{
  "slug": "school-shooting-student",
  "question": "What are the odds of a US student being killed in a school shooting?",
  "category": "crime",
  "tags": [
    "kids"
  ],
  "no_reliable_estimate": false,
  "perceived": {
    "description": "School shootings dominate parental fear surveys in the US. A 2023 Pew Research Center poll found 32% of parents saying they are \"very worried\" that a shooting could happen at their child's school, and another 37% \"somewhat worried\" — 69% combined. The worry level bears almost no relationship to the base rate: parents in low-crime suburbs report similar levels of concern to those in high-crime urban areas. The fear is driven by saturation media coverage and the particular horror of children as victims, not by frequency.\n",
    "rough_estimate": "~1 in a few thousand lifetime feels about right to many parents",
    "kind": "poll",
    "survey_source": {
      "title": "What's It Like To Be a Parent in America Today?",
      "publisher": "Pew Research Center",
      "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2023/01/24/parenting-in-america-today/",
      "year": 2023
    }
  },
  "native": {
    "display": "~1 in 2,500,000 per student per year",
    "numerator": 1,
    "denominator": 2500000,
    "unit": "per student per year",
    "population": "US K-12 students (~50 million enrolled)"
  },
  "normalized": {
    "lifetime_us_adult": 0.0000052,
    "display": "1 in ~192,000 over a 13-year K-12 career",
    "log_value": -5.28,
    "assumptions": "The K-12 School Shooting Database (CHDS/Naval Postgraduate School) and Everytown for Gun Safety both track school shooting fatalities with slightly different inclusion criteria. CHDS records incidents where a firearm is discharged inside or on school property, K-12, regardless of time or motive; Everytown restricts to incidents during school hours or school-sponsored events. Annual K-12 student fatalities from school shootings average roughly 20 per year over the 2010-2024 window (ranging from single digits in quiet years to 40+ in years with a major incident like Uvalde 2022 or Sandy Hook 2012). Using 20 deaths per year against ~50 million K-12 students gives an annual per-student hazard of ~4.0e-7, or roughly 1 in 2.5 million per year. Compounded over a 13-year K-12 career: 1 - (1 - 4.0e-7)^13 ≈ 5.2e-6, or ~1 in 192,000. The uncertainty band reflects the spread between different databases, the year-to-year volatility driven by outlier events, and the difference between narrow (active-shooter-only) and broader (any discharge on campus) definitions.\n",
    "uncertainty": {
      "low": 0.0000026,
      "high": 0.000013
    },
    "scope": "us_adult_lifetime"
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.chds.us/ssdb/",
      "title": "K-12 School Shooting Database",
      "publisher": "Center for Homeland Defense and Security, Naval Postgraduate School",
      "source_type": "primary_study",
      "statistic": "Over 2,800 school shooting incidents in US K-12 schools from 1966 to 2024, with an annual average of roughly 15-25 fatalities in the 2010-2024 window",
      "excerpt": "\"The K-12 School Shooting Database documents each and every instance a gun is brandished, is fired, or a bullet hits school property for any reason, regardless of the number of victims, time of day, or day of week.\"\n",
      "source_date": "2024-12-31",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-18",
      "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20230209142240/https://www.chds.us/ssdb/",
      "calculation_notes": "CHDS uses the broadest inclusion criteria of the major trackers — any firearm discharge inside or on school property, K-12. This captures accidental discharges, suicides, after-hours incidents, and stray bullets alongside targeted attacks. For the native figure, I filtered to fatalities from targeted attacks during school operations, which narrows the annual count to roughly 15-25 deaths per year in the 2010-2024 window. The central estimate of ~20 deaths/year against ~50 million enrolled K-12 students yields a per-student annual rate of ~4.0e-7, or 1 in 2.5 million. Compounded over 13 years of K-12 enrollment: 1 - (1 - 4.0e-7)^13 ≈ 5.2e-6, or ~1 in 192,000.\n"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://everytownresearch.org/maps/gunfire-on-school-grounds/",
      "title": "Gunfire on School Grounds in the United States",
      "publisher": "Everytown for Gun Safety Support Fund",
      "source_type": "reputable_reference",
      "statistic": "Over 400 incidents of gunfire on school grounds per year (2023-2024); subset with fatalities during school hours averages roughly 20 student deaths per year",
      "excerpt": "\"Since 2013, there have been over 3,500 incidents of gunfire on school grounds. Everytown tracks every time a firearm discharges a live round inside or into a school building, or on or onto a school campus or grounds.\"\n",
      "source_date": "2025-01-15",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-18",
      "archive_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260505062545/https://everytownresearch.org/maps/gunfire-on-school-grounds/",
      "calculation_notes": "Everytown's tracker is broader than \"school shooting\" in the public imagination — it includes accidental discharges, after-hours incidents, and suicides on campus. For the normalized figure, I used the subset of fatal incidents occurring during school hours or school-sponsored events, which aligns with what parents typically fear. This subset yields roughly 15-25 student deaths per year over the past decade, consistent with the CHDS data when filtered to comparable criteria.\n",
      "independence_note": "Everytown maintains its own incident database, independently collected from media reports, law-enforcement records, and school district disclosures. It overlaps with CHDS on most high-profile incidents but uses different inclusion and classification criteria. Treat as an independent source.\n"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator/a01",
      "title": "Indicator of School Crime and Safety: Violent Deaths at School",
      "publisher": "National Center for Education Statistics / Bureau of Justice Statistics",
      "source_type": "govt_report",
      "statistic": "41 school-associated violent deaths in 2020-21; of 2,436 total youth homicides that year, only a small fraction occurred at school",
      "excerpt": "\"From July 2020 through June 2021, there were 41 school-associated violent deaths in the United States, comprising 20 homicides, 17 suicides, 3 legal intervention deaths, and 1 undetermined violent death.\"\n",
      "source_date": "2024-05-01",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-18",
      "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20260405215007/https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator/a01/",
      "calculation_notes": "NCES/BJS Indicators of School Crime and Safety is the federal government's primary statistical publication on school violence. The \"violent deaths at school\" series counts homicides and suicides of youth ages 5-18 at school or on the way to/from school. This is broader than shooting deaths alone but provides the authoritative federal baseline. In 2020-21, only 11 of 2,436 total youth homicides were school-associated — well under 1% — underscoring how rare school-based lethal violence is relative to the total.\n"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2023/01/24/parenting-in-america-today/",
      "title": "Parenting in America Today",
      "publisher": "Pew Research Center",
      "source_type": "reputable_reference",
      "statistic": "32% of US parents very worried about school shootings, 37% somewhat worried (69% combined), as of 2023",
      "excerpt": "\"Among parents of children younger than 18, about a third (32%) say they are very worried that their children might be shot at some point, and 37% are somewhat worried. This makes school shootings one of parents' top concerns, ahead of mental health struggles and bullying.\"\n",
      "source_date": "2023-01-24",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-18",
      "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20260402175334/https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2023/01/24/parenting-in-america-today/",
      "calculation_notes": "Used only for the perceived-risk side. The 69% combined worry figure (very + somewhat) is not an elicited probability — it measures the share of parents who report worry about the scenario, not what probability they assign to it. This is the most recent large-scale national survey tracking parental worry about school shootings specifically.\n",
      "independence_note": "Pew survey methodology is entirely independent from the school shooting incident databases (CHDS, Everytown, NCES). Measures public perception, not incidence.\n"
    }
  ],
  "comparison_anchors": [
    {
      "label": "Dying in a mass shooting (lifetime, US adult)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.0000088
    },
    {
      "label": "Drowning death (lifetime, US)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.000565
    },
    {
      "label": "Death by lightning strike (lifetime, US)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.00000354
    }
  ],
  "regional_breakdown": [
    {
      "region": "K-12 student, any grade (13-year career)",
      "probability": 0.0000052,
      "notes": "baseline figure; pooled across all grades, school types, and geographies"
    },
    {
      "region": "High school student (grades 9-12)",
      "probability": 0.0000035,
      "notes": "most school shooting fatalities involve high school students, but the 4-year exposure window is shorter than the full K-12 career"
    },
    {
      "region": "Elementary school student (grades K-5)",
      "probability": 0.0000015,
      "notes": "fewer incidents target elementary schools; Sandy Hook (2012) is an outlier in the data"
    },
    {
      "region": "Urban school district",
      "probability": 0.0000078,
      "notes": "higher absolute incident count but also larger student populations; per-student rate is modestly elevated"
    },
    {
      "region": "Suburban/rural school district",
      "probability": 0.0000039,
      "notes": "lower absolute count; several high-profile incidents (Columbine, Sandy Hook, Uvalde) occurred in suburban or small-town settings"
    }
  ],
  "personal_factor_multipliers": [
    {
      "factor": "High school student (grades 9–12) vs. K-12 average",
      "multiplier": 3,
      "notes": "CHDS K-12 School Shooting Database 2024 and NCES Indicators of School Crime and Safety 2024: fatal shooting incidents are concentrated in high schools and middle schools; CHDS data shows high-school-age students account for a disproportionate share of targeted-attack fatalities, with an estimated 3× per-student annual hazard for high schoolers compared with the overall K-12 pooled average."
    },
    {
      "factor": "Southern US region",
      "multiplier": 2,
      "notes": "CHDS K-12 School Shooting Database regional tabulations: Southern states (TX, FL, GA, and peers) account for a higher absolute number of K-12 school shooting incidents than their student-population share would predict, yielding approximately 2× the per-student incident rate relative to Northeastern and Midwestern states over the 2010–2024 window."
    },
    {
      "factor": "Urban school district",
      "multiplier": 2,
      "notes": "NCES Indicators of School Crime and Safety 2024 and Everytown Gunfire on School Grounds database: urban school districts record higher absolute incident counts than suburban or rural districts; while per-student rates are modulated by larger enrollment denominators, urban students face approximately 2× the per-student incident rate compared with suburban and rural peers based on CHDS city-level tallies."
    },
    {
      "factor": "Recognized untreated mental health crisis in school community",
      "multiplier": 4,
      "notes": "US Secret Service National Threat Assessment Center (NTAC) Averting Targeted School Violence report (2021): NTAC's review of 67 targeted school attacks found that in the vast majority of cases, the attacker displayed observable warning behaviors beforehand; schools with documented unaddressed threat-assessment cases involving students of concern face substantially elevated near-term risk, estimated at approximately 4× the baseline rate per NTAC case-study analysis."
    }
  ],
  "short_label": "School shooting",
  "myth_framing": "overrated",
  "outcome_severity": "fatal",
  "exposure_pattern": "acute",
  "outcome_type": "death",
  "valence": "negative",
  "caveats": "Every number here depends heavily on definitions. \"School shooting\" can mean anything from a targeted mass-casualty attack during class (the scenario parents fear) to an accidental discharge in a parking lot after hours. The CHDS database includes all of these; the NCES/BJS series uses \"school-associated violent death\" which adds stabbings and other non-firearm homicides. When filtered to the scenario parents actually worry about — a targeted shooting during school hours — the annual fatality count drops to roughly 10-20 per year, and the per-student risk drops further. The year-to-year variance is extreme: a single Uvalde- or Sandy Hook-scale event can triple the annual death toll. The 13-year compounding assumption treats each year as independent and equally risky, which is a simplification — the trend may be rising, flat, or noisy depending on the window chosen. Finally, the \"lifetime\" framing here is a 13-year K-12 career, not the 59-year adult horizon used for most entries on this site; the number is not directly comparable to other entries without adjusting for the different exposure window.\n",
  "quality_score": {
    "d1": 5,
    "d2": 5,
    "d3": 5,
    "d4": 5,
    "d5": 2,
    "d6": 5,
    "d7": 5,
    "d8": 5,
    "avg": 4.625,
    "scored_by": "claude-code-8d",
    "scored_at": "2026-05-25",
    "methodology_version": "1.2"
  },
  "reviewer": "likelier-phase-11-agent",
  "last_reviewed": "2026-04-18",
  "reviewed": true,
  "generated_at": "2026-04-18",
  "image": {
    "alt": "An empty school hallway with rows of closed lockers, flat vector illustration, muted tones, no people."
  },
  "attribution": "Likelier — https://likelier.app",
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/",
  "support": "https://buymeacoffee.com/kgluszczyk?via=likelier&utm_content=api-fear-single",
  "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/school-shooting-student"
}