{
  "slug": "stalking-persistence",
  "question": "What are the lifetime odds of being stalked?",
  "category": "crime",
  "tags": [
    "relationships"
  ],
  "no_reliable_estimate": false,
  "perceived": {
    "description": "Stalking occupies a peculiar position in public risk perception. It is simultaneously the subject of intense media dramatization — the obsessed stranger, the celebrity fan, the ex who will not stop — and widespread trivialization in everyday life, where persistent unwanted contact is often reframed as romantic persistence, harmless attention-seeking, or a private matter between former partners. Most people do not consider themselves likely targets. Survey data on perceived personal stalking risk are essentially nonexistent; the concept itself was not codified in US criminal law until California's 1990 anti-stalking statute, and public understanding of what constitutes stalking remains inconsistent.\n",
    "kind": "intuition"
  },
  "native": {
    "display": "~22.5% of women and ~9.7% of men have experienced stalking in their lifetime (CDC NISVS 2023/2024)",
    "numerator": 162,
    "denominator": 1000,
    "unit": "lifetime prevalence (combined-sex weighted average)",
    "population": "US adults aged 18+, NISVS nationally representative survey"
  },
  "normalized": {
    "lifetime_us_adult": 0.162,
    "display": "~1 in 6 US adults experience stalking in a lifetime",
    "log_value": -0.79,
    "assumptions": "CDC NISVS 2023/2024 Stalking Data Brief reports lifetime stalking prevalence of 22.5% for women (28.8 million) and 9.7% for men (11.9 million). The 2023/2024 cycle used revised stalking measurement and data collection methodology; the CDC explicitly cautions against comparing these figures to earlier NISVS waves (2011, 2016/2017) due to these methodological changes. Weighted combined-sex average using US census sex ratio (51.1% F / 48.9% M): 0.511 × 0.225 + 0.489 × 0.097 ≈ 0.1624, rounded to 0.162. This is a directly measured lifetime prevalence, not an annual-rate extrapolation. The BJS Supplemental Victimization Survey (2019) independently estimated 1.3% annual stalking prevalence (3.4 million victims), which over a 59-year adult life yields a rough lifetime estimate consistent with the NISVS figure. Uncertainty band: low end uses the BJS annual-rate extrapolation (~12%); high end reflects the upper range of state-level NISVS estimates and broader stalking definitions that capture lower-severity persistent contact (~30% combined-sex); low end uses narrower legal-threshold definitions consistent with BJS/NCVS survey instruments (~8% combined-sex).\n",
    "uncertainty": {
      "low": 0.08,
      "high": 0.3
    },
    "scope": "us_adult_lifetime"
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.cdc.gov/nisvs/media/pdfs/stalking-brief.pdf",
      "title": "National Intimate Partner and Sexual Violence Survey: 2023/2024 Stalking Data Brief",
      "publisher": "Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)",
      "source_type": "govt_report",
      "statistic": "22.5% of women and 9.7% of men experienced stalking in their lifetime",
      "excerpt": "\"More than 1 in 5 women (22.5% or an estimated 28.8 million) in the United States have experienced stalking during their lifetimes. Approximately 1 in 10 men (9.7% or about 11.9 million) in the United States have experienced stalking in their lifetimes.\"\n",
      "source_date": "2025-01-01",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-29",
      "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20260511105452/https://www.cdc.gov/nisvs/media/pdfs/stalking-brief.pdf",
      "calculation_notes": "Primary lifetime stalking prevalence from NISVS 2023/2024. Women: 22.5%, men: 9.7%. Combined-sex weighted average: 0.511 × 0.225 + 0.489 × 0.097 ≈ 0.1624 → 0.162. Used directly as lifetime_us_adult. The CDC cautions against comparing to earlier NISVS waves due to revised stalking measurement and methodology changes.\n"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://bjs.ojp.gov/content/pub/pdf/sv19.pdf",
      "title": "Stalking Victimization, 2019",
      "publisher": "Bureau of Justice Statistics (DOJ)",
      "source_type": "govt_report",
      "statistic": "1.3% of persons age 16+ were stalked in 2019 (approximately 3.4 million victims)",
      "excerpt": "\"About 1.3% (3.4 million) of all persons age 16 or older were victims of stalking in 2019. The percentage of persons who experienced stalking declined from 1.5% in 2016 to 1.3% in 2019.\"\n",
      "source_date": "2022-03-01",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-29",
      "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20260507024602/https://bjs.ojp.gov/content/pub/pdf/sv19.pdf",
      "calculation_notes": "BJS annual prevalence from the NCVS Supplemental Victimization Survey. Independent from the CDC NISVS (different survey instrument, different definition threshold). The 1.3% annual rate over a 59-year adult life yields a rough lifetime estimate of 1 − (1 − 0.013)^59 ≈ 0.54, but this overstates true lifetime prevalence because stalking victimization is not independent across years. The NISVS directly measured lifetime prevalence of 16.2% (combined-sex) is more reliable for the lifetime figure.\n",
      "independence_note": "BJS uses the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), methodologically independent from the CDC's NISVS. Different sampling frame, different questionnaire, different stalking definition threshold. Cross-validation strengthens confidence in the order of magnitude.\n"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1088767999003004003",
      "title": "Stalking and Intimate Partner Femicide",
      "publisher": "Homicide Studies (SAGE)",
      "source_type": "peer_reviewed",
      "statistic": "76% of femicide victims and 85% of attempted femicide victims were stalked by their intimate partner",
      "excerpt": "\"The prevalence of stalking was 76% for femicide victims and 85% for attempted femicide victims. Incidence of intimate partner assault was 67% for femicide victims and 71% for attempted femicide victims.\"\n",
      "source_date": "1999-11-01",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-29",
      "archive_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260525162555/https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1088767999003004003",
      "calculation_notes": "McFarlane, Campbell et al. (1999) used an 18-item stalking inventory and personal interviews to describe intimate partner stalking within 12 months of attempted and actual partner femicide, covering 141 femicide and 65 attempted femicide incidents. The 76% figure applies to completed femicide; the 85% figure applies to attempted femicide. These are distinct populations and the figures should not be conflated.\n"
    }
  ],
  "comparison_anchors": [
    {
      "label": "Sexual assault (lifetime, US adult, contact)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.34
    },
    {
      "label": "Home burglary (lifetime, US household)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.11
    },
    {
      "label": "Homicide (lifetime, US adult)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.00348
    }
  ],
  "short_label": "Stalking",
  "myth_framing": "underrated",
  "outcome_severity": "serious_harm",
  "exposure_pattern": "recurring",
  "outcome_type": "mental_trauma",
  "valence": "negative",
  "caveats": "The 2023/2024 NISVS used revised stalking measurement and data collection methodology; the CDC explicitly cautions against comparing these findings to earlier NISVS waves (2011, 2016/2017). The higher 2023/2024 figures may reflect improved measurement rather than a true increase in prevalence. The sex disparity (~2.3:1 female-to-male ratio) is present but narrower than in earlier waves, which may partly reflect changes in survey methodology, differential willingness to report, and differential thresholds for feeling fearful. Roughly two-thirds of female stalking victims are stalked by a current or former intimate partner, not a stranger — a pattern that contradicts the dominant media archetype. Technology-facilitated stalking (GPS tracking, social media monitoring, spyware) is increasingly prevalent; the 2023/2024 brief reports technology- facilitated tactics affected 16-29% of victims. The stalking-to-homicide pipeline is well-documented: McFarlane et al. (1999) found that 76% of intimate-partner femicide victims were stalked by their killer in the year before their death, and 85% of attempted femicide victims were stalked (these are distinct populations).\n",
  "quality_score": {
    "d1": 4,
    "d2": 5,
    "d3": 5,
    "d4": 5,
    "d5": 5,
    "d6": 5,
    "d7": 4,
    "d8": 5,
    "avg": 4.75,
    "scored_by": "extracted-from-transcript",
    "scored_at": "2026-05-16",
    "methodology_version": "1.0"
  },
  "reviewer": "8d-eval-2026-05-16",
  "last_reviewed": "2026-05-16",
  "reviewed": true,
  "generated_at": "2026-04-24",
  "image": {
    "alt": "A long shadow stretching across an empty sidewalk, flat vector editorial illustration, muted palette."
  },
  "attribution": "Likelier — https://likelier.app",
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/",
  "support": "https://buymeacoffee.com/kgluszczyk?via=likelier&utm_content=api-fear-single",
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}