ { "label": "Suicide death (lifetime, US adult)", "lifetime_us_adult": 0.00827 }, { "label": "Drug overdose death (lifetime)", "lifetime_us_adult": 0.014 } ], "regional_breakdown": [ { "region": "Female HS students", "probability": 0.13, "notes": "Past-year attempt rate, YRBS 2023" }, { "region": "Male HS students", "probability": 0.06, "notes": "Past-year attempt rate, YRBS 2023" }, { "region": "LGBQ+ HS students", "probability": 0.22, "notes": "Past-year attempt rate, YRBS 2023" }, { "region": "Transgender HS students", "probability": 0.259, "notes": "Past-year attempt rate, YRBS 2023" }, { "region": "Black HS students", "probability": 0.1, "notes": "Past-year attempt rate, YRBS 2023; down from 14% in 2021" }, { "region": "Heterosexual HS students", "probability": 0.06, "notes": "Past-year attempt rate, YRBS 2023" } ], "personal_factor_multipliers": [ { "factor": "Female (vs overall)", "multiplier": 1.37, "notes": "13% vs 9.5% overall; YRBS 2023" }, { "factor": "Male (vs overall)", "multiplier": 0.63, "notes": "6% vs 9.5% overall; YRBS 2023" }, { "factor": "LGBQ+ (vs heterosexual)", "multiplier": 3.67, "notes": "22% vs 6%; YRBS 2023" }, { "factor": "Transgender (vs cisgender male)", "multiplier": 4.89, "notes": "25.9% vs 5.3%; YRBS 2023" }, { "factor": "History of prior attempt", "multiplier": 3, "notes": "Prior attempt is the strongest single predictor of future attempt; AAP 2024 clinical report" } ], "short_label": "Teen suicide attempt", "myth_framing": "underrated", "outcome_severity": "serious_harm", "exposure_pattern": "recurring", "outcome_type": "mental_trauma", "valence": "negative", "caveats": "The YRBS and NSDUH use different methodologies, populations, and definitions, which is why their headline numbers differ (9.5% vs 3.3%). Neither survey verifies self-reported attempts against medical records — some reported \"attempts\" may be better classified as non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI), and some genuine attempts go unreported even on anonymous surveys. The cumulative adolescence figure (0.18) is an estimate, not a directly measured quantity; no US survey tracks the same cohort of adolescents longitudinally with annual attempt assessment, so the true cumulative incidence is uncertain. The 2023 YRBS showed modest improvement from the 2021 peak for several indicators — the percentage of students who seriously considered attempting suicide fell from 22% to 20%, and Black student attempt rates fell from 14% to 10% — but levels remain historically elevated compared to the 2009-2013 baseline. All figures are self-report and subject to recall bias, social desirability effects, and definitional ambiguity about what constitutes an \"attempt.\"\n", "quality_score": { "d1": 5, "d2": 5, "d3": 4, "d4": 5, "d5": 5, "d6": 5, "d7": 4, "d8": 5, "avg": 4.75, "scored_by": "claude-code-8d", "scored_at": "2026-05-25", "methodology_version": "1.2" }, "reviewer": "quality-review-agent", "last_reviewed": "2026-04-19", "reviewed": true, "generated_at": "2026-04-19", "image": { "alt": "An empty school hallway with sunlight streaming through windows, symbolizing the quiet prevalence of teen mental health struggles" }, "attribution": "Likelier — https://likelier.app", "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/", "support": "https://buymeacoffee.com/kgluszczyk?via=likelier&utm_content=api-fear-single", "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/teen-suicide-attempt" }