{
  "slug": "school-bullying",
  "question": "What are the odds of a child being bullied at school?",
  "category": "other",
  "tags": [
    "kids"
  ],
  "no_reliable_estimate": false,
  "perceived": {
    "description": "Parental estimates of school bullying vary more than almost any other childhood risk. Some parents treat it as a near-universal rite of passage and assume every child will face it; others believe their child's school is essentially bully-free. Media coverage oscillates between moral panic (every school is a warzone) and reassurance (anti-bullying programs have solved it). When pressed for a number, most adults guess somewhere between 10% and 50%, a range wide enough to be almost uninformative. The lack of a stable public anchor makes this an unusually noisy perception.\n",
    "rough_estimate": "~1 in 3 to 1 in 5 children, intuitively",
    "kind": "intuition"
  },
  "native": {
    "display": "~19% of US students ages 12-18 reported being bullied at school (NCES 2022)",
    "numerator": 19,
    "denominator": 100,
    "unit": "per school year",
    "population": "US students ages 12-18 enrolled in grades 6-12"
  },
  "normalized": {
    "lifetime_us_adult": 0.65,
    "display": "~65% probability of being bullied at least once during grades 6-12",
    "log_value": -0.19,
    "assumptions": "The NCES School Crime Supplement (2022) reports 19.2% of students ages 12-18 experienced bullying at school in the survey year. The CDC NCHS Data Brief 514 (October 2024), using National Health Interview Survey data from July 2021 to December 2023, found a higher figure: 34.0% of teenagers ages 12-17 were bullied in the past 12 months. Using the more conservative NCES annual rate of ~19% and compounding over 7 school years (grades 6-12): 1 - (1 - 0.19)^7 = 0.75. Using the YRBS high-school-only rate of ~19% for grades 9-12 and the NCES middle-school rate of ~26% for grades 6-8, a weighted compound gives ~0.72. However, bullying episodes are not fully independent year to year — some children are persistently targeted while others are never targeted. Adjusting downward for this clustering effect (correlation between years), a central estimate of ~0.65 is used. The NCHS figure of 34% per year would yield a much higher lifetime estimate (~0.95), but that survey uses a broader definition including verbal teasing that may not meet the NCES threshold.\n",
    "uncertainty": {
      "low": 0.45,
      "high": 0.85
    },
    "scope": "subgroup_lifetime"
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "url": "https://nces.ed.gov/pubs2024/2024109.pdf",
      "title": "Student Reports of Bullying: Results From the 2022 School Crime Supplement to the National Crime Victimization Survey",
      "publisher": "National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), U.S. Department of Education",
      "source_type": "govt_report",
      "statistic": "About 19% of students ages 12-18 reported being bullied at school during the 2021-22 school year; 26% in middle school, 16% in high school",
      "excerpt": "\"In 2021-22, about 19 percent of students ages 12-18 reported being bullied during school. The percentage was higher for female students than for male students (22 vs. 17 percent) and higher for middle school students (26 percent) than high school students (16 percent).\"\n",
      "source_date": "2024-02-01",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-19",
      "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20260405214740/https://nces.ed.gov/pubs2024/2024109.pdf",
      "calculation_notes": "The School Crime Supplement (SCS) to the National Crime Victimization Survey is the gold-standard US measure. It surveys ~5,800 students ages 12-18 biennially. The 19% figure is the native estimate. Types of bullying: being made fun of, called names, or insulted (12%); subject of rumors (10%); pushed, shoved, tripped, or spit on (5%); excluded from activities on purpose (5%); threatened with harm (4%). Among those bullied, 32% experienced it on 1 day, 18% on 2 days, 31% on 3-10 days, and 18% on more than 10 days in the school year.\n"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db514.pdf",
      "title": "Bullying Victimization Among Teenagers: United States, July 2021-December 2023",
      "publisher": "National Center for Health Statistics, CDC",
      "source_type": "govt_report",
      "statistic": "34.0% of teenagers ages 12-17 were bullied in the past 12 months; 38.4% for ages 12-14, 29.7% for ages 15-17",
      "excerpt": "\"During July 2021-December 2023, 34.0% of teenagers ages 12-17 were bullied in the past 12 months. The percentage was higher among younger teenagers ages 12-14 (38.4%) than among teenagers ages 15-17 (29.7%). Sexual or gender minority teenagers were more likely to be bullied (47.1%) than teenagers who are not a sexual or gender minority (30.0%).\"\n",
      "source_date": "2024-10-01",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-19",
      "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20260318190346/https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db514.pdf",
      "calculation_notes": "NCHS Data Brief 514 uses National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) data pooled over 2.5 years. The 34% figure is substantially higher than the NCES 19% because the NHIS uses a broader definition of bullying (parent- or self-report, includes verbal teasing that may not meet the SCS behavioral threshold). The NHIS also captures younger teens (12-14) who have higher victimization rates. The subgroup figures are critical for the personal factor multipliers: girls 38.3% vs boys 29.9%, SGM teens 47.1% vs non-SGM 30.0%, teens with developmental disability 44.4% vs without 31.3%.\n"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.cdc.gov/yrbs/dstr/pdf/YRBS-2023-Data-Summary-Trend-Report.pdf",
      "title": "Youth Risk Behavior Survey Data Summary & Trends Report 2013-2023",
      "publisher": "Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)",
      "source_type": "govt_report",
      "statistic": "In 2023, 19% of US high school students reported being bullied on school property in the past year, up from 15% in 2021",
      "excerpt": "\"The percentage of high school students who reported being bullied on school property was 19.0% in 2023, compared with 15.2% in 2021. Female students (22%) were more likely than male students (17%) to report being bullied at school.\"\n",
      "source_date": "2024-06-01",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-19",
      "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20260331022136/https://www.cdc.gov/yrbs/dstr/pdf/YRBS-2023-Data-Summary-Trend-Report.pdf",
      "calculation_notes": "The YRBS is a biennial survey of ~17,000 high school students (grades 9-12). The 2023 figure of 19% aligns with the NCES SCS figure for the same age group. The increase from 15% in 2021 is notable and may reflect post-pandemic social adjustment. YRBS also reports that 29% of LGB students were bullied at school, compared to approximately 17% of heterosexual students (roughly 1.7x multiplier). This source corroborates the NCES data and provides the trend context.\n",
      "independence_note": "YRBS and SCS are independently administered surveys with different sampling frames; convergence on ~19% for high schoolers strengthens confidence in the native estimate.\n"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000366486",
      "title": "Behind the Numbers: Ending School Violence and Bullying",
      "publisher": "UNESCO",
      "source_type": "reputable_reference",
      "statistic": "Almost 1 in 3 students (32%) worldwide has been bullied by peers at school at least once in the last month",
      "excerpt": "\"Almost one in three students (32%) has been bullied by their peers at school at least once in the last month and a similar proportion are affected by physical violence. Bullying has decreased in almost half of the 71 countries and territories studied.\"\n",
      "source_date": "2019-01-01",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-19",
      "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20250222150233/https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000366486",
      "calculation_notes": "UNESCO's global figure of 32% (past month) is substantially higher than the US annual figures because it includes countries with less developed anti-bullying infrastructure and uses a past-month reporting window. This source provides the global context and establishes that US rates, while concerning, are below the global average. Physical bullying is more common outside North America and Europe, where psychological bullying predominates.\n",
      "independence_note": "UNESCO draws on HBSC, GSHS, PIRLS, and TIMSS data — survey instruments independent from US-administered NCES SCS and CDC YRBS.\n"
    }
  ],
  "comparison_anchors": [
    {
      "label": "Workplace bullying (lifetime, US adult)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.48
    },
    {
      "label": "Cyberbullying victimization (past year, US teens)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.16
    },
    {
      "label": "Experiencing violent crime (lifetime, US adult)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.25
    }
  ],
  "regional_breakdown": [
    {
      "region": "Middle school (grades 6-8)",
      "probability": 0.26,
      "notes": "Peak bullying age; NCES SCS 2022 reports 26% for this group"
    },
    {
      "region": "High school (grades 9-12)",
      "probability": 0.16,
      "notes": "NCES SCS 2022; YRBS 2023 reports 19% for a slightly different question"
    },
    {
      "region": "Global average (past month)",
      "probability": 0.32,
      "notes": "UNESCO 2019; includes physical and psychological bullying"
    }
  ],
  "personal_factor_multipliers": [
    {
      "factor": "LGBTQ+ student",
      "multiplier": 1.6,
      "notes": "NCHS Data Brief 514: SGM teens 47.1% vs non-SGM 30.0%; YRBS reports LGB students ~1.7x more likely to be bullied at school"
    },
    {
      "factor": "Student with developmental disability",
      "multiplier": 1.4,
      "notes": "NCHS Data Brief 514: 44.4% vs 31.3% for teens without developmental disability; other studies report 2-3x for specific conditions like ASD"
    },
    {
      "factor": "Middle school age (11-14)",
      "multiplier": 1.3,
      "notes": "NCHS: 38.4% for ages 12-14 vs 29.7% for ages 15-17; NCES: 26% middle school vs 16% high school"
    },
    {
      "factor": "Female student",
      "multiplier": 1.2,
      "notes": "NCES: 22% vs 17%; NCHS: 38.3% vs 29.9%; gender gap is consistent across surveys"
    }
  ],
  "short_label": "School bullying",
  "myth_framing": "calibrated",
  "outcome_severity": "moderate_harm",
  "exposure_pattern": "recurring",
  "outcome_type": "mental_trauma",
  "valence": "negative",
  "caveats": "Prevalence estimates for school bullying range from 19% (NCES SCS, strict behavioral criteria) to 34% (NCHS NHIS, broader parent/self-report) to 32% globally (UNESCO, past month). The discrepancy is driven by definition thresholds, reporting windows, and whether the survey asks about specific behaviors or uses the word \"bullying\" (self-labeling produces lower estimates). The lifetime compound of ~65% assumes imperfect year-to-year independence; if bullying is highly clustered in a subset of chronically targeted children, the population-level \"ever bullied\" rate may be lower than simple compounding suggests, but the individual burden on those children is much higher. The entry covers in-person bullying only; cyberbullying is tracked separately. Severity varies enormously — the 19% includes everything from a single name-calling incident to sustained physical intimidation over an entire school year. The 2023 YRBS increase from 15% to 19% may reflect post-pandemic social re-adjustment rather than a secular trend, and should be interpreted cautiously until the next survey cycle confirms or reverses it.\n",
  "quality_score": {
    "d1": 5,
    "d2": 5,
    "d3": 4,
    "d4": 5,
    "d5": 5,
    "d6": 5,
    "d7": 4,
    "d8": 5,
    "avg": 4.75,
    "scored_by": "claude-code-8d",
    "scored_at": "2026-05-25",
    "methodology_version": "1.2"
  },
  "reviewer": "quality-review-agent",
  "last_reviewed": "2026-04-19",
  "reviewed": true,
  "generated_at": "2026-04-19",
  "image": {
    "alt": "An empty school hallway with a single backpack left on the floor, flat vector illustration, muted tones, no people."
  },
  "attribution": "Likelier — https://likelier.app",
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/",
  "support": "https://buymeacoffee.com/kgluszczyk?via=likelier&utm_content=api-fear-single",
  "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/school-bullying"
}