{
  "slug": "plane-crash",
  "question": "What are the odds of dying in a plane crash?",
  "category": "transport",
  "no_reliable_estimate": false,
  "perceived": {
    "description": "Flying is one of the most commonly cited phobias. In the Chapman Survey of American Fears, roughly one in four US adults reports being afraid or very afraid of flying in an airplane. That framing collapses \"dislike turbulence\" and \"avoid all flying\" into one bucket, but the headline is robust: flying feels much riskier than it is.\n",
    "rough_estimate": "~1 in 1,000 per flight feels about right to most people",
    "kind": "survey",
    "survey_source": {
      "title": "Chapman Survey of American Fears, Wave 8",
      "publisher": "Chapman University",
      "url": "https://www.chapman.edu/wilkinson/research-centers/babbie-center/survey-american-fears.aspx",
      "year": 2022
    }
  },
  "native": {
    "display": "~1 in 13,700,000 per flight",
    "numerator": 1,
    "denominator": 13700000,
    "unit": "per flight",
    "population": "global commercial aviation passengers",
    "exposures_per_year": 4
  },
  "normalized": {
    "lifetime_us_adult": 0.000017,
    "display": "1 in ~58,000 lifetime (US adult)",
    "log_value": -4.77,
    "assumptions": "Assumes ~4 commercial boardings per year for a typical US adult (BTS data for adults who fly, including connecting segments), 59 years of remaining adult life, constant risk per boarding (conservative vs the long-term safety trend).\n",
    "uncertainty": {
      "low": 0.000008,
      "high": 0.000035
    },
    "scope": "us_adult_lifetime"
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "url": "https://news.mit.edu/2024/study-flying-keeps-getting-safer-0807",
      "title": "Study: Flying keeps getting safer",
      "publisher": "MIT News / Arnold Barnett",
      "source_type": "peer_reviewed",
      "statistic": "1 fatality per 13.7 million passenger boardings (2018-2022 commercial aviation)",
      "excerpt": "\"The risk of a fatality from commercial air travel was 1 per every 13.7 million passenger boardings globally in the 2018-2022 period, a significant improvement from 1 per 7.9 million boardings in 2008-2017.\"\n",
      "source_date": "2024-08-01",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-11",
      "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20260411093610/https://news.mit.edu/2024/study-flying-keeps-getting-safer-0807",
      "calculation_notes": "Barnett's \"death risk per boarding\" is already the exact statistic we want as the native value. Normalized = 1 − (1 − p_flight)^(flights_per_year × years) ≈ p_flight × flights × years for small p. Using ~4 boardings/year and 59 years: 4 × 59 / 13,700,000 ≈ 1 in 58,000 lifetime.\n",
      "independence_note": "Barnett's MIT analysis pulls from IATA/ICAO commercial-aviation incident records plus passenger-boarding counts; overlaps with the NTSB accident database rather than being fully independent, though Barnett's per-boarding methodology is the distinctive analytical layer here.\n"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.ntsb.gov/safety/Pages/research.aspx",
      "title": "Statistical Reviews — US Civil Aviation Accident Statistics",
      "publisher": "National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB)",
      "source_type": "govt_report",
      "statistic": "NTSB publishes annual US civil aviation accident statistics covering Part 121, Part 135, and general aviation from 2005-2024",
      "excerpt": "\"Statistical Reviews: 2005-2024 Accident Statistics — a downloadable Excel file providing summary statistics for US civil aviation accidents from 2005 through 2024. US Civil Aviation Accident Dashboard: 2008-2024 — an interactive report accompanying the statistics tables.\"\n",
      "source_date": "2024-12-01",
      "source_accessed": "2026-04-26",
      "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20260403202813/https://www.ntsb.gov/safety/Pages/research.aspx",
      "calculation_notes": "The NTSB research page provides downloadable accident statistics and an interactive dashboard covering 2005-2024. Part 121 air carrier operations (passenger-seat configuration >9 seats) have a well-documented record of extremely low fatal accident rates, consistent with Barnett's per-boarding figure. Used as a corroborating institutional source rather than the primary number.\n",
      "independence_note": "NTSB and Barnett draw from overlapping aviation incident databases, so treat as partially dependent verification, not two fully independent estimates.\n"
    }
  ],
  "comparison_anchors": [
    {
      "label": "Death by lightning strike (lifetime, US)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.00000354
    },
    {
      "label": "Death in a car crash (lifetime, US)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.0108
    }
  ],
  "personal_factor_multipliers": [
    {
      "factor": "General / charter aviation vs commercial",
      "multiplier": 100,
      "notes": "NTSB annual statistics 2005-2024: general aviation (Part 91) fatality rate per flight hour is roughly 100× higher than Part 121 commercial air carrier operations. Charter (Part 135) sits between the two at ~10-20× commercial."
    },
    {
      "factor": "Developing-world carrier vs IATA Full Members",
      "multiplier": 14,
      "notes": "ICAO 2022 Safety Report: accident rate for non-IATA member carriers in Africa and parts of Asia was roughly 14× the global IATA member average on a per-departure basis (2017-2021 five-year window)."
    },
    {
      "factor": "Rear-cabin seat vs front-cabin (survivable crashes)",
      "multiplier": 0.6,
      "notes": "NTSB seat-position analysis of survivable US commercial accidents: passengers seated behind the wing had roughly 40% lower fatality rates than those in first class / forward cabin in crashes with survivors — multiplier ~0.6 for rear seating."
    },
    {
      "factor": "Age 65+ (evacuation in survivable crashes)",
      "multiplier": 1.8,
      "notes": "FAA Civil Aeromedical Institute and NTSB cabin-safety research show older passengers evacuate more slowly and sustain higher injury rates in survivable accidents; estimated 1.5-2× elevated fatality risk in the survivable-crash subset, though overall per-boarding risk remains small."
    }
  ],
  "short_label": "Plane crash",
  "myth_framing": "overrated",
  "outcome_severity": "fatal",
  "exposure_pattern": "recurring",
  "outcome_type": "death",
  "valence": "negative",
  "caveats": "Excludes private aviation, which has a meaningfully higher per-hour fatality rate. Also excludes major single-event anomalies (e.g., conflict zones, single-carrier outliers) which can dominate short windows but not long averages.\n",
  "quality_score": {
    "d1": 4,
    "d2": 4,
    "d3": 5,
    "d4": 4,
    "d5": 4,
    "d6": 4,
    "d7": 5,
    "d8": 3,
    "avg": 4.125,
    "scored_by": "claude-code-8d",
    "scored_at": "2026-05-25",
    "methodology_version": "1.2"
  },
  "reviewer": "likelier-seed",
  "last_reviewed": "2026-04-11",
  "reviewed": true,
  "generated_at": "2026-04-11",
  "image": {
    "alt": "A small paper airplane floating against a muted grey-blue sky, flat vector illustration."
  },
  "attribution": "Likelier — https://likelier.app",
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/",
  "support": "https://buymeacoffee.com/kgluszczyk?via=likelier&utm_content=api-fear-single",
  "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/plane-crash"
}